AN ANALYSIS OF PAKISTANI PEACE TALKS INITIATIVE WITH TALIBANS

Pakistani newly elected leadership led by Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League in a first ever display of unity with Imran Khan's party which is about to make provincial government in the Taliban home ground province of Khybar Pakhtonkhwa asked the so called "father of Talibans", Maulana Sami Ul Haq to bring his volatile children to table for peace talks with the upcoming government. The move was widely expected as both these parties wooed Talibans with the promises such as these proposed talks, an end to US drone attacks in tribal areas and related anti American balderdash. These moves of appeasement, made Talibans not target these parties in otherwise a bloody elections where they openly attacked and successfully marginalized the political campaigns of parties with moderate and liberal agendas in recent Elections 2013 held in the month of May. The Pakistani population which is pragmatic at large in their political manifestos ignored the said attacks on the liberal parties largely owing to the latter's rampant corruption in power and inability to control the sinking economy of the country.

In his speech on 30 April 2013, at the "Day of the Martyrs", essentially celebrated as an event glorifying the sacrifices of Pakistani Armed Forces in the War Against Terror, read Talibans at Pakistan, General Ashfaq Kayani, the all powerful Chief of Army Staff minced no words while he said, I quote :

    "Let their be no doubt, that this war we are fighting is a war for the existence, survival and defense of Pakistan where we must rest the argument as to, by whom and why we got involved in this war. For now, as soldiers we have to do what it takes to win this war, and repay the debt of the martyrs blood spilled by the enemies of the state in this war by factors within or foreign"

Pakistan Armed forces/Police have lost thousands of men in this "war within" and many more became permanently disabled by this war. The onus lies upon the military leadership to make meaning out of this colossal sacrifice of young blood spilled which included scions of powerful military families of Pakistan as well. Pakistani Military is apprehensive of any offer of peace talks to Talibans by the political leadership without the latter first laying down their arms. As in the past all such peace talks and resultant cease fire only proved to be a precious breathing moment for Talibans to regroup and refit their fighting machinery. These apprehensions aside, however, the military believe the political option as the permanent solution to the end of this conflict. But for that they require solid guarantees from the Talibans like demilitarization before prospects of talks. Talibans on the other hand are not so eager to oblige........... General Kayani in his call on to the Nawaz Sharif at Lahore last week conveyed these feelings of the military brass to the incoming Prime Minister beside other issues in as democratic a manner as Pakistani democracy in-transition backed by the military establishment for the first time in history can take it.

At the global scenario, US gave a mixed message to the Pakistanis by reportedly killing Wali Ur Rehman, the second in command of Pakistani Talibans in the first drone strike after Elections at Pakistan. The message is mixed as Pakistani Talibans though, ideological twins of Afghan Talibans are anti Pakistani state and military unlike their Afghan cousins who are discreetly supported by the Pakistani Intelligence. The move of Wali Ur Rehman killing is being taken as an endorsement of the stance of Pakistan Army Chief on this conflict and on the peace talks offer to Talibans by the newly elected political leadership of the country. Talks without comprehensive cease fire like that by IRA at the UK will be worthless in Pakistani military's point of view as proven in the past.

Maulana Sami Ul Haq from the outset is seeking the Pakistan Army's complete confidence and participation for the proposed talks by the newly elected civilian leadership. Military's support and willingness to get on board these peace talks are critical for any viable outcome from these negotiations whereas the former minced no words in setting their preconditions. Talibans are as said earlier, unlikely to accept these conditions. The Pakistani Military can not opt for an option like Sri Lankan Army war against the Tamils where they latter had a sea at their backs, hence faced total destruction. In the case of Pakistan, every time the Pakistani military pushed the Talibans in an offensive the latter escapes into Afghanistan from where they keep on operating without any potent hindrance. Hence the political solution has to take effect sooner or latter, the Pakistani Military believe. Pakistani population, in their urge for peace also desires the same. It's only a matter of time and nerves for which soever the side to give up their preconditions for coming to table talks. Pakistani Political leadership at best can facilitate this process in the said direction. Pakistan would certainly like to end this conflict in the Ireland case scenario rather than the Sri Lankan massacre of the Tamils.

The process which lays ahead is a complex, nerve wrecking game of deceit and confidence both, in which the foremost prerequisites are getting all the stake holders on board. Peace can be achieved but accepting the ground realities by both the essential belligerents, i-e, Pakistan Military and Talibans. Talibans must accept to respect the writ of Pakistani state and it's Military's stance which neither can nor will ever allow the nuclear armed state to fall hostage to them or any one else. The military establishment of Pakistan needs to realize that the inhabitants of the semi autonomous tribal areas of Pakistan are ferociously independent as evident from the history. From the days much before those of the British Raj they remained semi autonomous and must be allowed to remain so within the overall precedent paradigm of Pakistani State. Also needs to be realized the hard fact that the age old tribal control system of FCR law has been systematically destroyed beyond repair at the tribal belt of Pakistan along with the traditional Maliks/Political Agent governance mechanism which lost it's nuisance all together.
The establishment of Islamic Sharia Law as practiced by Federal Sharia Courts of Paksitan  under a council of religious scholars appointed by the "Jirga" comprising of Tribal s and Pakistani government representatives at the Tribal belt is the only answer/permanent solution to curtail the lawlessness, terrorism and related issues at the tribal areas which would be acceptable to all parties......................................Whether the Pakistanis like it or not, as and when begins this labyrinthine procedure of peace talks, the complete confidence and background participation of USA as a stake holder will be the most crucial factor for the success or failure of this exercise.                      
     

Study of Demographic Voting Patterns- Elections 2013- Pakistan

In consequence of Elections 2013, held on May 11th, Pakistan choose a new government set to take over power. The results were highly expected and not much of a surprise. Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PMLn) took the lead while the novices Imran Khan's PTI emerged as the runners up. Pakistan Peoples Party was punished by the public for their poor performance in power and marginalized as a regional party of rural Sindh only. The only surprise came in the shape of Khyber Pakhtonkhwa (KPk) province ex ruling party Awami National Party (ANP), which irrespective of the personal sacrifices made by its leaders was almost completely rejected by the Pakhtuns over Imran's PTI.

 A brief analysis of the voting trends and patterns aside the 10-15% rigging essentially at the metropolis of Karachi and somewhat at Punjab only proves the conformist approach of Pakistani population.

Urban Sindh either by hook or through crook elected the remotely controlled  MQM( Muthadha Qaumi Movement), however with a controversial mandate this time. Rural Sindh sided with the expected party i-e, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf of Imran Khan emerged as visible runners up at urban sindh while the independents and nationalist parties were the real opposition at rural Sindh for PPP.
Baluchistan as usual saw a mixed selection with PMLn to their leadership's credit emerging as an equal partners with the nationalist parties marking a healthy trend for future political scenario of the province and country both.
Punjab being the battleground for ultimate race for Islamabad voted as usual in traditional patterns. Punjabis voted for the stronger contender that was PMLn. However PTI emerged as a serious challenge to PMLn supremacy in the province and the country. It was only the novice leadership of PTI which stopped the party in gaining another 25-30 seats in the national assembly from across Punjab besides PMLn influence in the province established over their five years rule.
KPk in tradition with their past rejected ANP completely over a sloppy performance while in power with their coalition partners PPP. KPk in visible majority voted in favour of Imran Khan's PTI. However PMLn and the colourful cleric Fazul Ur Rehamn's party JUI also obtained considerable mandate from the province.

If PTI is successful in forming a government at KPk and implementing their proclaimed agenda in the province, they are well on their way to become the next governing party of Pakistan. However, it will be the litmus test for the novice party in order to prove their credibility in this regard which is directly linked with their future prospects in power politics of Pakistan. PMLn in the meantime after the celebrations will have to settle a shattering economy, law and order fiasco and severe power shortages across the country. These are the issues which will be detrimental in ascertaining the PMLn national solidity and prospective in power.  Least to say, both the parties are in for a turbulent ride.        

COMPREHENDING CHAOS-ELECTIONS 2013, PAKISTAN

In his keynote of the speech on the eve of Yaum-e-Shuhada (Day of the Martyrs) on April 30^th 2013, the most powerful man in Pakistan killed any and all rumors and speculations with regard to not holding the General Elections 2013 on the prescribed date, i-e, May 11 in the country.  Listening to him from close distance in the backdrop of Martyrs Monument at the Army’s Head Quarters, one could easily make out that these are the words coming straight from the heart of this man leaving no doubt in the minds of anyone listening to General Kayani that Democratic process will not prevail in this country, at least for the time being. The expected terrorist attacks in the shape of bombings and killings of political workers and leaders in recent past gave rise to such speculations as to the seriousness and credibility of the Pakistani establishment in holding free and fair polls. The Chief of Army Staff left no ambiguity in proclaiming the support of the Pakistani Army for the democratic process. The only Islamic nuclear Republic is hence; open for electing democratic leadership deciding the future course for this embattled country in a drastic “War Within”.

It is extremely difficult to describe the Pakistani Electoral process with the help of any particular model related to the modern world democratic process. To understand the Pakistani politics based upon, clans, kinsmen ship, economic pressure groups and establishment backed pawns, one needs to study deep down into the roots and on ground sociopolitical scenario of almost every district and division as separate case. The various modern day surveys and opinion polls were found to be flawed in essence as seen in the past experience of Pakistani politics. The overall public sentiments does matter in an outcome of an election at Pakistan, but engineering the process through systematic corruption have also been the trick of the trade in the past by the Pakistani establishment. However, public sentiments have always been critically analyzed and form the basis for either backing off or exploitation of the same. This time round however, the situation is unique due to various factors which are First in the history of Pakistani electoral politics. They are:
> First ever democratic changeover of government at Pakistan without a dictator on the helm.
> Independent Higher Judiciary.
> Caretaker government placed through mutual consensus of all political players of Pakistan.
> Independent Election Commission with a mutually selected Chief by all stake holders.
> Military's complete support of the electoral process.
> Establishment's seemingly inability/unwillingness to influence the electoral process.
> Participation of nationalist parties in the Elections at Baluchistan province.
> Emergence of a fresh political player, Mr Imran Khan and the associated hype and hopes.                                                                                                                                                        > An Election being held under potent threat of violence and it’s on ground implementation by the Pakistani Taliban and associates denouncing the democratic process as Un Islamic and targeting the political parties, in particular those with moderate/secular agendas.                                                                                          > Under the fear of Terrorism, “Litmus Test” of Pakistani public to support democracy and their way of life.

 With regards to the Pakistani national power politics and strong players emerging after the last Elections, brief party wise analysis of major contenders is presented as under along with their prospects post Elections 2013:-

> Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), enjoying the sympathy vote in the aftermath of the assassination of their chairperson in 2008 Elections came into power, by winning National Assembly (NA)'s 124 seats out of total 272. They successfully maintained their government for 5 years in the shadows of their kingmaker, President Asif Ali Zardari by repeatedly changing their coalition partners. The ruling party along with its coalition partners could only perform marginally, while the country saw a drastic increase in corruption, inflation, critical power crises and bad governance. The successes were limited and obscure if any. In the current elections, even at their hotbed of Sindh province and southern Punjab, PPP is expected to face tough competition in the face of a prodigal performance in power. It is expected that PPP will lose almost all seats at both national and provincial level wheresoever’s, they face even minute credible opposition. They will however, be able to retain only the rural seats of confirmed electable s who influence the financial livelihood of their voters (essentially

at Sindh province). PPP is also expected to win agricultural belt rural seats for the food price inflation in their complete tenure which greatly benefited the locals of these areas who saw a huge increase in their fortunes. In urban centers and industrial cities/towns, PPP is expected to suffer heavily over the sloppy performance while in power. Their chance of coming back into power is limited to only at provincial level of Sindh, that too with various question marks with MQM's loyal vote bank and Pakistan Muslim League-Functional (PML_F) led by Pir Pagara emerging as a potent force challenging their supremacy in the province. President Zardari will however give it his best try to make yet another coalition, how may so ever dysfunctional it proves to be, but in his last ditch effort to get his party back into the treasury benches.

> Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML_N) led by Mr Nawaz Sharif played a very mature and cool headed role in last five years. They supported the democratic process and helped nullify various attempts to botch the same. In Elections-2008 with a dedicated vote of an overall 19.6%, they won 91 National Assembly seats and helped PPP form the central government, which they left subsequently. At their hotbed of Punjab they formed the government independently by securing the highest number of seats i-e, 171.  Mr Nawaz Sharif remained out of practical governance in last five years while concentrating his efforts at improving his party's vote bank at Sindh, the home ground of PPP and NWFP, now K Pk (Khyber Pakhtonkhwa) province. He also successfully sabotaged the Musharraf Era political alliances against his party and shaped a pitch in five years which now favours his team's potential to the max. By far the PML(N) is the strongest contender to form the national government, and that in Punjab province with only competition it faces from cricket star turned politician Imran Khan and his party Pakistan Tehreek E Insaaf (PTI). PML(N) is expected to retain almost all of their rural area seats in Punjab, where they have loyal vote bank dedicated to their party. Punjab also holds the maximum population hence the key to form the national government. PML(N) is expected to perform way better than previous elections in all remaining three provinces as well where they have found powerful political alliances already. At present it seems that PML(N) will be able to come into power  if they succeed in forging a successful coalition with likeminded parties and wooing the successful independent politicians .

>Pakistan Muslim League(Q), PML(Q) , termed as the King's party was engineered to break the Nawaz Sharif's Clan power by General Pervaiz Musharraf and came into power with the active support of the establishment under the auspices of the said dictator. Under the seasoned leadership of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, the party survived till date and formed part of ruling coalition with the PPP at the center in the last year of their power. The party has been broken and badgered by skillful maneuvering of PML(N) bosses and does not possess any winning chance to form future government anywhere in the country. But behold, the Chaudries of Gujrat, who can pull a rabbit out of their hat every other time. PML(Q) is expected to win few seats in the national and provincial legislatures at the most. In any case, their hay days are over by a big margin in the present situation.

>Muthadda Qaumi Movement(MQM). MQM is an ethnic party of Urdu speaking population of Pakistan, aspiring to gain a national status. MQM is remotely controlled by their controversial leader Mr Iltaf Hussain from London. MQM skillfully managed to be part of all three previous governments in the country while maintaining a distinct political identity. Their hold on the metropolis of Karachi is critical for any Pakistani government for the financial well being of the country. MQM secured an overall 7.4% dedicated vote bank winning 25 NA seats in 2008. They formed part of the ruling alliance in Center and Sindh province while partly resigning from power at the last leg of PPP's term. This was a trade mark MQM move to launch election campaign for 2013, distancing themselves from the failures and follies of the PPP led government. MQM is likely to win once again at least 15-25 National seats in coming Elections. MQM's power is very less likely to diminish as a potent political actor influencing the financial brain of Pakistan, i-e, Karachi any time in near or distant future. MQM will retain their hold on power through their influence at Karachi which affects the whole country’s financial health.

>Awami National Party (ANP). ANP, is a Pashtun Nationalist party from the province of NWFP, which ANP renamed to Khyber Pakhtonkhwa or in short K Pk in their recent term in power. From this same province belong the Pakistani Taliban and associated terrorists groups. ANP won 13 seats in the national assembly in 2008. ANP was part of the PPP lead coalition government for last 5 years. ANP lost their prominent senior leaders and their family members in “war on terror” they were forced to fight. The sad saga continues to date with the Pakistani Taliban targeting the ANP leaders now out in the open running their election campaigns. The resolve of ANP to fight this naked aggression and the sacrifices of their leaders is continuously gaining them the "sympathy vote bank" in particular at their home province. ANP is expected to come out stronger than before as result of upcoming Elections-2013 owing to the moral and physical courage their leaders are displaying in the face of Taliban and associated terrorists naked aggression. Their election campaigns will get bloodier with every passing week, but they are expected to remain steadfast. This quality alone will fetch them enough votes to regain the Provincial government at least. At the center, they will perform better than before and win at least 15 seats or more. They are expected to also come out strong in Sindh's capital Karachi with their bid to secure few more provincial assembly seats than the 4 won last time in the presence of large ethnic Pashtun population settled there. Overall, ANP irrespective of being a part of much controversial PPP government is likely to perform better and remain a major player in national politics.

>Pakistan Tehreek E Insaaf, PTI , Lead by the charismatic personality of Imran Khan, supported by the youth and of Pakistan forming 48% of the population, participating for the first time ever in Pakistani electoral process with a clean slate, can safely be termed as the favourites of Elections 2013. The educated lot of Pakistan who will vote for the very first time in the Pakistani electoral history are coming out to vote in millions supporting Imran Khan. The appeal of Imran Khan's personality, the option to see someone new in power and the desire for change by Pakistanis led PTI to emerge as a major contender in Elections 2013.

It is interesting to note that the mass support for Imran Khan's PTI is certain to bring huge vote bank in their favour all over the country. However, when it comes to elective politics down to the constituencies level, PML(N) is more likely to win the seats possessing dedicated vote bank there. The business community across Pakistan, especially those holding small and medium level enterprises are also expected to side with PML(N) instead of PTI keeping PML(N)'s  past experience and positive performance in government suiting the business community.  PTI might form an electoral alliance with JI( Jammat e Islami) to form the opposition but their chances to make central government irrespective of massive support and public sentiments are second to the earlier. Evident reasons supporting this deduction are lack of experience causing immaturity in PTI contenders, political inflexibility of Imran Khan and much too dependence on the personality of Mr Khan alone by his party.

It is assumed that Imran Khan’s stubborn unwillingness, to form an electoral alliance with any major political party will become the cause of PTI staying out of power. It is but interesting to note that Imran Khan under pressure from his senior party leaders is willing to go back on his words like any regular politician and talk to parties like MQM whom he strictly opposed rather abused in the past. Anything of the sort where PTI succeed in obtaining simple majority to form government at Islamabad as a result of Elections 2013 will be simply out of the blue............But PTI is surely the underdogs this time round and all it takes is a knockout punch for the underdog to defeat the heavyweight, if it has to go that way...............A revolution of youth by voting massively in favour of Imran Khan and PTI would be that knockout punch, having the upset capacity to turn tables and change fortunes in Elections-2013. The powerful Pakistani establishment having deep rooted influence on many electable politicians would like to see Imran Khan's PTI be the winners with lack of experience in negotiating the maze of the corridors of power rather an experienced Nawaz Clan who knows how to handle and curtail their influences in the country ........This certain uncertainty, hope and hype makes it all the more exciting a competition, with two parties to watch out for,i-e, PML(N) and PTI on MAY 11th, 2013. Out of these two parties, the one successful in wooing the smaller ones like JUI of the colourful cleric, Maulana Fazal ur Rehman, PML(F) of the Pir of Pagara, and the 18 to 20 independent winners will form the Pakistani National Government. With lucrative offers the loyalties of parties like MQM and ANP etc can also be obtained. MQM is historically known to be a pro establishment party, which tilts the delicate balance being discussed here in favour of Imran Khan. Forming an unnatural alliance with the PPP can also get them to power for the party willing to commit political suicide out of these two. It’s a complex game of wits and political wisdom. However, in comparison, Mr Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif surely know how to play this game much better than the idealist, Imran Khan. But even if Imran Khan's PTI fails in making the central government through a coalition, Pakistan will see a true opposition in the parliment which is critical for the fair functioning of any democratic governance system. By the time of publishing this article, Imran Khan got injured during a rally at Lahore, falling off from 15 feet while climbing the stage on a fork lifter. He is out of danger though but his injuries bring to mind the memory of  Chen Shui-bian campaign in 2004 in Taiwan (three-way race, darkhorse candidate gets shot right before election, pulls sympathy vote, wins presidency). The message of Imran Khan from the hospital bed reverberated on the TV screen across Pakistan; Don't vote for me, vote for "change" 

To conclude on a personal note, I'm voting for the promise of change after two days. I'm voting Imran Khan.