Is Pakistan Heading Towards Another Military Coup?

While banners ambiguously inviting the Pakistan Army Chief to take over the government in the country appeared in all major cities of the nuclear armed Islamic republic, it was business as usual at GHQ,the Army headquarters. The country has a well established history of repeated military coups. The banners were put across by a political party having little reputation. However, these banners did create international headlines jolting the corridors of power in Pakistan. Army PR mouthpiece is tight lipped about the banners which were erected even in the military cantonments which possess heightened security measures making it highly unlikely to erect such banners without the requisite approval of the cantonment civilian officials. In some instances it was reported that the banners were carried on vehicles bearing official civilian government registration plates. The political party behind these banners is called "Move On Pakistan", which is headed and funded by a Punjabi businessman. While rumors are widely spread out that various powers within the Pakistani security establishment are supporting this political party, the proof of the same rumors are almost entirely non existent.

The so called political party "Move On Pakistan" claims these banners to be an invitation to the Army Chief General Raheel Sharif who is due to retire in four months time to overthrow the civilian government of Mr Nawaz Sharif and install a government of technocrats overseen by himself. This political party came to prominence after putting across likewise posters few months ago pleading the Army Chief to seek an extension to his tenure as the Army Chief is due to retire in November 2016. The banners were erected previously as a response to the highly celebrated Pakistani Military Chief's publicly announcing his decision of "not to seek" an extension to his tenure as the Army Chief. 

Pakistan Army is considered as the "center of gravity" of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, a role cherished and jealously guarded by the military which has ruled the country for most of her existence. Pakistan is currently under political turmoil after the rampant corruption scandals which marks the civilian government of Nawaz Sharif with the latest feather of "Panama Papers" highlighting the corrupt practices of the Nawaz Sharif family. 

The Pakistani Military always keeps a "Plan B", to secure the national interests if the civilian leadership is considered to be "compromised". This "Plan B" is supposed to be a detailed worked out contingency for the takeover of a failed regime through martial law at any time to be replaced with a nationalist technocratic setup. This contingency is well within the constitution of Pakistan. The said technocrat setup is experienced enough to run the matters of the state without any hindrance while carrying out an in depth accountability process purging the deep rooted corruption in the system of governance in Pakistan. It is said that the Military through its elaborate intelligence organizations are keeping records of all public and official office bearers regards their corrupt practices and illegal money earned through the same. The Military's hands are however, tied due to the absence of a constitutional mandate to hold any such accountability. A Military coup and a technocratic setup in power overseen by the martial law is the only hope for any accountability carried out on the basis of the said intelligence gathering by the Pakistani Army.

It is the desire within the Pakistani security establishment born out of public expectations to purge the entire system of Pakistani state apparatus from the deep rooted corruption which is the primary fissure endangering the very foundation and federation of Pakistan. Corruption at all levels of the "state apparatus" of Pakistan also feeds and fans the curse of terrorism in Pakistan. But most ironically the Pakistani military is also part and parcel of the same "state apparatus", being discussed here. The action by Pakistani Army Chief  Gen Raheel against his own officers involved in billions of rupees of corruption might be the first such accountability at the highest levels of the Pakistani security establishment, but it was just the tip of an iceberg. Pakistani Military is the part of the same society Pakistan is made of, where corruption is accepted as a way of life. Pakistan Army attains a superior position in the power dynamics of Pakistan for its ability to lay lives for the defense of the country on regular basis. Every one officer killed after eight men in the current war against terror is the highest officer to men killed ratio around the world. This great sacrifice of young officers and men gives the Pakistani Generals the ability to dictate terms to the civilian government. The same ability of laying lives for the motherland affords Pakistani Army the public support it enjoys over the politicians and makes Pakistan impregnable against all odds. In an international scenario with powerful enemies like India in the US lap and Taliban funded by the enemies of Pakistan through Afghanistan fueling the home grown terror mechanism, Pakistani Army is surely the last line of defense the Pakistanis can ever be certain of fighting till last drop of blood for that country. 

In the circumstances as discussed above, irrespective of the tainted record the Pakistani Military itself possess, for the people of Pakistan their military is still the last hope they cling with. To their credit, the politicians boasts the public mandate of less then half the population which voted for them, who are now evidently skeptical of performance of the politicians compared to the perks they enjoy at public expense. People of Pakistan distrusts a Prime Minister and his government who does not trust his own country for medical treatment. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif just returned to Pakistan after 40 days of absence due to a heart surgery in London at public expense. While most of Pakistanis even don't trust he underwent an open heart surgery as claimed by his family, such is the level of distrust by the public towards an elected PM. The majority of Pakistani political elite remains abroad and maintains lavish properties outside Pakistan. Corruption is all ripe and considered a way of life for the Pakistani politicians and civil servants.

Under the circumstances the appearance of the banners all across Pakistan for the Army Chief to declare martial law and hold widespread accountability is not a surprise to the Pakistanis but a representation of the majority thought process in the country. On the other hand the Pakistani Army holds a plan to install a technocratic government for a long haul to overhaul the entire system of ridding it from the deep rooted curse of corruption it identifies as the greatest threat to Pakistan's security and federation. 

Having said that, like witnessed in the past, absolute power has a way of corrupting the Generals themselves and the current lot headed by General Raheel Sharif knows it all too well. General Raheel Sharif possesses a heartily desire to save Pakistan from the curse of corruption. General Raheel Sharif has embarked upon a tough path towards across the board accountability starting from his home base. General Raheel Sharif has given his words to the young officers and men he commands who gives him the immense power to dictate terms to the country's stubborn political elite that he will "finish what he started". How and what he plans to do is still a mystery to many as the Army has made a deal of convenient power sharing with the civilian government of Nawaz Sharif where the defense and foreign policy is in the direct domain of the GHQ (Army Headquarters) while the rest of governance remains with the politicians.  

In the aftermath of the "Panama Papers" scandal the Pakistani parliamentary opposition is jointly taking a stance against the government of Nawaz Sharif. The only thing thwarting a comprehensive action against the Nawaz government was his return from medical leave. Now that he has returned the opposition is planning to come at him with full force. So far Nawaz Sharif cronies succeeded to defend his premiership and an inquiry against his family by scaring the politicians in opposition of an uncertainty being created if Nawaz is exited allowing the Generals to take over power. All the politicians are the rats scared of the cats in khaki uniforms.    

  Nawaz Sharif  knows all this too well, and by secretly supporting this stunt of allowing the banners and invitation of martial law may want to scare the opposition which is planning a mass public protest against him over charges of corruption highlighted in the aftermath of the "Panama Papers". The threat of military takeover has to be exploited for the politicians in opposition to refrain from embarking upon a planned public protest against Nawaz Sharif who failed to justify his family's unaccounted foreign assets. Only Nawaz Sharif or the Army had the power to allow all these banners to be erected in all the major cities of Pakistan including the cantonments areas. The Army wasted no time in removing these banners from its Garrisons and maintained its decorum. Civilian government vehicles were reported to have carried these banners in some cases. It all points to the conspiracy of civilian government of Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif in Punjab to hype this drama in a desperate attempt to scare the opposition politicians with the threat of martial law. In fact, the Army has no intention of overtaking the government which it intends to self correct or self destruct for the Army does not wish to be blamed for another military coup exonerating the politicians of their follies like in the past taking all the blame of all the odds itself. The "plan B" of a technocratic government is a contingency if the civilian government fails to function endangering the national stability and security. The opposition is already calling the bluff of Nawaz Sharif government as evident from the statements of senior opposition politician Aatizaz Ahsan rejecting any danger of a martial law exposing the conspiracy of the government infuriating the federal information minister. 

In all probabilities, Nawaz Sharif government and his family has tough days ahead while no immediate relief for Pakistani public ridding them of corruption is in sight.