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Friday 4 January 2013

Changing Internal Dynamics In Pakistan_Global/Regional Impacts

After it's birth in 1947 and partition from India, a fast paced green agricultural revolution and industrial development in the 50s and 60s, a tragic division with it's eastern wing through hostile conpiracies and active Indian support and nuclearization in the 70s, cold war and it's fallout in the 80s and sheer corruption and bad governance being the hallmark of 90s, and the post 9/11 global war on terror infested last two decades coupled with present corrupt political elite and likewise infested government, at present "Organized Chaos" is the best way to define the nuclear armed state of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan  with the seventh largest population of the world. Today Pakistan can also be defined with following fact based headlines :-

>  Country filled with extremist fundamentalist blowing up themselves and other around them in the name of Islam.

>  Country fighting a "War Within".

>  Country corrupted by the elites and common men alike.

>  Country which is facing a severe energy crisis irrespective of being a nuclear technology capable state sitting on one of the world's largest coal and gas reserves.

>  Country divided ideologically and ethinically.

>  Country possessing fourth largest Armed Forces in the world and an indigenous highly sophisticated nuclear arsenol.

>  Country with a muti million men international diaspora mainly influecing USA and EU.

>  Country which is geographicaly the most accessable gateway to/from  the energy rich land locked Central Asia with the world.

>  Country which is historically hosting ground for global ethinic and political rivalries resulting in bloodshed and destruction of it's own.

Aforesaid in  view what most geopolitical analysts fail to comprehend is the reason as to why Pakistan is still geographyically intact not suffering the fate like that of Chekoslavakia for a point in case having such deep ethinic fault lines and nationalist movements funded by global powers?????? Some local experts from Pakistan quote religon as the reason for not having a breakup irrespective of active hostile conpiracies sufficiently supported to the inland mercenaries groups who exists either through direct hostile funding or mostly are fallout of the cold war era legacy.

The answer is financial and livelihood to include food security related interdependence of the various ethinic divisions of Pakistan being a major factor besides Islam with glues them together as a country and this cohesion is unlikely to break irresepective of all the above domestic and foreign reasons or efforts in place.

Of recent with the elections well on their way in Pakistan and the political  dramas and the results which would give "major control" of some would say mad house in coming months are of utmost interset not only for the region but also for the globe. Why I say major control not total is due to the fact that power in Pakistan is divided not as per constitution but as per practice between the democratically elected politicians and military dominated bureaucats alliance with their civillian counterparts known as the "Establishment".  

The subject change in the internal dynamics at Pakistan is a mix of both the upcoming political change coupled with the very significant shift in the national security doctrine of  Pakistan viz a viz threat perception and responce, steered for the first time by the security establishment itself. The Pakistani ectablishment after a decade of bloody "War Within" taking heavy toll on the men and material of the Armed Forces have declared the internal threat within thy borders as their primary focus instead of age old eastern enemy "India". While the shift is not at all total but only from secondary to primary and vice versa, this announces the declaration of an all out offensive against indigenous and foreign supported domestic elements trying to create anarchy and instability in Pakistan. The Pakistani security establishment and the public assumes the role of these miscreant element's actions as efforts directed to destablize Pakistan to an extent warranting an international action to seize the nuclear arsenol. The establishment also see the political government's corruption, lack of will and inability to enforce order through local governance in areas cleared by military operations costing the lives of their men as the pivotal reason of failing to curb the meneance of terror so far. Thus it is the establishment's self declared hidden aim to ensure a progressive looking capable future government in Islamabad. Another more covered up design is to stop the anti establishment political forces like the Pakistan Muslim League( Nawaz Group) headed by the two time former Prime Minister and his brother the Cheif Minister of the provincial government of Punjab, the biggest province of Pakistan. The conflict of establisment versus the Nawaz clan which got into power at first through the backing of the establishment in General Zia's era goes back to the last time they were in power through popular vote having mass mandate trying to take the powerful establishment by their horns untill General Mushrraf took over power through a  military coup made possible by the extreme rash attitude of Mr Nawaz Sharif grossly miscalculating the latitudes of his powers in actual/on ground rather trying to go by the book listening to his incompetent advisors at that time who all simply misjudged the military's reaction to removing their second consective cheif in a degrading manner. 

Thus the powerful Pakistani establishment is out promoting a progressive, less corrupt but pro establishment, technocrats heavy future government. At the same time the shift of the primary arc of fire towards the home grown terror network is a much delayed but highly welcome move at the global level. This major change in the security doctrine is being projected by the establishment itself to the global audience for two reasons it seems at the forefront. First to answer the global demand led by the US/NATO to "Do More" in the war on terror which has become a global phenomenon. Second reason is, while the western bloc's demands are being met and the Pakistani internal security situation improves having positive impact on the economy, the establishment very smartly gains the allownce to partly influence the upcoming elections in the favour of their sponsored and favoured groups without western/foreign objections. This will result in dividing the vote bank of the Nawaz Clan hence blocking their way to the power at Islamabad.

Both major changes in the political and security dynamics are besed on positive and patriotic projections by the establishment backed by the US global empire it seems. The effects of this metamorphosis at regional and global level both can be highly productive only if the Pakistani establishment plays it very safe, avoiding an all out confrontation with the political forces opposed to this role of their and sincerely implemends an internal security mechanism tackling the law and order situation and terror networks  with more resources and revised modern tactics following their stated strategy. The Pakistani Armed Forces have thus far successfully secured their own basis now need to outstrech to their counterparts in the civillian Police in both urban areas besides the tribal belt to enhance their capacity in real sence inorder to fight the plague of terror networks. The goal is well within the resources of Pakistani Armed Forces provided there exists a federal government wich is synchronized with the security establishment in order to obtain this objective. This is the reason the security establishment was able to sell the idea to the global powers in the first place. 

Basing my deduction on the fact that , all is not fair in love and war, the Pakistani establishment if succeeds in avoiding overdoing their bid to get a friendly government while getting what they want, it would be good news for the globe as a whole. Keeping my crossed as the interseting times approch.......................