Case Study-Impact of Musharrafs Kashmir Policy on the South Asia

The Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan historically formed the foremost bone of contention amongst both countries bilateral ties. The nuclear armed countries present the potential of a doomsday scenario with fears of nuclear holocaust in case of an all out war at present. The region is the heaviest armed conflict zone in the world having far reaching effects for complete globe. However, under the Musharraf regime, a decade earlier, Pakistan took a major shift in its Kashmir Policy under the US led peace initiative. This policy shift at one hand fundamentally altered the Pakistani support for the armed freedom struggle at Indian part of Kashmir and on the other, saw India rising out of ashes in Kashmir to emerge as a winner all around with shining colours. In this paper we shall study to seek the impact of Pakistan's reversal of its Kashmir doctrine and see as to how this u turn drastically rather, devastatingly effected the Pakistani internal security situation having all round consequences for the country while India reaped comprehensive glory out of this strategic maneuvering.
 

 [1] In 1947, British rule in India ended with the creation of two new nations: the Union of India and the Dominion Of Pakistan, while British suzerainty over the 562 Indian princely states ended. According to the Indian Independence Act 1947, "the suzerainty of His Majesty over the Indian States lapses, and with it, all treaties and agreements in force at the date of the passing of this Act between His Majesty and the rulers of Indian States", so the states were left to choose whether to join India or Pakistan or to remain independent. Jammu and Kashmir, the largest of the princely states, had a predominantly Muslim population, while having a Hindu ruler (Maharaja Hari Singh.) On partition Pakistan expected Kashmir to be annexed to it.
In October 1947, Muslim revolutionaries in western Kashmir and Pakistani tribals from Dir entered Kashmir, intending to liberate it from Dogra rule. Unable to withstand the invasion, the Maharaja signed the Instrument of Accession on 25 October 1947 that was accepted by the government of India on 27 October 1947.

 The intensity of this dispute can be ascertained by the fact that, Pakistan and India fought three wars over the issue in 1947, 1965 and 1999 Kargil conflict respectively.

[2] At the end of the "cold war" era, the Indians openly and covertly supported the Russian rebuttal in the shape of fomenting terror in Pakistan, for the latter's support to the USA in the cold war. Pakistan saw widespread terrorism and huge civilian casualties as a result of mindless bombings at its urban centers. Pakistani intelligence agencies were able to arrest Indian spies belonging to their premier Intelligence outfit, the "Research and Analysis Wing" (RAW). Sarbajeet Singh is one such case who is still under Pakistani detention having confessed to the above stated crimes. There was an urgent need to check the Indian clandestine aggression towards Pakistan in providing material, technical and tactical support to the Russians at every level. This necessity in the backdrop of the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan presented an opportunity in itself to the Pakistanis.  The late General Zia Ul Haq was presented with a plan by ISI which was based upon systematically reinforcing the already established, but weak Kashmir freedom struggle in the Indian held Kashmir. The ideological ground works were already in place at Kashmir as a result of massive humanitarian violations by the Indian security forces deployed at Indian held Kashmir. The physical resources to fight and support a successful insurgency were held with Pakistan in the shape of trained gorilla warfare force of "Mujaheddin" . The huge Pakistani and Afghan Pashtun warriors or mercenaries were readily available to be infiltrated in Kashmir who got De induced from the Afghanistan theater on the termination of the "Cold War" . The plan was approved by Zia and hence, started the sophisticated Kashmir Jihad network by the ISI by initially utilizing services of 50,000 registered "Mujaheddin" force. The vast experience of cold war and related resources made it a piece of cake for the ISI to successfully implemented the said reinforcement of the freedom struggle or if fairly termed, an armed insurgency achieving its goals straight away.

The Pakistani game plan not only refrained the Indians from fomenting trouble at Pakistan on the Russian's behest but also committed [2] 600,000 Indian military/security forces at Kashmir to fight the insurgency. The intense gorilla warfare tactics and the ferocity of the Mujaheddin left the Indian security establishment in an awe. They felt bogged down in a war they were neither trained for nor were equipped to fight.

As a result [3] Pakistan fundamentally altered the dimensions of the conflict in Kashmir. On one level, the provision of arms, training and finance dramatically heightened the firepower and overall proficiency of the militants on the ground.

The Indian Army's atrocities and crimes against humanity further deteriorated the situation into a mess for the Indian International outlook having direct adverse impact on their already troubled economy. The financial costs of fighting the insurgency and maintaining almost half of Indian Army at the Indian Occupied Kashmir ran into trillions of rupees. The foreign direct investments(FDI) thinned out due to the stated situation for India while the focus of Indian government was captured by the Kashmir insurgency, the Indian economy suffered like never before.[4] In 1996 alone India was only able to attract USD 2 billion FDI against a target of 10 billion US dollars. These problems combined with power shortages constrained economic growth by limiting industrial and service sector productivity at India.

Under the circumstances India suffered loss of life in thousands besides humongous financial cost effects.[5]  It is estimated that during the uprising in Kashmir covering the period 1990 to 1998 the Indian security forces had lost over 6,000 officers and soldiers killed and double that amount wounded. [6] Indian Kashmir lost 27 million tourists from 1989-02 leading to tourism revenue loss of $3.6 billion for India.

Although the effects of the Kashmir conflict never directly hindered the political economy of India besides Indian held Kashmir, however, the indirect effects of the conflict sounded alarms all over the Indian state. There are reportedly more than 20 confirmed separatists movements active in India. Kashmirs freedom struggle fueled by Pakistan was an inspiration for all those separatists movements. With almost half of Indian security apparatus committed in Kashmir alone, India was simply a hostage to all this trouble, having huge consequences for their economic and political growth which was literally at siege.     

Pakistan saw a dramatic shift of executive power in 1999 with General Pervaiz Musharraf taking over the government through a military coup. As it is identical with any military coup de etat, Musharraf's regime lacked essentially the roots in public which can only be provided through a democratic mandate which Musharraf lacked. But 9/11 proved to be an ironic blessing in disguise for Musharraf regime and he by siding with the Americans and the west gained the crucial international support for his rule.He held general elections in 2002 but those were mostly engineered to bring his own party, PML(Q) or the so called "Kings Party" to power. Musharraf regime was in essence supported by the US/Western world for his stance on the "War on Terror", which ultimately turned into "The War Within" for Pakistan. For the fiscal and political support afforded by the US led western world, Musharraf was but inclined to favour the US policies and designs in the region.

The US extravagant spending in the Iraq war fiasco and at Afghanistan, along with a dire need to create a partner in the region who can present a strategic counterweight to China dictated the Americans to forge an alliance with India. By offering a civil nuclear deal, US hoped gaining access for its businesses with related benefits at India. While a strategic alliance with India best suited the US who wanted to create a regional protege who could police the South Asian region while also keeping a check on the rising Chinese influence in the area. With this background the US diplomatic managers started wooing the Indians back in 2003.

India historically harbours hegemonic designs for the region. For this desire of India, a clout at Afghanistan and strategically engulfing the Pakistanis through hook or by crook presented a formidable challenge for the Indians as always. Sino-Pak close ties were and still are a common soar pill for both India and USA. The most critical barrier to any Indian move regaining control of the region was the Kashmir freedom struggle, which tied not only Indian resources but questioned their credibility as a self proclaimed regional power as well. Over the years the Indians were provided with active support from the state of Israel, to counter the Pakistani supported insurgency, but to no avail it was. However continued the Indo-Israel strategic cooperation whose only logical reason seemed to be a common enmity towards the only nuclear armed Islamic Republic in the world.

The American wooing, probably under the Zionist lobbying provided India with an opportunity, beyond their wildest imagination.[2] India reportedly demanded the US that in order to go ahead with the strategic alliance an assurance from the latter's Pakistani protege Pervaiz Musharraf was required to take a U turn on the Kashmir Policy of Pakistan. They demanded from the US, in one way or the other to make Musharraf backtrack the ISI and the Pakistani state in sponsoring and supporting the armed insurgency at Kashmir. This formed the basis by India for accepting any US proposal to forge a marriage of convenience of any kind.

The details of how the US sold the idea to Musharraf remains obscure, however as reported by a brave soul, may Allah bless him always for his tenacity and bravery, Late Saleem Shahzad wrote,  [7]  Heavily backed by US assurances of aid and support, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf hastily took a U-turn on his country's Kashmir policy and talked of "meeting halfway somewhere" in the hope of emerging as the unequivocally US-backed leader of the subcontinent who had succeeded in resolving the Kashmir dispute. The Musharraf government even went to the extent of closing all training camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir used as bases for cross-border militancy. Pakistan also turned a blind eye to India erecting a giant fence along the Line of Control that separates the two sections of Kashmir, in contravention of United Nations resolutions which suggest that Kashmir is a disputed territory and thus any demarcation should be discouraged.

[2] By end 2003-04 Musharraf ordered all ISI activities to be periodically seized supporting and operating the Kashmir Jihad. By end 2004, the process was completed to dismantle the complete insurgency support mechanism in the Indian occupied Kashmir with the Mujaheddin units disbanded. various prominent leaders of  the Kashmiri freedom struggle at Pakistan were either house arrested or they mysteriously disappeared from the horizon.[7] Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil of the defunct Harkatul Mujahideen, Maulana Abdul Jabbar and Abdullah Shah Mazhar of the defunct Jaish-i-Mohammed and many other prominent names have been placed under "informal" detention at the behest of the US and are still under observation. More than 3,000 activists from these organizations are also missing from their homes.

 A lot of patriotic/nationalist/ Islamist and left wing activists were angered by these developments. The ISI suffered a critical blow to its credibility and repute while loosing precious assets and resources. Most of the deserting fighters possessed critical knowledge with respect to ISI's infrastructure and capabilities.

 In short and crisp terms, Musharraf not only completely submitted to the Indian desires via US, but also compromised decade long sacrifices of his only constituency at Pakistan, the Army and its very own trained and run Mujahedin. .[7] This was done in the hope that Kashmir would be recognized as a land of seven regions, on US insinuation, and that India would agree on a formula which suggests the "division of Kashmir" on religious, ethnic and geographical lines. Yet India rejected all ideas except that "Kashmir is an integral part of India".

The scenario afforded India a breather of fresh air it was gasping to obtain. In turn the US got hold of their desired aspirations with a start with India-US civil nuclear deal or the so called 123 agreement.[2] The Indian security forces reorganized and used the huge amount of money left at their disposal while they were free from fighting an insurgency on firstly fencing and censoring their borders with Pakistan including the illegal fencing of the Line of Control. In the second phase the actively planned a sabotage mechanism to give Pakistan a taste of their own medicine. Indians opened up 21 different information centers all along the Pak-Afghan borders, fully facilitated by the USA with the technical support of Israel. These so called information centers ran clandestine operations by hiring the services the now out of job, Kashmir Jihad Mujahedin and mercenaries of Central Asian dissent through third parties to target Pakistani military and civil segments deep within their own turf. The ISI found proof of Indian intelligence involvement in Pakistani terror attacks by the Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The majority fighting force of these anti Pakistani state elements comprised of fighters previously deployed by the ISI at the Kashmir Insurgency who were used to target the ISI itself. The situation persists to date.

In one swift move the table turned on Pakistan with Musharraf taking a u turn under dubious circumstances on the Kashmir policy of Pakistan. This turned not only the Pakistani once prided asset, the Mujaheddin against the Pakistan Army, but these fighters who only knew how to fight as a way of life and to earn bread and butter for their dear ones became indirect hired guns for the Indians. Pakistanis bogged down in the pit designed for the purpose by the enemies of this country. Pakistan is to date fighting the terror which was inflicted by either naivety of its leadership or through their weaknesses at large. Pakistan suffers and bleeds on daily basis while Indians are conveniently fomenting terrorism at Pakistan through Afghanistan.The Baluchistan separatists movements are directly funded and supported by the Indians while it is international knowledge. India regularly funds terror attacks all over Pakistan, while the latter desperately observes.

US Secretary of defense Chuck Hagel suggested in a previously unreleased 2011 speech that India has for many years sponsored terrorist activities against Pakistan in Afghanistan. In a speech, delivered at Oklahoma's Cameron University, Chuck Hagel said: "India for some time has always used Afghanistan as a second front, and India has over the years financed problems for Pakistan on that side of the border".

"And you can carry that into many dimensions, the point being the tense, fragmented relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been there for many, many years," remarked Chuck Hagel who was a US senator at the time.

While Pakistan got infested with the Indian sponsored terror as a result of the Musharraf led U turn on Kashmir, India flourished in almost all aspects. Free of its major worries, i-e, Kashmir Insurgency, India quietly and quickly regained the international stature backed by their newly found love affair with the US and the Indian economy went all bullish. India off course introduced the economic reforms backed by the US by freeing its markets, but the international repute in the aftermath of the end of Kashmir armed insurgency viz a viz its effects on various separatists movements at India brought back the international investor confidence in the Indian economy. [8] In 2003-04, India’s GDP growth rate jumped to 8.5%. [9] The Indian economy grew at a sustained growth rate of 9% from yr 2003-04 to 2008. On July 18 2005,  President Bush and Prime Minister Singh announced to enter into a nuclear agreement in Washington. The Indian-US nuclear agreement also known as the 123 agreement and it's resultant implementation in 2008 will provide India with not only the energy required to feed its booming economy but also comes with it the, international prestige and acclamation, associated with mingling with the "big boys" of global politics while India became the legitimate member of the Nuclear Club, a privilege not even extended to Israel by the west.                                     

References
1. Kashmir Conflict: www.wikipedia.org
2. Writer's interview with  high ranking Pakistani Ex Intelligence(ISI) Officer.
3. Peter Chalk: Pakistan's Role In Kashmir Insurgency,Rand Corporation Research Report ( www.rand.org 2001)
4. David Dickens: More than Bombs and Border Tension; India and Regional Security, Published by Center for Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand, 1997)
5. Lt Gen(Rtd) Sardar FS Lodi: India's Kargil Operations,An Analysis ( Pakistan Defense Journal, Nov 1999)
6. Strategic foresight Think Tank of India: Shocking Calculations ( Weekly Independent, March 11, 2004 )
7. Mr Syed Saleem Shahzad (Late): Musharraf Ups and Ante on Kashmir ( Broader Middle East, 2005) http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/Broader-Middle-East/Shahzad-Syed-Saleem/Musharraf-ups-the-ante-on-Kashmir
8. T N Srinivasan, China, India and the World Economy.
9. IMF Working Paper by Arvind Virmani: ( Accelerating and Sustaining Growth, Economic and Political Lessons, 2012 )

An Analysis- Elections 2013-Pakistan

It is difficult to describe the Pakistani Electoral process with the help of any particular model related to the modern world democratic process. To understand the Pakistani politics based upon, clans, kinsmen ship ,economic pressure groups and establishment backed pawns, one needs to study deep down into the roots and on ground sociopolitical scenario of almost every district and division as separate case. The overall public sentiments does matter in an outcome of an election at Pakistan, but engineering the process through systematic corruption have also been the trick of the trade in the past by the Pakistani establishment. However, public sentiments have always been critically analyzed and forms the basis for either backing off or exploitation of the same. This time round however, the situation is unique due to various factors which are First in the history of Pakistan. They are :

>  First ever democratic changeover of government at Pakistan without a dictator on the helm.
>  Independent Judiciary.
>  Caretaker government placed through mutual consensus of all political players of Pakistan.
>  Independent Election Commission with a mutually selected Chief by all stake holders.
>  Military's complete support of the electoral process.
>  Establishment's seemingly inability to influence the electoral process.
>  Participation of nationalist parties in the Elections at Baluchistan province.
>  Emergence of a new political players like Mr Imran Khan and the associated hype and hopes.

Bloodshed, Chaos and mayhem are the hallmark of Pakistani politics, but the Talibans threat to sabotage the process and killing of three candidates till now makes it more than just a threat. Terrorists will surely not stop at this and target the politicians out from their protective shells running their campaigns in particular at Khyber Pakhtonkhwa(K Pk) province, the hotbed of Talibans. Pakistan lost it's two times Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto to this militancy in the last elections of 2008 and saw widespread violence throughout the country as a result. Even than the Elections took place with the party of deceased Benazir Bhutto en cashing upon the "sympathy vote" gained due to the sad demise of their leader and took over the power seizing the opportunity offered in the midst of all the madness and bloodshed. Such are the contrivances of Pakistani political scene in the backdrop of a society under siege of likewise compulsions. Ironically again such precedences prove wrong any assertion that violence or terrorism can block the way of the Pakistani electoral process.

The upcoming polls at Pakistan are however, interesting and happening enough to reverberate the sights and sounds of the bygone era of Pakistani electoral politics. The twist is added by the terrorism by miscreants led by Pakistani Talibans,  and resolve of politicians and public alike, refusing to budge in the face of this naked terror. It will surely be the litmus test of Pakistani public's resolve. As per Pakistani Intelligence Agencies, the Pakistani Talibans, denouncing the ongoing democratic process as Un Islamic  in association with sister terror outfits, Talibans of Sawat and Lashkar e Jhangwi funded by the hostile states to Pakistan are busy reining terror in complete country targeting  innocent civilians aspiring for a positive change through Elections. Political leaders are at the top of the terrorists hit list. These terrorists have so far succeeded a number of times in their nefarious designs while failing at others. In all this terror and darkness, the heartening sight is the mutual consensus amongst all the political players and the majority of the masses at Pakistan, that how may ever be flawed, the democratic form of governance is the only way forward for national integration and progress. They consider their right to vote, a must chance to be availed as their individual effort for the aspiration of peace. This the feeling is prevailing in the public here more often with every passing day and after each terrorist attack. The democratic system it seems to the masses of Pakistan, has the potential to refine itself through the filtration process presented by the General Elections unlike any dictatorial government. These are the vibes I term to be those of, " confident change in Pakistan " coming through the shift in the thought process of all sensible people in this country. This situation also promises a much higher expected voter turn out against the 43.65% recorded turnout of 2008 elections.  Least to say, there will be more twists and turns in this process by means of shameful terror, political campaigns and public hype while approaches "May Day" of  the General Elections (GE-2013). 

With regards to the power politics and strong players on provincial and national level, party wise analysis of major contenders is presented as under:-

> Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), enjoying the sympathy vote in the aftermath of the assassination of their chairperson in 2008 elections came into power, by winning National Assembly(NA)'s 124 elected seats out of total 272. They secured an overall 30.6% vote bank in the complete country. In collaboration with their arch rivals supporting them for restoration of democracy and out of respect of the deceased Benazir Bhutto they formed a coalition government in the center, which they successfully maintained by repeatedly changing their coalition partners through out their tenure. At provincial level they secured 107 seats in Punjab, forming the main opposition, 93 seats at Sindh, forming government there with the coalition of again arch rivals MQM(Muthahida Qaumi Movement), 30 seats at North West Frontier Province(Khyber Pakhtonkhwa) joining Awami National Party(ANP) in forming government who reciprocated the favour at center to the PPP and securing 12 seats at Baluchistan where they were again able to form a coalition government.

The ruling party along with it's coalition could only perform marginally, while the country saw a drastic increase in corruption, inflation, power crises and bad governance. The successes were limited to securing a national mutually agreed finance award agreement, some bold foreign policy initiatives at the end of their tenure and completing their term in power for the first time by a democratically elected government.

In the current elections, even at their hotbed of Sindh province and southern Punjab, PPP is expected to face tough competition in the face of a prodigal performance in power. It is expected that PPP will loose almost all seats at both national and provincial level wheresoever, they face even minute credible opposition. They will however, be able to retain only the rural seats of confirmed electable who influence the financial livelihood of their voters. PPP is also expected to win agricultural belt rural seats for the food price inflation in their complete tenure which greatly benefited the locals of these areas who saw a huge increase in their fortunes. In urban centers and industrial cities/towns, PPP is expected to suffer heavily over the sloppy performance while in power. Their chance of coming back into power is limited to only at provincial level of Sindh, that too with various question marks with MQM's loyal vote bank and Pakistan Muslim League-Functional (PML_F) led by Pir Pagara emerging as a potent force challenging their supremacy in the province.

> Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML_N)  led by Mr Nawaz Sharif played a very mature and cool headed role in last five years. They supported the democratic process and helped nullify various attempts to botch the same.In GE-2008 with a dedicated vote of an overall 19.6%, they won 91 NA seats and helped PPP form the central government, which they left subsequently. At their hotbed of Punjab they formed the government independently by securing the highest number of seats i-e, 171. They were able to secure only 9 seats in Sindh, 1 in NWFP and none in Baluchistan.

The performance of PML(N) at center remained controversial as the main opposition party while they failed to practically stop the rampant corruption at national level and the power crises. To their credit is the support they extended towards the democratic process and refraining from sabotaging the same irrespective of number of opportunities presented due to the ineptness of PPP government. At provincial level of Punjab where the government led by Mr Shahbaz Sharif, was restrained to perform at the optimum due to the severe energy deficit. However, mass development projects were even than taken up by the Punjab government and completed in time despite all the hurdles to their credit.

Mr Nawaz Sharif remain out of practical governance while concentrating his efforts at improving his party's vote bank at Sindh and NWFP, now K Pk (Khyber Pakhtonkhwa) province. He also successfully sabotaged the Musharraf Era political alliances against his party and shaped a pitch in five years which now favours his team's potential to the max. By far the most PML(N) is the strongest contender to form the national government, and that in Punjab with only competition it faces from cricket star turned politician Imran Khan and his party Pakistan Tehreek E Insaaf (PTI) which means the justice movement of Pakistan. PML(N) is expected to retain almost all of their rural area seats in Punjab, where they have loyal vote bank dedicated to their party. Punjab also holds the maximum population hence electoral seats in the country. PML(N) is expected to perform better in K Pk this time, while in the province of Sindh, if they are able to strike a desired coalition with the PML(F), who knows?, we see PML(N) part of the treasury benches in the Sindh provincial assembly. At present it seems that PML(N) will be able to come into power  if they succeed in forging a successful coalition with like minded parties and wooing the successful independent politicians .

Pakistan Muslim League(Q), PML(Q) , termed as the King's party was engineered to break the Nawaz Sharif's Clan power by General Pervaiz Musharraf and came into power with the active support of the establishment under the auspices of the said dictator. Under the seasoned leadership of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, the party survived till date and formed part of ruling coalition with the PPP at the center in the last year of their power. The party has been broken and badgered by skillful maneuvering of PML(N) bosses and does not possess any winning chance to form future government anywhere in the country. But behold, the Chaudries of Gujrat who can pull a rabbit out of their hat every other time. PML(Q) is expected to win few seats in the national and provincial legislatures at the most. In any case, their hay days are over by a big margin in the present situation.

PML(Q), in GE-2008, held under the rule of Perwaiz Musharraf secured an overall 23% votes winning 34 NA seats. They were able to win 84 seats in Punjab, 9 in Sindh, 6 at NWFP and 18 in Baluchistan. However, with the passage of time, 18 of the party's most prominent NA leaders broke away from PML(Q) leaving it in a limbo. A huge number of Punjab assembly members also broke ranks with PML(Q) to join PML(N). At the province of Baluchistan, with the participation of all nationalist and other parties, the likelihood of majority seats is very rare this time around in the backdrop of negative public sentiments against the party's founding father, General Perwaiz Musharraf.

The best chance for PML(Q) in the upcoming elections is to win half of their seats if they could, compared to 2008 elections in order to retain some credibility and for the sake of face saving. It is expected that if things go as per PML(Q)'s plan, that might just be possible, with some ifs and buts off course.

Muthadda Qaumi Movement(MQM) , MQM, is an ethnic party of Urdu speaking population of Pakistan, aspiring a national status. MQM, is remotely controlled by their controversial leader Mr Iltaf Hussain from London and forms a major political force of Urban Sindh to include the financial nerve center of Pakistan, Karachi. MQM skillfully managed to be part of all three previous governments in the country while maintaining a distinct political identity. Their hold on the metropolis of Karachi is critical for any Pakistani government for the financial well being of the country.

MQM secured an overall 7.4% dedicated vote bank winning 25 NA seats in 2008, none in Punjab, 51 at Sindh and none at K Pk and Baluchistan. They formed part of the ruling alliance in Center and Sindh while partly resigning from power at the last leg of PPP's term, in a move to launch election campaign for 2013, distancing themselves from the failures and follies of the PPP led government in a trademark move.

MQM is likely to win once again at least 15-25 seats in the NA and 45-55 seats in the provincial assemblies(Mainly Sindh). MQM's power is very less likely to diminish as a potent political actor influencing the financial brain of Pakistan,i-e, Karachi any time in near or distant future. MQM will retain their hold on power through their influence at Karachi which effects the whole national financial health. MQM is expected to retain their dedicated vote bank and try to expand their sphere of influence beyond Sindh province by taking a surprise seat or two elsewhere.

Awami National Party (ANP)  . ANP, is a Pushtun Nationalist party formed by Late Khan Abdul Wali Khan, currently led by his son Asfandyar Wali Khan hailing from the province of NWFP, which ANP renamed to Khyber Pakhtonkhwa or in short K Pk in their present term in power. ANP's founding fathers were opposed to the idea of partition of subcontinent at first. They joined PPP's founder Zulfiqar Bhutto in government for a short while in 1970. IN 1972, 1988 and 1990 ANP also came into power for short durations in coalition with bigger parties.

After the ineffective tenure of the religious alliance ruling the K Pk province from 2002 to 2008, and political differences leading to the break up of this  governing alliance called MMA ( religious political parties alliance), ANP got a chance to come back into power at their home province and become coalition partners at the central PPP led government.

ANP secured an overall 2% dedicated votes at national level and won 13 seats in the national assembly while gaining 2 seats in Sindh, 48 at K Pk and 4 at Baluchistan. ANP formed the coalition government at K Pk with the support of PPP and also joined the PPP led coalition at the center. ANP's performance at center remained as controversial as that of their coalition leaders at Islamabad. At provincial level, ANP displayed an above average performance in the face of massive reign of terror unleashed by the Islamic Fundamentalist Jihadi outfits against their secular/moderate agenda. ANP fought the war on terror enforced upon Pakistan with their province in the north west as the front line with bravery and dedication. ANP lost their prominent senior leaders and their family members in this war they were forced to fight. The sad saga continues to date with the Pakistani Talibans targeting the ANP leaders now out in the open running their election campaigns. The resolve of ANP to fight this naked aggression and the sacrifices of their leaders is continuously gaining them the "sympathy vote bank" in particular at their home province.

ANP is expected to come out stronger than before as result of upcoming GE-2013 owing to the moral and physical courage their leaders are displaying in the face of Talibans and associated terrorists. Their election campaigns will get bloodier with every passing week, but they are expected to remain steadfast. This quality alone will fetch them enough votes to regain the Provincial government at least. At the center, they are expected to perform better than before and win 15 seats or more. They are expected to also come out strong in Sindh's capital Karachi with their bid to secure few more provincial assembly seats than the 4 won last time in the presence of large ethnic Pashtun population settled there . Overall, ANP irrespective of being a part of much controversial PPP government is likely to perform better and become yet again a major player in national politics.

Jammiat E Ulema E Islam (F) JUI(F) . JUI(F), or the alliance of religious scholars of Islam- led by Maulana Fazl(F) Ur Rehman, who is more a charismatic and colourful politician than anything else. JUI(F) is a potent Islamic party en cashing the vote bank on the name of Islam and possesses a strong dedicated follow ship. JUI(F) is embedded at south western K Pk and few parts of Baluchistan. In the absence of Jammat E Islami which boycotted the 2008 polls under Musharraf rule along with Imran Khan's PTI and others, JUI was able to secure an overall 2.2% votes at national level winning 7 seats at NA, 2 in Punjab, 14 and 10 at K Pk and Baluchistan respectively. JUI(F) under Mualana Fazal is a master of political maneuvering and plays it's cards well to maintain power and status at almost all times. May it be a military dictatorship or democracy, Maulana Fazal Ur Rehman's party's stars shine on the horizon as he knows the trick to maintain a liberal profile while keeping close association with Islamic hardliners, which even include certain militant organizations.

JUI(F)'s performance recently remained at par to their reputation while they extracted maximum benefits for themselves and their supporters keeping their alliance with the fundamentalist groups alive. They are expected to win 3-5 seats at national assembly utilizing their dedicated voters in the name of Islam. It would be a major achievement for them to secure more seats than last GE in the presence of now other major Islamic parties like Jammat E Islami. Imran Khan's PTI is also expected to give JUI(F) at tough competition at their home ground where Imran is gaining popularity. What so ever the case may be, Maulana Fazal Ur Rehman is likely to play his cards right again even with lower seats to bargain with.

Pakistan Muslim League(Functional) PML(F), PML(F) led by the Pir of Pagara Sharif is hot bedded in the province of Sindh. The Pir of Pagara is the chair holder with hundereds of thousands of dedicated sworn followers called the "Hurs". The "Hurs" can even lay their lives on the orders of their Pir( Religious Leader). Voting as per the Pir Sahib's aspiration is a matter of religious duty for them. Beside this dedicated followship, the Pir Pagara enjoys the political clout of a kingmaker in the Pakistani politics. All major parties and their leaders seek political guidance from the Pir Pagara.

The recent change of Pir of Pagara after the demise of last Pir brought to chair an aggressive and expressive Pir of Pagara who is all willing to increase the practical influence of his political outfit PML(F) as a major contender in the politics of Sindh province challenging PPP and MQM at their own turf.

PML(F) in GE 2008 won 5 seats in NA, 3 at Punjab and 8 at Sindh. The party remained mostly in the opposition while acting in exact accordance with the Pir Sahib of Pagara's desires. This time round the PML(F) is leading a major alliance challenging the dominance of PPP and MQM at Sindh. PML(F) is likely to face acute hurdles in maintaining their alliance of parties from different backgrounds and creeds. However, PML(F) is expected to emerge as a major player in the Sindh provincial politics viz a viz national political power circuit in alliance with if not all it's current partners, than few main parties. If the grand alliance of PML(N) and PML(F) somehow materialize, and with the inclusion of some smaller political groups and independent politicians, PML(F) is capable to give a shock to PPP in Sindh. It will be highly interesting to study the ongoing developments and the public response in this regard at Sindh. With the unflinching loyalties of "Hurs" and disgruntled PPP supporters, PML(F) is a strong contender for power at Sindh province making them a major player at national level as well.

Jammat E Islami, JI, founded in 1941 by Maulana Maududi is a strong theological party of the sub continent,  in particular, Bangladesh and Pakistan. JI propagates sociopolitical Islam as a way of governance. Jammat came into power with coalition government at the center only once in 1958 and at provincial religious parties alliance at K Pk province in 2002. Jammat enjoys dedicated follow ship in complete country, though small in number but staunch in their loyalties to the Jammat. JI's ideology is closer to the tough stance of Imran Khan's PTI over the US presence in Afghanistan, drone attacks and the War on Terror. This might lead JI to join ranks with PTI in latter stages of the democratic process. JI is likely to enter back in mainstream Pakistani politics by winning few seats in both national and provincial assemblies.

Pakistan Tehreek E Insaaf, PTI , Lead by the charismatic personality of Imran Khan, supported by the youth of Pakistan forming 48% of the population, participating for the first time ever in Pakistani electoral process with a clean slate, can safely be termed as the favourites of GE 2013. The appeal of Imran Khan's personality, the option to see someone new in power and the desire for change by Pakistanis led PTI to emerge as a major contender in GE 2013. Various political heavyweights with conscious and clean reputes joined PTI, making it's all the more credible political force with a future in power politics.

It is interesting to note that the mass support for Imran Khan's PTI is certain to bring huge vote bank in their favour all over the country. However, when it comes to elective politics down to the constituencies level, PML(N) is more likely to win the seats possessing dedicated vote bank there. The business community across Pakistan, specially those holding small and medium level enterprises are also expected to side with PML(N) instead of PTI keeping PML(N)'s  past experience and positive performance in government.

PTI is expected to emerge as a major player in the power politics with sizable number of seats at national level and seats in respectable ratio at provincial level. PTI might form an electoral alliance with JI to form the opposition but their chances to make central government irrespective of massive support and public sentiments are least likely owing to following reasons:-
> Lack of experience in electoral process
> Too much dependence on the personality of Imran Khan
> Lack of political flexibility
> Immaturity amongst political players

PTI if remain steadfast will however emerge as a major political force to reckon with and seize power through massive mandate in the next GE. Anything else with regards to GE 2013 will be simply out of the blue..........................But PTI is surely the underdogs this time round. All it takes is a knock out punch for the underdog to defeat the heavyweight, if it has to go that way...............A revolution of youth by voting massively in favour of Imran Khan and PTI would be that knock out punch, having the capacity to turn tables and change fortunes in GE-2013.........The uncertainty, hope and hype makes it all the more exciting a competition, with two parties to watch out for,i-e, PML(N) and PTI coming MAY 11th, 2013. 


The support and allegiance of independent legislative members who accounted for 18 in NA, 4 in Punjab and 11 and 12 at K Pk and Baluchistan respectively at GE 2008 is critical for any major party emerging with maximum number of seats after the GE. This time around the numbers are expected to remain the same plus minus one or two. The political bargain to win their support as always will matter very much in making the national level and provincial government of Baluchistan.

So fasten your seat belts and remain ready for a bumpy yet exciting ride, we call the GE-2013.