With the Afghan Elections well underway, the US hopes for a smooth political transition on the Afghan domestic front while at the same time, extricate it's forces with minimum amount of nuisance. Taliban on the other hand are waiting with the time at their side for the same to happen, after which they hope to regain the lost grounds post 2001. Whether the Afghan Security Forces, trained and equipped by the US is capable to tackle the impending scenario is highly doubtful due to obvious reasons. It would take lot more time and beating for the Afghan Security Forces to achieve the desired standards expected out of any national level regular armed force, capable of discharging assigned/expected responsibility. In case of Afghanistan, it's too much of an ask from the Afghan National Army and affiliated forces, if a pragmatic overview is taken. Political institutions of Afghanistan is far off from maturity and requires constant support of the international community to flourish, if at all it does.
US administration is honour bound with the pledge Obama made to the American Public and withdraw their Forces from Afghanistan in this year. However, the US after loosing trillions of dollars in the Afghan war expenses and facing the political baggage which comes with the loss of men and material in the said war effort, doesn't find it feasible to just abandon the whole cause. After all, Afghanistan does constitute to be the gateway to the energy and mineral rich corridors of the Central Asian Republics. Maintaining a respected presence at Afghanistan thus, holds the key to the US global dominance in present times and those to follow. Pakistan on the other side, is yet another key player in the region. Land locked Afghanistan's easiest access to the warm sea waters are afforded by Pakistan. The Pakistani military strongly holds the policy and implementation cards when it comes to their foreign policy towards Afghanistan. Pakistani Intelligence (ISI) also has strong influences on the Afghan Taliban leadership whom they created alongside the American CIA in the Cold War era to beat the Soviets, which they did. In the aftermath of Soviet disintegration, the US abandoned the region leaving a huge space, which had to be occupied. ISI did just that and maintained a semblance of control over the world's largest "ideological mercenary force" created and trained by the joint American-Pakistani collaboration. However, for part abandoning the Afghan Jihad after the demise of USSR which led to an Afghan civil war among the proxies, and part the extremist ideology fed to the "Mujaheddin" for the sacred "Jihad" by the ISI_CIA trainers, USA for the Taliban is now the "infidel power", which must be fought against. Taliban are no one else but those two generations of Mujaheddin, which were regrouped to form a singular power by the ISI in order to bring an end the bloody Afghan civil war post Soviet withdrawal. The formulation and support of the Taliban was a necessary evil for Pakistan, which was the singular most affected country suffering from the civil war at Afghanistan after the US abandoned the region. A force had to be created which could bring an end to the civil war while stop the influx of record refugees into Pakistan, affecting its economy and livelihood. Pakistanis did just that and brought the Taliban to the power "ruins" of Kabul, as they stood. 2001 US led invasion brought an end to that, but ISI held its influence over the Taliban who had strong business interests from and within Pakistan generating funds for the leaders and the organization.
Pakistani military's stubbornness in response to the US led efforts to isolate the Afghan Taliban is reminiscent of the earlier's fears of the US behaviour in post Cold War era. At the same time, the Pakistani military views an Indian influenced government at Kabul and the US-Indian coalition in the regional perspective, as a serious security threat.
Without the Pakistanis on board, the US is looking at a doomsday scenario, where India alone is not capable to counter the Pakistani influences at Afghanistan due to the geopolitical factors, such as the Chinese deep rooted partnership with Pakistan and both the country's hostile history with India.
The US needed to address these issues with Pakistan, for a face saving, if not entirely successful US forces withdrawal from Afghanistan in the current year. The US decided to pacify the military at Pakistan by offering them the military hardware, the US will be leaving behind. For a cash and hence equipment starved military, this offer was too good to resist. US risked annoying the Indians which they did, by this equipment transfer, which is reportedly well underway. The Pakistanis are already well trained on the US military hardware and posses strong maintenance and operational capabilities of the new technologies being inducted through the said US offer. But the trillion dollar question is, "what does the US gets in the bargain"?. ........... About everything the US desired it looks like. Foremost, on the US wishlist it seems is the demand that the Pakistani ISI will keep a leash on the Taliban during both pre and post US Forces withdrawal. The US also wants the Pakistani military to seek Taliban participation in the Afghan democratic governance which is frankly too much of an ask. The US will keep on operating from Pakistan and support those bases which will remain at Afghanistan. Pakistan is expected to support the democratic government at Kabul while try not to interfere in the Afghan internal affairs. The acceptance of the US military hardware deal and the release of the latest tranche of the "Coalition Support Fund" to Pakistan signifies the agreement thus sealed.
A stable Afghanistan is in the interest of Pakistan, is the realization both at the Pakistani military and civilian power corridors. However to achieve the same would be a question of time, and dedicated effort by essentially the Pakistani Security Establishment in partnership with its Allies. This is a complex maze of numerous red lines, which need never be crossed. If achieved successfully by the collaboration of "all the stake holders", the result could well be, a new chapter in the regional and global history upon which the subsequent generations will take pride in reading..........................................
US administration is honour bound with the pledge Obama made to the American Public and withdraw their Forces from Afghanistan in this year. However, the US after loosing trillions of dollars in the Afghan war expenses and facing the political baggage which comes with the loss of men and material in the said war effort, doesn't find it feasible to just abandon the whole cause. After all, Afghanistan does constitute to be the gateway to the energy and mineral rich corridors of the Central Asian Republics. Maintaining a respected presence at Afghanistan thus, holds the key to the US global dominance in present times and those to follow. Pakistan on the other side, is yet another key player in the region. Land locked Afghanistan's easiest access to the warm sea waters are afforded by Pakistan. The Pakistani military strongly holds the policy and implementation cards when it comes to their foreign policy towards Afghanistan. Pakistani Intelligence (ISI) also has strong influences on the Afghan Taliban leadership whom they created alongside the American CIA in the Cold War era to beat the Soviets, which they did. In the aftermath of Soviet disintegration, the US abandoned the region leaving a huge space, which had to be occupied. ISI did just that and maintained a semblance of control over the world's largest "ideological mercenary force" created and trained by the joint American-Pakistani collaboration. However, for part abandoning the Afghan Jihad after the demise of USSR which led to an Afghan civil war among the proxies, and part the extremist ideology fed to the "Mujaheddin" for the sacred "Jihad" by the ISI_CIA trainers, USA for the Taliban is now the "infidel power", which must be fought against. Taliban are no one else but those two generations of Mujaheddin, which were regrouped to form a singular power by the ISI in order to bring an end the bloody Afghan civil war post Soviet withdrawal. The formulation and support of the Taliban was a necessary evil for Pakistan, which was the singular most affected country suffering from the civil war at Afghanistan after the US abandoned the region. A force had to be created which could bring an end to the civil war while stop the influx of record refugees into Pakistan, affecting its economy and livelihood. Pakistanis did just that and brought the Taliban to the power "ruins" of Kabul, as they stood. 2001 US led invasion brought an end to that, but ISI held its influence over the Taliban who had strong business interests from and within Pakistan generating funds for the leaders and the organization.
Pakistani military's stubbornness in response to the US led efforts to isolate the Afghan Taliban is reminiscent of the earlier's fears of the US behaviour in post Cold War era. At the same time, the Pakistani military views an Indian influenced government at Kabul and the US-Indian coalition in the regional perspective, as a serious security threat.
Without the Pakistanis on board, the US is looking at a doomsday scenario, where India alone is not capable to counter the Pakistani influences at Afghanistan due to the geopolitical factors, such as the Chinese deep rooted partnership with Pakistan and both the country's hostile history with India.
The US needed to address these issues with Pakistan, for a face saving, if not entirely successful US forces withdrawal from Afghanistan in the current year. The US decided to pacify the military at Pakistan by offering them the military hardware, the US will be leaving behind. For a cash and hence equipment starved military, this offer was too good to resist. US risked annoying the Indians which they did, by this equipment transfer, which is reportedly well underway. The Pakistanis are already well trained on the US military hardware and posses strong maintenance and operational capabilities of the new technologies being inducted through the said US offer. But the trillion dollar question is, "what does the US gets in the bargain"?. ........... About everything the US desired it looks like. Foremost, on the US wishlist it seems is the demand that the Pakistani ISI will keep a leash on the Taliban during both pre and post US Forces withdrawal. The US also wants the Pakistani military to seek Taliban participation in the Afghan democratic governance which is frankly too much of an ask. The US will keep on operating from Pakistan and support those bases which will remain at Afghanistan. Pakistan is expected to support the democratic government at Kabul while try not to interfere in the Afghan internal affairs. The acceptance of the US military hardware deal and the release of the latest tranche of the "Coalition Support Fund" to Pakistan signifies the agreement thus sealed.
A stable Afghanistan is in the interest of Pakistan, is the realization both at the Pakistani military and civilian power corridors. However to achieve the same would be a question of time, and dedicated effort by essentially the Pakistani Security Establishment in partnership with its Allies. This is a complex maze of numerous red lines, which need never be crossed. If achieved successfully by the collaboration of "all the stake holders", the result could well be, a new chapter in the regional and global history upon which the subsequent generations will take pride in reading..........................................
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