India-Pakistan Peace. A Dream With Benefits-Or Wishful Thinking In Reality

The other day I got an opportunity to attend a seminar at the School of Politics and International Relations,Quaid E Azam University (QAU), Islamabad. QAU is Pakistan's officially declared top most institution, a distinction it rightly deserves. The topic was a controversial matter which only QAU could allow to be discussed for the sake of freedom of expression amongst an emotionally charged youthful audience. The Seminar was enthusiastically titled as "Aaghaz-e-Dosti", (An Initiative For Indo-Pak Friendship). Guest scholars invited to speak on the subject were Dr Pervaiz Hoodbhoy, an academician who is as controversial in literacy circles of Pakistan for his political beliefs as the topic itself. Other speakers included Mr Raza Rumi and Mr Hassan Raza, bloggers and media activists. All three speakers were unanimous in declaring few points they propagated with respective convictions. Firstly, The benefits with a peace accord with India are far reaching,  and highly beneficial for Pakistan regards her economic growth, prosperity and well being. Secondly, Pakistan's attitude in this regard is less flexible, rather unreasonably stern while the general tendencies in Pakistan are highly volatile being extremist when it comes to tolerance levels. Each speaker quoted a personal incident to justify the point. Thirdly, The way to the future is peace, with which almost all audience agreed. There was a very short, but emotional question answer session which followed. The esteemed guests either due to the paucity of time or because of their respective convictions failed to highlight or missed following important issues. First, what will happen of Pakistan's indigenous industry, agriculture and food security in case MFN status is granted to India, which is a prerequisite for any serious initiative for peace by the Indian government while this move for free trade was advocated strongly by Dr Pervaiz Hoodbhoy?. Second issue relates to Mr Raza Rumi while he spoke on the"Two Nation Theory", signifying it with a mere a political gimmick by Quaid E Azam Mr Muhammad Ali Jinnah to gain independence from the British Raj, only. He conveniently missed discussing the current status of the "Two Nation Theory" which in fact formed the basis of partition of India in 1947, when the blood spilled still howls in the corridors of history to date. The speakers also failed to present the clear demarcations for attaining a parity so necessary for bilateral agreements, rather propagated an impression that we the Pakistanis need to bend down while asking for peace from the big brother, India.

Under the unidirectional approach of all three scholars, the emotions were justified to have erupted while a Kashmiri student gave his piece of mind, rather arrogantly to Dr Pervaiz Hoodbhoy. The student had lost half of his property, to the Indian occupation forces at the Indian side of Kashmir along with, his complete family killed by the Indian Army, as he claimed. Dr Pervaiz Hoodbhoy was gracious in responding, while he pacified the situation, he was forced to acknowledge that the fault lines regards the issue were much deeper than the surface going both sides of the border, but a way forward needs to be found in order to avoid the human suffering like that at Europe in first and second world war's aftermath, till the Europeans decided to live alongside each other for the sake of progress and survival forming the European Union . The emotionally charged audience were indirectly disciplined for the sake of decorum by Dr Qandeel Abbass of QAU who was overseeing the proceedings.

The argument was closed by Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal of QAU as the host, who is himself an imminent International Relations expert of the highest credentials, in the most appropriate conclusion. He was of the view that the need for Peace with India is an utmost aspiration for Pakistan and possess highly reward able prospects for both the countries, however, the dialogue needs to be on the basis of parity and mutual respect where the ideological foundations of Pakistan needs never be compromised.

In an after seminar reception, I took up the initiative while being afforded an opportunity to have a one to one discussion with Dr Pervaiz Hoodbhoy. I posed him essentially two questions. Firstly I asked him about the fate of the "Two Nation Theory" which was conveniently termed a political gimmickry of Mr Jinah by Mr Raza Rumi?. Dr Hoodbhoy was tactful in answering, while asking to find a way forward under the economic considerations at Pakistan. My second question pertained to the existence of fault lines at India domestically in general? to which he affirmed but concluded that the Pakistani domestic fault lines at present are rather deeper and more volatile than the Indian side. Upon this Question, Dr Hoodbhoy rather quoted the former Pakistani Army Chief, General Ishfaq Pervaiz Kyani, when he declared the Paksitani Internal Security threat as the Defence Forces primary concern followed by India, now. That is a first time shift of strategy as seen by Dr Hoodbhoy in the security doctrine of Pakistan. Mr Raza Rumi, had earlier dismissed the Pakistani Security Establishment's claims as Mullah curacy's ill propaganda, that the Indian Intelligence agencies operating from their forward basis at Afghanistan are playing havoc within Pakistan through the Pakistani Talibans, who are in fact mercenaries for higher to the highest bidder in an era of proxy warfare and indirect conflicts generating the business for such mercenary groups.

The net result, as it seemed to this humble scribe was to promote the India-Pakistan peace process. However, either the short amount of time or the specific selection of speakers invited at the seminar, they failed to address the sour truths by over simplifying the underlying cause of the fiasco called India-Pakistan relations and conflict, as one expects from such a gathering of highly acclaimed professionals.                               

The Game Of Wits- US Measures To Counter Chinese Influence In Post 2014 Afghanistan

The modern US global empire operates on a number of elements of consultations and research processes upon which it rightly invests in huge magnitudes. The diaspora of US think tanks and advisory bodies consisting of experts from around the globe are the backbone of this system of consultancy and advisory process bringing out deep rooted problem areas and their far fetched solutions. The sheer size of this effort consisted upon public-private initiatives at the US and the appeal to global academician to live and work in a country affording them considerable freedom of thought and speech makes this system a success. This scenario in turn produces world class research and classic troubleshooting solutions for the US global empire benefitting the US while maintaining it's global hegemony. Same holds true for the American technology superiority and resultant successes.

The scenario in post US/ISAF Afghanistan warranted a serious US response to counter the Sino-Pakistani alliance with the latter reinvigorating their influence in the region. The Pakistani supported proxies at Afghanistan so far proved to be a valuable asset for them even while the former faced the wrath of the US global empire and as a result  directly targeted by the Indian proxies causing thousands of casualties in Pakistan. But as per the clandestine policy directors at work in the nuclear armed Islamic Republic, it was a price worth paying for. This scenario brought Pakistanis hence their closest allies in the region, the Chinese in a position where they hold almost all the aces in post US boots on ground era at Afghanistan. United states' Indians protégé are least likely to hold the fort intact with the geographical obstacle between India and Afghanistan, that is Pakistan itself.

Aforementioned  situation required trouble shooting of the most creative nature by the US global empire managers at the Af-Pak and central Asian theatre. They turn to their brain power rightly called  the think tanks at America presenting the problem as it stood. The masters who are rightly the foundation of the American global supremacy comes up with a solution which is not only out of the box, but also brings humongous political mileage for the US administration and other parties involved in the process. the solution calls for Iran to actively engage at Afghanistan in support of their natural allies there, the US allied Northern Alliance, practically in power at Kabul. This would counter not only the Sino-Pakistani influence at Afghanistan but also most importantly provide an alternative road sea corridor to the land locked country via the Chahbahar port of Iran. Strategically this move also provides a commercial alternative to the Chinese made and operated deep sea port at Gawader Pakistan but that's another subject though.

As brilliant as the idea was, it was a tough nut to crack when it comes to selling the same to the Iran. The US\NATO troops operating at Afghanistan also are beneficiaries of any such arrangement with their logistic supplies flowing on the said trade routes. The Indians had already made a road link between Afghanistan and Iran anticipating this move well ahead under the directives of their US allies while they traditionally enjoy more than cordial relations with Iran. Still, to sell the idea was never possible under the Ahmadinejad administration. Comes the change of government and the desire of newly elected Iranian leadership to come back into global main stream. Time to strike, the US very cleverly offers Tehran a compromise on the nuclear agenda while leaking the information conveniently to the Saudis. The kingdom with their middle eastern hegemony in danger goes on all out offensive against any such compromise with Iran only in return getting a polite snub from the Americans. In the meantime US and the west compromises and halts the Saudi desired offensive at Syria under Putin's solid posture in support of Bashar Al Assad regime that is deeply allied with Iran. The Saudis in a limbo, reportedly approaches Moscow with an offer they think the Russians won't be able to refuse. A multi billion arms deal, Increased level of influence at Middle East and the security of the 2014bWinter Olympics at Russia from the Chechen rebels and Al-Qaeda in return for a regime change at Syria.....................................................  

The Russians are amused and perturbed at the last offer and rightly so as Saudis very unwittingly acknowledged their direct support/contacts with the insurgents within Russia . In order to teach Saudis a lesson in international power politics, they decide to leak the info in convenience or maybe as a great stroke of luck for/with the US to the Iranians. The situation puts Tehran's leadership to test, they are now but forced to agree with the US offer conveyed through the Indians to sign a deal providing the passage from the Chahbahar port to Kabul. What a game plan and awesome execution is all I can comment. kudos to the US think tanks for coming out with a plan as great as this and shame on Saudis for falling out of wisdom and grace for their lust of power, which is always so easily manipulated...........................................        

      

The Cat Is Out Of The Bag_US Facilitation To Appoint New Taliban Leader At Pakistan-Impact On The Riegon

The drone strike taking down Hakim Ullah Mehsud, Leader of the banned terrorist organization Tehrik E Taliban Pakistan (TTP), by a US predator killed two birds with an arrow for them. firstly they successfully halted the peace process the Pakistani Politicians were embarking upon with the Talibans while creating a rift between the  Paksitani Taliban's terror victims including a huge chunk of the Military and those wise enough to realize that a political settlement is the only viable solution to the internal conflict of the country as proven by history of such conflicts around the globe. Secondly, with US puppet regime at Kabul's backed Maulana Fazullah taking over the TTP has killed any chance of a durable peace accord keeping in view the fanatic track record of this terrorist leader and proven enmity with the Army. Maulana Fazullah most recently humiliated the Pakistan Army by killing their General Officer Commanding at Swat, the former's stronghold from where he was forcefully expelled after suffering huge losses by the hands of the Pakistani Army.

A day before the Pakistani Federal government delegation was to meet the slain Taliban leader amidst controversies and contradictions on the proposed talks, Hakim Ullah Mehsud, the focal leader representing the Taliban extremists was targeted successfully by the US drone strike. This attack at one side disrupted the talks for the peace between the Pakistani state and extremist group TTP and on the other hand saw hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis cheering the US strike that killed a man responsible for spilling the blood of their numerous countrymen. Again the contradiction particular to the Pakistani society was witnessed during which Maulana Fazullah was made the new TTP chief by the extremist terror organization.

After the two years reign of terror in the scenic valley of Sawat, Maulana Fazullah was thrown out to the neighboring Afghanistan by the Pakistan Army offensive against the Talibans, killing and capturing hundreds of them in the process. Fazullah swore revenge and attacked the Pakistani forces on the latter's home ground from across the border. This process as claimed by credible Pakistani military and intelligence sources who talked to this scribe was facilitated by the Afghan intelligence with finances and logistics provided by the Indian intelligence agencies operating openly across the Pakistani western borders, inside Afghanistan in the garb of Indian "cultural centers" at Afghanistan. Now the US ignorance of the same is not comprehendible under any logical reasoning, knowing their role and influence in Afghanistan. The rationale for the US action or lack of same  can be attributed to their strongest desire to see India as their regional protégé in post US/NATO withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan creating a counterweight to the Sino-Pak alliance.

The move of Fazullah becoming the TTP chief will only help create destabilization in Pakistan, which  pragmatically speaking is a quid pro quo, when it comes to the Pakistanis supporting the Afghan Talibans and facilitating their operations at Afghanistan through the Pakistani mainland. However, in this bloody game of violent clandestine/covert proxy war between regional and global powers, the blood of the innocent will spill on for the time being while Pakistan Inc will hold the upper edge with the Chinese at their back and Afghan Talibans in their pockets. This assumption is also augmented by the fact that Pakistani resilience is still intact after record terrorist attacks on it's soil killing thousands of them in the process but maintaining their limitless "punishment taking ability" . The Indo-US alliance lacks the potential to sustain the backlash in post US/NATO boots on ground era where Indians will stay put or as expected out of them. Under the scenario, Indian's will have to support their Afghan hosts who mainly consists of the Karzai puppet regime and northern alliance whose forces, though defiant are still unable to contain the Afghan Taliban's assault. In short, after the departure of US forces from Afghan soil, the Indians are expected by the former to hold fort. Frankly speaking, this is least to say but a highly idealistic  plan which is in vast contradiction with the ground realities in the so called AfPak region.

The US on the verge of their exit from Afghanistan realizes these ground facts but is forced to follow their Indian support policy in creating a so far non existent counterweight to the growing Chinese influence in the region being the latter's immediate suburbs. The game the US is playing is based on the cards of bluff which is diabolical in essence. Calling the bluff is only a matter of time. The energy rich region which is target of this proxy war is practically the backyard of China and it's strongest current ally Russia. With the valuable ground resources being offered to the Chinese by their time trusted Pakistani allies it is again a matter of time before the Chinese will call the US bluff to end their regional hegemony, hence curtailing the Indians back to their wholes. Since it's a matter of time and showing resilience in the face of aggression like sponsored terrorism, both China and Pakistan have proven to stand steadfast so far. The bluff will be called and the sand castles will have to fall, US and their protégé must keep that in mind..................................................

                             

"Aman ki Aasha", Indo-Pak Peace Initiative, A Facade For Profit Or Else.

In the modern and civilized world it is a well established fact that dialogue is the only constructive way forward to age old enmities between nation states. War and violence is also an element of statecraft it is  agreed but in our times the same is used as low intensity conflict well conceived under clandestine activities to achieve goals a Nation State cannot pursue out in the open. The world we are living in our times is divided essentially, not on geographic or ethnic basis for those who are at the helm of affairs, but for them, it is a question of economic priorities more associated to themselves and less to their native populations. This phenomenon is in placed around the globe through the international corporate empires, all in business for only profits obviously. In this game of profiteering, at the face of it many initiatives by the global corporate houses are taken to solve various ethnic, political and at times religious issues between nation states. But, the results of such initiatives and efforts both mostly remain limited to creating favourable business environments for sponsoring corporate houses. It's a global alliance of corporate cooperation for profit, and profit alone where money is the only objective and making it is the religion practiced for which the ethics and methods can be modified, while emotions and political issues can be tailored, at times exploited.

"Aman Ki Asha" is one such project launched by the corporate media giants of the Indo-Pak sub-continent, essentially spearheaded by the "Jang/Geo group of Pakistan" and the "Times of India". This collaboration of both affluent corporate houses of the Sub-continent is in progress for more than two years now. The initiative focuses on people to people contact, media events and highly publicized PR events. However, the flashy media campaigns and loud events have failed to impact the Indo-Pak bilateral relations in any substantial manner. In fact the border tensions between both countries have seen a sharp rise with fatal consequences for both sides involving military and civilian casualties in current years.  The border skirmishes forced hundreds of thousand of villagers on both side of the border to migrate in a manner not seen for over 20 years. [1] These armed skirmishes all along the "line of control" at Kashmir and working boundary of Sialkot are being described as the "worst bout of fighting in nearly ten years"    

On the other hand, as result of this so called initiative called "Aman ki Asha", both the media groups spearheading the project have earned billions in revenues from importing/exporting Indian films to Pakistani box office under a relaxed media policy by Pakistani Government under pressure from the Jang/Geo media group. For this specific purpose, Geo films reportedly[2] not only fabricated false documentations to facilitate this business but also deprived Pakistani state millions of tax revenue by using the illegal money channels to route/launder  the money. Both the Corporate houses on opposite sides of the border are making immense profits by media collaboration of their respective businesses while "Aman ki Asha" is the dagger being drawn to threaten anyone trying to expose this flimflam of show business profiteering on both sides of borders.

The obvious beneficiaries of this initiative called "Aman ki Asha" or "Aman ki Hina" as renamed by the Times of India in India for increased traffic while Indian men are seemingly more interested in Hina Rabbani Khar than Aman or Asha, are the corporate media giants of the subcontinent responsible for the project. As for the Indians and Pakistanis out in the fields at the Indo Pak borders, it's chaos and misery hitting them hard and fast...................    


[1]. http://www.google.com.pk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDMQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2F2013_India%25E2%2580%2593Pakistan_border_skirmishes&ei=tAJuUpG2AfGR0QXroYHACQ&usg=AFQjCNHPqvc1F0cXWFmgQs6r9wHm9cTXvQ&sig2=WF_lljVztTbToaJ67XgUFg&bvm=bv.55123115,d.d2k&cad=rja

[2].  http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x16gr00_kharra-sach-26th-october-2013_news#from=embediframe                    

CHAOS AT KARACHI_ POLITICAL TURF WARS.

                                    "THE CAT IS AWAY, SO THE RATS CAN PLAY"

"The Cat is away, so the rats can play" and they are, that's what is actually happening at Karachi. All the major political players namely the governing party along with their allies i-e, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Pakhtun nationalist, Awami National Party (ANP) and the previous allies turned opposition Muthadda Qaumi Movement (MQM) are at proxy war with each other. They are the cats with the rats being petty criminals, street gangs and Taliban terrorists benefiting from this situation. They are all out murdering, extorting and looting all they can in the city. The law and order situation is nothing new for the mega metropolis of Pakistan like any other such mega city around the globe, but this time round all the cats are in conflict over their share of milk with the rats free to litter while the former are busy clawing each other.

To understand this chaos one needs to study the ethnic political divide of Karachi historically and the modern influx of domestic migration from restive areas of the country for economic reasons and else. Karachi being the mega port city of Pakistan is the commercial hub of not only Pakistan, but that for the region as well. Upon partition the Indian Muslim migrated in mass to Karachi and made it their new home bringing their experience in commerce with them. These migrants called "Urdu Speaking" Pakistanis now are the backbone of Karachi's modern economy and call the city their home. In the 80s their lower middle class encouraged by General Zia ul Haq formed their own political platform called "Muhajir Qaumi Movement" lead by Iltaf Hussain. The party rose to success in the backdrop of political persecution and violence faced by this community at the hands of the local Sindhis and Pakhtun/Punjabi settlers. After three decades the "Mujahir replaced by "Mutahada", MQM still lead by self exiled Iltaf Hussain is a major political force at Karachi to reckon with almost all the various segments of Urdu Speaking community in it's fold now. Other major players are the home province party the PPP currently in power along with the ANP which represents the Pakhtun settlers at Karachi from the province of Khyber Pakhtonkhwa.

In the aftermath of US lead invasion of Afghanistan, Karachi also became the hotbed for Pakistani Talibans and Al-Qaeeda. These terror outfits generate revenue through kidnap for ransom and extortion and also use the financial network of Karachi to launder their black money. All the political parties also posses their respective militant wings with the MQM leading with regards to the organization and extortion systems matured over decades. The turf wars over Karachi by the militant wings are the cause of biggest law and order challenge to the city. while the politicians are busy fighting their proxy wars , the common criminals, street gangs and above all Taliban terrorists are all free to rampage the city, as is happening right now.

The MQM most recently demanded to hand over the city to the Army for maintaining law and order. This clearly gives the impression that the MQM militant and political network is taking the most severe beating in the current battle on the streets among the political thugs of Karachi. How we reach this deduction is through a study of not so distant past, when in 1995, PPP central government led by the slain Benazir Bhutto targeted the lawlessness at Karachi, essentially targeting the MQM through a military action and broke their back by killing most of their militant wing or forcing the rest to flee the city. The operation was most effective in it's nature to cleanse the city and establish peace. MQM has ever since opposed any proposal of military action in the city. After the last Elections in post General Musharraf era of Pakistan the canny widower of Benazir, Asif Zardari formed an unnatural alliance at Sindh government between PPP and MQM to share the loot at the mega city while the latter became coalition partners in a fragile central government lead by former. MQM, thus succeeded in clinging on the power corridors of Karachi for almost two decades in the run while they were political partners of military dictator Musharraf as well. This time round, as a result of Elections-2013, PPP again came into power at Sindh province loosing the center to yet another unnatural and underhand partner Mr Nawaz Sharif and party who have a clear majority to hold power in the center. Now MQM was offered to come on board the provincial government, keeping in view their political influence in the city by PPP, but on the latter's terms and condition this time round. The MQM refused to oblige and choose not to become coalition partners at the provincial government of Sindh with an impotent state in which they can not continue their business as usual. The result was breaking out of proxy wars between the militant wings of both the parties in which the Pakhtuns sided with their political partners, the PPP. So far MQM's most hardened militants have been shot dead in a violent street war of "target killing" at Karachi with PPP having the upper edge being in government and controlling the Law Enforcement Agencies of the city. As the war goes on, MQM bleed profusely and as a last resort demands the military to intervene.

However, the military will only moves under the order of Central government, on the request of the provincial government. The provincial government being lead by PPP and the center by Nawaz league in this case is least likely to take any action. Nawaz League have no "love lost" with the MQM both traditionally and historically. So unless the MQM budge to PPP's demands and decide to give way and loose some of their profitable turf at Karachi from which they were extorting prime bucks, the city will not see any peace. MQM knows this, but also foresee such a retreat as loosing valuable influence over the business community who contribute the major share in their party fund as protection money. For the time being the target killings will go on and the petty criminals and terrorists will continue to have a field day. I only hope and pray that this anarchy does not last longer than it should as its not only the rats who are at play but the anti Pakistani state vultures are also looking to strike as they always do in such like opportunities. In the meantime, the city of lights, bleeds on................................

                                                      

IMPACT OF IP GAS PIPELINE AND LATEST DEVELOPMENTS AT GAWADER ON THE FOREIGN POLICY OF PAKISTAN

 CASE STUDY -IMPACT OF IP GAS PIPELINE AND HANDING OVER OF GAWADER   DEEP SEAPORT TO CHINA ON PAKISTANI FOREIGN POLICY
                                     
                                                   (By  ADIL FAROOQ RAJA)


BACKGROUND

The Pakistani Government's move spearheaded by President Asif Ali Zardari few months ago of handing over the Gawader deep seaport to China and singing the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline deal is by far the boldest initiative by the  Pakistan People's Party leadership having deep rooted impact on the foreign policy of the country. The decision is both strategic and controversial in essence. The well known opposition of the world’s sole superpower towards any business deals with Iran due to their historic anti American sentiments after the Islamic Revolution led by Imam Khomeini and the ongoing drive to achieve nuclear power is an established fact. Any opportunity providing Iran with a breath of fresh air in the shape of monetary/economic benefit is surely to anger the USA.
 Pakistan is facing its independent history’s worst power crisis since 2009 severely affecting the economy adversely and livelihood of citizens at large. Pakistan has the installed power generation capacity of 19,505 Mega watts (MW) against a peak demand of 19,000 MW at present as per the Ministry of Water and Power of Pakistan. However, 12,580 MW i-e, 65%, of this installed power generation capability is based upon fossil fuels. The rising prices of oil at international level viz a viz “circular debt of Pakistan” have handicapped the power generation sector of the country to produce at their optimum capacity. The circular debt is mainly on the books of the energy sector of Pakistan. As per the Planning Commission report on the “circular debt”, it stands at staggering Rs 872 billion at the end of last fiscal year. As per the said report, poor governance, delays in terrif determination, fuel price methodology, poor revenue collection and delayed/incomplete payments by the Finance Ministry are the chief causes of piling up “circular debt” which has crippled the power generation sector of Pakistan. To survive this immense energy deficit Pakistan either has to generate this Rs 872 billion amount or find fossil fuel source at the earliest to feed its power generation machinery. The Nawaz Sharif government according top priority to the issue paid a handsome Rs 300 Billion to the power companies but it didn't help to ease the power cuts much.  The natural gas planned to be imported through the IP gas pipeline is seen as the quickest and most handy solution for Pakistani fossil fuel requirements for power generation. Under the US and Suadi pressure for the time being the Nawaz government is not practically pursuing the project, however they realize that it is the only long term solution to the power woes of Pakistan with negligible carbon emissions, unlike other planned projects. Nawaz Sharif will have to tackle the US and Suadi pressure which he is historically capable of handling considering the decision to go nuclear openly in 1998 under intense domestic pressure.    
While Pakistan Energy Watch [1] blames the government for not allowing the exploration of natural gas block at Sui for last 16 years, the IP gas pipeline can greatly benefit the Pakistani energy sector directly influencing the economy positively, in a short duration. [2]The gas that the country will be importing from Iran would allow the generation of additional 4,123 MW of electricity at cheaper rate. It will also restore the 2,232 MW of idle thermal power generation capacity with the diversion of about of about 406 mmcfd, leaving 344 mmcfd for other usage such as manufacturing fertilizers and supplying gas to domestic consumers. While Pakistan would pay Iran USD 3 billion an year, it would reduce its oil imports by USD 5.3 billion, resulting in net annual reduction in energy imports by USD 2.3 billion. The figures are too good to ignore and opt for the costly and time consuming conversion of gas fired power plants into eco non friendly coal power option under consideration by the new government at Islamabad under influence of Suadi-US pawns.
The benediction of IP gas pipeline project for Pakistani economy is of the highest value it seems, but the USA is keeping no secrets of her full scale diplomatic offensive to sabotage the project creating a serious dilemma for the Pakistani Foreign Policy managers.         
 Handing of Gwadar deep sea port to China and is yet another soar swill for the USA to handle. Gawadar, located at southwestern coast of Pakistan has the potential to strategically impact Straits of Hormuz, through which more than 13 million barrels of oil passes from the Middle East to rest of the world. [3]With the financial assistance of China, the port was programmed to develop in four phases. Phase-I of the port has already been completed in 2006 with the initial investment of USD 248 million that included three births and one ramp 600-meter long capable of accommodating several ships at a time. Phase-II (2007-present) with USD 932 million is still underway, that will have 4 container berths, 1 bulk cargo terminal (capacity: 100,000 DWT ships), 1 Grain Terminal, 1 Ro-Ro Terminal, 2 Oil Terminals (capacity: 200,000 DWT ships each) and approach channel. Phase-III and IV consists of network of roads finally to be connected with China through the Indus Highway. Under an agreement, Pakistan, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are already committed to developing extensive railroad links from Central Asia and the Chinese province of Sinkiang to the Arabian Sea Coast. Mr Nawaz Sharif is all too eager to go ahead and complete the said route. The geographical and strategic location makes the Gwadar Deep Seaport at a much advantageous position than other competing ports, like Rashid and Jebel Ali ports of Dubai, Salalah Port of Oman, Bandar Abbas and Chahbahar ports of Iran.   
This development at Pakistan in the shape of Gawadar deep seaport as and when fully materializes has the potential of bringing Pakistan at the global economic forefront as the most viable gateway to landlocked Central Asia. The trade can be two ways as the Central Asian Republics are loaded with fossil fuels yet to be fully exploited and exported. In any such scenario, there will be no better option than Pakistani ports to commute this “black gold” of energy to the vast world. This alone puts the Pakistani economic future forecasts to be shining bright and high. Energy hungry Chinese economy can do away with the precarious South China Sea route for their major energy imports in particular from Middle East and use the Pakistani route from Gawadar instead. Such a scenario will make Pakistan’s importance to China of strategic nature enforcing the Chinese to help promote stability and peace in the country in particular and the whole region in general.
 However, the Chinese presence at Gawadar provides them not only vital influence over the strategic Strait of Hormuz but also a forward listening post to monitor the US/Western military activities in the Middle East. It also affords them a forward base to intervene any undesired maneuver militarily within no time.  This and the Chinese government offer to provide the much needed finances for IP gas pipeline project of USD 500 million has made the Americans to lose their sleeps at nights. The US is hence, an all out diplomatic offensive which will deploy their clandestine services as well to put hurdles in the way of the above mentioned developments at Pakistan.
This position presents foreign policy challenges for Pakistan with a magnitude rarely encountered by them before. This paper studies, how the presented situation impacts the Pakistani foreign policy? And what measures would be/needs to be taken by Pakistani foreign policy managers in order to deal with the said issues? which are at hand and will emerge as the US/Western bloc’s drive to isolate Pakistan gain momentum as a reprimand to her daring foreign policy initiative………………….

ANALOGY OF BOTH PROJECTS AND COMBINED IMPORTANCE/BENEDICTION FOR THE STAKE HOLDERS  

There are geographical, political and financial analogies in these projects for all three states involved i-e, China, Iran and Pakistan. The Chinese government’s decision to finance the cash starved IP gas pipeline project by pledging USD 500 million initially only confirms this hypothesis.

 [2]The import of gas from Iran has a strategic importance for the region. Once the super power bluff has been called, India facing energy crunch may change its mind and rejoin what was originally scheduled to be Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline. This would create further incentives for Pakistan and India to resolve mutual conflicts. It would thus become a peace pipeline. Pakistan could even become a conduit for bridging the gulf energy to China, gaining significant economic benefits from the deal.

The above assertion only partly correlates with the ground realities. Chances of the Indians joining aboard or being allowed to do so are a far off call, but can be sold as a foreign policy gimmick to the world by the Pakistanis. The Indians fell for the Indo_US civil nuclear energy deal which has strictly handicapped them to benefit from the Iranian gas resources anytime in immediate future at least.  The Chinese interest is directed more towards obtaining access to the huge Iranian oil reserves through Pakistan, critical for her energy hungry economy.

Sanctions plagued Iranian economy desperately requires a fresh economic breather by selling their most valuable produce, the petroleum products. International partners are hard to find with the exception of those who dare risk the wrath of USA and her western cronies. Pakistan and China can become a trusted business partners in this scenario who are willing to go ahead with the project and actively supporting it. Though the Gawadar deep seaport project adversely affects the value of Iran’s Bandar Abbas and Chahbahar ports, however, its potential to act as an international conduit for Iranian energy exports and the impact on USA whose influence in the region would be curtailed by the Chinese presence at Gawadar makes the Iranian accept the project.

Pakistan’s energy deficit power sector most immediately requires the life support it will get in the shape of the Iranian gas. The Gawadar deep seaport project will not only bring prosperity and economic growth to the country but also has the potential to help promote stability and peace in its troubled province of Baluchistan. The resultant trade and foreign direct investment in the aftermath of Gawadar project’s completion and operation will greatly benefit Pakistan as a whole. The Chinese military presence at Gawadar in the pretext of protecting their assets has been sanctioned by Pakistan. This move smartly corners India, which with all its military might and newly found love affair with the USA has, so far been unable to do anything but anxiously observe the developments at Gawadar and IP gas pipeline project. India irrespective of her clandestine support for the militancy at Baluchistan in order to destabilize Pakistan and in particular Baluchistan has been unable to stop the proceedings there. The Indian opposition to the Gawadar project is obvious as it puts the Chinese right at their throats, ready to cut it in times of open hostilities. This suit the Pakistanis busy in the “war within” against militancy and fighting the hostile state’s sponsored mercenaries to keep the Indians at bay while they are engaged in 4^th generation low intensity conflict with Pakistan.

The strategic move of the Chinese takeover of Gawader deep Sea port of Pakistan is not a surprise for the Pakistanis but has stunned many around the globe. This move indicates the breaking of the protective shell China was under while focusing on internal growth. This move also indicates the fluxing of Chinese muscles at the regional geopolitics affecting the global balance of power. The move combined with the change of Chinese leadership indicates the paradigm shift in Chinese strategy and doctrine being rightly hyped around the globe as a game changer. The move have made many a stomach churned in India, UAE and to the greatest extent left a very bad taste in the mouth of the Americans. The PRC for the first time ever in her independent history is flexing its muscles beyond immediate borders with the Gawadar take over. For the Chinese it's both a matter of the critical energy corridor for their economy importing energy/oil from Middle East/ Iran through the Pakistani route and the strategic influence over the region. Highly interesting to note are the stakes for China in these projects which are not only economic but directly  questions Chinese credibility and repute as a global power directly linked to the success or failure of Gwadar/Pakistani  venture. Gawadar being located in the Pakistani province of Baluchistan, which also hosts the IP gas pipeline project, has direct bearing on the former.  The situation hence imposes upon the Chinese a level of commitment and efforts of highest degree. China has historically proven to be a dedicated ally of Pakistan against all odds. The Gawadar episode is yet another feather in the cap of Sino-Pak strategic alliance. This also helps explain the Chinese investments in the IP gas pipeline project as well.

This is obviously a scenario not restricted to USA’s so called non proliferation goals for the world stopping Iran to go nuclear but is an issue far more complex and deep rooted than it seems at the exterior. The US dominance as the sole superpower is what, that is at stake here. The US hence, will put up a match with all its diplomatic might to defeat the designs of China, Iran and Pakistan, stopping short of an open conflict, which the US cannot afford to get into with all three states combined spearheaded by China.          

BLOWBACK ON PAKISTAN - CRITICAL CHALLENGES FOR FOREIGN POLICY  

Following salient hurdles can prove to be serious issues for not only the on ground implementation of the projects but also become the litmus test for the Pakistani foreign policy managers:-  

Ø  Foremost are the US threats of imposing sanctions on Pakistan if the latter keeps on      pursuing the IP gas pipeline project.

Ø  The use of covert tactics to thwart both IP gas pipeline and Gawadar deep seaport project by the hostile elements. These elements most definitely include the foreign non-state actors deploying 4^th generation warfare at Pakistan by financially supporting mercenary outfits like the Baloch National Army(BNA), Anti Shia militant organizations and clandestine services of the hostile states. All efforts to sabotage these projects will be carried out by directly affected states as discussed earlier through all means possible, diplomatic or other.[4] The enemy in Baluchistan is neither the Baloch nor the Pakistan Army, but foreign hostile forces and their allies. The problem in Baluchistan is local sense of deprivation, alienation, grievances; cycle of violence, under development of a sparse demography spread over vast spaces and of course Geopolitics. Many Baloch claim to be fighting for their rights, a mini minority is either backed by foreign powers or seek their intervention.  There is already a diplomatic war underway on the behest of these foreign hostile forces against Balochistan with a direction to interrupt the Gawadar and now IP gas pipeline project. Brigadier Nadir Mir in his book “Gawadar on the Global Chessboard” goes on to explain the plot as : Sinister forces appeared at work to sever Pakistani and Iranian Baluchistan (called Seistan). This balkanization agenda is part of a larger Geopolitical design. An appropriate West Asian Strategy is being chiseled by hegemonic powers. Reportedly Nurudin Mengal from Pakistan and Naseer Balodi from Iran in a three day session recently briefed the EU Parliament. Both launched a tirade against Pakistan and Iran, plus pleaded for foreign intervention, (A La Libya, NATO style intervention?) Before that US Congress had introduced a bill to sever Baluchistan from Pakistan. Coming on its heels a UN mission on Baluchistan had even suggested disciplinary action against military officers for alleged excesses. These may be the contours of a foreign intervention case.

Ø  This scenario will create the described major litmus test for the Pakistani diplomats to walk a tightrope as it is likely to unfold into.

Ø  Successive Pakistani governments in post  Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto era have banked upon the House of Saud’s as their principal patrons with regards to both domestic and foreign policies issues. On the other hand the established Persian-Saudi rivalry over geopolitical influence and sectarian issues is an open secret. Close US ties with the Saudi rulers and the former’s conflict with Iran is also a known fact. Under the plot an all out effort must be expected by Saudi Arabia to disrupt the IP gas pipeline project. More than any other hurdle, keeping the deep influence of the Saudis in Pakistan and the Sunni Islamic world, arises yet another fragile foreign policy complication which must be handled with extreme care.  

Ø  Political will of Pakistani leadership will be tested under the intense pressure of powerful players who are affected by these projects in the West and Middle East. The political leaders will have to extend ownership to these decisions at all international forums for which foreign policy managers of Pakistan will have to prepare them beforehand.

Ø  The role of corporate media and its effects on the whole world as a global village cannot be over emphasized. Unfortunately, the control of this corporate media is in the hands of few powerful elite, who mostly belong to the US/Western bloc. Diplomatic war backed by the corporate media at global level to malign these projects will be a most likely predicament needs troubleshooting at the earliest. Such a propaganda is already on the air trying to pose Balochistan province of Pakistan hosting both, Gawadar and IP gas pipeline projects as unstable and portraying it as a “land of the oppressed”.[4]  A part of the so called liberal media (foreign funded) in Pakistan and liberal puppets living on foreign dole are already blaming the Pakistani State. These Trojan Horse tactics in the information age smack of shaping the battle field. They aim to demonize Army, ISI, divide the people of Pakistan, create political confusion, galvanize terrorists so that mayhem abounds leading to a paralysis of state. After defaming and psychologically isolating the Army, ISI; the stage would be set for a Unilateral Declaration of Independence by a few foreign sponsored Baloch. Foreign forces could then be employed in intervention of Baluchistan

Ø  Plans must be in hands by Pakistani diplomatic corps to comprehensively address this propaganda in coordination and cooperation with various segments of our own media/academicians and other resources.

Ø  Plans to answer and satisfy legitimate concerns of affected countries in the region/globe and pacify their opposition to these projects should also form part of readily available solutions to the presented challenges for our foreign policy.

ANALYSIS OF THE PRESENTED CHALLENGES/SUGGESTED RESPONSE  
It is a million dollar question and if we keep the inflation in view a billion dollar question as to, if? Keeping in view the proposed US/NATO pullout in 2014, the western bloc is in a position to impose any sanctions on Pakistan.  Pakistan provides the easiest way out for trillion dollars worth military hardware and related equipment of the US/NATO out of Afghanistan. The surety of Pakistani military establishment for the safe exit of the said hardware is also of vital importance for the US. Besides for any durable solution at Afghanistan post 2014, and the US/NATO maintaining a physical presence in the country, Pakistan’s support is critical. Threatening to pose sanctions of any kind on Pakistan by the USA therefore is far different a scenario than actually imposing them on ground. Annoying Pakistan at this critical juncture and apropos USA’s future designs for the region the chances of actual imposition of US/Western sanctions on Pakistan is therefore, a very remote possibility. It is and will remain only “tough talk” for foreseeable future. Pakistani diplomats will come under pressure at all international forums influenced by the US/EU; however, this can be handled by responding in typical red tape diplomatic manner with sugar coated niceties. The case of Pakistan is very strong on legitimate grounds of acute energy shortage hurting the economic and social stability of the nuclear armed country. The same presentation should suffice for our diplomatic corps making their case for the proposed projects.
The Chinese influx due to the Gawadar project should be defended in aid of Sino foreign policy managers. The huge investment of the PRC, their credibility as a regional power at stake and the economic benefits of the Gawadar originated routes leading to Chinese main land are argumentations enough to convince the Chinese to take the lead role in confronting any foreign intervention at international and regional forums against the projects understudy.  The Chinese International position with the veto power at the UN Security Council must be taken maximum benefit from in forming a favourable foreign policy response in opposition to the Gawadar and IP gas pipeline projects. The mere Chinese economic clout in the USA is enough to keep the latter at bay.

The clandestine hostile activities through the Saudi funded anti shia militant and political fanatics, Indian sponsored, US supported BLA and alike mercenaries is already underway. Their wrath of naked terror on the Pakistani shia community in particular and all of the country is unfolding drastically. It has hit the capital city of Balochistan hard and furiously resulting in hundreds of innocent deaths and heavy bloodshed. However, it has again failed like it’s precedence to break the Pakistanis will.
The "punishment taking ability" of Pakistani state in general and its public in particular and their response to the nefarious designs of the hostile actors is tremendous. The foreign hostile forces are clueless when it comes at calculating the breaking point of the Pakistanis as a nation. Irrespective of numerous efforts by the hostile elements abroad in association with the treacherous local soul sellers, there seems no way of finding that very nerve which can break the fiber of Pakistani unity at present. The measure to which Pakistan can sustain the hostile assault from within and outside is still not determined and seems endless.
This scenario ironically presents an opportunity far beyond any other for Pakistani foreign policy managers. The described strength of Pakistanis in the shape of the “punishment taking ability” displayed over a decade of extreme violence now should form the basis for a hardened stance in presenting warnings to the states supporting terror at Pakistan. Pakistani foreign policy managers need to take a tough stance in particular with our immediate hostile neighbor, India, to talk sense into them. The Saudis needs to be conveyed the true feelings of their Pakistani brethren when their funded organizations make Pakistan a battleground of sectarian violence. They also needs to be convinced methodologically to let Pakistan go ahead with the IP gas pipeline in the backdrop of critical energy crisis. All in all, a proactive approach is required by the Pakistani foreign policy tackling the discussed problem of fomented terror with a firm stance.

ANNOTATION
We need to revisit the conclusions emerging from the case studies of the “Pressler amendment” and resultant sanctions era and the cold war fallout in Pakistan in the shape of wrath of the bloody KGB/RAW wave of terror in Pakistan. That and the military support provided by Pakistanis to various Arab countries in particular Saudi Arabia to date are facts enough to conclude the following deductions:-

Ø  Pakistan can survive any sanctions that may be imposed upon it by the US/West. ( Which are however least likely to materialize this time around )

Ø  Pakistanis can sustain huge amount of punishment, still stick to their guns when it comes to goals of national importance/survival.

Ø  The Arabs in particular the Saudis need us as much as we need them.

  The stated deductions again are augmentations for a proactive foreign policy approach by Pakistan in order to defend the Gawadar and IP gas pipeline project.

          

The challenges and threats of both these projects with regards to the foreign policy of Pakistan are pivotal in transforming the very nature of our foreign policy. If successfully implemented, they have the potential of shifting the age old balance of power in the region and direction of the Pakistani foreign policy towards a more open, yet intricate "Look East Scenario", rather than the present traditional dominant pro US/Western influences.
 The positive impact of these projects on the Pakistani foreign policy can also be analyzed in the backdrop of the successful foreign policy dynamics of Pakistan ever since the Chinese independence in maintaining a healthy, evergreen and growing relationship with the People's Republic. Chinese support of Pakistani foreign policy on international forums and their inroads at Pakistan at every level speaks at length on the commitment of the People's Republic of China towards the Pakistani state. Pakistani foreign policy got direct and indirect support from China all along which needs to be employed in relation with the Gawader and IP gas pipeline projects and their impact on our current and future diplomacy. China's emergence on the global power scenario as a potent player in future makes it all the more befitting for the managers of Pakistani foreign policy to adjust accordingly. Further alignment of Pakistani foreign policy in concurrence with that of PRC will not only help securing support for the projects under discussion but will strengthen the bilateral relations towards further high.
On the other hand, Iran was the only state which practically supported Pakistan in the 1965 war irrespective of their well established diplomatic relations with India. That and if the project succeeds and Iran is subsequently able to implement the original idea of IPI( Iran- Pakistan- India) "peace pipeline" shelved under the US pressure, convincing India of visible and logical economic benefits to their country needs to be diplomatically marketed as well. Such a scenario can prove to be detrimental foreign policy highlight to be propagated at all diplomatic channels being a step promoting regional peace and stability in the most heavily nuclear armed, volatile neighborhood on the globe. The prospects of the occurrence of this scenario as such are very much a possibility in the diminishing US influence as the sole superpower of the world in times to come. This situation will fundamentally alter the foreign policy of Pakistan with regards to India for which we need to prepare well before. A scenario as such needs to be propagated for the sake of peace, stability and economic well being of our country and the region.

 The importance of both the subject projects for the prosperity of complete Pakistan and the province of Baluchistan is detrimental in value. How the Pakistani foreign policy is affected and adapts at projecting these projects will dictate the success or failure of these important ventures to a large extent.          










 REFRENCES

1. Pakistan Energy Watch, Energy Crisis of Pakistan: Growing Deficit (Pakistan Today, April 19,2013)

2. Mr Aziz-ud- Din Ahmad: Will Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline survive? ( Pakistan Today, March 15, 2013) 

3. Mr Khalid Khokar: Harnessing the potential of Gawadar deep seaport (Frontier Post, April 3,2013)

4. Brigadier Nadir Mir: “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”

  

   

Baluchistan Burning-An International Sadistic Game

It's DE' j voe at Quetta. This time around the victims of mindless terror are the innocent female students and the hospital patients. "It can't be Pakistanis or Muslims" is the unified thought process at Pakistan. Such mind boggling terror and senseless killings are the act of proxies operating for enemies of Pakistani State and it's integration. This is the verdict so unanimous at both Pakistani think tanks and the people on the footpaths and drawing rooms alike. The message by the enemies of Pakistani state who are States themselves is transparent, but Pakistani Government is diplomatically bound to openly take their names and lodge protest as such. They will not let Pakistan live in peace and prosper and allow peace to prevail at Baluchistan as that would bear following  consequences:-

> Pakistanis would be able to  establish Gawader as a second strategic deep sea port, which will provide the Chinese as a forward military base as well.

> China may secure a shorter energy route via land for middle eastern oil imports utilizing Gawader.

> 500-600 billion USD gold reserves denied to the western corporate giants will be utilized by Pakistan thyself.

> Pakistan may utilize the vast mineral resources of Baluchistan to attain financial independence.

Apart the popular belief the Pakistani Intelligence agencies and academicians deduce that there is a planned drive towards making Baluchistan a weak independent entity breaking it away from the Pakistani federation for reasons as following:-

> An independent and weak Baluchistan under western influence with India as their local hustler suits the designs of those states interested in establishing  forward clandestine outposts to check and possibly foment trouble at Iran viz a viz the latter's desires for nuclear power and regional powerhouse status.
> Thus an independent banana republic of Baluchistan allows the states not happy and out to punish Iran as discussed above and also Pakistan for going nuclear at the first place. Stupid chaps they were the Pakistanis to try and attain the nuclear status causing Israelis to loose their midnight sleep for reasons obvious to mostly themselves.
> A weak and independent Baluchistan suits best the western corporates eying to exploit the huge natural resources of the region like they successfully looted and plundered at the Iraq case scenario. Oh! I beg your pardon, they were out there developing the war torn country, I am sorry. While the economic hit men are busy facilitating the process, which is by the way just another business deal for their unholy bosses whose only God is money.............. 

> The banana republic of Baluchistan which they are desperately trying to create suits best the powers who want to check the rise of China. Need we say who these states are?

> The weak and chaotic, war torn conflict zone of Baluchistan would be a paradise for the all powerful narcotics and weapons smugglers of the "Golden Triangle". Mind you, they are the strongest lobby amongst all these jackals discussed above and ruthless in their methods gaining further dividends out of Chaos and feeble  Baluchistan government like that at Afghanistan.

> If allowed and with Gawader up and running, the financial fallout for some "brotherly Islamic Countries" like the UAE with the plastic towns and artificial economies of Dubai and Abu Dhabi will be drastic.............. . No wonder Dubai is the new favourite base for the western and Israeli intelligence to operate from as proved in the recent past.Does that ring any bells?????    

For a common Pakistani at the face of it, India seems to be the prime villain at Baluchistan. India's sponsoring groups like the Baluch Liberation Army (BLA) and other proxies who are typical mercenaries lacking any potent combat capability while carrying out terrorists activities at Pakistan is a well established fact. But few know that Indians are only the pawns in the game.  For the Bishops and Knights we might not look much further while analyzing a most recent happening at Switzerland:-

Britain and America shocked Pakistan and its allies at the 23rd regular session of the United Nations Human Rights Council’s general debate in Geneva on 7 June when the two countries clearly supported nationalist leader Mehran Marri, Baluchistan’s self proclaimed representative to the UN, who spoke against the recent elections and alleged that Pakistan was committing rights abuses in Baluchistan.

China and Cuba came to the rescue of Pakistani delegate but the US and UK delegates were shameless in their attempts to support the otherwise characterless and morally corrupt Mr Marri. These US/UK offensive seems desperate in the face of repeated failed attempts to achieve the desired aim of instigating unrest leading to turmoil and separation of Baluchistan. It is believed by the Pakistani Establishment over the years that there are certain elements within the US and UK governments brewing this trouble facilitated and at times directed by their Israeli counterparts. India being the local mack supporting their sacrilegious partners is operating on dangerous grounds testing the patience of Pakistanis every time BLA and other such proxies strike and vehementay spill innocent blood at Pakistan.

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Islamic Republic of Iran are no saint either with more onus of carnage at Pakistan in general and Baluchistan in particular lying on the earlier. Both the countries in their regional sectarian conflict have made Pakistan a battleground of choice. While both countries support respective affiliated sectarian militant outfits, they are indirectly helping the cause of the Jackals discussed above making them a part of the same pack as far as the Pakistanis are concerned.        

while Pakistani leadership needs to put a leash on Iran and KSA for their thirst of power leading to carnage at Pakistan, a situation definitely being exploited by the enemies of Pakistan, the western powers are still untouchable for the "time being". However, India is most likely to pay directly for not only it's own misadventures but those of her mates in bed.......................................... 

Pakistani Offensive Against Talibans- The Chess Board of Tirah

Tirah Valley is located at the Afghanistan Pakistan border. The valley consists of picturesque plains and majestic mountains which strategically borders three tribal agencies of Pakistan's FATA ( Federally Administered Tribal Region) besides Afghanistan. The significance of this particular Valley and hold over it's mountain is critical for any particular group in order to control the move of various kinds at Afghan Pakistan border. Tirah forms the nodal point for Orakzai, Khyber, Kurram Agencies and is linked to both Afghanistan and Pakistan via Kohat FR and Peshawer's land routes. Tirah is also the route linking Pakistan and Afghanistan with the infamous "Tora Bora" mountains where Osama Bin Laden reportedly was based for a long time. The smuggling corridor is valuable for any party having complete or partial control over these rugged terrain. The militant group controlling the valley have made fortunes in the past facilitating the smugglers, Al Qaeeda and Talibans. Tirah serves as an alternative route from south and north Waziristan via Afghanistan into Pakistani main land as well, in the presence of Pakistani Military controlling all entries and exits of SWA (South Waziristan Agency) and NWA (North Waziristan Agency) to and from Pakistani main land. SWA and NWA are the traditional home grounds of both Afghan and Pakistani Talibans along-with Al Qaeeda and various other international militant and terrorists organizations. A ground route out with logistics accompanied to launch any operation, hence is critical for all these militant outfits, specially for those out of favour with the Pakistani establishment and seeking undetected entry into Pakistan. This is where the Valley of Tirah comes into play. The fight for dominance at Tirah hence is raging since two decades between mainly two groups of the area. These are the Pakistani state aligned Ansar ul Islam (AI) and the Taliban affiliated Lashkar e Islam (LI) lead by Mangal Bagh. The strategic importance of the Tirah Valley is also hence increased, ten folds for the Pakistani military busy in it's "war within" against the Pakistani Talibans (TTP i-e, Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan). In the most recent ongoing offensive by the Pakistani military at Tirah to capture and hold ground lost by AI, more than two dozen fatal casualties were sustained to include three officers in last 40 days alone.

Tirah Valley with it's high plains of Maidan and the mountains surrounding them possess Cold War era sophisticated trench systems on tactical heights all around. Pakistani Talibans in their anti state drive backed Mangal Bagh's LI to take over these heights around 2009-10. This was the time Mangal Bagh, originally a Pakistani state stooge placed to control and contain the Talibans at the suburbs of Peshawar fell from ISI's graces when his militant network became a Frankenstein threatening no place else, but Peshawar it self from Bara area of Khyber, the Mangal Bagh stronghold at that time. Around 2007 Pakistani state took on Mangal Bagh in a bloody battle which forced the latter to retreat towards the Tirah valley. As a result Mangal Bagh forged an anti state alliance with the Pakistani Talibans who in turn supported him for an offensive at Tirah where AI was holding strong ground in post US/NATO invasion of Afghanistan. Talibans had high stakes at Tirah due to obvious reasons and were already wary of Pakistani state aligned AI. In three years those proceeded, the LI and TTP systematically assassinated the AI leadership, while creating divide among the rival sub groups on ethnic/tribal grounds. The LI and TTP successfully overtook the Maidan plains and mountains surrounding it along-with the stated tactical heights. ISI in a bid to maintain Pakistani state significance in the strategic area supported the AI through limited ground and aerial operations. However, these half cooked practices blew back in the shape of heavy losses to men and material at all levels. Emphasis was than laid on restricting the LI and TTP at Tirah heights, in which the Pakistani state partially achieved success. The price of these operations in flesh and material both was much higher than reported in the press/media.

In the most recent drive to regain control and hit TTP hard under their belly while, completely isolating them and than destroying it comprehensively, the Pakistani military leadership led by General Ashfaq Kayani came up with the master plan to check mate the TTP at the chess board of Tirah. Historically, whenever Pakistani military opens an all out offensive against the militants, they abandon posts and flee into Afghanistan, which is practically ungoverned foreign country, out of bound as such for the Pakistani State's war machinery. These militants than operate freely from their Afghan bases only latter to resurface at Pakistan as and when the offensive expires.
(Same holds true for US/ISAF offensive across the border where the Taliban choose to retreat into either SWA or NWA)
However, this time around there is a "twist" in the story for the Talibans upon whose tail, the Pakistani military boots are squeezing hard. The pressure is so very intense that even after two weeks of the killing of the TTP second in command Wali ur Rehamn in a US drone strike, the TTP is unable to reply even as a symbolic attack, but is restricted to media balderdash  alone. The supposed aces employed by Pakistani military are ISI controlled non state militant groups, engaging the TTP within Afghanistan. These groups are waging a war against the TTP who they consider to be sponsored by the anti Pakistani elements and states such as India of which substantial proofs are reportedly held with the ISI. The notorious Lashkar e Taiba (LeT) now called Jamat ud Dawah's  highly trained and motivated militants along-with the AI men thirsty for the blood of LI for vendetta are operating freely at Afghanistan being non state actors creating serious trouble for the Talibans. Within the Pakistani borders in particular at the Tirah valley the Pakistani military is busy in all out offensive which is likely to throw the TTP and LI into Afghan territory where the militants of LeT and AI are already positioned to take them head on. For the first time in the history of this conflict the TTP is surrounded from three sides (North and East covered by the Pakistani military and west by the LeT and AI). on the fourth direction i-e, south and south west lies the inaccessible Tora Bora mountain ranges, which itself is death penalty to climb without the proper high altitude equipment lacked by the TTP and LI. The gaps are being plugged by the Pakistani military and affiliated tribesmen who are anti Taliban because of the latter's bloody thirst of power for which they are ravaging the tribal areas of Pakistan while what is now widely believed by the Pakistanis to be a foreign hostile agenda with TTP as their pawns.

If this game goes in accordance with the plan of GHQ at Rawalpindi, the TTP is in for a disaster like none before ........................................ Pakistan Army have got many scores to settle in this battle.