Putin might be in thick soup at his home ground in the face of economic sanctions by the west, but he surely has made an impression in the Middle East. The Russian military intervention in Syria to support the Bashr Al Asaad regime proved to be game changer and turned the tables in the favour of the Syrian government. ISIS is the enemy of choice, for all the rite reasons which made this Russian intervention digestible by the US/Western forces, although the said digestion is enforced by the Russians who gave the US/West no other choice. Russians went a step further by warning the Arab patrons of ISIS, reportedly the Arab Monarchs led by the House of Saud to be bombed to stone ages if they did not stop the material support of the ISIS. To top it all, Russians surprised the entire world powers by forming an intelligence sharing alliance against ISIS with their erstwhile enemies, the Taliban in Afghanistan. Russians are warming up to the Pakistanis as well while Pakistan finalized various weapons sale deal to include attack helicopters with Russia. The military ties of Russia with Pakistan have intensified in recent days. All these developments tells a tale of the shift in the balance of power in the Middle East where Russia is emerging as an active power broker with whom powers which matter in the Middle East are willing to cooperate.
Putin regime at home is facing an intense political situation where the western economic sanctions are paralyzing the Russian progress and her economy. However, historically the Russian people have proven to be immune from foreign enforced pressures and Russian middle class is too proud to give in to the US bullying. The worst case scenario may see a change of guards in the Kremlin, but Russian external policies, in particular regards the Middle East is least likely to be changed. The Russian foreign policy in Middle East serves as the pivotal protection afforded to the Russian national interests where Moscow's hold on the energy rich Central Asian Republics and her key allies in the Middle East rests upon the show of strength by Russia in the face of US/NATO ambitions in the Middle East which now directly threatens the allies if Russia.
Russian military action in Syria targeting the forces opposed to the Assad regime in particular the ISIS sends across a strong message to the entire globe in particular NATO. The "New Cold War" has reached the Middle East, and this time Russia is going to take on any threat to her national interests at any cost. Russian allies in the Middle East are also being provided a reaffirmation of their hopes they rests on Russia while they support her.
Having said that, it would be very interesting to observe the extent of Russian resilience and strength of their commitment in the Middle East. US/Western economic sanctions to punish Russia for her muscle flexing in firstly eastern Europe and now Middle East is hurting Russia pretty bad. After all, it takes money to fund wars and Russia is running out of steam on that end.
The battle winning factor in this complete scenario would be the support of China, for or against Russia which would decide the future course of action for Russia. The Russo-Sino alliance is thus far going strong and both the countries have much more to gain from supporting each other then loose. However, the Chinese economy is deeply linked with the western markets in particular the US. An open confrontation with the US/West is simply not an option for China. However, through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and bilateral Russo-Sino alliance, the Chinese will have to support the Russians adventures and may even have to bank roll them. The Russian military technology is far superior then that of China and compatible with the Western war machinery. If push comes to shove, China may find an ally in no one else but Russia for military support against the US/Western designs to contain the rise of "The Red Empire". It is thus in the Chinese interests to support the Russian foreign policy and if that may be the case, then Middle East will be forced to give way to the rise of Russian influence.
Chinese allies in the Middle East and Chinese influences may continue to work in collaboration with the US but wont pose hindrance to the rise of Russian power which will fill up the vacuum being created by the periodic US withdrawal from the region. Although the said scenario may not suit the particular ambitions of the most ferocious bully in the Middle East, that is Israel, but I have a gut feeling that Israel may find common grounds with the Russians to work it all out in the long run after all. For now, it all depends upon what Putin chooses to do next at his homeland, however, the Russian foreign policy in Middle East and its effects are here to stay and last for a very long time to come.
Very good analysis
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