With the hugging of Modi and Obama, the Indo-US strategic alliance is taking off with much fanfare and jubilation while US President is the chief guest at the Indian republican day celebrations. The announcements of US support for a permanent seat for India at UN security council and the finalization of civil nuclear technology deal are the feathers in the Indian cap to begin with. The impetus of this alliance revolves around the mega market economies of both US and India which will both benefit from this partnership. The technological backward India (as compared to China) provides a huge opportunity for the US companies to do business in India while the US consumer market is a lucrative option for the Indian merchants. However, there are much deeper and far reaching strategic implications of this alliance for Asia in particular. These impacts needs to be analyzed in detail :
The Indo-US strategic alliance is the continuation of the US attempt to create a regional counterweight to China. India and China have historical troubles which include an all out war over territorial disputes.India while it aligns with the US is being prepared to became a regional power, which will effectively counter the Chinese influence in the Central Asian Region and also at far east Asia with the Aussies already in the western camp. US also hopes that the rise of India as a leading global economy will check the Chinese ever increasing global clout, particularly in the Asian pacific, which is the region critical for the global economy viz-a viz the US interests.
US while it withdraws from Afghanistan views India as a credible strategic partner to support the incumbent US backed regime at Kabul. While China may not have any problem with a stable government at Kabul, they do view these Indo-US aspirations as meddling by them in the very backyard of theirs. To top it off, the Russians are not at all enthusiastic about these Indo-US plans for Afghanistan which bears direct consequences for the energy rich Central Asian Republics. The Russians might be busy with their own problems but it is least likely, they will give up on the Eurasian aspirations they have while the US keeps on playing in its backyard. Things are expected to get murkier thus in this context for the time being. The key part of to this puzzle at Afghanistan is Pakistan's support. Pakistan affords the most viable trade access to Afghanistan hence Central Asia being a land locked region. Pakistan in this case leaves no ambiguity while aligning with the Chinese in all regards. The Pakistanis thus will pivot the same way the Chinese will.
How does China takes this global merger? is a trillion dollar question. Although, fighting terrorism and trade are two common grounds where the US, Indian and Chinese interests converge. However, the Chinese are well aware about the Indian designs implemented on ground, sponsoring the Pakistani Taliban as Indian proxies targeting Pakistan, which is a deep rooted Chinese ally. The Chinese nationals are being targeted and killed in thousands in Pakistan by these mercenaries hired by India. Chinese response is not at all kind, but in kind it seems while the Indian Mao rebel movements and their sponsorship are traced. China is also active in effectively neutralizing the Indian hegemonic influence in States like Nepal and Bhutan. Chinese it seems are unwilling to reconcile with the role US desires for India, as the same directly jeopardizes the Chinese strategic interests in the region.
Regarding trade and commerce, China is currently the biggest trading partner with the US as the top consumer market for their goods. US designs to put the Indians on global economic map through the Indo-US partnership. This directly affects the Chinese consumer market with the US desire to provide an Indian alternative to the Chinese Influence in the US. It is within the US business's right to do business or trade within a free market economy. State sponsorship do give a boost to such trade arrangements. Economies are driven by investments and the Chinese are the biggest investors in the US economy at the moment. How the Chinese investors react to any such move will be highly interesting. In this regard, the Indians are expected to meet disappointment under the market competitiveness and already existing huge Chinese influence in the US market. The US tech firms will be a clear winner in developing countries such as India. Simultaneously , with nuclear, defense and associated deals coming out of the Indo-US strategic merger which again greatly favours the latter
Indo-US strategic alliance is a direct challenge to the People's Republic of China in terms of its strategic regional influence and global economic interests. Under the calm surface, the undercurrents are volatile and dangerous for the region pitching India and China is an open confrontation. How and if the US administration is able to sell this deal to the Chinese will decide the outcome of this whole scenario. In the meantime Barack Obama seems to know what he is doing with the US as a clear winner here while they walk out with huge economic benefits and leaves a protege in the region, which will do their dirty work in places like Afghanistan while at the same time keeping the Chinese ascent in check.
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