It is difficult to describe the Pakistani Electoral process with the help of any particular model related to the modern world democratic process. To understand the Pakistani politics based upon, clans, kinsmen ship ,economic pressure groups and establishment backed pawns, one needs to study deep down into the roots and on ground sociopolitical scenario of almost every district and division as separate case. The overall public sentiments does matter in an outcome of an election at Pakistan, but engineering the process through systematic corruption have also been the trick of the trade in the past by the Pakistani establishment. However, public sentiments have always been critically analyzed and forms the basis for either backing off or exploitation of the same. This time round however, the situation is unique due to various factors which are First in the history of Pakistan. They are :
> First ever democratic changeover of government at Pakistan without a dictator on the helm.
> Independent Judiciary.
> Caretaker government placed through mutual consensus of all political players of Pakistan.
> Independent Election Commission with a mutually selected Chief by all stake holders.
> Military's complete support of the electoral process.
> Establishment's seemingly inability to influence the electoral process.
> Participation of nationalist parties in the Elections at Baluchistan province.
> Emergence of a new political players like Mr Imran Khan and the associated hype and hopes.
Bloodshed, Chaos and mayhem are the hallmark of Pakistani politics, but the Talibans threat to sabotage the process and killing of three candidates till now makes it more than just a threat. Terrorists will surely not stop at this and target the politicians out from their protective shells running their campaigns in particular at Khyber Pakhtonkhwa(K Pk) province, the hotbed of Talibans. Pakistan lost it's two times Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto to this militancy in the last elections of 2008 and saw widespread violence throughout the country as a result. Even than the Elections took place with the party of deceased Benazir Bhutto en cashing upon the "sympathy vote" gained due to the sad demise of their leader and took over the power seizing the opportunity offered in the midst of all the madness and bloodshed. Such are the contrivances of Pakistani political scene in the backdrop of a society under siege of likewise compulsions. Ironically again such precedences prove wrong any assertion that violence or terrorism can block the way of the Pakistani electoral process.
The upcoming polls at Pakistan are however, interesting and happening enough to reverberate the sights and sounds of the bygone era of Pakistani electoral politics. The twist is added by the terrorism by miscreants led by Pakistani Talibans, and resolve of politicians and public alike, refusing to budge in the face of this naked terror. It will surely be the litmus test of Pakistani public's resolve. As per Pakistani Intelligence Agencies, the Pakistani Talibans, denouncing the ongoing democratic process as Un Islamic in association with sister terror outfits, Talibans of Sawat and Lashkar e Jhangwi funded by the hostile states to Pakistan are busy reining terror in complete country targeting innocent civilians aspiring for a positive change through Elections. Political leaders are at the top of the terrorists hit list. These terrorists have so far succeeded a number of times in their nefarious designs while failing at others. In all this terror and darkness, the heartening sight is the mutual consensus amongst all the political players and the majority of the masses at Pakistan, that how may ever be flawed, the democratic form of governance is the only way forward for national integration and progress. They consider their right to vote, a must chance to be availed as their individual effort for the aspiration of peace. This the feeling is prevailing in the public here more often with every passing day and after each terrorist attack. The democratic system it seems to the masses of Pakistan, has the potential to refine itself through the filtration process presented by the General Elections unlike any dictatorial government. These are the vibes I term to be those of, " confident change in Pakistan " coming through the shift in the thought process of all sensible people in this country. This situation also promises a much higher expected voter turn out against the 43.65% recorded turnout of 2008 elections. Least to say, there will be more twists and turns in this process by means of shameful terror, political campaigns and public hype while approaches "May Day" of the General Elections (GE-2013).
With regards to the power politics and strong players on provincial and national level, party wise analysis of major contenders is presented as under:-
> Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), enjoying the sympathy vote in the aftermath of the assassination of their chairperson in 2008 elections came into power, by winning National Assembly(NA)'s 124 elected seats out of total 272. They secured an overall 30.6% vote bank in the complete country. In collaboration with their arch rivals supporting them for restoration of democracy and out of respect of the deceased Benazir Bhutto they formed a coalition government in the center, which they successfully maintained by repeatedly changing their coalition partners through out their tenure. At provincial level they secured 107 seats in Punjab, forming the main opposition, 93 seats at Sindh, forming government there with the coalition of again arch rivals MQM(Muthahida Qaumi Movement), 30 seats at North West Frontier Province(Khyber Pakhtonkhwa) joining Awami National Party(ANP) in forming government who reciprocated the favour at center to the PPP and securing 12 seats at Baluchistan where they were again able to form a coalition government.
The ruling party along with it's coalition could only perform marginally, while the country saw a drastic increase in corruption, inflation, power crises and bad governance. The successes were limited to securing a national mutually agreed finance award agreement, some bold foreign policy initiatives at the end of their tenure and completing their term in power for the first time by a democratically elected government.
In the current elections, even at their hotbed of Sindh province and southern Punjab, PPP is expected to face tough competition in the face of a prodigal performance in power. It is expected that PPP will loose almost all seats at both national and provincial level wheresoever, they face even minute credible opposition. They will however, be able to retain only the rural seats of confirmed electable who influence the financial livelihood of their voters. PPP is also expected to win agricultural belt rural seats for the food price inflation in their complete tenure which greatly benefited the locals of these areas who saw a huge increase in their fortunes. In urban centers and industrial cities/towns, PPP is expected to suffer heavily over the sloppy performance while in power. Their chance of coming back into power is limited to only at provincial level of Sindh, that too with various question marks with MQM's loyal vote bank and Pakistan Muslim League-Functional (PML_F) led by Pir Pagara emerging as a potent force challenging their supremacy in the province.
> Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML_N) led by Mr Nawaz Sharif played a very mature and cool headed role in last five years. They supported the democratic process and helped nullify various attempts to botch the same.In GE-2008 with a dedicated vote of an overall 19.6%, they won 91 NA seats and helped PPP form the central government, which they left subsequently. At their hotbed of Punjab they formed the government independently by securing the highest number of seats i-e, 171. They were able to secure only 9 seats in Sindh, 1 in NWFP and none in Baluchistan.
The performance of PML(N) at center remained controversial as the main opposition party while they failed to practically stop the rampant corruption at national level and the power crises. To their credit is the support they extended towards the democratic process and refraining from sabotaging the same irrespective of number of opportunities presented due to the ineptness of PPP government. At provincial level of Punjab where the government led by Mr Shahbaz Sharif, was restrained to perform at the optimum due to the severe energy deficit. However, mass development projects were even than taken up by the Punjab government and completed in time despite all the hurdles to their credit.
Mr Nawaz Sharif remain out of practical governance while concentrating his efforts at improving his party's vote bank at Sindh and NWFP, now K Pk (Khyber Pakhtonkhwa) province. He also successfully sabotaged the Musharraf Era political alliances against his party and shaped a pitch in five years which now favours his team's potential to the max. By far the most PML(N) is the strongest contender to form the national government, and that in Punjab with only competition it faces from cricket star turned politician Imran Khan and his party Pakistan Tehreek E Insaaf (PTI) which means the justice movement of Pakistan. PML(N) is expected to retain almost all of their rural area seats in Punjab, where they have loyal vote bank dedicated to their party. Punjab also holds the maximum population hence electoral seats in the country. PML(N) is expected to perform better in K Pk this time, while in the province of Sindh, if they are able to strike a desired coalition with the PML(F), who knows?, we see PML(N) part of the treasury benches in the Sindh provincial assembly. At present it seems that PML(N) will be able to come into power if they succeed in forging a successful coalition with like minded parties and wooing the successful independent politicians .
Pakistan Muslim League(Q), PML(Q) , termed as the King's party was engineered to break the Nawaz Sharif's Clan power by General Pervaiz Musharraf and came into power with the active support of the establishment under the auspices of the said dictator. Under the seasoned leadership of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, the party survived till date and formed part of ruling coalition with the PPP at the center in the last year of their power. The party has been broken and badgered by skillful maneuvering of PML(N) bosses and does not possess any winning chance to form future government anywhere in the country. But behold, the Chaudries of Gujrat who can pull a rabbit out of their hat every other time. PML(Q) is expected to win few seats in the national and provincial legislatures at the most. In any case, their hay days are over by a big margin in the present situation.
PML(Q), in GE-2008, held under the rule of Perwaiz Musharraf secured an overall 23% votes winning 34 NA seats. They were able to win 84 seats in Punjab, 9 in Sindh, 6 at NWFP and 18 in Baluchistan. However, with the passage of time, 18 of the party's most prominent NA leaders broke away from PML(Q) leaving it in a limbo. A huge number of Punjab assembly members also broke ranks with PML(Q) to join PML(N). At the province of Baluchistan, with the participation of all nationalist and other parties, the likelihood of majority seats is very rare this time around in the backdrop of negative public sentiments against the party's founding father, General Perwaiz Musharraf.
The best chance for PML(Q) in the upcoming elections is to win half of their seats if they could, compared to 2008 elections in order to retain some credibility and for the sake of face saving. It is expected that if things go as per PML(Q)'s plan, that might just be possible, with some ifs and buts off course.
Muthadda Qaumi Movement(MQM) , MQM, is an ethnic party of Urdu speaking population of Pakistan, aspiring a national status. MQM, is remotely controlled by their controversial leader Mr Iltaf Hussain from London and forms a major political force of Urban Sindh to include the financial nerve center of Pakistan, Karachi. MQM skillfully managed to be part of all three previous governments in the country while maintaining a distinct political identity. Their hold on the metropolis of Karachi is critical for any Pakistani government for the financial well being of the country.
MQM secured an overall 7.4% dedicated vote bank winning 25 NA seats in 2008, none in Punjab, 51 at Sindh and none at K Pk and Baluchistan. They formed part of the ruling alliance in Center and Sindh while partly resigning from power at the last leg of PPP's term, in a move to launch election campaign for 2013, distancing themselves from the failures and follies of the PPP led government in a trademark move.
MQM is likely to win once again at least 15-25 seats in the NA and 45-55 seats in the provincial assemblies(Mainly Sindh). MQM's power is very less likely to diminish as a potent political actor influencing the financial brain of Pakistan,i-e, Karachi any time in near or distant future. MQM will retain their hold on power through their influence at Karachi which effects the whole national financial health. MQM is expected to retain their dedicated vote bank and try to expand their sphere of influence beyond Sindh province by taking a surprise seat or two elsewhere.
Awami National Party (ANP) . ANP, is a Pushtun Nationalist party formed by Late Khan Abdul Wali Khan, currently led by his son Asfandyar Wali Khan hailing from the province of NWFP, which ANP renamed to Khyber Pakhtonkhwa or in short K Pk in their present term in power. ANP's founding fathers were opposed to the idea of partition of subcontinent at first. They joined PPP's founder Zulfiqar Bhutto in government for a short while in 1970. IN 1972, 1988 and 1990 ANP also came into power for short durations in coalition with bigger parties.
After the ineffective tenure of the religious alliance ruling the K Pk province from 2002 to 2008, and political differences leading to the break up of this governing alliance called MMA ( religious political parties alliance), ANP got a chance to come back into power at their home province and become coalition partners at the central PPP led government.
ANP secured an overall 2% dedicated votes at national level and won 13 seats in the national assembly while gaining 2 seats in Sindh, 48 at K Pk and 4 at Baluchistan. ANP formed the coalition government at K Pk with the support of PPP and also joined the PPP led coalition at the center. ANP's performance at center remained as controversial as that of their coalition leaders at Islamabad. At provincial level, ANP displayed an above average performance in the face of massive reign of terror unleashed by the Islamic Fundamentalist Jihadi outfits against their secular/moderate agenda. ANP fought the war on terror enforced upon Pakistan with their province in the north west as the front line with bravery and dedication. ANP lost their prominent senior leaders and their family members in this war they were forced to fight. The sad saga continues to date with the Pakistani Talibans targeting the ANP leaders now out in the open running their election campaigns. The resolve of ANP to fight this naked aggression and the sacrifices of their leaders is continuously gaining them the "sympathy vote bank" in particular at their home province.
ANP is expected to come out stronger than before as result of upcoming GE-2013 owing to the moral and physical courage their leaders are displaying in the face of Talibans and associated terrorists. Their election campaigns will get bloodier with every passing week, but they are expected to remain steadfast. This quality alone will fetch them enough votes to regain the Provincial government at least. At the center, they are expected to perform better than before and win 15 seats or more. They are expected to also come out strong in Sindh's capital Karachi with their bid to secure few more provincial assembly seats than the 4 won last time in the presence of large ethnic Pashtun population settled there . Overall, ANP irrespective of being a part of much controversial PPP government is likely to perform better and become yet again a major player in national politics.
Jammiat E Ulema E Islam (F) JUI(F) . JUI(F), or the alliance of religious scholars of Islam- led by Maulana Fazl(F) Ur Rehman, who is more a charismatic and colourful politician than anything else. JUI(F) is a potent Islamic party en cashing the vote bank on the name of Islam and possesses a strong dedicated follow ship. JUI(F) is embedded at south western K Pk and few parts of Baluchistan. In the absence of Jammat E Islami which boycotted the 2008 polls under Musharraf rule along with Imran Khan's PTI and others, JUI was able to secure an overall 2.2% votes at national level winning 7 seats at NA, 2 in Punjab, 14 and 10 at K Pk and Baluchistan respectively. JUI(F) under Mualana Fazal is a master of political maneuvering and plays it's cards well to maintain power and status at almost all times. May it be a military dictatorship or democracy, Maulana Fazal Ur Rehman's party's stars shine on the horizon as he knows the trick to maintain a liberal profile while keeping close association with Islamic hardliners, which even include certain militant organizations.
JUI(F)'s performance recently remained at par to their reputation while they extracted maximum benefits for themselves and their supporters keeping their alliance with the fundamentalist groups alive. They are expected to win 3-5 seats at national assembly utilizing their dedicated voters in the name of Islam. It would be a major achievement for them to secure more seats than last GE in the presence of now other major Islamic parties like Jammat E Islami. Imran Khan's PTI is also expected to give JUI(F) at tough competition at their home ground where Imran is gaining popularity. What so ever the case may be, Maulana Fazal Ur Rehman is likely to play his cards right again even with lower seats to bargain with.
Pakistan Muslim League(Functional) PML(F), PML(F) led by the Pir of Pagara Sharif is hot bedded in the province of Sindh. The Pir of Pagara is the chair holder with hundereds of thousands of dedicated sworn followers called the "Hurs". The "Hurs" can even lay their lives on the orders of their Pir( Religious Leader). Voting as per the Pir Sahib's aspiration is a matter of religious duty for them. Beside this dedicated followship, the Pir Pagara enjoys the political clout of a kingmaker in the Pakistani politics. All major parties and their leaders seek political guidance from the Pir Pagara.
The recent change of Pir of Pagara after the demise of last Pir brought to chair an aggressive and expressive Pir of Pagara who is all willing to increase the practical influence of his political outfit PML(F) as a major contender in the politics of Sindh province challenging PPP and MQM at their own turf.
PML(F) in GE 2008 won 5 seats in NA, 3 at Punjab and 8 at Sindh. The party remained mostly in the opposition while acting in exact accordance with the Pir Sahib of Pagara's desires. This time round the PML(F) is leading a major alliance challenging the dominance of PPP and MQM at Sindh. PML(F) is likely to face acute hurdles in maintaining their alliance of parties from different backgrounds and creeds. However, PML(F) is expected to emerge as a major player in the Sindh provincial politics viz a viz national political power circuit in alliance with if not all it's current partners, than few main parties. If the grand alliance of PML(N) and PML(F) somehow materialize, and with the inclusion of some smaller political groups and independent politicians, PML(F) is capable to give a shock to PPP in Sindh. It will be highly interesting to study the ongoing developments and the public response in this regard at Sindh. With the unflinching loyalties of "Hurs" and disgruntled PPP supporters, PML(F) is a strong contender for power at Sindh province making them a major player at national level as well.
Jammat E Islami, JI, founded in 1941 by Maulana Maududi is a strong theological party of the sub continent, in particular, Bangladesh and Pakistan. JI propagates sociopolitical Islam as a way of governance. Jammat came into power with coalition government at the center only once in 1958 and at provincial religious parties alliance at K Pk province in 2002. Jammat enjoys dedicated follow ship in complete country, though small in number but staunch in their loyalties to the Jammat. JI's ideology is closer to the tough stance of Imran Khan's PTI over the US presence in Afghanistan, drone attacks and the War on Terror. This might lead JI to join ranks with PTI in latter stages of the democratic process. JI is likely to enter back in mainstream Pakistani politics by winning few seats in both national and provincial assemblies.
Pakistan Tehreek E Insaaf, PTI , Lead by the charismatic personality of Imran Khan, supported by the youth of Pakistan forming 48% of the population, participating for the first time ever in Pakistani electoral process with a clean slate, can safely be termed as the favourites of GE 2013. The appeal of Imran Khan's personality, the option to see someone new in power and the desire for change by Pakistanis led PTI to emerge as a major contender in GE 2013. Various political heavyweights with conscious and clean reputes joined PTI, making it's all the more credible political force with a future in power politics.
It is interesting to note that the mass support for Imran Khan's PTI is certain to bring huge vote bank in their favour all over the country. However, when it comes to elective politics down to the constituencies level, PML(N) is more likely to win the seats possessing dedicated vote bank there. The business community across Pakistan, specially those holding small and medium level enterprises are also expected to side with PML(N) instead of PTI keeping PML(N)'s past experience and positive performance in government.
PTI is expected to emerge as a major player in the power politics with sizable number of seats at national level and seats in respectable ratio at provincial level. PTI might form an electoral alliance with JI to form the opposition but their chances to make central government irrespective of massive support and public sentiments are least likely owing to following reasons:-
> Lack of experience in electoral process
> Too much dependence on the personality of Imran Khan
> Lack of political flexibility
> Immaturity amongst political players
PTI if remain steadfast will however emerge as a major political force to reckon with and seize power through massive mandate in the next GE. Anything else with regards to GE 2013 will be simply out of the blue..........................But PTI is surely the underdogs this time round. All it takes is a knock out punch for the underdog to defeat the heavyweight, if it has to go that way...............A revolution of youth by voting massively in favour of Imran Khan and PTI would be that knock out punch, having the capacity to turn tables and change fortunes in GE-2013.........The uncertainty, hope and hype makes it all the more exciting a competition, with two parties to watch out for,i-e, PML(N) and PTI coming MAY 11th, 2013.
The support and allegiance of independent legislative members who accounted for 18 in NA, 4 in Punjab and 11 and 12 at K Pk and Baluchistan respectively at GE 2008 is critical for any major party emerging with maximum number of seats after the GE. This time around the numbers are expected to remain the same plus minus one or two. The political bargain to win their support as always will matter very much in making the national level and provincial government of Baluchistan.
So fasten your seat belts and remain ready for a bumpy yet exciting ride, we call the GE-2013.
> First ever democratic changeover of government at Pakistan without a dictator on the helm.
> Independent Judiciary.
> Caretaker government placed through mutual consensus of all political players of Pakistan.
> Independent Election Commission with a mutually selected Chief by all stake holders.
> Military's complete support of the electoral process.
> Establishment's seemingly inability to influence the electoral process.
> Participation of nationalist parties in the Elections at Baluchistan province.
> Emergence of a new political players like Mr Imran Khan and the associated hype and hopes.
Bloodshed, Chaos and mayhem are the hallmark of Pakistani politics, but the Talibans threat to sabotage the process and killing of three candidates till now makes it more than just a threat. Terrorists will surely not stop at this and target the politicians out from their protective shells running their campaigns in particular at Khyber Pakhtonkhwa(K Pk) province, the hotbed of Talibans. Pakistan lost it's two times Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto to this militancy in the last elections of 2008 and saw widespread violence throughout the country as a result. Even than the Elections took place with the party of deceased Benazir Bhutto en cashing upon the "sympathy vote" gained due to the sad demise of their leader and took over the power seizing the opportunity offered in the midst of all the madness and bloodshed. Such are the contrivances of Pakistani political scene in the backdrop of a society under siege of likewise compulsions. Ironically again such precedences prove wrong any assertion that violence or terrorism can block the way of the Pakistani electoral process.
The upcoming polls at Pakistan are however, interesting and happening enough to reverberate the sights and sounds of the bygone era of Pakistani electoral politics. The twist is added by the terrorism by miscreants led by Pakistani Talibans, and resolve of politicians and public alike, refusing to budge in the face of this naked terror. It will surely be the litmus test of Pakistani public's resolve. As per Pakistani Intelligence Agencies, the Pakistani Talibans, denouncing the ongoing democratic process as Un Islamic in association with sister terror outfits, Talibans of Sawat and Lashkar e Jhangwi funded by the hostile states to Pakistan are busy reining terror in complete country targeting innocent civilians aspiring for a positive change through Elections. Political leaders are at the top of the terrorists hit list. These terrorists have so far succeeded a number of times in their nefarious designs while failing at others. In all this terror and darkness, the heartening sight is the mutual consensus amongst all the political players and the majority of the masses at Pakistan, that how may ever be flawed, the democratic form of governance is the only way forward for national integration and progress. They consider their right to vote, a must chance to be availed as their individual effort for the aspiration of peace. This the feeling is prevailing in the public here more often with every passing day and after each terrorist attack. The democratic system it seems to the masses of Pakistan, has the potential to refine itself through the filtration process presented by the General Elections unlike any dictatorial government. These are the vibes I term to be those of, " confident change in Pakistan " coming through the shift in the thought process of all sensible people in this country. This situation also promises a much higher expected voter turn out against the 43.65% recorded turnout of 2008 elections. Least to say, there will be more twists and turns in this process by means of shameful terror, political campaigns and public hype while approaches "May Day" of the General Elections (GE-2013).
With regards to the power politics and strong players on provincial and national level, party wise analysis of major contenders is presented as under:-
> Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), enjoying the sympathy vote in the aftermath of the assassination of their chairperson in 2008 elections came into power, by winning National Assembly(NA)'s 124 elected seats out of total 272. They secured an overall 30.6% vote bank in the complete country. In collaboration with their arch rivals supporting them for restoration of democracy and out of respect of the deceased Benazir Bhutto they formed a coalition government in the center, which they successfully maintained by repeatedly changing their coalition partners through out their tenure. At provincial level they secured 107 seats in Punjab, forming the main opposition, 93 seats at Sindh, forming government there with the coalition of again arch rivals MQM(Muthahida Qaumi Movement), 30 seats at North West Frontier Province(Khyber Pakhtonkhwa) joining Awami National Party(ANP) in forming government who reciprocated the favour at center to the PPP and securing 12 seats at Baluchistan where they were again able to form a coalition government.
The ruling party along with it's coalition could only perform marginally, while the country saw a drastic increase in corruption, inflation, power crises and bad governance. The successes were limited to securing a national mutually agreed finance award agreement, some bold foreign policy initiatives at the end of their tenure and completing their term in power for the first time by a democratically elected government.
In the current elections, even at their hotbed of Sindh province and southern Punjab, PPP is expected to face tough competition in the face of a prodigal performance in power. It is expected that PPP will loose almost all seats at both national and provincial level wheresoever, they face even minute credible opposition. They will however, be able to retain only the rural seats of confirmed electable who influence the financial livelihood of their voters. PPP is also expected to win agricultural belt rural seats for the food price inflation in their complete tenure which greatly benefited the locals of these areas who saw a huge increase in their fortunes. In urban centers and industrial cities/towns, PPP is expected to suffer heavily over the sloppy performance while in power. Their chance of coming back into power is limited to only at provincial level of Sindh, that too with various question marks with MQM's loyal vote bank and Pakistan Muslim League-Functional (PML_F) led by Pir Pagara emerging as a potent force challenging their supremacy in the province.
> Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML_N) led by Mr Nawaz Sharif played a very mature and cool headed role in last five years. They supported the democratic process and helped nullify various attempts to botch the same.In GE-2008 with a dedicated vote of an overall 19.6%, they won 91 NA seats and helped PPP form the central government, which they left subsequently. At their hotbed of Punjab they formed the government independently by securing the highest number of seats i-e, 171. They were able to secure only 9 seats in Sindh, 1 in NWFP and none in Baluchistan.
The performance of PML(N) at center remained controversial as the main opposition party while they failed to practically stop the rampant corruption at national level and the power crises. To their credit is the support they extended towards the democratic process and refraining from sabotaging the same irrespective of number of opportunities presented due to the ineptness of PPP government. At provincial level of Punjab where the government led by Mr Shahbaz Sharif, was restrained to perform at the optimum due to the severe energy deficit. However, mass development projects were even than taken up by the Punjab government and completed in time despite all the hurdles to their credit.
Mr Nawaz Sharif remain out of practical governance while concentrating his efforts at improving his party's vote bank at Sindh and NWFP, now K Pk (Khyber Pakhtonkhwa) province. He also successfully sabotaged the Musharraf Era political alliances against his party and shaped a pitch in five years which now favours his team's potential to the max. By far the most PML(N) is the strongest contender to form the national government, and that in Punjab with only competition it faces from cricket star turned politician Imran Khan and his party Pakistan Tehreek E Insaaf (PTI) which means the justice movement of Pakistan. PML(N) is expected to retain almost all of their rural area seats in Punjab, where they have loyal vote bank dedicated to their party. Punjab also holds the maximum population hence electoral seats in the country. PML(N) is expected to perform better in K Pk this time, while in the province of Sindh, if they are able to strike a desired coalition with the PML(F), who knows?, we see PML(N) part of the treasury benches in the Sindh provincial assembly. At present it seems that PML(N) will be able to come into power if they succeed in forging a successful coalition with like minded parties and wooing the successful independent politicians .
Pakistan Muslim League(Q), PML(Q) , termed as the King's party was engineered to break the Nawaz Sharif's Clan power by General Pervaiz Musharraf and came into power with the active support of the establishment under the auspices of the said dictator. Under the seasoned leadership of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, the party survived till date and formed part of ruling coalition with the PPP at the center in the last year of their power. The party has been broken and badgered by skillful maneuvering of PML(N) bosses and does not possess any winning chance to form future government anywhere in the country. But behold, the Chaudries of Gujrat who can pull a rabbit out of their hat every other time. PML(Q) is expected to win few seats in the national and provincial legislatures at the most. In any case, their hay days are over by a big margin in the present situation.
PML(Q), in GE-2008, held under the rule of Perwaiz Musharraf secured an overall 23% votes winning 34 NA seats. They were able to win 84 seats in Punjab, 9 in Sindh, 6 at NWFP and 18 in Baluchistan. However, with the passage of time, 18 of the party's most prominent NA leaders broke away from PML(Q) leaving it in a limbo. A huge number of Punjab assembly members also broke ranks with PML(Q) to join PML(N). At the province of Baluchistan, with the participation of all nationalist and other parties, the likelihood of majority seats is very rare this time around in the backdrop of negative public sentiments against the party's founding father, General Perwaiz Musharraf.
The best chance for PML(Q) in the upcoming elections is to win half of their seats if they could, compared to 2008 elections in order to retain some credibility and for the sake of face saving. It is expected that if things go as per PML(Q)'s plan, that might just be possible, with some ifs and buts off course.
Muthadda Qaumi Movement(MQM) , MQM, is an ethnic party of Urdu speaking population of Pakistan, aspiring a national status. MQM, is remotely controlled by their controversial leader Mr Iltaf Hussain from London and forms a major political force of Urban Sindh to include the financial nerve center of Pakistan, Karachi. MQM skillfully managed to be part of all three previous governments in the country while maintaining a distinct political identity. Their hold on the metropolis of Karachi is critical for any Pakistani government for the financial well being of the country.
MQM secured an overall 7.4% dedicated vote bank winning 25 NA seats in 2008, none in Punjab, 51 at Sindh and none at K Pk and Baluchistan. They formed part of the ruling alliance in Center and Sindh while partly resigning from power at the last leg of PPP's term, in a move to launch election campaign for 2013, distancing themselves from the failures and follies of the PPP led government in a trademark move.
MQM is likely to win once again at least 15-25 seats in the NA and 45-55 seats in the provincial assemblies(Mainly Sindh). MQM's power is very less likely to diminish as a potent political actor influencing the financial brain of Pakistan,i-e, Karachi any time in near or distant future. MQM will retain their hold on power through their influence at Karachi which effects the whole national financial health. MQM is expected to retain their dedicated vote bank and try to expand their sphere of influence beyond Sindh province by taking a surprise seat or two elsewhere.
Awami National Party (ANP) . ANP, is a Pushtun Nationalist party formed by Late Khan Abdul Wali Khan, currently led by his son Asfandyar Wali Khan hailing from the province of NWFP, which ANP renamed to Khyber Pakhtonkhwa or in short K Pk in their present term in power. ANP's founding fathers were opposed to the idea of partition of subcontinent at first. They joined PPP's founder Zulfiqar Bhutto in government for a short while in 1970. IN 1972, 1988 and 1990 ANP also came into power for short durations in coalition with bigger parties.
After the ineffective tenure of the religious alliance ruling the K Pk province from 2002 to 2008, and political differences leading to the break up of this governing alliance called MMA ( religious political parties alliance), ANP got a chance to come back into power at their home province and become coalition partners at the central PPP led government.
ANP secured an overall 2% dedicated votes at national level and won 13 seats in the national assembly while gaining 2 seats in Sindh, 48 at K Pk and 4 at Baluchistan. ANP formed the coalition government at K Pk with the support of PPP and also joined the PPP led coalition at the center. ANP's performance at center remained as controversial as that of their coalition leaders at Islamabad. At provincial level, ANP displayed an above average performance in the face of massive reign of terror unleashed by the Islamic Fundamentalist Jihadi outfits against their secular/moderate agenda. ANP fought the war on terror enforced upon Pakistan with their province in the north west as the front line with bravery and dedication. ANP lost their prominent senior leaders and their family members in this war they were forced to fight. The sad saga continues to date with the Pakistani Talibans targeting the ANP leaders now out in the open running their election campaigns. The resolve of ANP to fight this naked aggression and the sacrifices of their leaders is continuously gaining them the "sympathy vote bank" in particular at their home province.
ANP is expected to come out stronger than before as result of upcoming GE-2013 owing to the moral and physical courage their leaders are displaying in the face of Talibans and associated terrorists. Their election campaigns will get bloodier with every passing week, but they are expected to remain steadfast. This quality alone will fetch them enough votes to regain the Provincial government at least. At the center, they are expected to perform better than before and win 15 seats or more. They are expected to also come out strong in Sindh's capital Karachi with their bid to secure few more provincial assembly seats than the 4 won last time in the presence of large ethnic Pashtun population settled there . Overall, ANP irrespective of being a part of much controversial PPP government is likely to perform better and become yet again a major player in national politics.
Jammiat E Ulema E Islam (F) JUI(F) . JUI(F), or the alliance of religious scholars of Islam- led by Maulana Fazl(F) Ur Rehman, who is more a charismatic and colourful politician than anything else. JUI(F) is a potent Islamic party en cashing the vote bank on the name of Islam and possesses a strong dedicated follow ship. JUI(F) is embedded at south western K Pk and few parts of Baluchistan. In the absence of Jammat E Islami which boycotted the 2008 polls under Musharraf rule along with Imran Khan's PTI and others, JUI was able to secure an overall 2.2% votes at national level winning 7 seats at NA, 2 in Punjab, 14 and 10 at K Pk and Baluchistan respectively. JUI(F) under Mualana Fazal is a master of political maneuvering and plays it's cards well to maintain power and status at almost all times. May it be a military dictatorship or democracy, Maulana Fazal Ur Rehman's party's stars shine on the horizon as he knows the trick to maintain a liberal profile while keeping close association with Islamic hardliners, which even include certain militant organizations.
JUI(F)'s performance recently remained at par to their reputation while they extracted maximum benefits for themselves and their supporters keeping their alliance with the fundamentalist groups alive. They are expected to win 3-5 seats at national assembly utilizing their dedicated voters in the name of Islam. It would be a major achievement for them to secure more seats than last GE in the presence of now other major Islamic parties like Jammat E Islami. Imran Khan's PTI is also expected to give JUI(F) at tough competition at their home ground where Imran is gaining popularity. What so ever the case may be, Maulana Fazal Ur Rehman is likely to play his cards right again even with lower seats to bargain with.
Pakistan Muslim League(Functional) PML(F), PML(F) led by the Pir of Pagara Sharif is hot bedded in the province of Sindh. The Pir of Pagara is the chair holder with hundereds of thousands of dedicated sworn followers called the "Hurs". The "Hurs" can even lay their lives on the orders of their Pir( Religious Leader). Voting as per the Pir Sahib's aspiration is a matter of religious duty for them. Beside this dedicated followship, the Pir Pagara enjoys the political clout of a kingmaker in the Pakistani politics. All major parties and their leaders seek political guidance from the Pir Pagara.
The recent change of Pir of Pagara after the demise of last Pir brought to chair an aggressive and expressive Pir of Pagara who is all willing to increase the practical influence of his political outfit PML(F) as a major contender in the politics of Sindh province challenging PPP and MQM at their own turf.
PML(F) in GE 2008 won 5 seats in NA, 3 at Punjab and 8 at Sindh. The party remained mostly in the opposition while acting in exact accordance with the Pir Sahib of Pagara's desires. This time round the PML(F) is leading a major alliance challenging the dominance of PPP and MQM at Sindh. PML(F) is likely to face acute hurdles in maintaining their alliance of parties from different backgrounds and creeds. However, PML(F) is expected to emerge as a major player in the Sindh provincial politics viz a viz national political power circuit in alliance with if not all it's current partners, than few main parties. If the grand alliance of PML(N) and PML(F) somehow materialize, and with the inclusion of some smaller political groups and independent politicians, PML(F) is capable to give a shock to PPP in Sindh. It will be highly interesting to study the ongoing developments and the public response in this regard at Sindh. With the unflinching loyalties of "Hurs" and disgruntled PPP supporters, PML(F) is a strong contender for power at Sindh province making them a major player at national level as well.
Jammat E Islami, JI, founded in 1941 by Maulana Maududi is a strong theological party of the sub continent, in particular, Bangladesh and Pakistan. JI propagates sociopolitical Islam as a way of governance. Jammat came into power with coalition government at the center only once in 1958 and at provincial religious parties alliance at K Pk province in 2002. Jammat enjoys dedicated follow ship in complete country, though small in number but staunch in their loyalties to the Jammat. JI's ideology is closer to the tough stance of Imran Khan's PTI over the US presence in Afghanistan, drone attacks and the War on Terror. This might lead JI to join ranks with PTI in latter stages of the democratic process. JI is likely to enter back in mainstream Pakistani politics by winning few seats in both national and provincial assemblies.
Pakistan Tehreek E Insaaf, PTI , Lead by the charismatic personality of Imran Khan, supported by the youth of Pakistan forming 48% of the population, participating for the first time ever in Pakistani electoral process with a clean slate, can safely be termed as the favourites of GE 2013. The appeal of Imran Khan's personality, the option to see someone new in power and the desire for change by Pakistanis led PTI to emerge as a major contender in GE 2013. Various political heavyweights with conscious and clean reputes joined PTI, making it's all the more credible political force with a future in power politics.
It is interesting to note that the mass support for Imran Khan's PTI is certain to bring huge vote bank in their favour all over the country. However, when it comes to elective politics down to the constituencies level, PML(N) is more likely to win the seats possessing dedicated vote bank there. The business community across Pakistan, specially those holding small and medium level enterprises are also expected to side with PML(N) instead of PTI keeping PML(N)'s past experience and positive performance in government.
PTI is expected to emerge as a major player in the power politics with sizable number of seats at national level and seats in respectable ratio at provincial level. PTI might form an electoral alliance with JI to form the opposition but their chances to make central government irrespective of massive support and public sentiments are least likely owing to following reasons:-
> Lack of experience in electoral process
> Too much dependence on the personality of Imran Khan
> Lack of political flexibility
> Immaturity amongst political players
PTI if remain steadfast will however emerge as a major political force to reckon with and seize power through massive mandate in the next GE. Anything else with regards to GE 2013 will be simply out of the blue..........................But PTI is surely the underdogs this time round. All it takes is a knock out punch for the underdog to defeat the heavyweight, if it has to go that way...............A revolution of youth by voting massively in favour of Imran Khan and PTI would be that knock out punch, having the capacity to turn tables and change fortunes in GE-2013.........The uncertainty, hope and hype makes it all the more exciting a competition, with two parties to watch out for,i-e, PML(N) and PTI coming MAY 11th, 2013.
The support and allegiance of independent legislative members who accounted for 18 in NA, 4 in Punjab and 11 and 12 at K Pk and Baluchistan respectively at GE 2008 is critical for any major party emerging with maximum number of seats after the GE. This time around the numbers are expected to remain the same plus minus one or two. The political bargain to win their support as always will matter very much in making the national level and provincial government of Baluchistan.
So fasten your seat belts and remain ready for a bumpy yet exciting ride, we call the GE-2013.
Is it first election under democracy?....who was in power through out in 90's when we changed 4 govt in 8 years ?
ReplyDeleteDear Mr Azeem Shabbir,
DeleteYour observations with regards to the elections in the 90s are very valid. However, the significance of the current elections with regards to the completion of the predecessor's tenure and the willingness of establishment to wholeheartedly support the democratic process rather engineer the same is unprecedented.