Dr Tahir Ul Qadri (TUQ), while addressing the charged crowd of thousands of his die hard supporters at Lahore today announced to join forces with Imran Khan (IK) and march to the capitol Islamabad to bring down the Sharif Government on the country's independence day, i-e, August 14. With this latest development the Sharif Clan is visibly in thick soup, if it was not already. With the populous support of Imran Khan and the intransigent followers of TUQ joining hands its a perfect recipe of disaster for Nawaz Sharif and Co. The Pakistani political system is based on democracy which is flawed and corrupted in essence. TUQ is vowing is for this system's overhaul, while IK wants the end of present government and take over power. The motives and inspirations of both these leaders and affiliated parties are positive and pro democratic. Nawaz Sharif (NS) and his brand of politicians are no doubt sincere to the country and wants to see it thrive, but utterly lacks the capacity to do so while they continue to govern with the ideology of status quo and politics of intimidation. Nawaz Sharif government consists of his lackeys who ultimately lacks the competence to run their various portfolios as they don't have the skill sets required to do so. Controversial development projects sans transparency bypassing regulations, continued power crises, rising inflation and high sounded promises unfulfilled marks the fourteen months of NS govt in power. IK have been asking for a judicial probe into the alleged elections rigging since an year now, but NS choose to block all ways leading to any such probe. The high handed attitude of NS's brother Shahbaz Sharif governing the biggest province of Punjab in handling the followers of TUQ and killing of the same couple of months ago at Lahore asked for the storm, brewing rite now against the government. The way the NS govt and his kitchen cabinet members dealt with the aftermath of the TUQ workers killings and IK's upcoming protests is downright inefficient, half-witted, rash and idiotic to say the least.
NS government in its visible distress has already enacted article 245 of the constitution and handed over the capitol's security and law and order to the Army. If precedence means anything and to the Pakistani military it always does, the Army was ordered to remain neutral last month when TUQ arrived at Pakistan and NS government shut down the complete country to stop his welcome by the followers of the religious scholar. A repeat of the same shut down at much larger scale is in place at Punjab in particular and whole of Pakistan in general as the scribe write these lines.
In the highly charged political scenario where would this storm lead? is depended on the way the NS govt handles the situation. However, thus far the handling of the situation by the NS govt has been best described above. With this background the situation may get violent while NS and Co uses the Police to manhandle the masses and shed indiscriminate blood of the innocent political workers yet again in their arrogance. TUQ is also calling for blood, "an eye for an eye" is the call he gave his followers today, who were asked by him to fight till death till the fall of the NS clan and his brand of the politics. This whole quagmire is a bit too much to handle for NS and his advisers who are essentially responsible to bring things up to such an alarming situation to begin with. NS lacks the capacity to handle this and likewise crises as expected out a leader of international stature required to run a troubled state such as Pakistan. He has failed in the past and its "de ja voe' " for him and his party yet again it seems.
While the situation is expected to be worsened by all standards in coming 72 hours, both IK or TUQ do not have a constitutional plan to resolve the issues peacefully less NS resigns from power himself and calls for elections. NS is never going to do this because of two basic reasons, foremost of which is that he is an ego maniac who can be best described as such and confirmed as that by his personal staff. Secondly if it comes to that he would love to be labeled as a political martyr while leaving the corridors of power himself is a possibility no way near reality in his case. Only force capable of extracting this resign however and making Sharif a political martyr is the Pakistani Army like they did in the past. In the meanwhile NS government's plan is to act as if everything is normal and its business as usual while they are celebrating the upcoming independence day already. In a bizarre move as such, the govt announced the Armed Forces ceremonial parade on 14 August at Islamabad directly coinciding with the political protests of Ik and now TUQ. To their shame the Army refused bluntly saying such parades are held on March 23rd that is the Pakistan day and otherwise the Army is already busy fighting a "war within" with enemies both domestic and foreign. However, the Army obliged the NS govt by agreeing to perform an independence parade at the parliament house of a smaller scale. In yet another much more controversial move, NS govt decided to handover the Capitol's law and order to the Army. This further alienated the government while more and more political parties are joining forces with IK and TUQ......
In this backdrop, the Army commanders meet on the morning of August 11 to overview the situation and likely decide their reaction in case the law and order situation in the country gets out of hand and anarchy threatens the country's very coherence providing an opportunity to the enemies of Pakistani state to strike the national integration. Under any such scenario the Army will be forced to act and even arrest the prime minister if circumstances dictates and the same article 245 enacted by NS authorizes the Army to do so constitutionally. It would be in any case a wise action considering the sentiments of the Pakistani population and the mood out there on the streets. Likewise, Army may be forced to arrest IK and TUQ if internal security situation worsens. As always the broker of the upcoming political deadlock will be the Pakistani Military which always acts in concurrence with the aspirations of Pakistani population in general. Next 72 hours and the developments which takes place in them will dictate the Pakistan Army's response to the situation. NS govt will use all resources at its disposal to stop/ fail the political movement of IK and TUQ which is most likely to swell into mindless violence and civil disobedience as a result of the use of unnecessary force by the govt. Army is expected to stay neutral and silent spectator for now till the situation warrants them to act......... What's for sure about to happen is that things are about to get messy here at Pakistan, while the Army waits and see as where to strike and when? while the Pakistan Army this time around realize that martial law is not the way forward and only corruption free democracy is the need of the hour for Pakistan. However, the Military is the only one true power broker in this country still........ And their mood is certainly grim.....while NS camp is very much susceptible to crack from within under intense upcoming pressure...... On the contrary if they are able to sustain it, they will survive this storm....
NS government in its visible distress has already enacted article 245 of the constitution and handed over the capitol's security and law and order to the Army. If precedence means anything and to the Pakistani military it always does, the Army was ordered to remain neutral last month when TUQ arrived at Pakistan and NS government shut down the complete country to stop his welcome by the followers of the religious scholar. A repeat of the same shut down at much larger scale is in place at Punjab in particular and whole of Pakistan in general as the scribe write these lines.
In the highly charged political scenario where would this storm lead? is depended on the way the NS govt handles the situation. However, thus far the handling of the situation by the NS govt has been best described above. With this background the situation may get violent while NS and Co uses the Police to manhandle the masses and shed indiscriminate blood of the innocent political workers yet again in their arrogance. TUQ is also calling for blood, "an eye for an eye" is the call he gave his followers today, who were asked by him to fight till death till the fall of the NS clan and his brand of the politics. This whole quagmire is a bit too much to handle for NS and his advisers who are essentially responsible to bring things up to such an alarming situation to begin with. NS lacks the capacity to handle this and likewise crises as expected out a leader of international stature required to run a troubled state such as Pakistan. He has failed in the past and its "de ja voe' " for him and his party yet again it seems.
While the situation is expected to be worsened by all standards in coming 72 hours, both IK or TUQ do not have a constitutional plan to resolve the issues peacefully less NS resigns from power himself and calls for elections. NS is never going to do this because of two basic reasons, foremost of which is that he is an ego maniac who can be best described as such and confirmed as that by his personal staff. Secondly if it comes to that he would love to be labeled as a political martyr while leaving the corridors of power himself is a possibility no way near reality in his case. Only force capable of extracting this resign however and making Sharif a political martyr is the Pakistani Army like they did in the past. In the meanwhile NS government's plan is to act as if everything is normal and its business as usual while they are celebrating the upcoming independence day already. In a bizarre move as such, the govt announced the Armed Forces ceremonial parade on 14 August at Islamabad directly coinciding with the political protests of Ik and now TUQ. To their shame the Army refused bluntly saying such parades are held on March 23rd that is the Pakistan day and otherwise the Army is already busy fighting a "war within" with enemies both domestic and foreign. However, the Army obliged the NS govt by agreeing to perform an independence parade at the parliament house of a smaller scale. In yet another much more controversial move, NS govt decided to handover the Capitol's law and order to the Army. This further alienated the government while more and more political parties are joining forces with IK and TUQ......
In this backdrop, the Army commanders meet on the morning of August 11 to overview the situation and likely decide their reaction in case the law and order situation in the country gets out of hand and anarchy threatens the country's very coherence providing an opportunity to the enemies of Pakistani state to strike the national integration. Under any such scenario the Army will be forced to act and even arrest the prime minister if circumstances dictates and the same article 245 enacted by NS authorizes the Army to do so constitutionally. It would be in any case a wise action considering the sentiments of the Pakistani population and the mood out there on the streets. Likewise, Army may be forced to arrest IK and TUQ if internal security situation worsens. As always the broker of the upcoming political deadlock will be the Pakistani Military which always acts in concurrence with the aspirations of Pakistani population in general. Next 72 hours and the developments which takes place in them will dictate the Pakistan Army's response to the situation. NS govt will use all resources at its disposal to stop/ fail the political movement of IK and TUQ which is most likely to swell into mindless violence and civil disobedience as a result of the use of unnecessary force by the govt. Army is expected to stay neutral and silent spectator for now till the situation warrants them to act......... What's for sure about to happen is that things are about to get messy here at Pakistan, while the Army waits and see as where to strike and when? while the Pakistan Army this time around realize that martial law is not the way forward and only corruption free democracy is the need of the hour for Pakistan. However, the Military is the only one true power broker in this country still........ And their mood is certainly grim.....while NS camp is very much susceptible to crack from within under intense upcoming pressure...... On the contrary if they are able to sustain it, they will survive this storm....
Very intelligently assesed considering the presant political situation and the uncertainty of what will be. Let's see if these predictions will manifest. I agree with the majority of your thinking however I do not believe the Sharif family are sincere with the country. If they had any sincerity towards Pakistan they would not have interests and businesses in India and their blatant looting of the country is obvious and has been every time they have come into power. Their only sincerity is to their pocket and their thirst for power. A bunch of hypocritical cowards.
ReplyDeleteArticle 245 was not enacted by ns rather it was promulgated by him on the advice of coas to tackle wid aftermath of zarb e azab. Coas reiterated this in the meeting of national security. Secondaly role of army has to be neutral while the accountability should rest wid public rather than any undemocratic or unconstitutional act or move even if it is politically chargedand exploited by any pedagogue...
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