END GAMES- POLITICAL CRISIS IN PAKISTAN

As expected the ever powerful Pakistani Military walked in to save the day yet again for Pakistan. The incompetent Nawaz Sharif government camp failed to negotiate a political settlement with the twin protests of Imran Khan and Dr Tahir Ul Qadri. As predicted, the real brokers walked in the pavilion but only after the corrupt regime ruling the nuclear armed country requested the Chief of Army Staff to negotiate on their behalf. The Nawaz Sharif regime had no other option after ordering crack downs on these protests thrice to quell this issue in traditional third world style but  the Police Officers simply refused to move without specific written orders after the Sharif government stance to frame their kin in a similar move at Lahore resulting in the killing of 14 protesters and 90 injured including women and children. The written orders for such a crackdown by Nawaz Sharif means defying the moral grounds but more than that the clear cut warning from the Army to refrain from any such move after the state terrorism at Lahore stated above. Sharif brothers holds no moral authority in the face of election rigging and corruption charges leveled by the mass protests at Pakistan, concurred by clear cut majority of educated and aware Pakistanis. Under the circumstances  picking up a direct confrontation with the country's most powerful institution means Gallows for the Sharif Clan for charges ranging from murder to treason if tide now surging, throw them off the board. It's a battle of survival for Nawaz Sharif and his brand of politics in Pakistan where they were always above the Law of the land and thrived under the international concepts of "Neo Realism" where the global powers extract cooperation amid anarchy from the world and end justifies the means. Across the board accountability, as demanded by these protests at Pakistan means questions being raised on billions of US dollars which vanished in thin air filling the coffers of the Sharifs, Zardaris, Bhuttos and their brand of politicians at the expense of Pakistani public.

Inviting the Army may turn out to be the biggest blunder Nawaz Sharif committed in this battle of survival for his unholy empire. Nawaz has had the support of the western governments including UK and US but when it comes to his staunch support in the neighboring traditional rivals to Pakistan, India, by the Indian Nationalists, it stung the Army into disgust and they smelt treason. The Army is driven by the pulse of it's men who represents the middle classes of Pakistan and believe on merit and rule of Law above rest. These ideals are inscribed into them by the founding father of the nation, Mr Jinah, and for these ideals foremost they don't hesitate in laying their lives for defending the physical and ideological frontiers of the country. However, the Army realize for a fact that Nawaz Sharif and his cronies are the Frankenstein created by their predecessors to legitimize their dictatorship. For that reason alone Army is treading very carefully not to step on to any landmine in a situation where they are already committed in a "War Within" against the extremist forces spreading terror and lawlessness making Pakistan a terrorist heaven. Nawaz Sharif under pressure and capitalizing on his age old methods of give and take formula, ceded the foreign and defense policy to the Army. But the Army does not trust the words of Nawaz and rightly so considering his dubious credentials. In the meantime all the nepotistic characters who have their vested interests on stake in case of a system overhaul which is being demanded by the educated masses led by the middle class are pitching their forces to save Nawaz and Co. But as this scribe pointed in last three successive articles published on this blog, the broker of this political deadlock having the power to settle this clash of "Status quo Vs Rights" is the Pakistan Army headed by a patriotic man whose family laid lives for the country.

General Raheel Sharif, Chief of Pakistani Army is surely in a tight spot where he needs to resolve this issue in a way all parties are more or less on board. However, the bias of General Raheel will be determined by the pulse of the force he commands which gives him such mighty powers. The force which is essentially Pakistani Nationalist and Patriots. A force which clearly wants Pakistan to grow into an economically viable, fair and just country with equal rights for all. Idealistic views to many commentators and rightly so in this nepotistic system which defines Pakistan but the force General Raheel commands are idealists for they don't mind laying their lives and that of their kith and kin for their motherland. This Nationalistic ideology is the philosophy through which the military attains the moral power to meddle into the civilian politics and trusted by the educated and aware Pakistanis to include the workers and sympathizers of the ruling party too. Irrespective of the media wars and political maneuvering of the ruling elite, the decision and outcome of this political deadlock which the fragile Pakistani economy can no longer afford, Army will decide sooner then latter to end it all............question is for whose answers are being sorted out by the Army is, how to end it well?...........................          

          

WINDS OF CHANGE-II--POLITICAL CRISIS AT PAKISTAN

Again, I was there today at the democratic political mass protest at Islamabad, led by the cricket star turned politician Imran Khan and the religious scholar Dr Tahir Ul Qadri. The atmosphere at these mass protests can not be described in the words, but could only be sensed. The scenes were historic and moods were defiant in the protests now entering its 8/9th day yet the electricity in the crowds was clearly of highest voltage irrespective of the hot and highly humid weather. The participants at the twin protests are demanding a system overhaul in essence at Pakistan in the face of a society and government engulfed in nepotism and corruption. But the style of this demand is like never seen before in the history of Pakistan. The crowds there includes people of all ages but mostly youth in concurrence with the demographic statistics of Pakistan. They belonged to all the various classes of Pakistan from the very top to bottom. However, they all had one thing in common at both the protests, they wanted a true progressive change in the governance at Pakistan and restore their country into the dream that was once seen by Dr Allama Muhammad Iqbal and brought into reality under the able leadership of Muhammad Ali Jinah. It got lost from the death of Mr Muhammad Ali Jinah in the earliest year of Pakistan's inception after independence from the British colonial rule which he led against the major opposition of Hindu Indians.

Pakistan as it stands today is a typical third world corrupt autocracy where power lies with the richest and access to government is for sale. Anyone who has enough black money can buy his way to power, only to plunder national wealth in the name of development loans. How the system still survives? and still breathing? is owing to the complicated power dynamics of Pakistan, where the actual power is shared between the Politicians, Judiciary and Military led establishment. The first and the last stake holders are the one who are always in a tug of war where obviously the mightier wins at most. Since last seven years the politicians are sitting at the throne while this period saw Pakistan deteriorating into an abyss of troubles. National debt rose drastically while inflation hit rock bottom in an economy where Politicians were busy looking after each other's interest foremost. Mass corruption and mismanagement saw the kind of governance which led to Pakistani population's discontent in general. Under the scenario the voices of Imran Khan and Dr Tahir Ul Qadri emerged as the singular hope for the educated and aware masses while both these leaders masterfully capitalized on the bad governance decisions and mismanagement of the Nawaz Sharif led government while his younger brother's government at Punjab province murdered fourteen innocent male and mostly female workers of Dr Qadri in cold blood at Lahore.

This is a genuinely politically and democratically aware mass movement with hundred of thousands of volunteer crowds present to state their support with both these leaders. This is a movement for a true democratic change in the governance model where accountability is demanded for everyone with a transparent honest rule of Law and Justice for all which is seriously lacking in the present system. This is a move of Pakistani nationalist crowd who wants to see a free and fair system based on merit and honesty which enforces loyalty to the masses above every other allegiances for rulers.

Dr Tahir Ul Qadri and Imran Khan are playing with the public sentiments of disgust towards a system bogged in hypocrisy and nepotism promoting rampant corruption down to grass rout level starting from the very top. Imran khan masterfully challenged the international financial institutions with threats of civil disobedience and declared any further loan to the Nawaz Sharif regime as an "Odious Loan". The Nawaz Sharif government critically depends on local and foreign borrowing of Rs 6 billion per day in a fast depleting foreign reserves treasury. If the lenders confidence is shaken which it should be by the open challenge declaring all loans to the present regime not to be repaid if Imran Khan comes to power under the category of "Odious Loans" as per the international law, Nawaz Sharif's ability to financially manage the government will vanish in days.

Mr Khan played skillfully under the seasoned advisory of former foreign minister Shah Mehmood, with the anti Americans sentiments at Pakistan while he declared Nawaz Sharif a traitor for the US state department issued a statement in his support. Nawaz Sharif is fast loosing space on the power turf to the ever powerful Pakistani Military. The situation as analyzed by this scribe 11 days ago stands as it was stated, with the Pakistani Military emerging as the real broker of the political dead lock at Islamabad. The protests are spreading fast across the country but it remains peaceful and within democratic norms. However, this is exactly what the opposition to these protests is "Not". The lust of power, arrogance and greed are the motivations for the kind of people mostly who opposes any viable change in the prevailing corrupt system which serves their vested interests at best. They mock the present protests which is fast gaining momentum even against a campaign to malign this volunteer movement by the government.

 The government is but forced into inaction towards any crackdown on these mass protests which they crave dearly, but would bring upon them the wrath of the military boots if they dare. Besides that the senior police officers have refused to obey any such government orders to use force against the crowds at these movement without the orders being given in written form. This attitude of the civil servants is the response of the Sharif brothers autocratic hypocritical rule.

Nawaz Sharif regime is playing its last few cards to retain their hold on power with the charges of mass corruption and murder awaiting down the throne. Their families have already left the country and moved abroad where their huge actual assets lie accumulated through mega corruption in true Pakistani present political style plundering the national wealth with both hands. Pakistanis are tired of this system marred with the stink of malfeasance and injustice. They truly require a change to survive as a Nation State for which they are out there on the streets braving all odds. The momentum of this mass movement is building up by the day across the country in the face of a payola opposition threatening and intimidating these aspirants of change in this graft system.

Political fever is high on the beats of patriotic and political music in these protests with "dancing and chanting crowds". These are the definite winds of progressive change where masses gather daily for long hours including women, handicapped people and the elderly to young.

Whatever the specific or legal issues and its solutions being debated across the board for the resolution of this stand off and the role of different stake holders and their respective point of view, it is the beginning of the aspired change by these masses present at these protests and their families back home. The public sentiments will direct the outcome of this standoff at Islamabad with the Army sooner or latter forced to intervene. The Nawaz Sharif Clan and the system through which they rule, lacks the capacity to handle the upright demands of these crowds as spelled by their leaders Imran Khan  and Dr Qadri. They are demanding a system overhaul through constitutional amendments and electoral reforms with transparent form of government on modern established western democratic trends with across the board accountability. These demands threatens the very foundations of Pakistani political system in vogue based on partisanship. These demands can only be enforced through the kind of force visible in the eyes of these mass protesters. It has to be done now is the call and the air smells of a revolution. Time is ticking for the Nawaz Sharif regime and its cronies who are fast loosing nerves.....................                    

WINDS OF PROGRESSIVE CHANGE-POLITICAL CRISIS IN PAKISTAN

The public mood at the mass protest going on at Islamabad at both congregations led side by side by Imran Khan and Dr Tahir Ul Qadri can be best defined as proud, "festive" and highly energetic with approximately more than  "80%"  of "youth" as it's essential participants. People are dancing at the patriotic and party songs, praying with their fellow protesters while all aspiring to see a true democracy which gives them their due rights instead of a system at present which is based on status quo, feudalism and rampant corruption.

If the demography of Pakistan is studied in detail, the most interesting thing to note would be that Pakistan is population wise one of the world's youngest nation. As per the UN demographic statistics of Pakistan following is worthy to be noted :-

• Population: 186,703,573 (May 2014 est.)
• Growth rate: 1.49% (2014 est.)

Pakistan is the sixth biggest nation of the world today with more than "60%" of its population ranging between age 15-64 (UN survey of 2011) . With these statistics and crowds as young as teen age boys in thousands not even eligible to vote to men and women in their thirties and forties forming more than 80% of the voluntarily gathered protesters at these demonstrations amounting to hundreds of thousands in total should be a sign for the thinking minds for what holds the future for Pakistan.

Pakistan is a country rich with mineral resources like 642 billion dollars gold reserves at Reko Diq and numerous other riches, also possessing a geopolitical location which is unique and precious to the global power dynamics of Euro-Asia region in general and Central and South Asia in particular. The immense "Punishment Taking Ability" of Pakistan has defied all sinister clandestine moves by the enemies of the Pakistani state to disintegrate her. Pakistan possesses a nuclear armed strategic forces along with  formidable conventional defence forces meeting up to all challenges thrown at them, may it be foreign or domestic. With this amazing potential, the rulers of Pakistan, as they are today lack the capacity to harness these vast amounts of resources at their disposal, but are only busy filling their own coffers with shady deals and taking turns at the power corridors, may it be the military dictators, their created dummies cum Frankenstein  like Nawaz Sharif and Co and the hijackers of Pakistan People's Party or the Political Mullahs selling their respective brands of religion . The youth of Pakistan is out demanding an end to this quagmire and wants to see the rule of Law and easy access to Justice through valid constitutional reforms in a system based on "might is right" and downright disgusting acceptance of the rampant corruption prevailing in the Pakistani society taking it as routine business. What's odious to know is the obnoxious arguments of the seemingly educated elite enjoying a leisure life going with their shortsighted version that Pakistan should allow this business as usual as it suits their vested interests or fake political ideals.

The demand at Islamabad by hundreds of thousands joining these protests is to see an end to the sick system they live in with a vibrant and progressive democracy as it prevails in Europe and America. Whereas implementation of the same may not be ideal by obvious standards by critiques but at least it would be the beginning of the end of the sluggish, corrupt and rotten system currently prevailing in Pakistan.

Nawaz Sharif and Co have decided to defy any real change to the venal system they are running and at best brush these protests under the carpet with the ongoing media war they are waging to prove that the situation is nothing more then ordinary. The Nawaz Sharif and co even collectively are unable to gather such a crowd as that at Islamabad or anything near this in the support of their government. The Elections which brought them to power are highly controversial with millions of bogus votes proven through video and documentary evidence. The real supporters of Nawaz Clan are the padded lot of Pakistan who have either adopted or accepted the foul play known as the way of life at Pakistan. "Such attitudes and practices are the basis of bringing a nefarious name for Pakistan abroad and the real hurdle to any progress domestically".

From where Pakistan stands today with its major population demanding a change to the unprincipled system lacking any real accountability, in a peaceful, democratic manner out on the roads of Islamabad, things are only expected to get better, may it takes time and further efforts as such. What's heartening to note is that Pakistanis from all walks of life including handicapped citizens and those carrying their infants in their arms are out there at the twin protests at Islamabad and support the change they desire for a better, democratic and prosperous Pakistan for them and their generations to come. They don't believe in the current rotten system they are living in and do not for an instant see it as the Pakistan their grandparents shed their blood for. They are not willing to wait any further and sit in a docile manner expecting this change in the system and way of life they seek at Pakistan to happen itself but are out on the roads demanding a "free fair Pakistan".............. These are the "Winds of Progressive Change" here at Pakistan for good and for the better...... This is not about Imran Khan, Tahir Ul Qadri or Nawaz Sharif in the end, it is about the "idea of free and fair democratic Pakistan".    

                      

POLITICAL STORM RISING IN PAKISTAN-WHAT HOLDS THE FUTURE

Dr Tahir Ul Qadri (TUQ), while addressing the charged crowd of thousands of his die hard supporters at Lahore today announced to join forces with Imran Khan (IK) and march to the capitol Islamabad to bring down the Sharif Government on the country's independence day, i-e, August 14. With this latest development the Sharif Clan is visibly in thick soup, if it was not already. With the populous support of Imran Khan and the intransigent followers of TUQ joining hands its a perfect recipe of disaster for Nawaz Sharif and Co. The Pakistani political system is based on democracy which is flawed and corrupted in essence. TUQ is vowing is for this system's overhaul, while IK wants the end of present government and take over power. The motives and inspirations of both these leaders and affiliated parties are positive and pro democratic. Nawaz Sharif (NS) and his brand of politicians are no doubt sincere to the country and wants to see it thrive, but utterly lacks the capacity to do so while they continue to govern with the ideology of status quo and politics of intimidation. Nawaz Sharif government consists of his lackeys who ultimately lacks the competence to run their various portfolios as they don't have the skill sets required to do so. Controversial development projects sans transparency bypassing regulations, continued power crises, rising inflation and high sounded promises unfulfilled marks the fourteen months of NS govt in power. IK have been asking for a judicial probe into the alleged elections rigging since an year now, but NS choose to block all ways leading to any such probe. The high handed attitude of NS's brother Shahbaz Sharif governing the biggest province of Punjab in handling the followers of TUQ and killing of the same couple of months ago at Lahore asked for the storm, brewing rite now against the government. The way the NS govt and his kitchen cabinet members dealt with the aftermath of the TUQ workers killings and IK's upcoming protests is downright inefficient, half-witted, rash and idiotic to say the least.

NS government in its visible distress has already enacted article 245 of the constitution and handed over the capitol's security and law and order to the Army. If precedence means anything and to the Pakistani military it always does, the Army was ordered to remain neutral last month when TUQ arrived at Pakistan and NS government shut down the complete country to stop his welcome by the followers of the religious scholar. A repeat of the same shut down at much larger scale is in place at Punjab in particular and whole of Pakistan in general as the scribe write these lines.

In the highly charged political scenario where would this storm lead? is depended on the way the NS govt handles the situation. However, thus far the handling of the situation by the NS govt has been best described above. With this background the situation may get violent while NS and Co uses the Police to manhandle the masses and shed indiscriminate blood of the innocent political workers yet again in their arrogance. TUQ is also calling for blood, "an eye for an eye" is the call he gave his followers today, who were asked by him to fight till death till the fall of the NS clan and his brand of the politics. This whole quagmire is a bit too much to handle for NS and his advisers who are essentially responsible to bring things up to such an alarming situation to begin with. NS lacks the capacity to handle this and likewise crises as expected out a leader of international stature required to run a troubled state such as Pakistan. He has failed in the past and its "de ja voe' " for him and his party yet again it seems.

While the situation is expected to be worsened by all standards in coming 72 hours, both IK or TUQ do not have a constitutional plan to resolve the issues peacefully less NS resigns from power himself and calls for elections. NS is never going to do this because of two basic reasons, foremost of which is that he is an ego maniac who can be best described as such and confirmed as that by his personal staff. Secondly if it comes to that he would love to be labeled as a political martyr while leaving the corridors of power himself is a possibility no way near reality in his case. Only force capable of extracting this resign however and making Sharif a political martyr is the Pakistani Army like they did in the past. In the meanwhile NS government's plan is to act as if everything is normal and its business as usual while they are celebrating the upcoming independence day already. In a bizarre move as such, the govt announced the Armed Forces ceremonial parade on 14 August at Islamabad directly coinciding with the political protests of Ik and now TUQ. To their shame the Army refused bluntly saying  such parades are held on March 23rd that is the Pakistan day and otherwise the Army is already busy fighting a "war within" with enemies both domestic and foreign. However, the Army obliged the NS govt by agreeing to perform an independence parade at the parliament house of a smaller scale. In yet another much more controversial move, NS govt decided to handover the Capitol's law and order to the Army. This further alienated the government while more and more political parties are joining forces with IK and TUQ......

In this backdrop, the Army commanders meet on the morning of August 11 to overview the situation and likely decide their reaction in case the law and order situation in the country gets out of hand and anarchy threatens the country's very coherence providing an opportunity to the enemies of Pakistani state to strike the national integration. Under any such scenario the Army will be forced to act and even arrest the prime minister if circumstances dictates and the same article 245 enacted by NS authorizes the Army to do so constitutionally. It would be in any case a wise action considering the sentiments of the Pakistani population and the mood out there on the streets. Likewise, Army may be forced to arrest IK and TUQ if internal security situation worsens. As always the broker of the upcoming political deadlock will be the Pakistani Military which always acts in concurrence with the aspirations of Pakistani population in general. Next 72 hours and the developments which takes place in them will dictate the Pakistan Army's response to the situation. NS govt will use all resources at its disposal to stop/ fail the political movement of IK and TUQ which is most likely to swell into mindless violence and civil disobedience as a result of the use of unnecessary force by the govt. Army is expected to stay neutral and silent spectator for now till the situation warrants them to act......... What's for sure about to happen is that things are about to get messy here at Pakistan, while the Army waits and see as where to strike and when? while the Pakistan Army this time around realize that martial law is not the way forward and only corruption free democracy is the need of the hour for Pakistan. However, the Military is the only one true power broker in this country still........ And their mood is certainly grim.....while NS camp is very much susceptible to crack from within under intense upcoming pressure...... On the contrary if they are able to sustain it, they will survive this storm....