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Monday 26 January 2015

Indo-US Strategic Alliance- Impact On The Region




 With the hugging of Modi and Obama, the Indo-US strategic alliance is taking off with much fanfare and jubilation while US President is the chief guest at the Indian republican day celebrations. The announcements of US support for a permanent seat for India at UN security council and the finalization of civil nuclear technology deal are the feathers in the Indian cap to begin with. The impetus of this alliance revolves around the mega market economies of both US and India which will both benefit from this partnership. The technological backward India (as compared to China) provides a huge opportunity for the US companies to do business in India while the US consumer market is a lucrative option for the Indian merchants. However, there are much deeper and far reaching strategic implications of this alliance for Asia in particular. These impacts needs to be analyzed in detail :

The Indo-US strategic alliance is the continuation of the US attempt to create a regional counterweight to China. India and China have historical troubles which include an all out war over territorial disputes.India while it aligns with the US is being prepared to became a regional power, which will effectively counter the Chinese influence in the Central Asian Region and also at far east Asia with the Aussies already in the western camp. US also hopes that the rise of India as a leading global economy will check the Chinese ever increasing global clout, particularly in the Asian pacific, which is the region critical for the global economy viz-a viz the US interests.    

 US while it withdraws from Afghanistan views India as a credible strategic partner to support the incumbent US backed regime at Kabul. While China may not have any problem with a stable government at Kabul, they do view these Indo-US aspirations as meddling by them in the very backyard of theirs. To top it off, the Russians are not at all enthusiastic about these Indo-US plans for Afghanistan which bears direct consequences for the energy rich Central Asian Republics. The Russians might be busy with their own problems but it is least likely, they will give up on the Eurasian aspirations they have while the US keeps on playing in its backyard. Things are expected to get murkier thus in this context for the time being. The key part of to this puzzle at Afghanistan is Pakistan's support. Pakistan affords the most viable trade access to Afghanistan hence Central Asia being a land locked region. Pakistan in this case leaves no ambiguity while aligning with the Chinese in all regards. The Pakistanis thus will pivot the same way the Chinese will.        

How does China takes this global merger? is a trillion dollar question. Although, fighting terrorism and trade are two common grounds where the US, Indian and Chinese interests converge. However, the Chinese are well aware about the Indian designs implemented on ground, sponsoring the Pakistani Taliban as Indian proxies targeting Pakistan, which is a deep rooted Chinese ally. The Chinese nationals are being targeted and killed in thousands in Pakistan by these mercenaries hired by India. Chinese response is not at all kind, but in kind it seems while the Indian Mao rebel movements and their sponsorship are traced. China is also active in effectively neutralizing the Indian hegemonic influence in States like Nepal and Bhutan. Chinese it seems are unwilling to reconcile with the role US desires for India, as the same directly jeopardizes the Chinese strategic interests in the region.

Regarding trade and commerce, China is currently the biggest trading partner with the US as the top consumer market for their goods. US designs to put the Indians on global economic map through the Indo-US partnership. This directly affects the Chinese consumer market with the US desire to provide an Indian alternative to the Chinese Influence in the US. It is within the US business's right  to do business or trade within a free market economy. State sponsorship do give a boost to such trade arrangements. Economies are driven by investments and the Chinese are the biggest investors in the US economy at the moment. How the Chinese investors react to any such move will be highly interesting. In this regard, the Indians are expected to meet disappointment under the market competitiveness and already existing huge Chinese influence in the US market. The US tech firms will be a clear winner in developing countries such as India. Simultaneously , with nuclear, defense and associated deals coming out of the Indo-US strategic merger which again greatly favours the latter

Indo-US strategic alliance is a direct challenge to the People's Republic of China in terms of its strategic regional influence and global economic interests. Under the calm surface, the undercurrents are volatile and dangerous for the region pitching India and China is an open confrontation. How and if the US administration is able to sell this deal to the Chinese will decide the outcome of this whole scenario. In the meantime Barack Obama seems to know what he is doing with the US as a clear winner here while they walk out with huge economic benefits and leaves a protege in the region, which will do their dirty work in places like Afghanistan while at the same time keeping the Chinese ascent in check.

        

Sunday 4 January 2015

INDIANS PLAYING WITH FIRE-REPERCUSSIONS FOR THE REGION

Indian National Security Advisor, Mr Ajit Doval in a recorded address to a hall filled with university students explained the Indian State policy to target Pakistan through the proxy mercenaries a.k.a Taliban and exploit the vulnerabilities of their arch rivals by financing the troubles for Pakistan (from Afghanistan). The video of the said address is making rounds across the social media sounding loud, the cold play of Mr Doval who is an Indian spook specializing in targeting the neighboring Pakistan. as per Ajit Doval, these so called Mujaheddin are nothing more then jobless mercenaries who needs to be hired and put to work, in this case targeting Pakistan. Sadly enough, Mr Doval is rite in proclaiming what he does with certain dichotomies. The US secretary of defense earlier in a public address confirmed that India is financing trouble for Pakistan from Afghanistan, hence Mr Doval's address came as no big surprise at Pakistan. Pakistanis are well aware and make no hiding of the fact that their arch rival India, through it's so called cultural centers strategically placed along Pakistan-Afghanistan border belt are financing the Terrorist outfits who are targeting Pakistani vulnerabilities. Pakistanis also realize that Indians are able to conduct these black ops owing to the support they are afforded by the US/West thanks to Indian diplomatic strength and more so by the Afghan Northern Alliance who suffered due to the Pakistani support to the Afghan Pakhtoons who forms the Taliban.    

The Taliban and all it's offshoot are two generations of "Islamic Ideological Mercenaries" created basically by the US-Pakistan alliance to fight the Russians in the "Cold War" era. These mercenaries franchises were abandoned by the US after the disintegration of the USSR. However, Pakistan could not afford to do the same due to the geopolitical positioning and found it useful to reorganize the same bunch of mercenaries to control post soviet Afghanistan torn by civil war and anarchy. The gamble played by Pakistan at the time turned in their favour superficially as the Taliban brought strictly enforced peace at Afghanistan. However, this came at the cost of the genocide of thousands of the Hazaras of Afghanistan who have traditional ethnic rivalries with the Pakhtoons who form the bulk of Taliban at Afghanistan. Pakistan made use of these "ideological mercenaries" by employing it's franchises enforced by the Pakistani locals in a covert war at Kashmir against India for the Kashmir Cause, which is a disputed territory. Money kept flowing in to Pakistan for financing these mercenary outfits from the oil rich Arab friends who used the same mercenary franchises to target Iran and the Pakistan Shi'ite population supporting Iran in a sectarian  conflict at greater middle east spread over centuries for the overall influence in the Muslim world. Pakistan remained an Islamic Ideological Mercenary's dream town for well over two decades attracting the likes of Osama Bin Laden and Co. These fanatics were hailed as Islamic heroes by the Pakistani majority population under the state policy of support afforded to these mercenary leaders who played on exploiting the religious sensitivities of the highly emotional and religiously charged youth dominated country with a poor economy. The Mullahs had their field days and Islamist forces saw a sharp rise at Pakistan starting from the Zia era funded by the US govt dollars for the Afghan Jihad subsequently taken over by the Arab petro dollars for the sectarian proxy wars at Paksitan between the House of Suads and Iran where the latter responded in kind to the Sunni led offensive against them at Pakistan. In the meanwhile, Paksitan bled with over 80,000 killed in these sectarian wars, but the Mullahs at all ends flourished and gained power. This led to the establishment of Al-Qaeeda and likewise organizations which grew thanks to the capitalist driven misadventures of the west who waged US led Oil Wars allowing the Mullahs to recruit their ranks selling this capitalist greed as an attack on Islam. 

Came 9/11 changing the complete security paradigm of the globe, and Pakistan in  the face of the US policy of "with us or against us"  joined forces with the US taking a U Turn on its policy to openly support these Islamist Ideological Mercenaries. The repercussions were again severe for Pakistan, whose Frankenstein a.k.a Pakistani Taliban and their ideological fathers, the rags to riches Mullahs of Pakistan declared war on their own state for siding with the infidels. Pakistan bled further with hundreds of thousands killed in a decade long war within in the aftermath. 

Indians found the life time chance to play with the vulnerabilities of Pakistan by giving them a taste of their own medicine. Mr Ajit Doval's parent organization, the Indian intelligence agency RAW, deployed a covert proxy war against Pakistan through their newly found influence at Afghanistan. Pakistan you see is the only hurdle in essence at South Asia to challenge the Indian regional hegemony it desperately desires. Mr Ajit Doval and his friends realize that the fully blown nuclear armed region has an extremely low nuclear threshold while Pakistan continues to match the Indian conventional military superiority with a fast paced increase in her nuclear arsenal. However, in the viewpoint of the Indian National Security Adviser,this policy of financing anti-Pakistani mercenaries who are non state actors, in a proxy war does not hold an implication as that of a nuclear standoff between both the countries. Mr Ajit Doval is rite again in proclaiming this deduction too. The so called " Use ofTerrorism as an element of statecraft by Pakistan" is the selling motivation of the Indian policy to sponsor Terrorism at Pakistan by Ajit Doval and Co. While Pakistan is fighting a war to get rid of the curse of terrorism it brought upon to itself over decades of mindless support to the Islamist extremist factions, Indians are in no mood to allow this to happen. To them a peaceful and powerful Pakistan is nothing more then a headache and impediment to Indian Hegemonic Designs. Mr Ajit Doval suggested to increase all financing of the Islamist Ideological Mercenaries operating from Afghanistan against Pakistan by 50% more then what anyone else is able to pay and recruit their services to play havoc inside Pakistan, which is what  exactly happening at Pakistan. 

A string of mindless terror has been financed by India against Pakistan from the Afghan soil.  These Indian funded terrorists latest target was an Army run public school at Peshawar, Pakistan. Almost 150 innocent young students were blown to bits by these savage dogs including a five year old girl. The complete operation was directed from across the border at Afghanistan's Kunnar province through a cellular call intercepted all along by the Pakistani Security Agencies. The Indian Prime Minister Narindra Modi was the first to condemn the attack, such are the ironies cum benefits of the proxy wars waged by his country against Pakistan.                                          x  


 THE BLOOD OF THE INNOCENT-Pakistani Soldiers during clearance operation at the Army Public School attacked by the terrorists mercilessly massacring hundreds of children.  


The Peshawar attack and its mindless barbaric terror left Pakistanis in shock with condemnation of the act from across the world, but against the terrorists off-course sans their financiers. Pakistan's resilience and the punishment taking ability makes this huge loss bearable starting a national debate and consensus over eliminating terrorism and extremism in Pakistan in all it's shapes and forms. Pakistani Security Forces are ever more busy in fighting the menace of terrorism funded by their Arch Rivals on the Eastern front waging a proxy war onto them from the Western side.

 
BLOOD FOR BLOOD- Pakistani Security forces responded the Peshawar School attack  by killing 37 Taliban Mercenaries the very next day of the tragic attack in a gun battle at Afghan-Pakistan border

In this complete paradigm, in the opinion of this scribe, the Indians are either miscalculating, or choosing to ignore the over all outcome. Sooner or latter, the Indians will be forced to curtail/stop this financing of terror at Pakistan after achieving the desired goals or under domestic pressures and repercussions of this policy of sponsoring terrorism. If the core Indian goal is the disintegration and balkanization of Pakistan, the Indians won't be able to achieve that even if they triple their finances for these mercenaries they have unleashed onto Pakistan. You see the Indian script writers here failed to realize or as I said choose to ignore that the snakes,they are feeding will bite their own hand on the first available opportunity, just as they did to their original masters, Pakistan. It's just a matter of time. Pakistan while realizing the same after suffering and beating of unprecedented magnitudes are taking steps to severe ties with all such terrorists outfits less those which specifically targeting India alone, Why? the above narrative should be enough an explanation for any thinking mind.

India's desire to hold Afghanistan after the pullout of US/ISAF Forces in coming days with the help of a meager US troops presence restricted to its basis and the Afghan National Army is a far fetched design not possible to be materialized. The anti western forces at Afghanistan like the Taliban with the time at their side awaits the US and west to pull out while heating up the Afghan conflict and signaling the start of yet another civil war at Afghanistan. With India and Pakistan dagger drawn to settle scores with each other, it would be doomsday for the Afghan civilians like the days of the past. A drastic and paradigm shift in India-Pakistan relations is the only hope for the Afghans whether all the belligerents realize it or not. Pakistan is the only player on the table with cards to extract limited but useful pressure on the Afghan Pakhtoons who form the Taliban to take part in the political process at Afghanistan for the sake of stability and peace in the region. With the Indians clearly vouching for the other side that is Afghan Northern Alliance and taking on Pakistan internally through the mercenary network it finances as a state policy, Pakistan can never be convinced to help Afghanistan settle.      

Only a paradigm shift in the bilateral relations between India and Pakistan would see any meaningful change in the tragedies of the general populace at Pakistan and India both. The Pakistanis are willing to grant an unlimited Indian access to the land locked Afghanistan, hence to the trade routes of Central Asia, which is greatest Indian desire. However, for any such thing to materialize in any shape, it requires that paradigm shift in bilateral ties between both these countries that seem to be no where in sight. Going the other way will result in nothing more than chaos and destruction which will ultimately reach India, not far away from the fire it fuels...