Wave of Terrorism In Islamic Countries-Background & Global Impact

While Pakistan is mourning the greatest ever massacre on its soil by the Taliban terrorists killing hundreds of school children in a daylight suicidal attack, 150 women were beheaded at Iraq by the Islamic State terrorist for not submitting to sexual slavery of their fighters. Irony is that while these gruesome incidents are not anything new under the fresh wave of blind violence and hatred being displayed by the Islamic Religious Extremist operating through their mercenaries in the greater Middle East. However, the intensity of this rage which now targets even women and children who were previously pardoned in these war within the Islamic countries is unprecedented. What allowed this change in attitudes towards these new heights of extremism? and how come the firebrand extremist Mullahs are getting away with selling this brand of intense hatred among the Muslim youth around the globe? is a question to ponder upon. The impact of this bloody trend may be far reaching and much beyond any calculated outcomes by the western world is my bet.

This new wave of terror, driving the Islamic extremist terror network run by independent yet interlinked groups in a modern world where communications are ever easier then before is a cause of disgust and surprise even to those conservative Muslims around the globe who sympathized earlier with the Jihadist causes. May it be Boko Haram in Nigeria, ISIS in Syria and Iraq, the Taliban in Pakistan or the various forms of this concept around the globe, this concept of ultra violent, inhuman and disgusting bloody attitudes is being sold and spread with impunity. Although its money which drives this mad machine but obtaining "ideological mercenaries" willing to blow themselves for a cause they believe in needs some solid grounds of motivation. It is definitely a "fallout" of something as sinister, as inhuman and as disgusting as this wave of Islamic extremist terror we are witnessing.

The reason for the surge in this Islamic extremist terrorism as per my understanding is largely due to a feeling of mistrust, suspicion and hatred towards the western world in general by the Muslims around the globe. The "capitalist greed" driven wars waged by the west on the Muslim countries staged by the western corporate-government alliance for "oil" and resources over false pretexts which were shamefully exposed (Iraq WMDs for example) led to the said feelings and emotions and rightly so. The western world realized the follies of their greedy corporate-government alliances and punished their public representatives in utilizing their respective democratic rights, however, it was too little too late with the damage being irreparable. Thousands of lost lives, millions of affected humans and a global tragedy as a result ignited the fire of hatred and revenge which was brewed for years. To top it all off, the west tried to sell their brand of democracy where it suited them to masses unfamiliar with the concept. They destroyed or tried to destroy the authoritarian Middle Eastern and African regimes but failed to install anything near their own brand of democracy as promised.

The western democracies tried introducing developed democratic ideals to the tribal societies still primitive in the developed world's concept of civilization and life styles. The result was the devastation which followed upsetting established welfare states and turning them into dust and blood as it stands today. The western script writers and their Middle Eastern partners initiating and fueling this complete mega cycle of events I am afraid knew the results, but choose to ignore as it was a perfect alibi for the western audience and their followers at Middle East. The western corporate-government alliance got what they came for at the political costs in their own countries but the Middle East was left torn and bleeding. The only states left intact are still monarchies and led by totalitarian regimes. So much for democracy at the Middle East. While the western public's intentions were honest and naive, their corporate business-government alliances used the same to sell the wars enforced on to Middle East in the name of freedom and justice led by the USA. They messed up big time, for this is the age of globalization where nationalities are merging and identities are in fusion. The Muslim world around the globe never got over this tragedy in essence. And this led the opportunist firebrand Mullahs to upbeat and sell their brand of horrific terror around the globe being unleashed by the Boko Harams, Talibans, ISIS or whatever religious fanatic names they have got misusing the very soul of Islam and its message of harmony and peace. Its like misusing the sincerity of the western public for freedom and democracy into selling them the wars in Middle East. The Mullahs are playing upon the same pure feelings of Muslims globally for fellow brethren Muslims suffering immensely in Middle East due to the aftermath of the western corporate-government waged wars.

This phenomenon is influencing the mosques of complete Muslim world including those in USA and Europe. Sensible Muslim clerics are trying hard to fight the undercurrents of Islamic extremist attitudes sold by wannabe Mullahs and the promises of sexual slaves and riches followed by heavens after death as a Jihadi. This distorted version of Islam has been made available to be sold due to reasons mentioned but the impact is not restricted to Middle East alone. A large number of fighters who jumped into this mess for the adrenaline rush are western nationals. Those out of them who realize the reality and want to return are either killed by the terrorist organizations they have joined or persecuted on return.

Intelligence services of regional powers with hegemonic designs or other vested interests are using these extremist terrorist forces for their own goals. These attitudes like the Indians financing Taliban targeting arch rivals Pakistan from Afghanistan in a war of hegemony and influence or vice versa is further strengthening these snakes which will ultimately "bite the hands which are feeding them". Its a cycle which began with the USA creating Afghan Jihad and selling the firebrand Islamist Jihadi agenda to the whole Muslim world in order to stop the Communist rise in the cold war. It worked superficially only to leave deep scars within these societies making them the breeding grounds for the terror being manifested today.

Anarchy might be the order of the day as the realist school of thought suggests as long as cooperation is being extracted. However if these issues are not addressed at grass root level and measures are not taken to heal these bleeding wounds, no counter terrorism strategy will work. There will be homegrown recruits available for these extremist elements till the time these issues are not acknowledged and addressed. The west needs to take onus and positively influence the future course of events which is an effort agreed but the magnitude of these efforts are required to broaden. Negative state level attitudes fueling these fires of hatred and extremism irrespective of religion and ethnicity need to be checked and curbed globally. Changing of diabolical attitudes and beliefs at all levels starting from the top is the only way forward if we want to prevail as humanity....                                                 

Impact of Islamic Sectarian Conflict On Muslim World

The essential fault lines fueling the fire of terror, discontent and violence which defines the middle east in general lies in the sectarian tensions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The nexus of this cycle of hatred originated centuries ago as a result of the succession wars for the Muslim Global Empire after the death of the third Muslim Caliph Uthman (Usman). However, the final thaw to originate this longest ever bloody sectarian conflict of the world began in the aftermath of the "Battle of Karbala" in Muharram 61 AH as per Islamic Calender or October 680. The massacre of the holy prophet Muhammad's (Peace be upon Him) last direct descendants by the forces of Yazid at Karbala, Iraq sew the seeds of the world's oldest and bloodiest sectarian conflict going on till date. Muslims were divided in two main sects of "Sunnis" who are in majority and "Shias" who are a minority in the aftermath of these "succession wars".

Modern day Iran, is the flag bearer of the "Shia" sect spread around the globe, while the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia proclaims the reins of "Sunni" majority sect of Muslims all over. The strategic geographical location of both these states and the centuries old feud for influence and power is what results in the quagmire known as the Islamic sectarian conflict with the greater middle east as its forward staging posts. The conflict till date have affected unaccountable Muslims globally while the flag bearers of both the sects fight on for their respective turfs of influence and vested interests led by respective religious leaders.

This conflict has given rise of various proxy/non state actors across the globe in general and in the middle east in particular. Depending upon the sectarian makeup of these proxies/non-state actors either Iran or KSA sponsors them in order to exert influence in the Muslim world. This covert war between Iran and KSA creates a security nightmare for smaller Muslim states and even bigger ones likes Pakistan as a point in case. Pakistan have lost hundreds of thousands of nationals in these bloody conflict between these two rival factions which continues to spread extremism and non tolerant behaviors.

The likes of Taliban and the most recent ISIS terror network thriving on sectarian based hatred while pursuing their own vested interests are the perfect example as to how, these terrorist organizations are using and abusing this century old sectarian rivalries. While these non-state but sometimes states sponsored organizations thrives on the the greater conflict between Iran and KSA, the greater middle east and its Muslim population continue to suffer and burn. Like in any conflict at the end of the day those are the civilians taking the major brunt of this bloody, mindless war of influence. This process of violence thus created many Frankenstein's too who are bringing in ultra extremist ideologies like those spread by the ISIS which are neither endorsed by the Iranian or the Saudi school of thought. However, the grooming of these fanatic outfits were made conducive and possible under the modern day Arab-Iran rivalry based on age old Muslim Sectarian conflict to gain influence in the greater middle east.

The broad spectrum of this conflict between rival sects led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran is massive and institutionally spread around the globe. The following of this nexus of hatred at both ends is extremely dedicated and highly organized. However, wittingly or unwittingly it has created a culture of extremism and hate which feeds and flourishes the global Islamist terror organizations like ISIS and Taliban, etc. It is clearly a never ending cycle of hatred, intolerance and extremism which will engulf the whole world if not institutionally analyzed and checked by both the original belligerents.

This core realization alone and measures to address the grave issues which emerged as a result of the age old sectarian conflict in the Muslim world may bring the kind of peace and prosperity in the greater middle east which may affect billions of lives in a positive manner. A reappraisal of the Arab-Iran relations is the first step towards any such development. The Iranian President Mr Hassan Rouhani taking the first step in this regard talking to group of editors at New York this very week called for "warmer" ties with Saudi Arabia. He said that "Saudi Arabia positions are getting closer and closer to us". He added that "if the differences between Iran and KSA are truly narrowing, the relationship with Saudi Arabia will grow closer".

This is a highly instrumental development which may lead to breaking the ice between the traditional rivals. The onus however lies on KSA to respond positively. There are diplomatic initiatives under the curtains to realize the grave issues at hand which results from this mutual rivalries and efforts seems to be in hand to address them. It may be the tip of the ice burg but as emphasized by the scribe, these States and their bilateral ties holds the keys to the prosperous and peaceful greater middle east.        

                   

Democratic Awakening At Pakistan- Latest On The Political Crisis

        "AN IDEA IS MORE POWERFUL THAN GUN"- LENIN

In an era ruled by the global corporate empires, where opinions are shaped through sponsored media with an agenda to gain material and strategic goals, the self proclaimed gods of our times are still unable to harness the minds which harbour ideas, which thinks, which judges. Being a tested trick, info-wars are still the favourite method to control the mass perception, but the advent of social media have made the job most difficult then ever for the managers to control the flow of information. This situation gives jump start to ideas which shape the destinies of nation-states in the modern age we live in. Ideas, which may be Utopian, but if holds the appeal and promises change, plays with the minds of populous and create mass political movements. Its always a dangerous game, which could go either way, but even then,the appeal of an idea promising change to certain tyranny or mass venality to a nation-state's indigenous population can topple fortified systems in an anarchy serving the selected few like the case is in Pakistan rite now. 

In a refreshing change to Pakistan's short political history where Military rule has dominated the better part, the Army has decided to stay out of the mess created by the bad governance of the civilian rulers. Army, however is taking all necessary pains and asserting them where they must to ensure that the use of violent force is avoided by both the state and the protesters. The Officer corps of the military are on the same page where they want to stay out of the governance but wants the civilian administration to perform their stated tasks. 

Pakistan Army believes that achieving synergy between the elements of power potential at Pakistan holds the key to move forward on the path of progress as stated by General Naeem Khalid Lodhi in the "Pakistan Army Green Book", latest edition of 2013 published a month ago in 2014 . The General is very clear in the definition of this thinking where he states these  four elements of national power as diplomacy, information, military and economics in essence. For the implementation framework of the desired synchronization or "to bell the cat" as he puts it in his paper the General has identified the all important TRIO  of  Judiciary, Administration and Police. working independent of each other, free of any political influences. Currently however, it is evident that all these three institutions are highly corrupt overlapping each other and simply lacks the capacity to perform. These institutions needs to perform on merit promoting justice and working efficiently. In the exact words of General Lodhi published in "the Pakistan Army Green Book", "the culture of my patwari(local revenue officail) , my SHO(local police chief) and my DCO (District administrator), has to go".   However, in reality for any such thing or "change" to materialize, a mass shift in the thinking patterns of Pakistanis from all the different walks of life and backgrounds must be revolutionized and synchronized towards the voluntary promotion of such a culture where justice and merit may thrive.

The "twin protests" at Pakistan led by Dr Tahir Ul Qadri and Imran Khan with a record sit-in in front of the Pakistani national parliament is doing exactly that. A mass awareness movement against the corrupt, anarchic system implemented at Pakistan has begun through these protests spreading across the country like fire. The dynamic leadership of the cleric scholar Dr Qadri and the glamorous appeal of Khan has mobilized both the patriotic conservatives and the major chunk of Pakistan's population i-e, its youth respectively. The idea has spread across the nation-state and have seen millions across the country turning out in political processions of these leaders demanding the desired change in the system, in turn turning the tables on Nawaz Sharif regime, which is clinging on to power only due to the support of the "corrupt vested interest group" whose mere survival is at stake if a meaningful, honest change does occur at Pakistan. International financial institutions with the USA in the lead are also highly comfortable with the corrupt regime of Nawaz Sharif whose tail can be twisted at their convenience. With the upcoming US military draw down and the US desire to make India it's protege at Afghanistan, Nawaz Sharif is their man. This would certainly not be the case if some one like Imran Khan forms the government, who holds the repute of a maverick and as per wiki leaks, does not submit to the US/western block influences. Hence, the support to the Nawaz Sharif regime by the USA by issuing statements in his favour is quite understandably explained. having said that, the internal political and power dynamics at the nuclear armed Islamic "deep state" is quite complex-ed where the US and the west but have only limited influence exercised through corporate media houses to propagate their agenda. However, the idea being spread and talked almost across the Islamic republic is so strong and powerful, that the age old method of shaping perceptions may be working on the western indigenous population and ethnic Nawaz Sharif and his allies followers but falling on deaf ears in majority of Pakistan itself.

The appeal of the idea of change in the current mess of a system Pakistan lives in is so persuasive, that any Pakistani with a patriotic heart and no where else to go, is subscribing to it. The support of the idea propagated by Dr Qadri and Imran Khan is growing dynamic and becoming the dominant public point of view. Through only such a mass shift in public attitude and support for the culture of change which promotes merit and justice, Pakistan may achieve freedom from the anarchy and chaos which presently defines its administration. Such a change can only be beneficial for the Pakistani society as a whole promoting a robust economy, portraying an honest image abroad and strengthening the ideological frontiers of Pakistan bringing about a positive conclusive change in the country. Only in such a Pakistan the desired synergy as propagated by the military can be achieved between the elements of national power potential through which this country may meet its due destiny and glory and will be able to ensure the conversion of the Pakistani national power potential into positively measurable outcomes. 

THE IDEA IS DEFINITELY PROVING TO BE MORE POWERFUL THAN GUNS ............................. .              

    

             

END GAMES- POLITICAL CRISIS IN PAKISTAN

As expected the ever powerful Pakistani Military walked in to save the day yet again for Pakistan. The incompetent Nawaz Sharif government camp failed to negotiate a political settlement with the twin protests of Imran Khan and Dr Tahir Ul Qadri. As predicted, the real brokers walked in the pavilion but only after the corrupt regime ruling the nuclear armed country requested the Chief of Army Staff to negotiate on their behalf. The Nawaz Sharif regime had no other option after ordering crack downs on these protests thrice to quell this issue in traditional third world style but  the Police Officers simply refused to move without specific written orders after the Sharif government stance to frame their kin in a similar move at Lahore resulting in the killing of 14 protesters and 90 injured including women and children. The written orders for such a crackdown by Nawaz Sharif means defying the moral grounds but more than that the clear cut warning from the Army to refrain from any such move after the state terrorism at Lahore stated above. Sharif brothers holds no moral authority in the face of election rigging and corruption charges leveled by the mass protests at Pakistan, concurred by clear cut majority of educated and aware Pakistanis. Under the circumstances  picking up a direct confrontation with the country's most powerful institution means Gallows for the Sharif Clan for charges ranging from murder to treason if tide now surging, throw them off the board. It's a battle of survival for Nawaz Sharif and his brand of politics in Pakistan where they were always above the Law of the land and thrived under the international concepts of "Neo Realism" where the global powers extract cooperation amid anarchy from the world and end justifies the means. Across the board accountability, as demanded by these protests at Pakistan means questions being raised on billions of US dollars which vanished in thin air filling the coffers of the Sharifs, Zardaris, Bhuttos and their brand of politicians at the expense of Pakistani public.

Inviting the Army may turn out to be the biggest blunder Nawaz Sharif committed in this battle of survival for his unholy empire. Nawaz has had the support of the western governments including UK and US but when it comes to his staunch support in the neighboring traditional rivals to Pakistan, India, by the Indian Nationalists, it stung the Army into disgust and they smelt treason. The Army is driven by the pulse of it's men who represents the middle classes of Pakistan and believe on merit and rule of Law above rest. These ideals are inscribed into them by the founding father of the nation, Mr Jinah, and for these ideals foremost they don't hesitate in laying their lives for defending the physical and ideological frontiers of the country. However, the Army realize for a fact that Nawaz Sharif and his cronies are the Frankenstein created by their predecessors to legitimize their dictatorship. For that reason alone Army is treading very carefully not to step on to any landmine in a situation where they are already committed in a "War Within" against the extremist forces spreading terror and lawlessness making Pakistan a terrorist heaven. Nawaz Sharif under pressure and capitalizing on his age old methods of give and take formula, ceded the foreign and defense policy to the Army. But the Army does not trust the words of Nawaz and rightly so considering his dubious credentials. In the meantime all the nepotistic characters who have their vested interests on stake in case of a system overhaul which is being demanded by the educated masses led by the middle class are pitching their forces to save Nawaz and Co. But as this scribe pointed in last three successive articles published on this blog, the broker of this political deadlock having the power to settle this clash of "Status quo Vs Rights" is the Pakistan Army headed by a patriotic man whose family laid lives for the country.

General Raheel Sharif, Chief of Pakistani Army is surely in a tight spot where he needs to resolve this issue in a way all parties are more or less on board. However, the bias of General Raheel will be determined by the pulse of the force he commands which gives him such mighty powers. The force which is essentially Pakistani Nationalist and Patriots. A force which clearly wants Pakistan to grow into an economically viable, fair and just country with equal rights for all. Idealistic views to many commentators and rightly so in this nepotistic system which defines Pakistan but the force General Raheel commands are idealists for they don't mind laying their lives and that of their kith and kin for their motherland. This Nationalistic ideology is the philosophy through which the military attains the moral power to meddle into the civilian politics and trusted by the educated and aware Pakistanis to include the workers and sympathizers of the ruling party too. Irrespective of the media wars and political maneuvering of the ruling elite, the decision and outcome of this political deadlock which the fragile Pakistani economy can no longer afford, Army will decide sooner then latter to end it all............question is for whose answers are being sorted out by the Army is, how to end it well?...........................          

          

WINDS OF CHANGE-II--POLITICAL CRISIS AT PAKISTAN

Again, I was there today at the democratic political mass protest at Islamabad, led by the cricket star turned politician Imran Khan and the religious scholar Dr Tahir Ul Qadri. The atmosphere at these mass protests can not be described in the words, but could only be sensed. The scenes were historic and moods were defiant in the protests now entering its 8/9th day yet the electricity in the crowds was clearly of highest voltage irrespective of the hot and highly humid weather. The participants at the twin protests are demanding a system overhaul in essence at Pakistan in the face of a society and government engulfed in nepotism and corruption. But the style of this demand is like never seen before in the history of Pakistan. The crowds there includes people of all ages but mostly youth in concurrence with the demographic statistics of Pakistan. They belonged to all the various classes of Pakistan from the very top to bottom. However, they all had one thing in common at both the protests, they wanted a true progressive change in the governance at Pakistan and restore their country into the dream that was once seen by Dr Allama Muhammad Iqbal and brought into reality under the able leadership of Muhammad Ali Jinah. It got lost from the death of Mr Muhammad Ali Jinah in the earliest year of Pakistan's inception after independence from the British colonial rule which he led against the major opposition of Hindu Indians.

Pakistan as it stands today is a typical third world corrupt autocracy where power lies with the richest and access to government is for sale. Anyone who has enough black money can buy his way to power, only to plunder national wealth in the name of development loans. How the system still survives? and still breathing? is owing to the complicated power dynamics of Pakistan, where the actual power is shared between the Politicians, Judiciary and Military led establishment. The first and the last stake holders are the one who are always in a tug of war where obviously the mightier wins at most. Since last seven years the politicians are sitting at the throne while this period saw Pakistan deteriorating into an abyss of troubles. National debt rose drastically while inflation hit rock bottom in an economy where Politicians were busy looking after each other's interest foremost. Mass corruption and mismanagement saw the kind of governance which led to Pakistani population's discontent in general. Under the scenario the voices of Imran Khan and Dr Tahir Ul Qadri emerged as the singular hope for the educated and aware masses while both these leaders masterfully capitalized on the bad governance decisions and mismanagement of the Nawaz Sharif led government while his younger brother's government at Punjab province murdered fourteen innocent male and mostly female workers of Dr Qadri in cold blood at Lahore.

This is a genuinely politically and democratically aware mass movement with hundred of thousands of volunteer crowds present to state their support with both these leaders. This is a movement for a true democratic change in the governance model where accountability is demanded for everyone with a transparent honest rule of Law and Justice for all which is seriously lacking in the present system. This is a move of Pakistani nationalist crowd who wants to see a free and fair system based on merit and honesty which enforces loyalty to the masses above every other allegiances for rulers.

Dr Tahir Ul Qadri and Imran Khan are playing with the public sentiments of disgust towards a system bogged in hypocrisy and nepotism promoting rampant corruption down to grass rout level starting from the very top. Imran khan masterfully challenged the international financial institutions with threats of civil disobedience and declared any further loan to the Nawaz Sharif regime as an "Odious Loan". The Nawaz Sharif government critically depends on local and foreign borrowing of Rs 6 billion per day in a fast depleting foreign reserves treasury. If the lenders confidence is shaken which it should be by the open challenge declaring all loans to the present regime not to be repaid if Imran Khan comes to power under the category of "Odious Loans" as per the international law, Nawaz Sharif's ability to financially manage the government will vanish in days.

Mr Khan played skillfully under the seasoned advisory of former foreign minister Shah Mehmood, with the anti Americans sentiments at Pakistan while he declared Nawaz Sharif a traitor for the US state department issued a statement in his support. Nawaz Sharif is fast loosing space on the power turf to the ever powerful Pakistani Military. The situation as analyzed by this scribe 11 days ago stands as it was stated, with the Pakistani Military emerging as the real broker of the political dead lock at Islamabad. The protests are spreading fast across the country but it remains peaceful and within democratic norms. However, this is exactly what the opposition to these protests is "Not". The lust of power, arrogance and greed are the motivations for the kind of people mostly who opposes any viable change in the prevailing corrupt system which serves their vested interests at best. They mock the present protests which is fast gaining momentum even against a campaign to malign this volunteer movement by the government.

 The government is but forced into inaction towards any crackdown on these mass protests which they crave dearly, but would bring upon them the wrath of the military boots if they dare. Besides that the senior police officers have refused to obey any such government orders to use force against the crowds at these movement without the orders being given in written form. This attitude of the civil servants is the response of the Sharif brothers autocratic hypocritical rule.

Nawaz Sharif regime is playing its last few cards to retain their hold on power with the charges of mass corruption and murder awaiting down the throne. Their families have already left the country and moved abroad where their huge actual assets lie accumulated through mega corruption in true Pakistani present political style plundering the national wealth with both hands. Pakistanis are tired of this system marred with the stink of malfeasance and injustice. They truly require a change to survive as a Nation State for which they are out there on the streets braving all odds. The momentum of this mass movement is building up by the day across the country in the face of a payola opposition threatening and intimidating these aspirants of change in this graft system.

Political fever is high on the beats of patriotic and political music in these protests with "dancing and chanting crowds". These are the definite winds of progressive change where masses gather daily for long hours including women, handicapped people and the elderly to young.

Whatever the specific or legal issues and its solutions being debated across the board for the resolution of this stand off and the role of different stake holders and their respective point of view, it is the beginning of the aspired change by these masses present at these protests and their families back home. The public sentiments will direct the outcome of this standoff at Islamabad with the Army sooner or latter forced to intervene. The Nawaz Sharif Clan and the system through which they rule, lacks the capacity to handle the upright demands of these crowds as spelled by their leaders Imran Khan  and Dr Qadri. They are demanding a system overhaul through constitutional amendments and electoral reforms with transparent form of government on modern established western democratic trends with across the board accountability. These demands threatens the very foundations of Pakistani political system in vogue based on partisanship. These demands can only be enforced through the kind of force visible in the eyes of these mass protesters. It has to be done now is the call and the air smells of a revolution. Time is ticking for the Nawaz Sharif regime and its cronies who are fast loosing nerves.....................                    

WINDS OF PROGRESSIVE CHANGE-POLITICAL CRISIS IN PAKISTAN

The public mood at the mass protest going on at Islamabad at both congregations led side by side by Imran Khan and Dr Tahir Ul Qadri can be best defined as proud, "festive" and highly energetic with approximately more than  "80%"  of "youth" as it's essential participants. People are dancing at the patriotic and party songs, praying with their fellow protesters while all aspiring to see a true democracy which gives them their due rights instead of a system at present which is based on status quo, feudalism and rampant corruption.

If the demography of Pakistan is studied in detail, the most interesting thing to note would be that Pakistan is population wise one of the world's youngest nation. As per the UN demographic statistics of Pakistan following is worthy to be noted :-

• Population: 186,703,573 (May 2014 est.)
• Growth rate: 1.49% (2014 est.)

Pakistan is the sixth biggest nation of the world today with more than "60%" of its population ranging between age 15-64 (UN survey of 2011) . With these statistics and crowds as young as teen age boys in thousands not even eligible to vote to men and women in their thirties and forties forming more than 80% of the voluntarily gathered protesters at these demonstrations amounting to hundreds of thousands in total should be a sign for the thinking minds for what holds the future for Pakistan.

Pakistan is a country rich with mineral resources like 642 billion dollars gold reserves at Reko Diq and numerous other riches, also possessing a geopolitical location which is unique and precious to the global power dynamics of Euro-Asia region in general and Central and South Asia in particular. The immense "Punishment Taking Ability" of Pakistan has defied all sinister clandestine moves by the enemies of the Pakistani state to disintegrate her. Pakistan possesses a nuclear armed strategic forces along with  formidable conventional defence forces meeting up to all challenges thrown at them, may it be foreign or domestic. With this amazing potential, the rulers of Pakistan, as they are today lack the capacity to harness these vast amounts of resources at their disposal, but are only busy filling their own coffers with shady deals and taking turns at the power corridors, may it be the military dictators, their created dummies cum Frankenstein  like Nawaz Sharif and Co and the hijackers of Pakistan People's Party or the Political Mullahs selling their respective brands of religion . The youth of Pakistan is out demanding an end to this quagmire and wants to see the rule of Law and easy access to Justice through valid constitutional reforms in a system based on "might is right" and downright disgusting acceptance of the rampant corruption prevailing in the Pakistani society taking it as routine business. What's odious to know is the obnoxious arguments of the seemingly educated elite enjoying a leisure life going with their shortsighted version that Pakistan should allow this business as usual as it suits their vested interests or fake political ideals.

The demand at Islamabad by hundreds of thousands joining these protests is to see an end to the sick system they live in with a vibrant and progressive democracy as it prevails in Europe and America. Whereas implementation of the same may not be ideal by obvious standards by critiques but at least it would be the beginning of the end of the sluggish, corrupt and rotten system currently prevailing in Pakistan.

Nawaz Sharif and Co have decided to defy any real change to the venal system they are running and at best brush these protests under the carpet with the ongoing media war they are waging to prove that the situation is nothing more then ordinary. The Nawaz Sharif and co even collectively are unable to gather such a crowd as that at Islamabad or anything near this in the support of their government. The Elections which brought them to power are highly controversial with millions of bogus votes proven through video and documentary evidence. The real supporters of Nawaz Clan are the padded lot of Pakistan who have either adopted or accepted the foul play known as the way of life at Pakistan. "Such attitudes and practices are the basis of bringing a nefarious name for Pakistan abroad and the real hurdle to any progress domestically".

From where Pakistan stands today with its major population demanding a change to the unprincipled system lacking any real accountability, in a peaceful, democratic manner out on the roads of Islamabad, things are only expected to get better, may it takes time and further efforts as such. What's heartening to note is that Pakistanis from all walks of life including handicapped citizens and those carrying their infants in their arms are out there at the twin protests at Islamabad and support the change they desire for a better, democratic and prosperous Pakistan for them and their generations to come. They don't believe in the current rotten system they are living in and do not for an instant see it as the Pakistan their grandparents shed their blood for. They are not willing to wait any further and sit in a docile manner expecting this change in the system and way of life they seek at Pakistan to happen itself but are out on the roads demanding a "free fair Pakistan".............. These are the "Winds of Progressive Change" here at Pakistan for good and for the better...... This is not about Imran Khan, Tahir Ul Qadri or Nawaz Sharif in the end, it is about the "idea of free and fair democratic Pakistan".    

                      

POLITICAL STORM RISING IN PAKISTAN-WHAT HOLDS THE FUTURE

Dr Tahir Ul Qadri (TUQ), while addressing the charged crowd of thousands of his die hard supporters at Lahore today announced to join forces with Imran Khan (IK) and march to the capitol Islamabad to bring down the Sharif Government on the country's independence day, i-e, August 14. With this latest development the Sharif Clan is visibly in thick soup, if it was not already. With the populous support of Imran Khan and the intransigent followers of TUQ joining hands its a perfect recipe of disaster for Nawaz Sharif and Co. The Pakistani political system is based on democracy which is flawed and corrupted in essence. TUQ is vowing is for this system's overhaul, while IK wants the end of present government and take over power. The motives and inspirations of both these leaders and affiliated parties are positive and pro democratic. Nawaz Sharif (NS) and his brand of politicians are no doubt sincere to the country and wants to see it thrive, but utterly lacks the capacity to do so while they continue to govern with the ideology of status quo and politics of intimidation. Nawaz Sharif government consists of his lackeys who ultimately lacks the competence to run their various portfolios as they don't have the skill sets required to do so. Controversial development projects sans transparency bypassing regulations, continued power crises, rising inflation and high sounded promises unfulfilled marks the fourteen months of NS govt in power. IK have been asking for a judicial probe into the alleged elections rigging since an year now, but NS choose to block all ways leading to any such probe. The high handed attitude of NS's brother Shahbaz Sharif governing the biggest province of Punjab in handling the followers of TUQ and killing of the same couple of months ago at Lahore asked for the storm, brewing rite now against the government. The way the NS govt and his kitchen cabinet members dealt with the aftermath of the TUQ workers killings and IK's upcoming protests is downright inefficient, half-witted, rash and idiotic to say the least.

NS government in its visible distress has already enacted article 245 of the constitution and handed over the capitol's security and law and order to the Army. If precedence means anything and to the Pakistani military it always does, the Army was ordered to remain neutral last month when TUQ arrived at Pakistan and NS government shut down the complete country to stop his welcome by the followers of the religious scholar. A repeat of the same shut down at much larger scale is in place at Punjab in particular and whole of Pakistan in general as the scribe write these lines.

In the highly charged political scenario where would this storm lead? is depended on the way the NS govt handles the situation. However, thus far the handling of the situation by the NS govt has been best described above. With this background the situation may get violent while NS and Co uses the Police to manhandle the masses and shed indiscriminate blood of the innocent political workers yet again in their arrogance. TUQ is also calling for blood, "an eye for an eye" is the call he gave his followers today, who were asked by him to fight till death till the fall of the NS clan and his brand of the politics. This whole quagmire is a bit too much to handle for NS and his advisers who are essentially responsible to bring things up to such an alarming situation to begin with. NS lacks the capacity to handle this and likewise crises as expected out a leader of international stature required to run a troubled state such as Pakistan. He has failed in the past and its "de ja voe' " for him and his party yet again it seems.

While the situation is expected to be worsened by all standards in coming 72 hours, both IK or TUQ do not have a constitutional plan to resolve the issues peacefully less NS resigns from power himself and calls for elections. NS is never going to do this because of two basic reasons, foremost of which is that he is an ego maniac who can be best described as such and confirmed as that by his personal staff. Secondly if it comes to that he would love to be labeled as a political martyr while leaving the corridors of power himself is a possibility no way near reality in his case. Only force capable of extracting this resign however and making Sharif a political martyr is the Pakistani Army like they did in the past. In the meanwhile NS government's plan is to act as if everything is normal and its business as usual while they are celebrating the upcoming independence day already. In a bizarre move as such, the govt announced the Armed Forces ceremonial parade on 14 August at Islamabad directly coinciding with the political protests of Ik and now TUQ. To their shame the Army refused bluntly saying  such parades are held on March 23rd that is the Pakistan day and otherwise the Army is already busy fighting a "war within" with enemies both domestic and foreign. However, the Army obliged the NS govt by agreeing to perform an independence parade at the parliament house of a smaller scale. In yet another much more controversial move, NS govt decided to handover the Capitol's law and order to the Army. This further alienated the government while more and more political parties are joining forces with IK and TUQ......

In this backdrop, the Army commanders meet on the morning of August 11 to overview the situation and likely decide their reaction in case the law and order situation in the country gets out of hand and anarchy threatens the country's very coherence providing an opportunity to the enemies of Pakistani state to strike the national integration. Under any such scenario the Army will be forced to act and even arrest the prime minister if circumstances dictates and the same article 245 enacted by NS authorizes the Army to do so constitutionally. It would be in any case a wise action considering the sentiments of the Pakistani population and the mood out there on the streets. Likewise, Army may be forced to arrest IK and TUQ if internal security situation worsens. As always the broker of the upcoming political deadlock will be the Pakistani Military which always acts in concurrence with the aspirations of Pakistani population in general. Next 72 hours and the developments which takes place in them will dictate the Pakistan Army's response to the situation. NS govt will use all resources at its disposal to stop/ fail the political movement of IK and TUQ which is most likely to swell into mindless violence and civil disobedience as a result of the use of unnecessary force by the govt. Army is expected to stay neutral and silent spectator for now till the situation warrants them to act......... What's for sure about to happen is that things are about to get messy here at Pakistan, while the Army waits and see as where to strike and when? while the Pakistan Army this time around realize that martial law is not the way forward and only corruption free democracy is the need of the hour for Pakistan. However, the Military is the only one true power broker in this country still........ And their mood is certainly grim.....while NS camp is very much susceptible to crack from within under intense upcoming pressure...... On the contrary if they are able to sustain it, they will survive this storm....                                        

WILL PAKISTAN EVER ATTACK ISRAEL

There are very few States in the world today who do not recognize Israel as a Country and it's right to exist as a State. There is but only one, Nuclear Armed State which openly proclaims this, and that is Pakistan. In fact, Israel is the only country in the world Pakistan refuses to acknowledge and does not allow it's nationals to travel to the same. The basis of this unique situation are historic, religious and humanitarian. The Pakistani population in general views Israel as an apartheid regime created by the western world to keep dagger drawn at the oil rich middle east while the Zionist regime is given a free hand with moral and material support to keep on conducting half a century old systematic genocide of the indigenous population in the greatest land grab in the history after the genocide of the Red Indians and the Aboriginals by the whites.

What makes this scenario highly interesting is the fact that the Israelis appreciates the Pakistani position to be fatally detrimental in a case they are pitched up against the whole Muslim world. The only Muslim country with Nuclear Arsenal and the means to target Israel is Pakistan and keeping the same at bay is hence fundamental to the Israeli designs in the greater middle eastern region. this is what's at play, when the Zionist regime supports the enemies of Pakistan in waging proxy wars and clandestine operations within Pakistan to internally destabilize the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in particular and the whole middle eastern region in general. Pakistan would only look outwards if allowed to attain internal peace. India supported by Israel won't ever permit that through controlling the domestic unrest at Pakistan fulled by the Indian supported clandestine operations and issues like promotion of systematic corruption at Islamabad and designs to turn Pakistan into a dessert by the water terrorism by India. The Indian hegemonic designs and Pakistan as it's only potent adversary in the region makes India the perfect client state for Israel to keep the Pakistanis at bay by keeping them busy in fire fighting ignited by the Israeli-Indo nexus of terror. Now let's face it, that the domestic power dynamics of Pakistan based on exploiting religion, sect, ethnicity and tribal code of loyalties is in direct support to all the clandestine operations launched to destabilize the country. Any wise enemy of Pakistan having the means and will to research and exploit these stated fault lines can easily do so, and the Israeli wisdom with Indian shrewdness is what's at play here too. So that is Israeli game plan in association with India to keep Pakistan busy in internal strife and keep hostage it's progress and prosperity which may lead to a collective conscious by Pakistan to take on Israel by all means possible, may it be military ones. This MOSSAD-RAW alliance is actively engaged in an anti Pakistan clandestine black ops to destabilize the nuclear armed Islamic Republic with the ultimate goal to neutralize the nuclear potential of the country with the Afghani Intelligence KHAD on board now.

Would this Israeli-Indian unholy alliance succeed in attaining its objective is the question needs to be answered first. Let's see, they are trying with all their might and the resources of the Global Zionist Empire at their disposal ever since the Cold War ended and the "Pressler Amendments" by the US under the AIPAC auspices opened the war to neutralize the Pakistani nuclear capabilities. The global corporate media termed and projected the Pakistani nuclear capability as the "Islamic Bomb" which is at the risk of falling into the hands of the Islamic Extremists any time. The Israelis practically tried to attack the Pakistani Nuclear Research facility through the Indian soil only to be deterred by the timely detection by the Pakistani Intelligence and a stern warning to the Indians that any move as such may result in mutual annihilation and a nuclear holocaust. The Israeli Air Force war planes were thus not accorded clearance to launch such a strike while they were ready to attack Pakistan from the Indian Air Force Base at the Indian Held Kashmir. The failure to openly engage Pakistan forced the Israelis to support the Indians in launching a clandestine war against Pakistan through the comprehensive human intelligence network of India at Pakistan to maintain instability in Pakistan while ultimately achieving the objective to de nuke Pakistan. This war has been able to achieve only the earlier stated goal of creating instability at Pakistan but that too with limited effects. The clandestine war to destabilize Pakistan has been countered by the Pakistani Armed Forces, Intelligence agencies and above all by the Pakistani population who fails to submit to the tactics of terror targeting the integration of their country. The indiscriminate terrorist acts of violence against the general population has seen the resolve of the Pakistani public grow while amazing the world in general and the enemies of Pakistan in particular on the mammoth "punishment taking ability" of the Pakistanis who are willing to sacrifice even more with every passing act of cowardice may it be by the "dogs of hell" as they call the Pakistani Taliban funded by the Indian RAW or other "international ideological mercenaries" hired by the Indo-Zionist alliance. Pakistanis tolerate all this and fight back while remaining steadfast only to "strike back" at an appropriate place and time while maintaining fool proof security of their nuclear arsenal which is increasing in strength and technology every passing day along-with its delivery systems.

Should this scare the Israelis or not is the next question in line. While Israel continues its clandestine war against Pakistani Nuclear Capability on the Indian shoulders with the US witnessing as mere silent spectator while their bases at Afghanistan are used for the clandestine operations by Israeli Mossad in this regard. May it be the US wish to keep Pakistan mum for their own reasons or the deeply ingressed Zionist influence at Washington, in either case US knows that till such time, the Pakistanis are kept busy in fire fighting domestically, they won't look outwards. However, at the same time the Israelis know this for a fact that while Pakistan will never support Iran in an all out manner in case of foreign aggression, the same does not hold true for Suadia Arabia where lies the Muslim holy site of "Kaaba". The Pakistanis have sworn and are under agreement to defend Kaaba at all costs. The only way Pakistan will use it's total military might including the Strategic Forces against any party internationally other than India will be an aggressor targeting the Kaaba. So the equation "for now" is very simple, keep away from the kingdom of Suadia Arabia which is in any case under the heavy influence of the USA to avoid a direct confrontation with Pakistan. The Suadis also acknowledges this fact while they openly proclaims to posses an "Atomic Bomb", which when asked lies where?, is dramatically answered by them as "where else but Pakistan"...............

To conclude I must quote the well established reality of International Relations, where the only thing certain, is the uncertainty of events and it's repercussions. A scenario where the House of Saud is either ousted or forced to act by the fear of the same against the Israeli aggression and genocide they are conducting on to the Palestinians, the tables will turn for sure. Any direct military confrontation between Israel and Suadia Arabia and Co at the Middle East will automatically drag the Pakistanis in the latter's camp if the Israelis decide to target either Makkah or Madina. And with the Pakistanis comes along the Pakistan's Strategic Armed Forces and all three services pitched against the Israeli Defence Forces, the only formidable match of the latter around the globe.................... The Game Continues.................                                                        

The Future of Terrorism In Pakistan-External Impacts

The Pakistani Taliban in particular the Mehsud faction have launched latest series of their terror strike on the Pakistani Public Installations, opportunity military and other soft targets as a revenge of the killing of their leader Hakim Ullah Mehsud in a US drone strike late last year. The Islamist extremist of Central Asia and Middle East origins are actively on board in this latest offensive in accordance with the past providing both the financial and manpower resources. It is also a fallout of the reluctant and cautious approach in handling the problem where the Pakistani military is playing the bad cop and the Nawaz Sharif government acting the good cop. The lack of political resolve in launching a decisive nation wide operation to cleanse this cancer of terrorism is evidently lacking with the Nawaz Sharif administration in charge. It's not as if the Pakistani security forces has the potential to achieve a cent per cent success in the aftermath of any such operation as the enemies are not beyond but within. However, any such operation will at best send the rats back to their sewers only to strike back in the darkness of the night, but it is that darkness which bothers the Nawaz regime. The Pakistani civilian government ascertains themselves in not a position to handle the political and economic mayhem which will result after hitting the bee hive as they see it. The Pakistani military is anxious to strike hard and avenge their fallen comrades which is in the larger interest for the Pakistani state security scenario. The regional and international stake holders are demanding to see some potent action to put the Pakistani house in order. The hostile segments to Pakistani state like the Afghan intelligence KHAD backed by the Indian RAW are consciously supporting the terror attacks in Pakistan owing to their own vested interests. A destabilized nuclear armed Pakistan is not in the interest of any nation globally. But a stabilized Pakistan properly utilizing her power potential would be the last wish of those fueling the fire at Pakistan. The design it seems is to present a scenario where Pakistan is kept hostage to the ongoing insurgency for foreseeable future while the hegemony of the neighboring India grows in influence and strength fast becoming a regional counterweight to China.

Pakistanis are most effectively tasting their own medicine when it comes to the onslaught brought upon to them by their own created militant networks originally targeting the Indian held Kashmir. After the all powerful dictator Pervez Musharraf took a U turn on the decades old Kashmir policy of Pakistan under the US pressure, the "Mujaheddin" created by the Pakistani security establishment for the "Kashmir Jihad" tuned into "International Ideological Mercenaries". These mercenaries are now up for hiring to the highest bidder, and in essence haunting their creators as Frankenstein. These same mercenaries are active in the People's Republic of China, particularly in the largest province of Xinjiang which borders not only Pakistan, but also Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and India. The strategic narrative of these proxy operations through the said "Islamic Ideological Mercenaries" in itself brings out the deductions to a thinking mind.

The province of Xinjiang at China borders eight different countries and hence provides China with eight different levers of exerting physical pressure to her neighbours which include India, with whom they have fought an all out war already. In this entire part of the world, Pakistan is the strongest ally Chinese could ever count on and hence the Sino-Pak bilateral ties are defined as "deeper than the seas". Chinese growth thus far seems to know no bounds practically worrying the current global powers of the west who have adopted India as a foster child being prepared to save them from the wrath of the Chinese global dominance. In this backdrop, the terror organizations of Pakistan and their mercenary capabilities are a dream come true for those who wants to keep the Chinese rise in a check while affording India the time and space to match the Chinese strength.

The Pakistani extremist groups are flourishing because of the inefficiency of the Pakistani administration to begin with going further to factors like foreign direct and indirect funding in particular at Afghanistan as handling grounds and lack of international joint mechanism to counter this onslaught.

Until there is an International Counter Intelligence network implemented by essentially China, Pakistan and the Central Asian Republics with the Russian blessings on ground, this cancer will keep on spreading. At the same time, some sense needs to talked into the Indians, who are playing with the fire not realizing the fact that the same can burn themselves in future too. If the Pakistanis under the Chinese auspices secretly decides to rehire the services of these "ideological mercenaries" and play tit for tat with the Indians to begin with, not only the earlier have much more potential but also experience to fight such a proxy war. In such a case these "Islamic Ideological Mercenaries" will find it an absolute pleasure to fight under the flag of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the only nuclear armed Muslim country with the strongest military among them all. India and Co under such a scenario won't last ten months keeping in view it's economy and demography compared to the more than a decade of punishment Pakistan has absorbed and continues to do so. China is also strong enough to sustain the mercenary assault, but if they decides to pay back in kind, the very integration of India would be at stake. The change in Russian moods and allegiances under the constantly and fast changing power dynamics of Asia after the Ukraine/Crimea episode, may also not favour India and Co like times of the past.

Unless all the Asian powers are willing to act together for the combined prosperous future of the biggest/most populous continent on the globe, the Pakistani terror network will spread systematically destroying everything in its influence keeping Asia busy in firefighting rather enjoying the perks of their enormous global potential. Peace is the only way forward...............................or else.........                                   

WHATS'S IN THE BAG-MAY 11, 2014

While the major media attention is diverged towards the tussle going on between the Geo/Jang media group and the Pakistani military establishment, there is a storm brewing in a different horizon. Two days from now, Imran Khan and Dr Tahir ul Qadri are leading the phase II of the public movement started by the latter to seek the direly needed constitutional reforms, putting a cap on the malpractices in a fractured society called Pakistan. Last time round, the show proved to be nerve wrecking for the PPP government, but the flexibility and shrewdness of Asif Ali Zardari and Co, averted the greatest chance Pakistan ever had to break the shackles of a dysfunctional system serving the interest of select few. The previous Chief Justice of Pakistan, Chaudhry Iftikhar Ahmad played the pivotal role in support of the Zardari regime by issuing an arrest warrant of PPP Prime Minister Raja Perwaiz Ashraf in a billion rupees power scam during the protest. This cooled down the protest, which was incomplete anyway after the refusal of "Imran Khan" to join forces with Dr Qadri while he wanted to try doing it the legal cum supposedly rite way. The election rigging, particularly in Punjab and places at Baluchistan and Sindh that followed, and the deliberate delays to address these issues by the Judiciary even after an year, forced Mr Khan to join hands with Dr Qadri this time round.

Followers of Dr Qadri are the affluent middle class of Pakistan and those who are linked with his religious preaching network. There was no cause of civil unrest therefore last time round, while Dr Qadri was also careful not to cross the "Red Line" being aware that he lacked the requisite force and to avoid bloodshed. But the followers of Imran Khan include the populous youth of Pakistan, which is emotionally charged and can cause a revolution if required by storming the government infrastructure. Both these cadres of society are coming together this time at the Islamabad Constitutional Avenue to demand the most needed constitutional amendments promulgating an end to injustice and inequality or at least a start of the same.

Under the circumstances, the most likely potent power segment deciding the outcome of the mass protest planned on May 11, would be the Pakistan Army. How and why is obvious under the reality check at Pakistani politics, counter arguments are just for the sake of arguments.

The most interesting analysis of the situation is to appreciate the role Army would play under the pre and post May 11 scenario. Pre game is set as being alleged by the government circles and their allies , where the ISI, is helping both the popular leaders to gain momentum. But these allegations may it be true to an extent still subsides under the ill performance of the government for the first year after promising the public, loads more in the poll for the initial months in power. Power/Electricity shortages in the country and the rampant terrorism are the leading causes of prevailing unrest. The Sharif government went back on its pledges they made in the exuberance towards coming to the power corridors of Pakistan. They managed that, but are unable to deliver on their promises rather gave an all together new time frame spread over a decade it seems. The Pakistan Army realizes and wants to maintain a functional democracy in the country for the larger benefit of the state. But the rigidness of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in certain matters are affecting the civil-military relations like the Musharraf case and many more issues, causing an uneasy friction between the Sharif government and the military leadership which assesses the pulse of the Army Juniors commanders and are forced to act accordingly. The bizarre drama being played by the Indian backed Jang/Geo group against the military establishment and its premier intelligence outfit, the ISI is causing huge damage to the Nawaz Sharif government's repute among the vast ranks of the Army because of the obvious lack of action against the  Jang/Geo media group. The appointment of blue eyed zombies and the resultant corruption cries murder being read by the resourceful Army Officers. Nawaz Sharif wants a Turkish styled democracy and prosecution of the military officers involved in the so called de railing of the democracy in the past. Reality check, Pakistan and its democracy viz a viz its performance is far from anything the Turks achieved and displayed with pride before taking on the Turkish Armed Forces officers. The Turkish people supported their democratic government in the cause after they practically benefited from the performance of their democratic government. Whereas, at Pakistan, its all together a different ball game. Inept and bad governance is top of the public nuisance issues besides nepotism, corruption and injustice due to either capacity problems or ill intentions of the ruling elite. Yes Sir Mr Prime Minister, we are no Turkey....not as yet at least.

The Pakistan Army wants just that, what the masses demand, an end to the unjust system which lacks accountability of the powerful lot and in the garb "regain the grounds lost" towards the end of Musharraf regime in the power dynamics of Pakistan.

If Imran Khan decides to go violent in case of an eventuality which is extremely possible if a clash between the protesters and government takes place at Islamabad, or if he is unable to command the emotional youth, there are all the likely chances of an emergency being declared at the Capital and surrounding areas by the government with Army taking over the capital. It is assessed by this scribe that in such a scenario the Army won't take over power but will regain their lost grounds in the power dynamics of the country they lost to the Judiciary and part civilian government at the end of Musharraf regime and would be able to bend the stiff neck of Mr Sharif. For the masses, if they are successful in maintaining their peaceful protest and paralyze the capital for a week or so as planned. The government will have to budge and agree to serious constitutional reforms to include electoral reforms. In all as I see it, and agree with my respected friend Raja Junaid Nasir Khan, it the "beginning of the end" of the Sharif clan and his brand of politics in Pakistan......................  

            

US Forces Withdrawal From Afghanistan-Impact On The Region-II

With the Afghan Elections well underway, the US hopes for a smooth political transition on the Afghan domestic front while at the same time, extricate it's forces with minimum amount of nuisance. Taliban on the other hand are waiting with the time at their side for the same to happen, after which they hope to regain the lost grounds post 2001. Whether the Afghan Security Forces, trained and equipped by the US is capable to tackle the impending scenario is highly doubtful due to obvious reasons. It would take lot more time and beating for the Afghan Security Forces to achieve the desired standards expected out of any national level regular armed force, capable of discharging assigned/expected responsibility. In case of Afghanistan, it's too much of an ask from the Afghan National Army and affiliated forces, if a pragmatic overview is taken. Political institutions of Afghanistan is far off from maturity and requires constant support of the international community to flourish, if at all it does.

US administration is honour bound with the pledge Obama made to the American Public and withdraw their Forces from Afghanistan in this year. However, the US after loosing trillions of dollars in the Afghan war expenses and facing the political baggage which comes with the loss of men and material in the said war effort, doesn't find it feasible to just abandon the whole cause. After all, Afghanistan does constitute to be the gateway to the energy and mineral rich corridors of the Central Asian Republics. Maintaining a respected presence at Afghanistan thus, holds the key to the US global dominance in present times and those to follow. Pakistan on the other side, is yet another key player in the region. Land locked Afghanistan's easiest access to the warm sea waters are afforded by Pakistan. The Pakistani military strongly holds the policy and implementation cards when it comes to their foreign policy towards Afghanistan. Pakistani Intelligence (ISI) also has strong influences on the Afghan Taliban leadership whom they created alongside the American CIA in the Cold War era to beat the Soviets, which they did. In the aftermath of Soviet disintegration, the US abandoned the region leaving a huge space, which had to be occupied. ISI did just that and maintained a semblance of control over the world's largest "ideological mercenary force" created and trained by the joint American-Pakistani collaboration. However, for part abandoning the Afghan Jihad after the demise of USSR which led to an Afghan civil war among the proxies, and part the extremist ideology fed to the "Mujaheddin" for the sacred "Jihad" by the ISI_CIA trainers, USA for the Taliban is now the "infidel power", which must be fought against. Taliban are no one else but those two generations of Mujaheddin, which were regrouped to form a singular power by the ISI in order to bring an end the bloody Afghan civil war post Soviet withdrawal. The formulation and support of the Taliban was a necessary evil for Pakistan, which was the singular most affected country suffering from the civil war at Afghanistan after the US abandoned the region. A force had to be created which could bring an end to the civil war while stop the influx of record refugees into Pakistan, affecting its economy and livelihood. Pakistanis did just that and brought the Taliban to the power "ruins" of Kabul, as they stood. 2001 US led invasion brought an end to that, but ISI held its influence over the Taliban who had strong business interests from and within Pakistan generating funds for the leaders and the organization.

Pakistani military's stubbornness in response to the US led efforts to isolate the Afghan Taliban is reminiscent of the earlier's fears of the US behaviour in post Cold War era. At the same time, the Pakistani military views an Indian influenced government at Kabul and the US-Indian coalition in the regional perspective, as a serious security threat.

Without the Pakistanis on board, the US is looking at a doomsday scenario, where India alone is not capable to counter the Pakistani influences at Afghanistan due to the geopolitical factors, such as the Chinese deep rooted partnership with Pakistan and both the country's hostile history with India.

The US needed to address these issues with Pakistan, for a face saving, if not entirely successful US forces withdrawal from Afghanistan in the current year. The US decided to pacify the military at Pakistan by offering them the military hardware, the US will be leaving behind. For a cash and hence equipment starved military, this offer was too good to resist. US risked annoying the Indians which they did, by this equipment transfer, which is reportedly well underway. The Pakistanis are already well trained on the US military hardware and posses strong maintenance and operational capabilities of the new technologies being inducted through the said US offer. But the trillion dollar question is, "what does the US gets in the bargain"?. ........... About everything the US desired it looks like. Foremost, on the US wishlist it seems is the demand that the Pakistani ISI will keep a leash on the Taliban during both pre and post US Forces withdrawal. The US also wants the Pakistani military to seek Taliban participation in the Afghan democratic governance which is frankly too much of an ask. The US will keep on operating from Pakistan and support those bases which will remain at Afghanistan. Pakistan is expected to support the democratic government at Kabul while try not to interfere in the Afghan internal affairs. The acceptance of the US military hardware deal and the release of the latest tranche of the "Coalition Support Fund" to Pakistan signifies the agreement thus sealed.

A stable Afghanistan is in the interest of Pakistan, is the realization both at the Pakistani military and civilian power corridors. However to achieve the same would be a question of time, and dedicated effort by essentially the Pakistani Security Establishment in partnership with its Allies. This is a complex maze of numerous red lines, which need never be crossed. If achieved successfully by the collaboration of "all the stake holders", the result could well be, a new chapter in the regional and global history upon which the subsequent generations will take pride in reading..........................................                                      

HUNTING FRANKENSTEIN II - The Way To Go Forward.........

The Pakistani ruling politicians are finally forced to speak up against the Pakistani militants they are inherently afraid of, in particular the Talibans. For them, it is about the politics of the Nawaz Sharif administration's spearheaded peace talks supported by the various political parties like Imran Khan's PTI and the fundamentalist Jammat e Islami. The war of words continue amidst the blowing limbs of the Pakistani population in a wave of terror unleashed by the Talibans in order to attain political leverage. Many such incidents are facilitated by vested domestic and international interests not in favour of any peace accord with Talibans. The Pakistani Security Forces are silently, but precisely taking on the terrorists of Taliban and Al-Qaeeda with smart surgical aerial strikes based upon deliberate and confirmed human intelligence avoiding the collateral damage, hence the political baggage associated with it. The US drone strikes are on sharp decline, as the active role is now being taken over by those, who should have been doing it originally. The credit here is due to the Pakistani military and civilian leadership for taking up responsibility where it was long due. However, this conflict is far beyond the art and science of warfare. This war is being fought in a scenario, which is highly complex and not at all just another lesson from military history. The canvas of this war is spread over combat, social, political and most of all economic background.

Let us state and analyze couple of hidden facts from the outset :-

 For any insurgent movement to be run continuously, irrespective of strong "ideological mercenaries" availability, material support in the form of logistics and hard cash is critical. To maintain a smooth cash flow, the Taliban not only rely upon the foreign sources sympathetic to their cause (for reasons of their own), but also maintain a strong business racket being operated from Pakistan and UAE. This racket is run by mostly Mehsud and also by few other tribesmen of the Pakistani North West tribal belt. The operation is spread over a vast geographical Land and sea route starting from Central Asian Republic, Afghanistan, Pakistani port city of Karachi, Dubai and the middle east. The businesses ranges a wide variety of trades and control of smuggling routes. The trade varies from Chinese electronics to weapons  and wheat/food to narcotics. Everything goes as long as the revenues are being generated. The stakes are too high, and the game is too lucrative to be left out. The Taliban command hierarchy gets paid ten times more than any General of a modern Army.

 This financial empire is the biggest underworld organized crime cartel of central and south Asia. This business supports the terror network of the Taliban only in part, with the real buck going in the pockets of those who are controlling and exploiting this game. Just this much is usual under the circumstances, but the use of Ideological mercenaries easily available from now second generation of Cold War Era US-Pakistani trained and equipped Jihadis,  makes this game bloody and tragic. Keep the violence going, is the only way to keep the money flowing for the Taliban King Pins. That is not much of a trouble for them under the comfortable situation they have got there.

To defeat the Taliban or force a surrender, it is critical to check and seize this international criminal business empire. An alternative source of income for the divided tribes living at Afghan_Pakistan border is the only way to control and cease the Taliban manpower resources.  The Pakistani security forces have taken up huge financial uplift projects in the tribal belt of Pakistan. However, the lack of funds and the absence of highest level government support along with lack of good governance in the tribal areas makes it an impossible task to achieve by the Pakistani government alone.

An international effort spearheaded by governmental agencies of the US, Pakistan, Afghanistan and UAE with the support of Indian and Chinese government can bring about a mechanism to put an end to this mega mafia of Taliban. No particular effort in this regard has so far been initiated as the intelligence agencies of these same countries, in particular, the American CIA uses the same business network to move their own illegitimate business operations to either generate revenues for black ops or to look after the vested interests of select few. The CIA supported the biggest drug trafficking operations around the globe historically to gain intelligence and hold influence wherever the Global US Empire is involved on ground. At Afghanistan, they are known to have provided information, logistics support and protection to the key Jihadi leaders and war lords since the Cold War Era to run their respective drug trafficking operations. In recent times,most interestingly the protection money for the ISAF/US logistics safe arrival via land routes in the land locked Afghanistan is being paid till date to the Taliban leadership. Even than the latter loot and plunder the logistics convoys and bomb the fuel tankers at will to raise their price and nuisance whenever required.

To resolve the menace of terrorism, which is fast becoming a global phenomenon, originating from the Af-Pak borders, a mechanism as suggested above backed by serious will of the international players involved is in the long term interest of all the stake holders alike. Pakistani security forces are already doing their bid by conducting precision strikes to take on the Taliban and Al-Qaeeda militants right in their home grounds after years of appeasement policy. The Onus must be shared, for the future peace and prosperity of this world we are now living in, which is greatly interdependent. This inter dependency continuous to grow with every passing year. Its just not good business for this madness to be allowed to continue. The monster being fed, will ultimately bite the hand which feeds it is the message for all those, supporting this monster...........................................................             

HUNTING FRAKESTEIN-Pakistani Military Strikes Back The Talibans

First time in years, the Pakistanis themselves struck the Taliban militants where it hurt the most, right in their own backyard. Some 40 odd people were killed in the Pakistani Aerial and artillery strike as a repercussion of increased Taliban attacks at the Pakistani State. Sans few collateral casualties the majority that was killed were either Pakistani extremist Jihadi bigwigs and many foreign Jihadi fighters or "International Ideological Mercenaries", as I would like to call them. Their nationalities varied between Uzbeks, Germans, Arabs, Pakistanis and Afghanis", quite a bunch, undoubtedly. The precision, lethality and intelligence of this Pakistani strike was meticulous and commendable, so is the courage of the new Army leadership, clarifying its stance on terrorism on ground. The Pakistani Military strike back is what was highly required with regards the tactical operation planning and strike having strategic impact. After all, this is exactly what the Talibans are doing to Pakistani Government for years.

Such precision strikes are what is desperately required at all tactical levels to achieve following goals for the Pakistani state and its security regime:-

1. Achieve much greater strategic impact through, smart targeting and resulting media attention.

2. The political baggage of the strikes is to be dealt by the Pakistani politicians, which conveys a message to the whole wide world, in particular the Taliban, that the days when "rats use to play, while the cat would be away" scenario is over, where Pakistani politicians instead of taking responsibility, would blame the Americans sinister designs for the region and their drone strikes to pacify the extremist tendencies at home. Well, they can't do that now, can they? while the indigenous forces strikes down the terrorist den and own the responsibility.

3. The amount of morale build up within complete Pakistan in general and Armed Forces in particular goes sky high with such revenge strikes, as "Blood For Blood" is the call by the combat troops at Pakistan and by those civilian who have lost their loved ones in the Taliban"s indiscriminate attacks on the Pakistani population.

4. The precision strikes based on domestic human intelligence avoids the much dreaded collateral damage while reducing the risks and burdens of boots on ground ambush, which may leak the security of the complete operation, jeopardizing the element of surprise, which is critical for the success of any such operation. Precious combat troops lives have also been kept out of unnecessary danger, which is highly desired aspect missing in Pakistani tactical operations against the terrorists.

5.  Pakistani Security Forces are finally sending out the much needed message, that they are capable of striking back at will and with precision in defiance of any act of terror targeting any element of the Pakistani State.

6.  Such Joint warfare or Joint Operations by the Pakistani Army in collaboration with the air force is the need of the hour to counter the menace of terrorism. Pakistani security forces lost more manpower in the post 9/11 "War Within" they started fighting at their own home grounds than all three wars combined they fought with India after independence in 1947. Use of high end military technology and suitable employment of Pakistani domestic aerial superiority against the terrorists to avoid loss of life and limb was a much desired action. This latest strike model provides an excellent guideline for all future anti terrorist operations for the Pakistani security forces.

It is needless to emphasize that the root causes of terrorism, emerging after three generations of Jihadist adventures or misadventures needs to be addressed politically and I stand by that. However, for any such process, the Pakistani State needs to be in a position of strength rather anything else as the Taliban were trying to achieve the same before being struck at their heart. The Taliban, will reciprocate this strike for sure, however, what matters is that they now know the implications of their actions. The Pakistani State through its security forces needs to plan and conduct such strikes wherever necessary to send across the message loud and clear, "Blood for Blood", as it will serve Pakistan's broader interests domestically and internationally.