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Thursday, 13 September 2018

Renegotiating of CPEC by Pakistan Govt


There is a wind of positive change and optimistic horizons being projected these days in Pakistan by the educated and patriotic class who supports Imran Khan, who is successful in making his government in the country. One of the very first actions he took as the Prime Minister of the country having the unprecedented, unconditional support of the powerful Armed Forces of the country which has ruled Pakistan for the majority of its creation, is to revisit all the mega contracts made by the previous government, shrouded in the clout of secrecy. Prime Minister Imran Khan or #PMIK as he is affectionately called, announced that not only they will renegotiate the mega international agreements like CPEC(China Pakistan Economic Corridor), but also make the details of these agreements public. It might have caused quite a stir among the investors in particular the Chinese Government, who is the principal investor in the project as such, but, Mr Khans Govt made it clear to everyone that all such contracts will have to be renegotiated keeping the interest of Pakistani public foremost, which has not been the case previously. The existing agreements were made by the Sharif brothers keeping in view their personal business interests and those of their supporters before Pakistani national interests. Because of the said conflict of interests the Nawaz League Govt signed the CPEC contracts on weak footings. It must be mentioned that the Pakistani economic isolation also played its part in subjugating the previous Govt under Beijing. However, rampant corruption at the highest levels in the previous Govt is the essential cause of the said renegotiation.



Before proceeding further, let us clarify the ambiguity about the renegotiation being illegal as such. It may be noted that, all such mega contracts spread over decades, can be renegotiated any time, by any side/party, as and when ground conditions clash with the paper clauses of the agreement. Having said that, in this case the terms of the CPEC agreements are reportedly highly unfair to Pakistan, which the previous Govt accepted firstly because of their own individual vested interests and secondly because they felt, they were under international economic isolation, with the Chinese offering the only way out, so they took the deal on their terms.

So what changed in Pakistan, which warrants such a renegotiation?. Honest leadership serving the national interests of the country is that change which require such an appraisal. Beside, the secret deal made by the previous govt under said circumstances will lead Pakistan into a debt trap where the country will be eventually forced to surrender strategic assets like ports and communication infrastructure to the Chinese side eventually.

Pakistan must not sell for any less, as our Chinese friends are also all about keeping business as business and cup of tea as cup of tea.

The Chinese partners may well be investing the major portion of the CPEC investments, but the entire model has to be workable and favourable for the host country that is Pakistan. It must be understood that the Pakistanis need the CPEC infrastructure projects as much as the Chinese, who want to control the entire regional trade with CPEC as its pivot. Pakistan must not sell for any less, as our Chinese friends are also all about keeping business as business and cup of tea as cup of tea.

The success of CPEC will most certainly decide the status of the Chinese Peoples Republic as the global number ONE power house as against the United States of America. The failure of CPEC God forbid, will not only devastate the Pakistani economy but would also mean the death of the Chinese "1 trillion US dollar" dream of the One Belt One Road(OBOR) project of global economic dominance.

The USA has launched an all out effort in partnership with India to somehow jeopardize the CPEC project. However, this unholy effort is most likely to fail due to Geo-strategical position of Pakistan viz a viz a strong nuclear armed military and the economic and military clout of the Chinese. It does however, provides Pakistan with an option to look the other way if the Chinese partners in CPEC do not make an honest deal with Pakistan regards CPEC which benefits Pakistan in the long run as well as China.

The end state in the near future looks like a settlement of terms and continued fast pace development of CPEC. This would leave the USA no other choice but to compromise and become partners in the mega economic venture called CPEC and OBOR. This would bring India into her senses forcing them to plead Pakistan and China in order to join the CPEC-OBOR project. It would only bring peace and stability through economic integration and poverty alleviation in the most populated region of the world.

 It is finally the time for the Chinese to prove their age old slogan of Sino-Pak friendship which is supposed to be deeper than the oceans and sweeter than honey

It is finally the time for the Chinese to prove their age old slogan of Sino-Pak friendship which is supposed to be deeper than the oceans and sweeter than honey. Its time to prove that China is a friend to Pakistan before being a business partner.         

Monday, 30 July 2018

Why Did The Military Establishment Help Imran Khan?



Imran Khan is widely seen as a messiah by the burgeoning youth of Pakistan who holds the miracle to take them out of poverty and provide them with jobs


Idealism aside, let us ascertain some ground facts which are well established in Pakistan, before answering the subject question :-

1- Nawaz Sharif made billions of USD acquired through systematic white collar crimes commissioned while he held power in Pakistan as the Chief Minister of Punjab and Prime Minister of Pakistan. Through this ill gotten wealth his sons acquired multi million pounds properties in the UK. He was kicked out of power by General Musharraf and pardoned off his crimes because the military dictator wanted to legitimize his rule. More than a decade later, Nawaz Sharif ultimately came back and regained power, but this time around decided to show the all powerful military as to who is the BOSS. However, with the kinds of skeletons the BOSS had hidden in his cabinet, the military establishment refused to take him seriously. Upon this, the advisors of Nawaz led by his wannabe next Benazir, daughter Maryam, initiated a campaign on social and mainstream media to malign the reputation of the military in Pakistan. The military got further estranged and decided to show Nawaz Sharif the mirror hung on the wall made by the bricks of gold acquired through decades of corruption and plunder in Pakistan. Nawaz would not have budged even then, but the global exposure through PANAMA PAPERS after WIKILEAKS brought his tall claims of honesty to ground. Imran Khan, as a result got the opportunity of his life time and took Nawaz Sharif to court over the charges of corruption as levelled in the PANAMA PAPERS. The military which was already infuriated by the funny behavior of Nawaz Sharif and his daughter, just had to tell the Judges, that their security will be ensured if they decided to judge Nawaz Sharif on merit. The rest is on historic record.

2- Irrespective of Nawaz and his daughter becoming convicted criminals and put behind bars, his brother Shahbaz held power in the biggest and richest province of Pakistan, that's Punjab. Nawaz Sharif still held the ace cards in his hands with his party ruling both Punjab and the central government in Pakistan. They choose the key appointments who had to conduct the elections 2018 themselves leaving little to no room for election rigging on the polling day in Pakistan.

3- Pakistan is essentially a tribal society where majority of power is held by the feudal lords specially in the rural areas. These feudal lords always side with the governing party in Pakistan to stay relevant. They follow the advise of the military establishment who are the strongest power broker in Pakistan holding the dominant share in the power dynamics of the country having ruled Pakistan for majority of its independent history.

4- Imran Khan due to his celebrity status is the hope and source of aspiration for the desperate for change, burgeoning youth of Pakistan who forms 60% of the vote bank in country. However, what these dominant youth cult following don't know or wish to acknowledge is that Imran Khan failed to reign in corruption of his party members who are chip from the same old block in Pakistan. Besides the fact that he is reportedly a drugs addict and can not operate without the cocaine he is used to since decades.

5- Military establishment of Pakistan is not ruled by dynasties or a permanent chair, but those in charge come up, through a strictly merit based system which is open for all Pakistanis without any prejudice unlike the case in politics. Also the bosses in the military establishment has to retire permanently after a prescribed time period unlike politics. They are a collation of patriotic Pakistanis who have pledged their lives for the country and supreme national interest. Having said that, the same system is at times misused by those at the top and exploited to attain personal benefits.

6- Like all powerful countries in the world, in particular the USA, military establishment of Pakistan possesses an intricate system to collect and analyze information regards domestic and foreign matters having an impact on the national interest. Owing to the international non acceptance of military dictatorships and its economic ramifications, after the Musharraf era, the Pakistani military bosses decided in principal not to carry out another coup, until and unless forced by actual circumstances as per the constitution of Pakistan. There is a consensus among all ranks of the Pakistani military establishment that the continuation of the democratic process is the only way forward for Pakistan for the sake of her people and their prosperity. In the absence of strong institutions but the military establishment still holds the role of the power broker in the country for the sake of her stability upon which the economies of modern nation states are based upon.

7- With Nawaz Sharif loosing his credibility and hell bent to destroy the repute of the military which is sacrificing their lives on daily basis in a terrorism infested country, the military establishment was apparently left with no other choice but forced to tell the feudal lords in their established role as the power brokers in the country to either join the opposition party of Imran khan who is definitely seen as a messiah by the youth of the country waiting for a miracle to happen and change their lives or contest the elections as independent candidates leaving Nawaz Sharif and his party to themselves. Without the support of traditional winning horses Nawaz was bound to loose the race.


    That's what exactly transpired on the election day, which resulted in a win for Imran Khan.

    For the sake of stability and economic prosperity of Pakistan, Imran Khan is thus likely to be supported and obeyed by the military establishment till such time he delivers upon his promises and is able to reign in his team, making them perform and keep a check on his own addictions.          




Sunday, 15 April 2018

Pashtun Problem In Pakistan-Collateral Damage Defined




Pakistan Army, being the most powerful State institution is angry and confused to say the least, beside feeling betrayed by the group of Pashtun youth in particular who are currently leading a public protest against their Army and the State. The Pakistani Army see itself as the saviours of the Pashtun tribal belt in the country bordering Afghanistan, which was infested with terrorism. It took sacrifices of thousands of Pakistani military men, for them to have achieved a relative state of normalcy in these areas. Pakistani Army fought this "war within", sponsored by its external enemies, and won it at the heaviest cost essentially paid in blood of their martyrs. The villages and cities of Pakistan burying their soldiers and civilians in this war saw an unpreceded numbers of graves, far surpassing any war Pakistan has ever faced in its history. Resultantly, Pakistani Military and State is standing tall and claiming victory, in the first ever counter insurgency won by any Military in the modern history of the world. However, the process continues being in its culminating stages. Efforts are in hand to rehabilitate the disenfranchised and displaced Pashtun population, which got effected in this process and to reintegrate them in the social fiber of the Pakistani State. However, just like this unprecedented "war within", the problems arising out of this conflict are also unprecedented for the Pakistani Military and the State. 

The Pashtun youth, believe that they have been wronged by the State and Military in number of ways. An entire generation of Pashtun youth feel disenfranchised from the Pakistani society, having faced internal displacement resulting in harsh socioeconomic situation for them, in which they were forced to grow up. The collateral damage in this "war within", has made them question their rights, which they feel are being ignored by their State. Some of the questions, which are being raised by these Pashtun rights activists are bitter realities arising out of the past policies of the Pakistani state, formulated by her Military rulers.

Gen Zia ul Haq, at the peak of the cold war, headed the formulation of the Mujahedeen to fight the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The policy won the "Cold War" for the West, but created three generations of International Ideological Mercenaries, essentially stationed in the tribal belt on the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Now, these people, knew nothing else to do, but to fight for the highest bidderwhich is what they did. The anti state Pakistani Taliban group the TTP, is a consequence of the same phenomenon. Once the Pakistani Military launched a mass scale operation to handle their Frankenstein's monster in these tribal areas, it was natural for the civilian population to have been displaced and suffer the consequences, which they did.

Under those circumstances, about a decade earlier, at the launch of Pakistani Military full scale counter insurgency operations, as things stood, you would often find, that if a family had three sons, one would be fighting for the Pakistani Military, second working for the State's Paramilitary and third would be in the ranks of the anti state insurgent militants. It was all about finding a job for them, being third generation fighters who were essentially illiterate but indoctrinated by the Jihad philosophy in the local education system run by the Mullahs, who became filthy rich and powerful through Saudi funding and American weapons during the Afghan Jihad, all thanks to the Zia legacy. 

Pakistani Military, which was initially reluctant to launch a full scale offensive against the insurgents due to the aforesaid environments, was but forced to tackle the issue head on after losing precious lives in huge numbers at the hand of these mercenaries. Due to the same environments, the Military found it extremely hard to differentiate friends from foes and civilians from insurgents who wore no uniform or clear identity. Due to the family ties of the mercenaries with the local population, they were aided and abetted by them. The Military faced many attacks from within its ranks due to the same reasons. In an extremely difficult situation faced by the Pakistani Military, where they could not trust some of their own ranks informing their plans to their relatives fighting against them, it took a mammoth effort for them to quell this insurgency and bring back peace to the restive regions of Pakistan. However, in the process, not only the Pakistani Military faced an unprecedented loss to life and limbs in its ranks, but the Pakistani Pashtun population living in these restive regions immensely suffered as part of the 'collateral damage' in this "war within".

The Pashtun youth are suffering from an identity crisis, which occurred due to the collateral damage arising out of policies and actions of the Pakistani State. These policies were adopted, under the leadership of the Pakistani Military rulers.

Although, the Pakistani State led by the Pakistan Army took mega rehabilitation measures in these effected tribal regions of the country, it would take much more than this to address the insecurities which arose out of this crisis within the young Pashtun population. In an era of free speech, the tolerance and the tact of the Pakistani State and its Army would be tested by these young Pashtun lads. They feel alienated and oppressed comparing themselves with the settled parts of the country. They are certainly being manipulated by anti establishment forces within Pakistan and anti Pakistani State foreign forces, but this is the nature of any social discord in the internet age, which is exploited by one's enemies in the 'info war era'.

The Pashtun youth are suffering from an identity crisis, which occurred due to the collateral damage arising out of policies and actions of the Pakistani State. These policies were adopted, under the leadership of the Pakistani Military rulers. The Pakistani Military, thus needs to raise their patience and positively engage with these disenfranchised youth of the Pashtun ethnicity. Standing behind the constitutional amendment to bring these tribal agencies under the jurisdiction of the Pakistani mainstream judicial system is such step in the rite direction by the Pakistan Army. Having said that, the Pakistani establishment still needs to do much more in this sphere. Labelling and dismissing these angry Pashtun lads as instigators making trouble won't work. All their legitimate demands must be met, may it be at the cost of giving up pawns like Rao Anwaar and others like him. The policies and narratives have to be evaluated by the Pakistani Establishment, and revised towards "post war era" tenure from "war era doctrines".

If the Pakistani State needs to avoid further damage to the federation from these rebels who are protesting out on the streets, they must be given their rightful political space. Mistakes made by the State must be acknowledged and compensated for. Rule of law, irrespective of the complex procedures must be accepted, enforced and respected by all the State institutions. Only civilized conduct by all parties will bring about a modern model civil society in Pakistan.           
   

 

    

Saturday, 17 March 2018

How India Is Loosing War In Kashmir

Srinagar, Indian Held Kashmir, 16 March 2018, A Pakistani flag being wrapped and waved during the funereal prayers of two suspected Kashmiri militant martyred by the Indian forces


Once Pervez Musharraf was made to take a U-turn on the Pakistani decades old policy of sponsoring insurgency in Kashmir under the intense US pressure chartered by India as a pre condition to join the US camp in 2004, everyone around the globe thought, the Kashmir freedom struggle is over for good.  All the odds back then, favoured India, which diverted its funds and energies free from a bloody conflict towards economic progress, while allocating a meagre portion of these funds, which were still substantial, towards hiring the Taliban ideological mercenaries, who got unemployed as a result of the Pakistani policy U-turn, and employed them to wreck havoc in Pakistan using the friendly Afghan soil post 9/11, giving Pakistan, a taste of its own medicine.

13 years on, irrespective of the immense punishment Pakistan withstood by its Frankenstein monster, not only the Pakistani Armed Forces have marginalised the threat to its homeland, but also kept open the channels with the Afghan Taliban who are fighting the US occupation, all the while forging new alliances with old foes Russia with the help of the Chinese partners, blunting all efforts by the US/Allies to bring India forward in the regional theatre in order to do the dirty work for their US partners. The US led western alliance failed to bring order to Afghanistan on their terms, even after pouring trillions of dollars in the Afghan war effort, and loosing thousands of lives. The USA, but have none else to blame but their own people, whose corporate greed took them to the 'Oil Wars' in Iraq on fabricated perspectives and false narratives, shifting focus from the Afghan war effort and its original idea, which was to defeat Al-Qaeda.

13 years on, on the other hand, the Pakistani flag is fluttering high on every nook and corner of the Indian occupied Kashmir. The Kashmiri resistance is now a full blown, indigenous freedom struggle having the UN resolutions to back it up and an international diaspora supporting the cause. India made the mistake of resolving the Kashmir dispute on the model of Israeli occupation of Palestine. However, the Indians forgot, that the Kashmiris at their side of the border looks across ta the Pakistani side of their divided land. The Pakistani side has the Kashmiris, in it living a privileged life, marked with freedom, autonomy, tax free status and many perks including the right to reserved government jobs, university admissions and buying land all across Pakistan while no Pakistani can buy land in Kashmir or be employed on their state jobs. The list goes on, and this example coupled with the high handed role of the Indian security forces deployed in Kashmir under the notorious armed forces special powers act allowing them to to prosecute and kill the Kashmiris, 'disenfranchised' the Kashmiri youth, who eventually took up arms against the Indian occupation of their lands, marred by rape, torture and murder of the Kashmiris.

The modern day heroes in the Indian occupied Kashmir are the likes of Burhan Wani and his followers. The indigenous freedom struggle is here to stay and grow, which will be augmented by the Indian trouble on their borders with China. All what this freedom struggle requires is an influx of some cheap unmarked Chinese SMGs, which are already held by the new breed of militant youth in Kashmir eager to seek revenge from the Indians, for decades of unabated prosecution.

 The meteoric rise of Modi with an ultra nationalist Hindu agenda in India, only proved as a catalyst for the Kashmiri freedom struggle. Modi and his advisers like Ajit Doval wish to follow Israel, and settle Hindus in Kashmir on the Israeli occupation and land grab model of Palestine. However, the Hindus may be financially compatible with the Jews, but they are no comparison to them when the fight hits the dogs. Beside, no respectable Hindu family would wish to migrate to Kashmir, as its not their 'promised land'.

The Indian security forces are back in action at Kashmir, with a vengeance, killing and blinding the Kashmiri youth who took up rocks and arms against the Indian occupation. The Indian security forces moves as such are only backfiring with a visible mass uprising against the Indian high handedness. The disenfranchised Kashmiri youth have got a death wish. The fidayeen suicide attacks in Indian occupied Kashmir is a new trend in that region fuelled by decades of Indian apartheid which provided motivation for such attacks.

All the while the Pakistan Army is not backing down on the line of control, where Indian tried to bully it by a fabricated 'surgical strike drama', only to be backfired bringing humiliation to India. The Pakistan Army is firing back at the Indian forces with equal audacity and more. The Indians are finding no place safe to walk with their heads high, all across Kashmir. The Indian Army is visibly desperate, as proved most recently when in addition to killing the innocent civilians on the Pakistani line of control they fired directly at the United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan, who were monitoring the situation after alerting the Indian Army of their activity.

The indigenous Kashmiri freedom struggle will only grow in its nature and intensity on both political and military front under the established circumstances. India has already begun to loose the war it is waging in Kashmir. Its only a matter of time, before India will be brought to its senses.             

Saturday, 10 March 2018

Dynamics of Pakistan-Russia Nexus



Pakistan is wooing Russia harder than ever. The most recent speech by the Pakistani foreign minister in the national parliament giving policy statements regards not playing as an American pawn any more is a step in that direction. Pakistan is eagerly mending fences with Moscow which, it estranged four decades ago in association with the USA, fighting a war which torn apart the USSR. Knowing the Russians don't forget easily, Pakistanis are willing to take what all it does to cosy up with the Russians and forge an alliance based on genuine interests with an appeal arising from 'heart to heart', making the Russians go beyond the formalities and warm up to Islamabad.

Pakistanis trusted Chinese financiers and friends are all but on board. The great game is being replayed, with the war torn Afghanistan still as its board. Old friends are now foes and vice versa. The major hurdle in this bilateral relationship between Russia and Pakistan was the staunch opposition by India, which 'was' the biggest arms buyer of Russia. But with India embracing the USA and chartering the Indo-Us alliance, Russians are finally getting out of the Indian pressure tactics and are warming up to Pakistan.

The practical manifestation of the Russian intentions and on ground vital visibility of growing Pak-Russo alliance took to shape quite recently. Moscow, in an irreversible move, stabbing India rite in the heart, put a show where the Pakistani Baloch separatist leaders living in Moscow since decades on political asylum were made to take a take a U-turn on Anti Pakistani federation movement. They announced to support the Pakistani state in its efforts to develop Pakistan in accordance with the Chinese CPEC/OBOR plan which pivots around the Pakistani province of Baluchistan. These ex separatist leaders shunned the Indian role in de-stabilising Pakistan and vowed to work with the Pakistani federation. It binned six decades of Indian intelligence efforts in which huge amounts of funds were invested.

All the signs are visible on ground as to what direction this alliance is going. It is all but bad news for the Indo-US interests in the mineral rich Central Asian region. The US troops surge in Afghanistan announced by President Trump won't help the US led western designs with India on board, but will only provide more targets to the Taliban in Afghanistan to hit at. The rise of ISIS in Afghanistan and their confrontation with the Taliban over grasping power can be seen in that context as a US intelligence effort to kill two birds with one stone. US is looking or hoping to contain both Russia and Taliban in Afghanistan by ISIS, a force, which was anyways created by the US/Israeli actions in the middle east. However, the Russians saw it coming beforehand and established intelligence ties with the Afghan Taliban utilising the age old Pakistani connections. The Russians have learned their lesson well after the breakage of USSR to had been caught unaware this time around. While the Pakistanis are experienced in playing this diabolical game like Russia, making it a natural alliance.

What the US led camp refuses to appreciate playing this great game is the geo-strategic realities on ground in Afghanistan. The land locked country is bordered by opposing players with different national interests then those of Washington/Western camp. Till such time, the US camp remain stubborn to the idea of power sharing in the region, unfortunately the game will be continued to be played at the cost of blood and misery of the innocent.

  

        

Saturday, 16 December 2017

The Psyche of Pakistani Islamist Extremism

Pakistani Islamist extremism is essentially born out of the reactionary radicalism or countermeasures to the Hindu ultranationalists agenda in the sub-continent. Cold war may have played a pivotal role in arming Pakistan and making it a gateway to the Afghan made global narco-economy, but it's still not the root cause of the resident militant extremism in the mainstream Pakistani society. It is, but most definitely, the threat and designs of the Hindu ultranationalist in India which formed this psyche behind Pakistani hardline stance to willingly or subconsciously support militancy against Indian designs in the region.



There may well be a realisation among the Pakistani population that this centuries old blood vendetta is hurting Pakistan much more than her supposed enemies. However, the continued aggressive attitude by the Hindu ultra nationalists, now led by Modi in India, against the Muslims of India and Pakistan fuels this stated psyche of extremism in Pakistan using the Islamic religious sentiments and ideologies.

Leaders from both sides of the nuclear armed neighbourhood having fought three all out, beside many proxy wars, do realize this entire situation. But the political dividends by exploiting this situation on both sides, more so in India for the politicians and clergymen are so humongous that, there is almost no hope in sight for any conflict resolution on state to state level at least.

The partition of India was made possible due to this same sadistic attitude of the majority Hindu population, which has only gone worse in the proceeding seven decades of independence. While Modi in India most recently played the Pakistan card yet again as the 'bogeyman' to scare the voters in Gujarat state elections to vote for his Hindu nationalist ruling party, Pakistanis believe it was the Indian direct involvement which caused the Peshawar School massacre of 16 december 2014.



You can't really blame the Pakistanis, who seek revenge from India in the face of the public speeches by Indian leaders. Mr Ajit Doval is one such example who is the Indian national security advisor caught on tape lecturing university students as to how to play havoc in Pakistan by hiring the 'Taliban' mercenaries from Afghanistan to destabilize Pakistan.

Pakistanis with the pragmatic mindset do realize that, it is a taste of their own medicine they are having from India especially once they themselves directly supported the insurgency in the Indian Kashmir, before taking a complete U-turn in 2004 by the Musharraf regime under severe US pressure. Having said that, time has proved that the Musharraf regime critically undersold and abandoned the Pakistani Kashmir insurgency support mechanism in haste. Musharraf needed to ensure decommissioning the 'Jihadi network' working in Indian Kashmir. He, not only failed to do this, but also over trusted his agreements made with Indian nationalist government led by Late Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Musharraf thought that by unilaterality reversing the Kashmir policy of Pakistan he would somehow make history and solve the 'Kashmir dispute', for once and all. Now only heavens know that, was it? the good vine or women Musharraf enjoyed in India or any substantial agreement which made him unintentionally throw Pakistan in the maze of fighting home grown militancy in which Pakistan struggles to find way till date (Please read:    https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2013/04/case-study-impact-of-musharrafs-kashmir.html  )

Pakistanis are forced till date to maintain and support India centric militant groups, due to the rise of Hindu ultranationalist mindset in India ( Please read :      https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2015/11/the-rise-of-hindu-fundamentalist.html ) . The situation has only worsened by the Indo-US strategic partnership to counter the rise of China in the region ( In this connection, you may like to read:  https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-game-of-wits-us-measures-to-counter.html ) .

In this dog eats dog rat race of a world we live in, one man's freedom fighter is another man's terrorist if the 'other' controls the mainstream media machine. And it is no secret that the Indo-US mainstream media machine control and the global opinion forging capability is far superior than that of Pakistan and China combined for now. So Pakistani Islamist Extremism is here to stay and grow large in direct proportion to the Indian ultranationalism and hegemonic designs for the region, especially in the US partnership.

Having said that, Indo-US partnership won't ever be able to achieve its ultimate objective which is to break Pakistan since both partners know it means 'nuclear catastrophe'. China is also standing firmly behind Pakistan in that area, by calling Pakistan its strategic partner just as Israel is to the USA.



Although, peace is the only logical way forward, but as and where we stand now, peace doesn't sell and suit Indo-US designs, while war is still selling like hot cake in Modi's India alongside Trump's America.
        

            

Wednesday, 4 October 2017

China-Pakistan-Russia Military Alliance-Strategic Realignment of Pakistan-II


The USA in another bet on it's Indian pet bulldog to check the flight of the Chinese dragon has declared the Chinese OBOR project passing through disputed territories. To be specific, the Indo-US move is directed at the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Keeping the historic debate aside, the US proclamations and it's loud mouthed propagation by the Indian 'mouthpiece' power, simply does not bother either China or Pakistan a bit. The CPEC project will continue without any hindrance, as Pakistan effectively controls the route since 1947 and the ground situation completely favours China.

India is desperately trying to stir trouble in Pakistan by funding an insurgency in Baluchistan, essentially using the Afghan soil and trying to exploit the political situation in Pakistan. However, what India and her sugar daddy in Washington fails to appreciates is, that the CPEC project, they are frantically opposing was in fact initiated well before they ever imagined.

If Pakistan was playing both sides in Afghanistan, the USA was doing the same with strategically aligning with the Pakistani arch rivals India. 

The Pakistanis appreciated more then a decade ago that the US will not be able to win its war in Afghanistan, due to the USA's lack of understanding about the region and its twisted tribal politics. At the same time, the Pakistanis knew, that as per precedent, the US will look for a scapegoat to blame her failures and the top choice will be obviously Pakistan itself. The Indian moves in Afghanistan and the Indo-US strategic deal including the civilian nuclear energy deal were omens enough for the Pakistanis for the times to come. If Pakistan was playing both sides in Afghanistan, the USA was doing the same with strategically aligning with the Pakistani arch rivals India.

Under these circumstances, while General Pervez Musharraf was ruling Pakistan, he dispatched his, senior most commander, General Ehsan ul Haq, to Beijing. He took the Pakistani strategic proposal to the Communist leadership of China having deep rooted socio-economic implications for the entire region.

 After due diligence, the Pakistani government and the Chinese leadership struck the strategic deal to counter the Indo-US alliance in the region, which is now known as CPEC. Pakistani security establishment gave the guarantee to see this strategic deal to its rightful end, against the Chinese commitment of ownership of the project irrespective of any change in government/regime in Pakistan.                 

The Pakistani security establishment was holding total power back in those days (around 2004) under General Pervez Musharraf. After due diligence, the Pakistani government and the Chinese leadership struck the strategic deal to counter the Indo-US alliance in the region, which is now known as CPEC. Pakistani security establishment gave the guarantee to see this strategic deal to its rightful end, against the Chinese commitment of ownership of the project irrespective of any change in government/regime in Pakistan. This is the essential reason as to why the Chinese determination and investments regards CPEC and commitment to the alliance with Pakistan remains unhindered irrespective of all odds as it may seem from time to time.

Russians Troops Being Welcomed In Pakistan For Joint Training Exercises


Subsequent to the ongoing mega economic developments regards Chinese OBOR projects which is spearheaded by the CPEC, Pakistan is now actively engaged in establishing its military alliance with Russia after China. The Pakistani security establishment quietly and successfully worked for around a decade to break the ice with Russia, which it helped defeat in the 'cold war' as an ally of the USA.

 The way USA abandoned Pakistan in post 'cold war' era to face the blow-back of that war where Pakistan was a front-line state, the Pakistanis always knew never to trust the USA, in particular siding against the Russians ever again. With the Indians influence wearing out in Moscow due to their strategic partnership with the US, Pakistan succeeded in making a substantial military alliance with the Russians. Pakistani security establishment successfully secured not only a formidable military alliance but found an alternative source of advanced weaponry in the shape of its fast developing military ties with Russia and rapidly deteriorating relationship with the USA(Pakistan's major weapon's supplier in the past).

Pakistani-Russian Special Forces Joint Training Being Conducted In Russia


Presently, vast numbers of Pakistani special forces, Aviation and Air force officers, besides other military personals from wide disciplines are stationed in Russia for joint training and liaison activities. It is definitely not a coincidence, but culmination of a well thought out plan in forming of this China-Pakistan-Russia(CPR) military alliance. This nuclear armed military trio has all the formidable elements to give stomach cramps to all its opponents. Together CPR military alliance compliments each other where one's deficiencies are filled by another and vice versa. They have it all, what it really takes, with the Chinese money, Russian military technology and the Pakistani counter-insurgency experience and geo-strategic location to provide access to the 'warm waters' to her allies in the region.

Top Military Brass of China-Pakistan-Russia Witnessing Joint Military Training Exercises At China In Recent Past


Sooner or later, the US will have to come to terms with the CPR strategic alliance and share the bounty in the mineral rich region, whether India likes it or not. Best way would be, for the USA and her allies to see sense and partner in sharing prosperity through peace in the region. However, history of mankind, and in particular that of the US being run by her greedy corporations tells us otherwise. The USA and her allies, may learn their lesson the hard way, that the central Asian region is a tough nut to crack, which may well break their teeth, if they continue to bite hard. EU states in particular the UK, would be better off to engage the CPR alliance through already well established trade channels to best serve respective national interests. In the context of Euro-Asian trade and security it is only a logical recommendation, since Turkey is already almost aligned with the CPR alliance. As for the Indo-US alliance and its friction with the CPR alliance, it would continue, while the US will increasingly try to use India to do her dirty laundry in the region. Having said all that, when it comes to the ground realities, the Indo-US alliance simply lacks the capacity to sustain the opposition towards the CPR alliance in the long term.

Winners in this game will be determined, by the  capacity of players who have the abilities to understand the complex dynamics of the CPR alliance and align with it by embedding within all these three countries using peaceful but sound business strategies.