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Tuesday 30 April 2013

Case Study-Impact of Musharrafs Kashmir Policy on the South Asia

The Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan historically formed the foremost bone of contention amongst both countries bilateral ties. The nuclear armed countries present the potential of a doomsday scenario with fears of nuclear holocaust in case of an all out war at present. The region is the heaviest armed conflict zone in the world having far reaching effects for complete globe. However, under the Musharraf regime, a decade earlier, Pakistan took a major shift in its Kashmir Policy under the US led peace initiative. This policy shift at one hand fundamentally altered the Pakistani support for the armed freedom struggle at Indian part of Kashmir and on the other, saw India rising out of ashes in Kashmir to emerge as a winner all around with shining colours. In this paper we shall study to seek the impact of Pakistan's reversal of its Kashmir doctrine and see as to how this u turn drastically rather, devastatingly effected the Pakistani internal security situation having all round consequences for the country while India reaped comprehensive glory out of this strategic maneuvering.
 

 [1] In 1947, British rule in India ended with the creation of two new nations: the Union of India and the Dominion Of Pakistan, while British suzerainty over the 562 Indian princely states ended. According to the Indian Independence Act 1947, "the suzerainty of His Majesty over the Indian States lapses, and with it, all treaties and agreements in force at the date of the passing of this Act between His Majesty and the rulers of Indian States", so the states were left to choose whether to join India or Pakistan or to remain independent. Jammu and Kashmir, the largest of the princely states, had a predominantly Muslim population, while having a Hindu ruler (Maharaja Hari Singh.) On partition Pakistan expected Kashmir to be annexed to it.
In October 1947, Muslim revolutionaries in western Kashmir and Pakistani tribals from Dir entered Kashmir, intending to liberate it from Dogra rule. Unable to withstand the invasion, the Maharaja signed the Instrument of Accession on 25 October 1947 that was accepted by the government of India on 27 October 1947.

 The intensity of this dispute can be ascertained by the fact that, Pakistan and India fought three wars over the issue in 1947, 1965 and 1999 Kargil conflict respectively.

[2] At the end of the "cold war" era, the Indians openly and covertly supported the Russian rebuttal in the shape of fomenting terror in Pakistan, for the latter's support to the USA in the cold war. Pakistan saw widespread terrorism and huge civilian casualties as a result of mindless bombings at its urban centers. Pakistani intelligence agencies were able to arrest Indian spies belonging to their premier Intelligence outfit, the "Research and Analysis Wing" (RAW). Sarbajeet Singh is one such case who is still under Pakistani detention having confessed to the above stated crimes. There was an urgent need to check the Indian clandestine aggression towards Pakistan in providing material, technical and tactical support to the Russians at every level. This necessity in the backdrop of the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan presented an opportunity in itself to the Pakistanis.  The late General Zia Ul Haq was presented with a plan by ISI which was based upon systematically reinforcing the already established, but weak Kashmir freedom struggle in the Indian held Kashmir. The ideological ground works were already in place at Kashmir as a result of massive humanitarian violations by the Indian security forces deployed at Indian held Kashmir. The physical resources to fight and support a successful insurgency were held with Pakistan in the shape of trained gorilla warfare force of "Mujaheddin" . The huge Pakistani and Afghan Pashtun warriors or mercenaries were readily available to be infiltrated in Kashmir who got De induced from the Afghanistan theater on the termination of the "Cold War" . The plan was approved by Zia and hence, started the sophisticated Kashmir Jihad network by the ISI by initially utilizing services of 50,000 registered "Mujaheddin" force. The vast experience of cold war and related resources made it a piece of cake for the ISI to successfully implemented the said reinforcement of the freedom struggle or if fairly termed, an armed insurgency achieving its goals straight away.

The Pakistani game plan not only refrained the Indians from fomenting trouble at Pakistan on the Russian's behest but also committed [2] 600,000 Indian military/security forces at Kashmir to fight the insurgency. The intense gorilla warfare tactics and the ferocity of the Mujaheddin left the Indian security establishment in an awe. They felt bogged down in a war they were neither trained for nor were equipped to fight.

As a result [3] Pakistan fundamentally altered the dimensions of the conflict in Kashmir. On one level, the provision of arms, training and finance dramatically heightened the firepower and overall proficiency of the militants on the ground.

The Indian Army's atrocities and crimes against humanity further deteriorated the situation into a mess for the Indian International outlook having direct adverse impact on their already troubled economy. The financial costs of fighting the insurgency and maintaining almost half of Indian Army at the Indian Occupied Kashmir ran into trillions of rupees. The foreign direct investments(FDI) thinned out due to the stated situation for India while the focus of Indian government was captured by the Kashmir insurgency, the Indian economy suffered like never before.[4] In 1996 alone India was only able to attract USD 2 billion FDI against a target of 10 billion US dollars. These problems combined with power shortages constrained economic growth by limiting industrial and service sector productivity at India.

Under the circumstances India suffered loss of life in thousands besides humongous financial cost effects.[5]  It is estimated that during the uprising in Kashmir covering the period 1990 to 1998 the Indian security forces had lost over 6,000 officers and soldiers killed and double that amount wounded. [6] Indian Kashmir lost 27 million tourists from 1989-02 leading to tourism revenue loss of $3.6 billion for India.

Although the effects of the Kashmir conflict never directly hindered the political economy of India besides Indian held Kashmir, however, the indirect effects of the conflict sounded alarms all over the Indian state. There are reportedly more than 20 confirmed separatists movements active in India. Kashmirs freedom struggle fueled by Pakistan was an inspiration for all those separatists movements. With almost half of Indian security apparatus committed in Kashmir alone, India was simply a hostage to all this trouble, having huge consequences for their economic and political growth which was literally at siege.     

Pakistan saw a dramatic shift of executive power in 1999 with General Pervaiz Musharraf taking over the government through a military coup. As it is identical with any military coup de etat, Musharraf's regime lacked essentially the roots in public which can only be provided through a democratic mandate which Musharraf lacked. But 9/11 proved to be an ironic blessing in disguise for Musharraf regime and he by siding with the Americans and the west gained the crucial international support for his rule.He held general elections in 2002 but those were mostly engineered to bring his own party, PML(Q) or the so called "Kings Party" to power. Musharraf regime was in essence supported by the US/Western world for his stance on the "War on Terror", which ultimately turned into "The War Within" for Pakistan. For the fiscal and political support afforded by the US led western world, Musharraf was but inclined to favour the US policies and designs in the region.

The US extravagant spending in the Iraq war fiasco and at Afghanistan, along with a dire need to create a partner in the region who can present a strategic counterweight to China dictated the Americans to forge an alliance with India. By offering a civil nuclear deal, US hoped gaining access for its businesses with related benefits at India. While a strategic alliance with India best suited the US who wanted to create a regional protege who could police the South Asian region while also keeping a check on the rising Chinese influence in the area. With this background the US diplomatic managers started wooing the Indians back in 2003.

India historically harbours hegemonic designs for the region. For this desire of India, a clout at Afghanistan and strategically engulfing the Pakistanis through hook or by crook presented a formidable challenge for the Indians as always. Sino-Pak close ties were and still are a common soar pill for both India and USA. The most critical barrier to any Indian move regaining control of the region was the Kashmir freedom struggle, which tied not only Indian resources but questioned their credibility as a self proclaimed regional power as well. Over the years the Indians were provided with active support from the state of Israel, to counter the Pakistani supported insurgency, but to no avail it was. However continued the Indo-Israel strategic cooperation whose only logical reason seemed to be a common enmity towards the only nuclear armed Islamic Republic in the world.

The American wooing, probably under the Zionist lobbying provided India with an opportunity, beyond their wildest imagination.[2] India reportedly demanded the US that in order to go ahead with the strategic alliance an assurance from the latter's Pakistani protege Pervaiz Musharraf was required to take a U turn on the Kashmir Policy of Pakistan. They demanded from the US, in one way or the other to make Musharraf backtrack the ISI and the Pakistani state in sponsoring and supporting the armed insurgency at Kashmir. This formed the basis by India for accepting any US proposal to forge a marriage of convenience of any kind.

The details of how the US sold the idea to Musharraf remains obscure, however as reported by a brave soul, may Allah bless him always for his tenacity and bravery, Late Saleem Shahzad wrote,  [7]  Heavily backed by US assurances of aid and support, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf hastily took a U-turn on his country's Kashmir policy and talked of "meeting halfway somewhere" in the hope of emerging as the unequivocally US-backed leader of the subcontinent who had succeeded in resolving the Kashmir dispute. The Musharraf government even went to the extent of closing all training camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir used as bases for cross-border militancy. Pakistan also turned a blind eye to India erecting a giant fence along the Line of Control that separates the two sections of Kashmir, in contravention of United Nations resolutions which suggest that Kashmir is a disputed territory and thus any demarcation should be discouraged.

[2] By end 2003-04 Musharraf ordered all ISI activities to be periodically seized supporting and operating the Kashmir Jihad. By end 2004, the process was completed to dismantle the complete insurgency support mechanism in the Indian occupied Kashmir with the Mujaheddin units disbanded. various prominent leaders of  the Kashmiri freedom struggle at Pakistan were either house arrested or they mysteriously disappeared from the horizon.[7] Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil of the defunct Harkatul Mujahideen, Maulana Abdul Jabbar and Abdullah Shah Mazhar of the defunct Jaish-i-Mohammed and many other prominent names have been placed under "informal" detention at the behest of the US and are still under observation. More than 3,000 activists from these organizations are also missing from their homes.

 A lot of patriotic/nationalist/ Islamist and left wing activists were angered by these developments. The ISI suffered a critical blow to its credibility and repute while loosing precious assets and resources. Most of the deserting fighters possessed critical knowledge with respect to ISI's infrastructure and capabilities.

 In short and crisp terms, Musharraf not only completely submitted to the Indian desires via US, but also compromised decade long sacrifices of his only constituency at Pakistan, the Army and its very own trained and run Mujahedin. .[7] This was done in the hope that Kashmir would be recognized as a land of seven regions, on US insinuation, and that India would agree on a formula which suggests the "division of Kashmir" on religious, ethnic and geographical lines. Yet India rejected all ideas except that "Kashmir is an integral part of India".

The scenario afforded India a breather of fresh air it was gasping to obtain. In turn the US got hold of their desired aspirations with a start with India-US civil nuclear deal or the so called 123 agreement.[2] The Indian security forces reorganized and used the huge amount of money left at their disposal while they were free from fighting an insurgency on firstly fencing and censoring their borders with Pakistan including the illegal fencing of the Line of Control. In the second phase the actively planned a sabotage mechanism to give Pakistan a taste of their own medicine. Indians opened up 21 different information centers all along the Pak-Afghan borders, fully facilitated by the USA with the technical support of Israel. These so called information centers ran clandestine operations by hiring the services the now out of job, Kashmir Jihad Mujahedin and mercenaries of Central Asian dissent through third parties to target Pakistani military and civil segments deep within their own turf. The ISI found proof of Indian intelligence involvement in Pakistani terror attacks by the Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The majority fighting force of these anti Pakistani state elements comprised of fighters previously deployed by the ISI at the Kashmir Insurgency who were used to target the ISI itself. The situation persists to date.

In one swift move the table turned on Pakistan with Musharraf taking a u turn under dubious circumstances on the Kashmir policy of Pakistan. This turned not only the Pakistani once prided asset, the Mujaheddin against the Pakistan Army, but these fighters who only knew how to fight as a way of life and to earn bread and butter for their dear ones became indirect hired guns for the Indians. Pakistanis bogged down in the pit designed for the purpose by the enemies of this country. Pakistan is to date fighting the terror which was inflicted by either naivety of its leadership or through their weaknesses at large. Pakistan suffers and bleeds on daily basis while Indians are conveniently fomenting terrorism at Pakistan through Afghanistan.The Baluchistan separatists movements are directly funded and supported by the Indians while it is international knowledge. India regularly funds terror attacks all over Pakistan, while the latter desperately observes.

US Secretary of defense Chuck Hagel suggested in a previously unreleased 2011 speech that India has for many years sponsored terrorist activities against Pakistan in Afghanistan. In a speech, delivered at Oklahoma's Cameron University, Chuck Hagel said: "India for some time has always used Afghanistan as a second front, and India has over the years financed problems for Pakistan on that side of the border".

"And you can carry that into many dimensions, the point being the tense, fragmented relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been there for many, many years," remarked Chuck Hagel who was a US senator at the time.

While Pakistan got infested with the Indian sponsored terror as a result of the Musharraf led U turn on Kashmir, India flourished in almost all aspects. Free of its major worries, i-e, Kashmir Insurgency, India quietly and quickly regained the international stature backed by their newly found love affair with the US and the Indian economy went all bullish. India off course introduced the economic reforms backed by the US by freeing its markets, but the international repute in the aftermath of the end of Kashmir armed insurgency viz a viz its effects on various separatists movements at India brought back the international investor confidence in the Indian economy. [8] In 2003-04, India’s GDP growth rate jumped to 8.5%. [9] The Indian economy grew at a sustained growth rate of 9% from yr 2003-04 to 2008. On July 18 2005,  President Bush and Prime Minister Singh announced to enter into a nuclear agreement in Washington. The Indian-US nuclear agreement also known as the 123 agreement and it's resultant implementation in 2008 will provide India with not only the energy required to feed its booming economy but also comes with it the, international prestige and acclamation, associated with mingling with the "big boys" of global politics while India became the legitimate member of the Nuclear Club, a privilege not even extended to Israel by the west.                                     

References
1. Kashmir Conflict: www.wikipedia.org
2. Writer's interview with  high ranking Pakistani Ex Intelligence(ISI) Officer.
3. Peter Chalk: Pakistan's Role In Kashmir Insurgency,Rand Corporation Research Report ( www.rand.org 2001)
4. David Dickens: More than Bombs and Border Tension; India and Regional Security, Published by Center for Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand, 1997)
5. Lt Gen(Rtd) Sardar FS Lodi: India's Kargil Operations,An Analysis ( Pakistan Defense Journal, Nov 1999)
6. Strategic foresight Think Tank of India: Shocking Calculations ( Weekly Independent, March 11, 2004 )
7. Mr Syed Saleem Shahzad (Late): Musharraf Ups and Ante on Kashmir ( Broader Middle East, 2005) http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/Broader-Middle-East/Shahzad-Syed-Saleem/Musharraf-ups-the-ante-on-Kashmir
8. T N Srinivasan, China, India and the World Economy.
9. IMF Working Paper by Arvind Virmani: ( Accelerating and Sustaining Growth, Economic and Political Lessons, 2012 )

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