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Saturday, 16 December 2017

The Psyche of Pakistani Islamist Extremism in South Asia

Pakistani Islamist extremism is essentially born out of the reactionary radicalism or countermeasures to the Hindu ultranationalists agenda in the sub-continent. Cold war may have played a pivotal role in arming Pakistan and making it a gateway to the Afghan made global narco-economy, but it's still not the root cause of the resident militant extremism in the mainstream Pakistani society. It is, but most definitely, the threat and designs of the Hindu ultranationalist in India which formed this psyche behind Pakistani hardline stance to willingly or subconsciously support militancy against Indian designs in the region.



There may well be a realisation among the Pakistani population that this centuries old blood vendetta is hurting Pakistan much more than her supposed enemies. However, the continued aggressive attitude by the Hindu ultra nationalists, now led by Modi in India, against the Muslims of India and Pakistan fuels this stated psyche of extremism in Pakistan using the Islamic religious sentiments and ideologies.

Leaders from both sides of the nuclear armed neighbourhood having fought three all out, beside many proxy wars, do realize this entire situation. But the political dividends by exploiting this situation on both sides, more so in India for the politicians and clergymen are so humongous that, there is almost no hope in sight for any conflict resolution on state to state level at least.

The partition of India was made possible due to this same sadistic attitude of the majority Hindu population, which has only gone worse in the proceeding seven decades of independence. While Modi in India most recently played the Pakistan card yet again as the 'bogeyman' to scare the voters in Gujarat state elections to vote for his Hindu nationalist ruling party, Pakistanis believe it was the Indian direct involvement which caused the Peshawar School massacre of 16 december 2014.



You can't really blame the Pakistanis, who seek revenge from India in the face of the public speeches by Indian leaders. Mr Ajit Doval is one such example who is the Indian national security advisor caught on tape lecturing university students as to how to play havoc in Pakistan by hiring the 'Taliban' mercenaries from Afghanistan to destabilize Pakistan.

Pakistanis with the pragmatic mindset do realize that, it is a taste of their own medicine they are having from India especially once they themselves directly supported the insurgency in the Indian Kashmir, before taking a complete U-turn in 2004 by the Musharraf regime under severe US pressure. Having said that, time has proved that the Musharraf regime critically undersold and abandoned the Pakistani Kashmir insurgency support mechanism in haste. Musharraf needed to ensure decommissioning the 'Jihadi network' working in Indian Kashmir. He, not only failed to do this, but also over trusted his agreements made with Indian nationalist government led by Late Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Musharraf thought that by unilaterality reversing the Kashmir policy of Pakistan he would somehow make history and solve the 'Kashmir dispute', for once and all. Now only heavens know that, was it? the good vine or women Musharraf enjoyed in India or any substantial agreement which made him unintentionally throw Pakistan in the maze of fighting home grown militancy in which Pakistan struggles to find way till date (Please read:    https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2013/04/case-study-impact-of-musharrafs-kashmir.html  )

Pakistanis are forced till date to maintain and support India centric militant groups, due to the rise of Hindu ultranationalist mindset in India ( Please read :      https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2015/11/the-rise-of-hindu-fundamentalist.html ) . The situation has only worsened by the Indo-US strategic partnership to counter the rise of China in the region ( In this connection, you may like to read:  https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-game-of-wits-us-measures-to-counter.html ) .

In this dog eats dog rat race of a world we live in, one man's freedom fighter is another man's terrorist if the 'other' controls the mainstream media machine. And it is no secret that the Indo-US mainstream media machine control and the global opinion forging capability is far superior than that of Pakistan and China combined for now. So Pakistani Islamist Extremism is here to stay and grow large in direct proportion to the Indian ultranationalism and hegemonic designs for the region, especially in the US partnership.

Having said that, Indo-US partnership won't ever be able to achieve its ultimate objective which is to break Pakistan since both partners know it means 'nuclear catastrophe'. China is also standing firmly behind Pakistan in that area, by calling Pakistan its strategic partner just as Israel is to the USA.



Although, peace is the only logical way forward, but as and where we stand now, peace doesn't sell and suit Indo-US designs, while war is still selling like hot cake in Modi's India alongside Trump's America.
        

            

Wednesday, 4 October 2017

China-Pakistan-Russia Military Alliance-Strategic Realignment of Pakistan-II


The USA in another bet on it's Indian pet bulldog to check the flight of the Chinese dragon has declared the Chinese OBOR project passing through disputed territories. To be specific, the Indo-US move is directed at the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Keeping the historic debate aside, the US proclamations and it's loud mouthed propagation by the Indian 'mouthpiece' power, simply does not bother either China or Pakistan a bit. The CPEC project will continue without any hindrance, as Pakistan effectively controls the route since 1947 and the ground situation completely favours China.

India is desperately trying to stir trouble in Pakistan by funding an insurgency in Baluchistan, essentially using the Afghan soil and trying to exploit the political situation in Pakistan. However, what India and her sugar daddy in Washington fails to appreciates is, that the CPEC project, they are frantically opposing was in fact initiated well before they ever imagined.

If Pakistan was playing both sides in Afghanistan, the USA was doing the same with strategically aligning with the Pakistani arch rivals India. 

The Pakistanis appreciated more then a decade ago that the US will not be able to win its war in Afghanistan, due to the USA's lack of understanding about the region and its twisted tribal politics. At the same time, the Pakistanis knew, that as per precedent, the US will look for a scapegoat to blame her failures and the top choice will be obviously Pakistan itself. The Indian moves in Afghanistan and the Indo-US strategic deal including the civilian nuclear energy deal were omens enough for the Pakistanis for the times to come. If Pakistan was playing both sides in Afghanistan, the USA was doing the same with strategically aligning with the Pakistani arch rivals India.

Under these circumstances, while General Pervez Musharraf was ruling Pakistan, he dispatched his, senior most commander, General Ehsan ul Haq, to Beijing. He took the Pakistani strategic proposal to the Communist leadership of China having deep rooted socio-economic implications for the entire region.

 After due diligence, the Pakistani government and the Chinese leadership struck the strategic deal to counter the Indo-US alliance in the region, which is now known as CPEC. Pakistani security establishment gave the guarantee to see this strategic deal to its rightful end, against the Chinese commitment of ownership of the project irrespective of any change in government/regime in Pakistan.                 

The Pakistani security establishment was holding total power back in those days (around 2004) under General Pervez Musharraf. After due diligence, the Pakistani government and the Chinese leadership struck the strategic deal to counter the Indo-US alliance in the region, which is now known as CPEC. Pakistani security establishment gave the guarantee to see this strategic deal to its rightful end, against the Chinese commitment of ownership of the project irrespective of any change in government/regime in Pakistan. This is the essential reason as to why the Chinese determination and investments regards CPEC and commitment to the alliance with Pakistan remains unhindered irrespective of all odds as it may seem from time to time.

Russians Troops Being Welcomed In Pakistan For Joint Training Exercises


Subsequent to the ongoing mega economic developments regards Chinese OBOR projects which is spearheaded by the CPEC, Pakistan is now actively engaged in establishing its military alliance with Russia after China. The Pakistani security establishment quietly and successfully worked for around a decade to break the ice with Russia, which it helped defeat in the 'cold war' as an ally of the USA.

 The way USA abandoned Pakistan in post 'cold war' era to face the blow-back of that war where Pakistan was a front-line state, the Pakistanis always knew never to trust the USA, in particular siding against the Russians ever again. With the Indians influence wearing out in Moscow due to their strategic partnership with the US, Pakistan succeeded in making a substantial military alliance with the Russians. Pakistani security establishment successfully secured not only a formidable military alliance but found an alternative source of advanced weaponry in the shape of its fast developing military ties with Russia and rapidly deteriorating relationship with the USA(Pakistan's major weapon's supplier in the past).

Pakistani-Russian Special Forces Joint Training Being Conducted In Russia


Presently, vast numbers of Pakistani special forces, Aviation and Air force officers, besides other military personals from wide disciplines are stationed in Russia for joint training and liaison activities. It is definitely not a coincidence, but culmination of a well thought out plan in forming of this China-Pakistan-Russia(CPR) military alliance. This nuclear armed military trio has all the formidable elements to give stomach cramps to all its opponents. Together CPR military alliance compliments each other where one's deficiencies are filled by another and vice versa. They have it all, what it really takes, with the Chinese money, Russian military technology and the Pakistani counter-insurgency experience and geo-strategic location to provide access to the 'warm waters' to her allies in the region.

Top Military Brass of China-Pakistan-Russia Witnessing Joint Military Training Exercises At China In Recent Past


Sooner or later, the US will have to come to terms with the CPR strategic alliance and share the bounty in the mineral rich region, whether India likes it or not. Best way would be, for the USA and her allies to see sense and partner in sharing prosperity through peace in the region. However, history of mankind, and in particular that of the US being run by her greedy corporations tells us otherwise. The USA and her allies, may learn their lesson the hard way, that the central Asian region is a tough nut to crack, which may well break their teeth, if they continue to bite hard. EU states in particular the UK, would be better off to engage the CPR alliance through already well established trade channels to best serve respective national interests. In the context of Euro-Asian trade and security it is only a logical recommendation, since Turkey is already almost aligned with the CPR alliance. As for the Indo-US alliance and its friction with the CPR alliance, it would continue, while the US will increasingly try to use India to do her dirty laundry in the region. Having said all that, when it comes to the ground realities, the Indo-US alliance simply lacks the capacity to sustain the opposition towards the CPR alliance in the long term.

Winners in this game will be determined, by the  capacity of players who have the abilities to understand the complex dynamics of the CPR alliance and align with it by embedding within all these three countries using peaceful but sound business strategies.    

                              

Wednesday, 23 August 2017

Strategic Realignment of Pakistan-Global Impacts



Donald's Trumps latest rhetoric against Pakistan, harboring terrorist and all in his Afghanistan policy speech does not come out as a surprise for anyone at all and is nothing new. America is fast loosing the war in Afghanistan and its an open secret around the world. US government won't ever admit it, hence the favourite scapegoat to put the blame of the shameful defeat is their major non-NATO ally, Pakistan.

USA invaded Afghanistan as a direct consequence of the 9/11 attacks. The aftermath of that tragic incident was manipulated by those who had an advance warning of this calamity. Without doubt, the strongest lobbyist in Washington, that is Israel(AIPAC) knew and carefully planned to globally benefit from the tragic events of 9/11  ( https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/rise-of-zionist-empire-how-israel.html ).

The US government in post 9/11 scenario, was heavily lobbied by the Indians with Israelis in their direct support to put India as a regional counterweight to the inevitable rise of the 'Red Empire' in Asia. It was only natural for the USA to go to bed with India and try putting a barrier to the rising influence of China in her home region. India, aspires to become a regional power but can't take on China at one side and Pakistan on the other, which are both strongly allied nuclear armed states like her.

While USA is facing defeat in Afghanistan, it is her desire to 'outsource' the region to their puppets, with India in the driving seat of their bandwagon. There is but, few major problems faced by the US government in implementing their policies.

Firstly, Pakistan being immediate neighbour of Afghanistan, foresaw the US defeat based on their established old habit of abandoning the mess they create after meeting the immediate, shortsighted goals. Looks like they never learnt anything from their Brit cousins. So, the Pakistanis took safety measures especially after experiencing the US betrayal first hand in the aftermath of winning the 'Cold War'. The US created and Armed the Mujaheddin in association with Pakistan only to dump them on the later, once they thought, they were of no good use anymore. Pakistan, didn't have that luxury, being located in that region, so, kept their ties with the Frankenstein's monster created by the USA and kept trying to tame it. It definitely doesn't mean that the monster did not haunted Pakistan. Pakistan paid the price and continues to do so, through the blood of thousands of her soldiers and civilians on daily basis. It's a price though, Pakistanis knew they would have to pay for the choices they made. Pakistanis always knew what they were getting into, by taking upon India on Afghan soil which is backed by the USA. The Indians, from the Afghan soil funded the 'international ideological mercenaries a.k.a Pakistani Taliban', who are the rogue third generation mercenaries of 'Afghan Jihad', targeting Pakistan, to give them a taste of their own medicine they had used in Kashmir against the Indian occupation of the region (https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/afghanistan-pakistan-standoffindian.html). The Indian national security adviser publicly announced and acknowledged this policy while speaking to university students in India (https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/ajit-doval-devils-advocate.html). As a result, Pakistan choose to take upon India in Afghanistan being directly supported there by the US, in a fight for her survival. This also dictated Pakistan to strategically realign it's priorities and prepare for softly divorcing the US led western alliance and join the Sino-Russian camp.

 USA is no more the sole superpower of the world, or possess the power it once had before 9/11. The 'Oil Wars' in the middle east based on 'WMD lies' have weakened the American might drastically

The other major problem with the US policy in Afghanistan is, that the place is the very backyard of China and Russia.  USA simply can not continue to play there and keep bullying the entire region, without expecting retaliation from these regional powers. USA is no more the sole superpower of the world, or possess the power it once had before 9/11. The 'Oil Wars' in the middle east based on 'WMD lies' have weakened the American might drastically. America acquired their sole superpower status after winning the 'Cold War', defeating the USSR in Afghanistan through her proxies, 'Mujaheddin' now known as the 'Afghan Taliban'. That American victory chartered by the 'Mujaheddin' in Afghanistan led to the breaking of the USSR.

Only two decades later not only the same proxy, which won the USA led western capitalist alliance their war against the USSR led communist bloc, is the US/NATO chief enemy in Afghanistan, but, the old socialist enemy of the USA is also back to haunt the western world in the new capitalist attire. Russian bear is all inclined to take back its lost territories and influence, almost after four decades of suffering the humiliating defeat by the USA.

 Chinese investments in Afghanistan have bought them an unprecedented influence in the country. Russia is all on board with China in Afghanistan and both these regional powers are in negotiations with the Taliban, due to kind the courtesy of Pakistani connections with the 'Afghan Taliban', which the Americans are so very critical of.

Pakistani Army played its due role as a US major non NATO ally cooperating with the US and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) on ground in Afghanistan. Pakistan also provided key logistical support to the US forces/ISAF in Afghanistan. However, the Pakistani intelligence, skillfully retained but avoided using their influence over the 'Afghan Taliban', while the US wanted to negotiate a deal with them by bullying Pakistan to strong arm the 'Afghan Taliban' into such a deal. Although such a deal would have given the US, some kind of 'face saving exit', from Afghanistan, which was/is in the interest of Pakistan, but  the Pakistani intelligence outfits backed off from brokering any such deal, only after confirming that, such a US deal with the 'Afghan Taliban' would be made by compromising the Pakistani strategic interests superseded by those of India.

  The 'Indo-US' strategic regional alliance plans to counter China's rise in the region and neutralize her influence in Afghanistan and beyond. This also directly jeopardizes the Russian influence in the mineral rich countries of 'Central Asia' with the US eyes affixed on their natural resources. India is hated by Pakistan due to historic reasons, with three wars under the belts of both these countries. There is hence, a natural alignment of strategic interests between, China, Pakistan and Russia. That is where it hurts the US most, to loose Pakistan which is geographically located in a position to make or break both Afghanistan and whomsoever controls Kabul.

It is no coincidence that the Pakistani Armed Forces officers are increasingly being seen in Moscow and visiting Russia regularly while China is like a second home to them now. Russia is providing modern military hardware to Pakistan irrespective of the Indian objections, which is the biggest weapons exporter from Russia, but not for too long. Russia reckons that after the 'Indo-US' strategic alliance, it's only a matter of time that the Indians would be forced to shop their military hardware from the US/West. The 'Indo-US' nuclear and military deals are an omen in that direction, Russia never failed to notice.

Old friends are now foes and vice versa in the interesting times we now live in.  

China-Pakistan-Russia alliance backs the Taliban principle demand, that before any formal negotiations with the Kabul regime, the 'foreign invaders', must leave their soil. Such a move will level the playing fields of Afghanistan and the US allies would loose influence in the region. USA simply can not afford such a scenario, so 'Pentagon' forced President Trump, embattled in a political carnage due to his naive choices, to increase the troops in Afghanistan. He went back on his words and was made to swallow his spit, just like Obama, when he was forced to increase troop numbers in Afghanistan by his Generals in the longest ever war faced by the USA. The difference between Obama and Trump is that Obama did it as a political move, while Trump has been strong armed by his defense establishment to do so.

Pakistan is by far the most viable way to keep the said 'logistical lifeline' alive for the US troops in Afghanistan. The US government, may it be Trump administration or the brass at Pentagon must be careful not to antagonize Pakistan, beyond reproach

The bullying by Trump won't change a thing in Pakistan and her attitude towards Afghanistan. Pakistan knows that it controls the vital logistic support corridors of the US forces in Afghanistan. The other option, which is a much more difficult way and extremely expensive passage, is controlled by Russia. The only other passage, neither developed nor utilized to the land locked country, to provide 'logistical lifeline' to the US military in Afghanistan passes through Iran. Pakistan is by far the most viable way to keep the said 'logistical lifeline' alive for the US troops in Afghanistan. The US government, may it be Trump administration or the brass at Pentagon must be careful not to antagonize Pakistan, beyond reproach.  China is fully backing Pakistan both morally and materially with 50 billion dollar investments in Pakistani infrastructure. The Saudis have pledged their oil and money to the only nuclear armed Islamic country, whose military has pledged to defend their kingdom in the face of an existential threat.

Pakistan is a nuclear armed state and the USA simply does not possess the potential to disarm the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, no matter how much it threatens, shrieks or boasts about doing so. Pakistan visibly, has the capacity and capability to choose its foreign policy

Aforesaid considering, Pakistan silently but surely, over a course of one and a half decade, strategically re-aligned itself away from the USA keeping in view her own supreme national interests. While Pakistan may never completely divorce the US and NATO, the core Pakistani geopolitical and strategic interests are now aligned with those of China and Russia. Pakistan is a nuclear armed state and the USA simply does not possess the potential to disarm the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, no matter how much it threatens, shrieks or boasts about doing so. Pakistan visibly, has the capacity and capability to choose its foreign policy. The financial support accorded to Pakistan by her allies in addition to vast mineral wealth at her disposal coupled with the Geo-strategical location in the globe only adds to the Pakistani strengths.

India will have to make a choice, as to either peacefully co-exist with her neighbours or face a nuclear Armageddon. India won't be allowed to enforce the US centric agenda in the region it is housed, on the behest of her newly found lover sitting safely across seven seas playing her to do its dirty laundry. Peace is the only logical way forward for all stake holders in the Asia Pacific, for this entire region to realize and exploit its economic potential and bring billions of mankind out of poverty. The US and its allies will have to sooner than later realize, that the fires they are fuming in Asia will find its way to their homeland like before. USA will have to stop acting audaciously around the globe as if, it is the sole superpower of the world, which it is not.

As for the vastly unemployed, unskilled population and crumbling economy of America, Trump and his American hawks, now needs to find some way, other than the recruitment and loan-funding of the military-industrial complex which, is waging mindless wars around the world, only benefiting those few at the top of the food chain in the western world. It is however, not possible until and unless US public finds a way around the highly corrupt and manipulated political system governing them being continuously exploited by the vested interests through controlling the US politician's funding by lobbyists like the AIPAC.

Pakistan will continue to exercise its foreign policy independently, irrespective of the US bullying. The Pakistani global diaspora is a force beside its nuclear armed military to deter any misadventure by either the US or India. The US puppet government in Kabul will have to come to terms with the Pakistani position instead of playing as the Indian lackeys and support the funding of the insurgency in tribal areas of Pakistan from the Afghan soil. For Pakistanis will avenge and call upon its debts after the 'foreign invaders' will leave Afghanistan. In any case, the American puppets in Kabul will run away to the western world, sooner or later after finishing their loot of western world's aid money like Karzai and Co did so. Pakistan on the other hand is here to stay and retain the influence in Afghanistan, in partnership with China and Russia, hopefully bringing much awaited relief for that war torn country in the shape of peace and prosperity.                                                   

Friday, 7 July 2017

Rise of The Zionist Empire-How Israel Changed The World Post 9/11



A vast amount of material is available in public domain, both supporting and negating the theories, that Israel's intelligence agency Mossad knew about the 9/11 attacks in advance, and they utilized these attacks in favour of Israel's Zionist Jew's designs in the world.

Keeping aside conspiracy theories, following facts are verified :-

> Israeli intelligence agency 'Mossad', knew that a large scale terrorist attack is imminent on the US soil. To this effect they issued a vague warning to their US counterparts in August 2001 without any specific information about the attacks.
(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/1340698/Israeli-security-issued-urgent-warning-to-CIA-of-large-scale-terror-attacks.html)

>Israeli nationals were caught capturing the video footage of the 9/11 attacks in a visibly jubilant mood. They were later deported to Israel, even after being found involved in illegal activities on the US soil while they were working for the Israeli intelligence agency.
(   http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=123885&page=1)

>In months preceding 9/11 attacks, western financial markets, dominated by the Zionist Jews and Arab oligarchy saw an unprecedented amount of 'insider trading' directly related to the aftermath of 9/11 attacks on the financial markets. 
(  http://www.cbsnews.com/news/profiting-from-disaster/  -  http://911research.wtc7.net/cache/sept11/londontimes_insidertrading.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/europe/09/24/gen.europe.shortselling/index.html)

Above three facts are not enumerated to claim that Israel collaborated in the 9/11 attacks, but to prove that Israeli intelligence beside certain other vested interests, surely knew about the 9/11 attacks beforehand. This knowledge was used for respective gains by these parties. However, Israel, benefited the most out of this fiasco.

Israel, systematically used the 9/11 attacks to turn the tide of global public opinion in its favour. Israel, armed with its Zionists partners running the global mainstream media of the developed world presented the world with a 'new narrative' about the Muslims and Islam. Slowly but surely, the global perception about the Muslims being terrorists and Islam being a radical religion took hold. This allowed Israel to manipulate the global opinion about her autocratic apartheid of the Palestinian people. At the same time, this 'new narrative' was carefully chartered by the Zionist Jews through the vast resources at their disposal to spread the influence of Israel globally.

The Israeli state and their Zionist patterns deserves acclamation, to have consistently and patiently manipulated post 9/11 world order in a methodical manner. They were able to do this in a plan seemingly spread over at least two decades. Let us enumerate the successes of the Zionist state of Israel, made possible, chiefly by the radical Islamist ideological mercenaries working in their favour.

> The global opinion about Muslims and Islam have been tarnished, with Islamophobia being the order of the day globally. Hence, Israel can easily tell the world, that all Muslims, including Palestinians are not some freedom fighters, but a bunch of radical lunatics, out their to destroy the peace loving Israeli state. Hilarious to those who know the facts, but its working on the dominant majority of the world.

> The post 9/11 US invasion of Iraq based on falsely fabricated pretexts destroyed the entire Middle East region's balance of power. The result is a the disaster in the region effecting the entire world to date. The US public pressure forced the attack in response to 9/11, which allowed various non-state actors like ISIS and Al-Qaeda to find physical ungoverned territories to prosper. This further plunged the entire region into chaos. All the more reason for Israel to spread her physical influence in the region on the pretext of securing itself.  

> The Middle East has collapsed into various militant sectarian conflicts, diminishing the power of the Arab countries who were chief financiers of the Palestinian cause. Iran being a major Israeli enemy is also deeply entangled in this conflict having little to no time, opposing Israel.

> While the Middle Eastern states are busy in their wars of influence post 9/11, championed by Saudi Arabia and Iran respectively. Israel is fast at work spreading her own influence in the region and beyond.    

> Israel in an unprecedented move have secretly allied with the Wahhabi Kingdom of Saudi Arabia against their common enemy Iran. That nullifies the predominant Arab financial and physical support for the Palestinian cause to a large extent at present and in times to come. Classically killing two birds with one stone, with the Arabs on their side, Israel remains invincible for Iran.

> While the major Israeli regional opponents are entangled in a web of chaos looking inwards, Israel is fast filling the power vacuum around the world left vacant by the Arab countries. From India to Africa, Israel is fast spreading its physical influence gaining major economic and strategic benefits, making her more powerful and seemingly invincible.


In this world we now live, 'perceptions are much more important than reality'. The Zionists foresaw it all, and capitalized on the insecurities of the global population post 9/11, creating a perception which best suited their cause. The cause may be legitimate from the Israeli perspective, for the Jews do not want to and should not suffer another holocaust. However, the oppressed are now surely the oppressors...   
      

Sunday, 11 December 2016

Why and Where to Invest in Pakistan-CPEC


The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) is the top performing market of Asia Pacific at the moment. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has created a euphoria in the international investors to get their piece of the pie, and the result is quite visible in the unprecedented bullish trends of Pakistani stock market. However the real pie, lies not in the bonds and stocks, but buying the stakes directly in the CPEC by investing in relevant real estate and industrial projects, which will make the CPEC as successful as envisaged by the Chinese and Pakistani leadership.

The real estate sector on the CPEC with its various multipurpose economic zones, provides an opportunity to small and medium investors and entrepreneurs to make humongous returns on their investments in the short term. The corporate and large investment groups are already in the game, looking to buy real estate on or near the CPEC, preferably in Pakistan and want to establish industrial plans, oil refineries and power projects.

My article aims at advising the entrepreneurs and medium level investment groups to invest in the CPEC related real estate, which will provide tremendous opportunities in the short term. Real estate is the primary prerequisite for any project and buying land where it matters is a universal fact.

CPEC's primary objective is to utilise the Pakistani port of Gawader to export oil from the energy rich Middle East to the energy hungry China. Oil refineries in Pakistan are in business, but at the same time they are not as they do not have the capacity to meet demands greater than the Pakistani domestic market. Therefore the Chinese and other international investors are rushing in to make new oil refineries in Pakistan with billions of dollars in investment. The government of Pakistan have hence earmarked multipurpose economic zones which are cleared to create such oil refineries and associated industries and residential complexes, housing the manpower of these huge industries. These multipurpose economic zones are looking to develop new high tech industrial cities, which promote commerce and trade on the CPEC.

The entrepreneurs willing to invest in these multipurpose economic zone's real estate and that of the routes leading to these zones and connecting them with the existing major lines of communication will be betting on a winning horse.

However buying land in and securing your acquisitions in Pakistan is a tricky business, which must be handled by professional land acquisition consultants. If a consultation is required regarding such an investment,  please contact me on my email address:  adilrajah18@gmail.com



          

Tuesday, 22 November 2016

Ignored Pakistani Interests in CPEC(China Pakistan Economic Corridor)

While China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is well underway fast becoming a reality, certain Pakistani interests in this scenario are being ignored, not only by the Chinese government, but also by the Pakistani state.



It is now a taboo in Pakistan to criticise CPEC while any act as such may be marked as treasonous by the ultra nationalists. However, we need to realise the impact of treating CPEC and its related projects as the divine verses/orders. CPEC is not any holy grail, but after all a business venture, which must address the concerns of common Pakistanis and secure their interests.

China may be treating Pakistan with complete sincerity, but is investing in Pakistan only through state run organisations and mega business enterprises. This is creating a monopoly which will restrict the benefits of CPEC to that monopoly alone. It is understood that China is doing only what suits her interests best and being a communist socialist republic finds itself comfortable dealing with state run institutions and mega businesses having the blessings of the state. However, this situation does not suit the aspirations and interests of the common Pakistanis who are willing and able to raise their voices in order to secure their interests in a democratic republic ruled by a mostly corrupt regime.

China may have secured the Chinese interests in partnership with the Pakistani state institutions for now. But in the longer run, if they continue to ignore the interests of the common people in Pakistan , they are looking at a Pak-US like scenario, where they would be paying/investing money in Pakistan, but the disenfranchised masses at Pakistan would work to sabotage the CPEC and related infrastructure to redress their grievances.

China must understand, that the security establishment of Pakistan which is currently fully on board with them regards CPEC ultimately works to full-fill the national aspirations of Pakistani citizens. If the common Pakistani people feel disenfranchised by the CPEC, which benefits the largely corrupt monopoly created by China, these same people will aspire for the opposite of their present enthusiasm regarding the CPEC.

The dominating Pakistani interests being ignored regards CPEC are :-

  • Chinese emphasis on working with Punjabi strongmen like Shahbaz Sharif ignoring the leaders of smaller provinces.
  • Chinese emphasis on conducting business with only state run/mega business enterprises ignoring the small and medium business owners/entrepreneurs.
  • Chinese and Pakistani government's failure to address the environmental impact and carbon imprints of CPEC/related projects like the coal based power plants being made in Pakistan by China.
  • Chinese emphasis on primarily investing in Punjab working with the Punjab dominated Pakistani federal government ignoring the smaller provinces. Projects like "Orange Train" at Lahore under the banner of CPEC is uncalled for.
  • Chinese and Pakistani government's lack of interest in establishing a 'limited visa free transit' for each other's nationals which is only restricted to the government officials for now.
CPEC and its related projects can only be sustainable and profitable for both China and Pakistan if the above stated interests of the common people of Pakistan are secured and ensured in the long run.

People to people, not only government to government exchanges is the key to move forward by both countries in order to understand the aspirations and interests of each other.

'People' and their 'prosperity' are two major pillars for the masses of both China and Pakistan to make CPEC and One Belt One Road(OBOR) project a resounding success for the long term. And as the Chinese would wisely say, "if you want one year of prosperity, grow grain. If you want ten years of prosperity, grow trees. If you want one hundred year of prosperity, grow people". 
At Pakistan, we wish to grow it all including grain, trees and people alongside our Chinese friends. Only that will suffice to make the hype created by CPEC become a reality for the masses.

I would like to conclude by quoting a Chinese proverb:-
                                      "To open a shop is easy, to keep it open is an art"       




                

Sunday, 13 November 2016

How Did Donald Trump Win?



Donald Trump won the US Presidential elections essentially due to his campaign managers and his "homework" rather than "hard work". He concentrated on manipulating and capitalising on the electoral system rather winning popular votes which he couldn't. Donald Trump's winning strategy was based on two basic pillars. First was to voice popular sentiments in the US in plain and blunt language, while the second pillar was to exploit the US fault-lines which included her foreign policy which is mostly hypocritical in nature.



Donald Trump beat the phenomenal lobbying against his candidacy by offering an alternative to the status quo to the American people.  Hillary failed to do the same irrespective of her glamorous campaign supported by all the right quarters which makes any candidacy a winning bet. The impoverished white America in particular wanted to believe anything that would mean a change, even a lie, to go back to relive the American dream somehow. Trump made them that promise, which he may well not be able to keep, but he made it anyway. Donald Trump told the working class Americans,  in particular those living in the states with most electoral votes, that he will "make America great again". He repeated himself enough to make them all believe in his rhetoric.

While the American left only laughed and ridiculed Donald Trump, his campaign and the supporters he had; they only alienated the masses further toward the rite. The average Joe in America, which makes a sizeable dominant majority, simply wanted to listen to what Donald Trump had to say. They were awed by the chest thumping and promises of remaking the American dream with foul mouthed boasting against any opposition to Donald Trump, for he spoke the language they all understood perfectly well.

in contrast, Hillary represented the status quo which offered no radical promises, keeping in view the ground facts which were known to her, she just laughed at the gimmicks of Donald Trump, not taking him seriously. Those very gimmicks won Trump the election and left Hillary flabbergasted. Trump knew his audience well and spoke their language working on their insecurities, concentrating on the states with most electoral votes he knew that would swing in his favour.

While all political pundits around the world predicted Hillary to win the US Presidential elections, she only proved them right to the extent of winning the popular vote. Donald Trump on the other hand check mated all his opposition by working on winning the electoral seats/votes. He was able to do so, with the racist bias in his campaign by the white population in America, who were pushed in to a corner by the cultured yet naive democrats.

The price of the democrat's choice of making Hillary as their candidate and trying to brush all the legitimate concerns of republican vote bank under the carpet would be paid by a reality TV star acting out his role in the white house for next four, who knows eight years. Donald Trump would surely oversee the demise of the USA's era as the sole superpower of the world. More importantly, whether he's able to deliver upon his promises or not, would decide the state of the union of the USA.                 

Monday, 31 October 2016

How China is Reshaping the World-South Asia in Particular


With China possessing wads of surplus cash to spare, after years of super fast economic growth, the Chinese designs of rising as a superpower essentially revolves around, creating hegemony through economic integration and investments. The trillions of dollars of investment in  the Chinese "One Belt One Road(OBOR)" initiative by China is a step towards the same direction.

China is quietly working on buying wide ranging influence by creating an economic hegemony around the globe which already includes investments in the USA, Latin America, Europe, Asia and resource rich Africa. With the future of global economy resting in Asia Pacific region, China is currently focusing her economic ingress into the Asian Pacific region.

The OBOR initiative thus revolves around two basic endeavours by the Chinese planners. Firstly the OBOR aims at integrating the Asian Pacific and Euro-Asian economies by linking it with Chinese mainland through direct road and rail links spreading the Chinese economic hegemony in these regions. Secondly and most importantly OBOR will provide an alternative to China to sea trade routes dominated by the mighty US Navy giving the last punch to knock out US global prowess.

The host countries involved in the Chinese designs with the exception of very few are welcoming the overall impact of the Chinese plans. Opposed to the US model of global hegemony based on military might, wars and unnecessary bloodshed, they see the Chinese model of hegemony through economic integration as highly beneficial for this model creates jobs and progress in their countries.

China is working to resolve regional disputes through dialogues and investments where possible to create favourable conditions for their economic hegemony like recently noticed in the case of the Philippines breaking traditional ties with the USA to join the Chinese camp. On other instances Chinese strategy is based on military and proxy confrontation, like in the case of USA and Japan, where these country's populations are unwilling to comprehend the ground reality that the USA is no-more the sole super power of the world and the uni-polar world order is dead. Chinese military build up in South China sea and the refusal of North Korea to give away its nuclear arsenal is a point in this case displaying the underlying Chinese designs.

The US led western strategy is essentially based on creating India as a counterweight to the rise of the Chinese Empire. However, India is in no position to oblige the US desires irrespective of a deep rooted desire to do so. India is an impoverished country which simply does not possess the muscle to either economically match the Chinese monetary prowess or militarily fight a two front war with China at one side and her staunchest ally Pakistan on the other side. While Pakistan desires to confront India with the Chinese help in the backdrop of a traditional arch rivalry, Chinese interests yet again dictate the requirements of economic integration for the region, with both India and Pakistan being her neighbouring countries.

China is thus quietly, but surely working to resolve differences with India which would indirectly encourage Pakistan to follow suit. China simply cannot afford to let three countries including them-self having potent nuclear arsenals jump to the guns, destroying the regional economy on whose integration the very rise of China as a global superpower depends upon. That's why China is secretly but forcefully wooing India to join the Chinese OBOR initiative. India is so far not only resisting to join the OBOR but working to sabotage the pivotal artery of the mega project, which is "China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)". Irrespective of all this and Pakistani security establishment's apprehensions, China is working with Pakistani politicians in toe to create an environment for peaceful resolution of disputes in the region.

 China is enticing India to join OBOR, but India is increasingly apprehensive of her rising hegemony, in particular being boasted to confront China by the US/West. However, the USA will sooner than later have to start looking inwards and focus on her domestic failing infrastructure and related domestic economic issues, which will provide China with the much needed space to move in the Indian markets. India would be forced to join the OBOR by the free market economy it depends upon to survive. Chinese investments of trillions of dollars in their economies will force UK/EU to allow the Chinese domination as such while it is needless to say that Russia and rest of Chinese allies, in particular the BRICS economic alliance of which India is a part of, would side along with the Chinese interests.

Such a scenario will promote peace, prosperity and democracy in the region, which will ultimately work towards the benefit of respective populations. It would be a win all situation for everyone less the US designs and delusional Hindu ultra nationalists, but you can/t keep everyone happy but only try to do so.      



               

Thursday, 13 October 2016

Donald Or Hillary? Who Would Israel Support?

Image result for us presidential election


American system of Presidential elections is more like Presidential selection by those who control money in the donation based US political system. It is mostly, like this, in the modern system of western democracy, less those few democracies, with comparatively smaller, but aware and educated population. Donor Money and allegiances plays the most crucial pivotal part in turning the undecided vote bank. We are talking about big money and resources controlled by groups of people with vested interests. American political system is anything but fair like most of its matching counterparts around the world. The two party system in America was only challenged once in modern history by Ross Perot, who was timely neutralized by the managers of American political system, which works on the whims of the Lobbyists.

 The biggest lobbyist firm among them all is called the AIPAC ( American Israel Public Affairs Committee ). AIPAC by virtue of its control over the recommendations they give to Jews political donors who have the biggest bucks effectively manipulates the American political and governance mechanisms towards the Israeli/Zionists objectives. There are other interest groups involved in the lobbying sector from respective vested interests, but no one beats the AIPAC.

 "Any US President has to sign more than Ten Million US Dollars in Military aid to Israel  Daily. The stakes for AIPAC and Israeli lobby it leads are very high. AIPAC would never allow things get out of their hands and slip into those of the American public". 

It is highly convenient to manage only two candidates by the AIPAC. Which ever pledges loyalty with the Israeli cause to AIPAC is recommended to the wealthy Jews donor lobby for support. The support of AIPAC for the Presidential race almost means victory for the candidate being supported. AIPAC rarely recommends or reject any presidential candidate openly, but keeps its business under heavy shrouds of secrecy. However, one may easily read in between the lines to know who is the AIPAC blued eyed candidate. The amount of air time dedicated to any candidate in mainstream US/Western media gives away the choice of AIPAC. Hillary Clinton in this case is leading Donald Trump. Hillary is the unanimous darling of mainstream media.

So what's wrong with Trump. Almost everything you will note, but he is willing to pledge to AIPAC for the Israeli cause, why not, him then? Its because of his irrational and temperamental personality I suppose. You can't really trust Trump with his words as he has proved repeatedly. It seems he's playing his part in the biggest reality show on the globe. Even the Republicans themselves are not supporting Donald Trump unanimously. On the other hand, in Hillary Clinton AIPAC and the Israeli Lobby finds comfort of conformity. Hillary will ensure status quo, and that's what AIPAC and the Israeli lobby desires. Any US President has to sign more than Ten Million US Dollars in Military aid to Israel  Daily. The stakes for AIPAC and Israeli lobby it leads are very high. AIPAC would never allow things get out of their hands and slip into those of the American public.

As for American public, Hillary brings in experience of how the system works and the same may allow her to manipulate it for her financial supporters. Trump on the other hand is a wild card, who knows how to play with the fears of the naive American population.

Whoever wins the US Presidency, would have to face the immediate challenges of failing US domestic infrastructure in a world, where USA is fast losing the sole superpower status.

 
          

Thursday, 29 September 2016

Indian Surgical Strikes In Pakistan- Disinformation for Face Saving



The global reaction spearheaded by Pakistan in response to the killing of the Kashmiri freedom fighter figurehead, Burhan Wani, was unprecedented. It swept the Indian establishment off their very feet in terms of condemnation and negative publicity. The response by the Indian security forces was brutal. The security forces in Indian administered Kashmir violently reacted towards the protesting population with the use of blunt force to subdue these protests. They succeeded in killing hundreds and critically injuring thousands of Kashmiris. This has internationally exposed the Indian apartheid in Kashmir like never before.


"The United Nations human rights body (UNHRC) took notice of the recent spate of the Indian brutalities in Kashmir and demanded an inquiry, which was dismissed and opposed by the Indian government, by denying access to the UNHRC."



The United Nations human rights body (UNHRC) took notice of the recent spate of the Indian brutalities in Kashmir and demanded an inquiry, which was dismissed and opposed by the Indian government, by denying access to the UNHRC. This is the same global human rights body that has been welcomed by Pakistan on the same demand towards the Pakistani side of Kashmir. Indians have not only committed heinous crimes against humanity in Kashmir in recent times, but also have numerous skeletons in their cupboard, that they are desperate to hide in the confines of the beautiful valley, which is why they have reason to avoid such inspection.

"The delusional Hindu nationalist mindset groomed by the mainstream Indian media, prefers to remain oblivious to the inhumane behaviour of the Indian security forces in Kashmir, as the state policy of India."

The delusional Hindu nationalist mindset groomed by the mainstream Indian media, prefers to remain oblivious to the inhumane behaviour of the Indian security forces in Kashmir, as the state policy of India. Indian nationals live in one of the greatest hypocritical societies ever created. Proof of this is the silencing of the voices of the Kashmiri people, bravely raised at the cost of their blood with their screams drowned using the mouthpiece power, (chartered by the Indian corporate media) that exists due to the sheer number of nationalist mindset people, the same mindset which is currently in power in India.

The situation was already frustrating for the Indian government, after the calls by Modi, the Indian premier, openly supporting separatist movements in Pakistan. It was a bid to divert focus from the Kashmir dispute, which failed. This move was made by Modi to stir unrest in Baluchistan, (where India is already waging a clandestine war) The response in Baluchistan and across Pakistan was humiliating for India and Modi in particular, but it met its certain death in the shape of a sharp rebuttal from India's ally at present, the USA. In contrast, the evidence of Indian involvement in subversive activities in Baluchistan has been proven time and time again with the latest proof of this being the capture of an Indian spymaster, Kulbushan Yadav; a serving Indian naval officer on deputation to Indian intelligence agency, RAW. Kulbushan Yadav has admitted that India supports militancy in Baluchistan and FATA, by hiring Taliban mercenaries from Afghanistan to wreck havoc within Pakistan, he also admitted to supplying arms to the militants. It seems that these consistent efforts by India to destabilize Pakistan is causing paranoia within the Indian government, so much so that India is adamant that the Kashmiri cause must also still being supported militarily by Pakistan.

The recent situation in Indian administered Kashmir and the widespread international condemnation of Indian state atrocities, has undressed India in front of the international community. They now stand naked due to Pakistan's successful diplomatic efforts, in particular at the UN general assembly. Pakistan exposed the Indian apartheid in Kashmir, creating desperate times for the Modi government in India.

With India's failure to divert international focus from their atrocious rule in Kashmir, a situation was "created" after which Pakistan was blamed for an attack on a heavily fortified Indian military base in Uri in Indian administered Kashmir. Indian media chartered war mongering and successfully diverted the global attention from Kashmir, towards a possible nuclear war in South Asia. The Indian media did everything in it's power in an irresponsible manner, to create war hysteria and to globally marginalize the exposure of Indian brutalities in Kashmir, suppressing Pakistan's legitimate support for the Kashmir cause, but it all failed to subdue the defiant Pakistani stance on Kashmir.

The situation further got desperate for India when their so called policy of internationally isolating Pakistan and declaring her a terrorist state, drastically failed to impress any of the major powers in the world. Subsequently, the Modi government began blaming Pakistan for causing the problems in Kashmir. This was augmented with threats to cut Pakistani waters. The Indian government should realise that this is not possible under the current circumstances where India itself is a middle riparian state, with China being the upper riparian, having the ability to dry out the entire region artificially, through her seven hundred plus dams, already built on the flow of the rivers coming down to South Asia. The Chinese deep rooted bilateral relationship with Pakistan is no secret and puts India on a weaker foothold, again.

Failing to break Pakistani resolve, the Modi government came under sharp domestic criticism from the delusional Hindu nationalist mindset, which for some reason believe in the Hindu supremacy of South Asia. The government of India was fast losing international prestige for their country, with clear indications from global and regional powers that they are siding with Pakistan in the war mongering self righteous attitude of the Indian government

"A surgical strike involves infiltration of the hostile space to carry out operations behind enemy lines. However the reality of the efforts made by the Indian army was that this was a highly anticipated fire raid (border skirmishes) at the LOC after the threats made by the Indian government "that they will respond to the Uri attacks"



In their efforts to appease domestic cries for revenge after the Uri attack, the Modi government came out with the equally desperate gimmick of "surgical strikes" in Pakistan targeting imaginary terrorist hideouts. A surgical strike involves infiltration of the hostile space to carry out operations behind enemy lines. However the reality of the efforts made by the Indian army was that this was a highly anticipated fire raid (border skirmishes) at the LOC, after the threats made by the Indian government "that they will respond to the Uri attacks" However these details don't bother the Indian media. The words of the English speaking majority in India who are shouting at the top of their voices is having more affect in the media than the less versed in English counterparts in Pakistan who despite having a more legitimate argument are overpowered by the quantity not quality of the English speaking Indians.

"Sources confirmed that the Indian Army is unable to evacuate their fallen soldiers for the fear of being in the direct line of fire of the Pakistani guns."

The Pakistanis responded with full force to the Indian advances at the LOC and reportedly forced the Indians to retreat while leaving behind their dead and injured. These dead and injured Indian soldiers are reportedly still lying on the de-facto border even after twenty four hours of the forced cessation of the Indian hostilities. Sources confirmed that the Indian Army is unable to evacuate their fallen soldiers for the fear of being in the direct line of fire of the Pakistani guns. To put salt on their wounds, the Pakistani Army has captured an Indian soldier alive, who was involved in these border skirmishes.

"The Indian government desperately needed to stage this drama after months of empty threats towards Pakistan, to pacify their delusional vote bank in India."

These hostilities at the line of control and their subsequent referral to them as (fabricated) surgical strikes, are being feverishly celebrated by the Indian media. While the world laughs at this delusional Indian perspective, Pakistan is only flabbergasted at the sheer naivety of the general Indian population, being taken for a ride of deceit by their establishment. The Indian government desperately needed to stage this drama after months of empty threats towards Pakistan, to pacify their delusional vote bank in India.

Indians may have achieved the short term objective, of diverting international focus from its naked and brutal aggression in Kashmir, however, the blood of the innocent Kashmiris, shed ruthlessly by the Indian apartheid won't be allowed to go to waste by Pakistan. Pakistan won't be impressed or forced into submission by India, as it's itself a globally acknowledged military power with a robust nuclear arsenal. India with its delusional Hindu nationalist mindset, trying to wage war, only faces a MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) scenario for the entire region. India irrespective of possessing an economy that is seven times larger than Pakistan and a military that is three times larger than neighbouring Pakistan, is, and will remain, unable to bully Pakistan into submission in her quest for regional hegemony. Pakistan will stand with the Kashmiri people until a peaceful settlement of the Kashmir conflict is reached through negotiations involving all the antagonists in the dispute.

 "Peace is the only logical way forward, but the politicians in both India and Pakistan refuse to envision this for their own selfish desires for power."
This cycle of hate and violence will continue to go on, as any country would respond to outright hostility (As opposed to baseless accusations) from an aggressor with equal force. Pakistan will also respond after the violation of the ceasefire on the line of control, made by India. Peace is the only logical way forward, but the politicians in both India and Pakistan refuse to envision this, for their own selfish desires for power. Until then, the populations of both countries need to be prepared for hostile relations of all descriptions with their neighbours. The people are the ones that are truly affected by the shortsighted and senseless decisions of their governments, initiated on this occasion by India. 

Monday, 19 September 2016

Grey Areas of CPEC



The veil of secrecy surrounding CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) is both misty and mysterious. While the Chinese government traditionally holds all such state business matters behind closed doors, Pakistani government of Mr Nawaz Sharif is also fighting hard to keep wraps on the CPEC mega billion dollars project.

The Chinese businesses in collaboration with their Pakistani counterparts in CPEC related projects in particular where the majority of 46 billion USD financing is being utilized, that is the energy and power sector wants the details of these projects to be kept under the shrouds.         

 Most interestingly, the CPEC "turf wars" in Pakistan has taken a prominent turn when the political government of Mr Nawaz Sharif refused to share the CPEC project details in its entirety with the Pakistani military establishment which is the basic security stake holder of the project.

Chinese foreign investments where Chinese state finances are involved like in CPEC project are considered free from any competitive bidding process or any other scrutiny as a pre-requisite by the Chinese state bank. 

Against popular belief, China is also not interested in involving the Pakistani security establishment beyond the security paradigm of the project. The Chinese businesses in collaboration with their Pakistani counterparts in CPEC related projects in particular where the majority of 46 billion USD financing is being utilized, that is the energy and power sector wants the details of these projects to be kept under the shrouds.

China is putting in 46 billion USD in the CPEC as an investment upon which, China is looking to extract almost 60% profits in 15 years time period with complete return of investment.

Chinese foreign investments where Chinese state finances are involved like in CPEC project are considered free from any competitive bidding process or any other scrutiny as a pre-requisite by the Chinese state bank. Under this scenario the Pakistani public procurement rules/regulations (PP&RA Laws) are thrown in the bin out-rightly for all CPEC related projects.


CPEC is the part and pilot project of China's One Belt One Road initiative



China is putting 46 billion USD in the CPEC as an investment upon which, China is looking to extract almost 60% profits in 15 years time period with complete return of investment. Almost 36 billion USD out of this amount will be invested in energy and power sector with establishment of power plants all across the CPEC for proposed economic zones which would certainly attract further foreign direct investments, but at a certain cost.

In the most recent G-20 summit in China, the only internationally hailed news was the signing of the environmental protection accord or the so called Paris accord/Kyoto protocol by both China and the USA. Under this agreement China must decommission its ageing coal based power plants causing most of the nefarious smog in the Chinese mainland. China was looking a way to head in this direction for quite some time now. But the incurring costs on the said decommissioning obviously doesn't suit the business competitiveness model of the Chinese economy upon which the "Red Empire" rose to her current status. Not until now, the Chinese had an opportunity to decommission their ageing coal based power plants and shift them to Pakistan as part of the CPEC related power projects. The Chinese would not only sell these coal based power plants to the energy starved Pakistan but also make 60% more profit from this junk which will reportedly reach 20% of its total capacity by 2028 requiring a complete overhaul.

While Pakistan would be provided with the severely short electricity its economy and in particular the CPEC requires to flourish, China would be getting rid of its ageing power plants on huge profit margins. Its a win-win situation for both sides until we consider the disastrous environmental impact, these projects would cause to Pakistan. These concerns have already been aired by the commander of the Pakistani Army Southern command in a seminar on CPEC earlier this year.

The cost of these projects related to CPEC is the second biggest grey area well hidden by both the governments of China and Pakistan protected by the Chinese state bank clauses and thus remain free from any public scrutiny in Pakistan or for that matter China. With the track record of corruption and nepotism, Chinese and in particular the Pakistani officials led by Pakistani Prime Minister Mr Nawaz Sharif, it is evident that another billion dollar scandal is in the making.

It is a very genuine demand of the Pakistani population who have some kind of knowledge, that the stated grey areas of CPEC must be addressed and scrutinized now, before its too late as usual. The Chinese investment is the need of the hour for Pakistan and its economy and Chinese friendship and strategic partnership has been always most welcomed by every segment of the Pakistani society. However, to keep this special relationship flourishing and to further strengthen the Pak-China deep rooted strategic partnership, these grey areas must be addressed at priority.    

          


         

Wednesday, 31 August 2016

China Flexing Muscles



China has finally decided to shed away the policy of looking inward and is seemingly ready to flex her muscles. at least in it's regional theater. Chinese policy makers have already warned India, that their country is willing to get directly involved in the eventuality of any Indian aggression towards Pakistan. It is an indirect message to the USA, which is forming a strategic alliance with India to counter China.

China is not only re-affirming its economic commitment in the region but also is looking to confront the US designs to counter the rise of China in the region through military means if deemed necessary. Chinese response to the US aggression is at both diplomatic and strategic levels where China is forming new strategic alliances, essentially focusing on Asia. China has already established her mark in Africa and Latin America much to the discomfort of the USA. Chinese financial resources are making a limited, but highly potent ingress in the western technology businesses. Chinese flags are waving all across the global financial horizon while China is now extending this influence in the strategic spheres starting from her immediate neighborhood.  

China has rejected American influenced arbitration over the South China Sea by the ICJ even before the announcement of the judgement was made. The way international law works is by voluntary enforcement of decisions where nation states are involved. China's blunt refusal to obey any arbitrary rule of the ICJ means China is finally following in the USA's footprints in establishing regional hegemony.

China on its northern frontiers is building an artificial island in South China sea to station PLA modern war machinery on a very fast pace. In the South, they have reached the warm waters of the Arabian sea through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The Chinese Navy will be stationed at the Pakistani port of Gawader. So much for the USA's plans of China's containment which essentially banks upon India.


The USA is fast  losing clout in the Chinese neighborhoods and it's evident. While the USA navy still controls the world seas and it's trading routes, China is claiming her own turf in the region. On the other hand Chinese President Xi Jingping's Iron Silk Route related infrastructure investments in Asia and Europe, are aimed at shifting the Asian Pacific and Euro-Asian trade, from sea to land routes. Such a scenario would drastically cut down the USA's influence over the global economy, whose future lies in the Asia Pacific. The CPEC will link the Middle Eastern region directly with the Chinese mainland. The Chinese economy is dependent on the energy resources from the Middle East while at the same time Chinese businesses are flourishing in the Middle Eastern markets.

THE CHINESE ONE BELT ONE ROAD INITIATIVE IS LOOKING TO CHANGE THE FACE OF EURO-ASIAN TRADE AND THE END OF THE USA'S INFLUENCE ON GLOBAL TRADE ROUTES.


The USA's response to the entire situation is an alliance with India to counter the rise of China. Indian capabilities to meet the USA's expectations as such are however limited and makes no impression on China being an established regional power.

Post Brexit United Kingdom with an investment of 80 billion US dollars and more by China is only paving the way in the Euro-Asian region for the rise of Sino-Russian alliance as global superpowers along with the USA. What we are looking at is the end of the uni-polar global world order into a multi polar global order led by the USA, Russia and China.

USA in her last ditch efforts are busy creating conflict in South Asia to hinder the rise of China by using the corrupt politicians and bribing India with  US transfer of military and aerospace technology. However, the Indo-US alliance is handicapped to meet its objective due to time and space factor in this global strategic competition. The USA is fast loosing steam after it's meaningless wars post 9/11 which resulted in the loss of trillions of dollars to the US economy. The political cost of the bloodshed killing millions of humans in these wars, fought under false flag agendas, is hurting the USA's global repute having it's impact on the USA's domestic theater. The USA's domestic infrastructure both at material and social spheres, requires an overhaul which would sooner than later force the USA to look inwards, loosing it's global policing to the new regional powers. China only knows this too well, and is patiently but steadily flexing her muscles to claim the space being lost by the USA in this strategic scenario. Pakistan is the prime example of this incurring phenomenon where China is fast gaining grounds abandoned by the USA.

The essential difference between the US and Chinese methods of exerting influence in various parts of the world, lies with the Chinese policies of investing in the host economies, generating profits and spreading prosperity as opposed to the USA's methods of wasting money through corrupt systems of   USAID and military intervention causing misery to the countries on the receiving end.          

Friday, 19 August 2016

The Only Solution For Kashmir


The foremost step in conflict resolution is accepting the existence of any conflict. The Hindu nationalist mindset in India is unwilling but forced to acknowledge by internal and external pressures, that, Kashmir is an unfinished agenda of the partition of the subcontinent in 1947. This is the first step towards a resolution of the Kashmir dispute.

The death of Burhan Wani by the hands of the Indian Army in Kashmir, sparked the recent wave of bloody protests in the Indian held Kashmir supported by demonstrations from across the line of control in Pakistan. These protests, on one hand exposed the Indian apartheid in Kashmir under their control and on the other hand globally established the Kashmir conflict as a political dispute being constantly ignored by the Indian government.

Most recently, throwing the Indian nationalist position on Kashmir in the dustbin, UN Chief, Ban ki-moon slams killings in India-held Kashmir and calls for India-Pakistan dialogue. The UNO is seemingly under intense pressure by the successful Pakistani led diplomacy which calls upon the resolution of the Kashmir dispute. The UNO is otherwise being heavily criticized for failing to resolve all issues relating to the Muslim world with an epic failure in Palestine, Libya, Syria and the list goes on. The global mainstream media  irrespective of their allegiances is forced to take notice of the plight of Kashmiris in the Indian held half of Kashmir where Indian security forces have thus far killed and maimed in-numerous Kashmiris in a freedom struggle supported by Pakistan. India is diplomatically and informatively being successfully cornered to accept the political nature of the Kashmir dispute. The global formal and informal media and diplomatic channels are on fire in efforts essentially led by Pakistan, but the blood of innocent Kashmiris shed by Indian security forces is the main fuel burning this fire.    

The Indian government is under intense public pressure from around the world to resolve the Kashmir dispute. Same pressure constitutes the reason for the Indian government's positive response to offer of talks by Pakistan. Such talks have been held in the past as well, without substantial results, but succeeded in establishing certain confidence building measures.

It is in the interest of the Pakistani government led by Nawaz Sharif to resolve the Kashmir dispute, for such a scenario would surely curtail the Pakistani security establishment's hold in the power dynamics of Pakistan. Indian government led by Narendra Modi has invested a lot of political capital in the government of Nawaz Sharif and makes no secret of this fact. Does this mean Kashmir will get Aazadi? (Freedom). Most likely not, as both India and Pakistan won't relinquish any territory under any circumstances while both countries are holding almost equal parts of Kashmir.

Another important geopolitical dimension of the Kashmir dispute is the Indo-US and Sino-Pak strategic alliances. Both these strategic alliances put the nuclear armed India and Pakistan on yet another conflict path in regard to Kashmiri territory. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC is the most important element of The Chinese One Road One Belt (OBOR) initiative.The OBOR forms a strategic and mega-economic drive by China to free it's dependence on the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca which fall under direct US influence. By linking the Chinese region of Xingjiang to the deep sea port of Gawader in Pakistan, China has already found an alternative to the trade and commerce route with the Middle Eastern region and the rest of the world. In this regard, China is in the process of investing 46 million US Dollars in Pakistan for the development of the CPEC which also passes through the Pakistani controlled territory of what was originally part of Kashmir.

The entire situation gives China an ace in global geopolitics, fast tracking her rise as a superpower. This obviously doesn't sit well with the USA,  hence India is playing the part of the USA's strategic partner to openly confront the Chinese-Pakistan designs regarding the CPEC. However, this particular scenario has brought China in the picture as a direct stake holder in the Pakistani security interests. A headache again, for India and USA for sure, but there is only a limit until you can sabotage a nation which is dedicated to making a project of such magnitude a success. Both China and Pakistan under no circumstances will back down on the CPEC. China's prestige as a regional power and her desire to become a global superpower essentially rests on the success of OBOR, as well as the result of the South China Sea dispute to which the CPEC is an alternative.  India can either join in the development as offered by China or keep nagging and waging the proxy war it has already started against the project from Afghanistan through the mercenary elements that are available there in abundance.

Re-focusing back on to the Kashmiri dispute, and its just resolution, the only viable solution is to allow free movement between both sides of Kashmir in staged phases. This is in the national interests of China, India and Pakistan however negating USA. In doing so, India may join the OBOR project through the CPEC via Kashmir linking the two biggest global economies of the world. It would not only provide relief to the human tragedies of the Kashmiri people, but would boost the regional economy too. Such a solution to the Kashmir dispute would slowly but surely diminish the decades old rivalry between China-Pakistan and India creating a stable region and bringing in global investments, not to mention the people in the most populous part of the world would be able to live, free of fear, hate and constant war mongering.

It is the only viable solution to the the Kashmir dispute provided the nationalists and hawks in both India and Pakistan give a break to their ego based and testosterone fueled decisions.                   

Tuesday, 16 August 2016

THANK YOU MR MODI

Indian PM Mr Narendra Modi giving his independence day speech at New Delhi, India on 15 August 2016.

Indian PM Narendra Modi in his speech on independence day validated following: 

1. Pakistan's claims about Indian intervention in #Baluchistan.
 
2. Kashmiri population's stance that India is least interested in allowing their democratic rights.

3. India seeks confrontation in the region.

On top of that, India finally provided a valid reason for Pakistan to act against India to counter the threat India posed to her security.

Mr Modi single handedly destroyed the Pakistani segment of society propagating India_Pakistan peace and at the same time united the divided Pakistani population over an all out counter offensive to Indian aggression.

Pakistani hawks, but only have sincere thanks to Mr Modi for professing their point of view.

In the end, it is no more about India and Pakistan, but after the advent of #CPEC project, China has direct stakes in the security of Pakistan. India May be able to tackle Pakistan, but to take on China and Pakistan both simultaneously is simply not possible for India, even sitting in the American lap.

China has its reputation as a regional power at stake once it comes to Pakistan. If China can't prove to be a regional power, than no one will take their rise as a superpower seriously in entire globe. Chinese only know it too well. That's the reason Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson,talking to the media few days ago said, "Pakistan is to China, what Israel is to the United States".

India is playing a very dangerous game by targeting Pakistan in a proxy war, commissioning the Taliban Frankenstein through Afghanistan. It had almost worked for India, if only, Pakistanis didn't know how to play the game they invented themselves better.

Indian Machiavelli tactics,or shall we say Chankiya doctrine, will only come back to haunt India. Its only a matter of time and nerves, which the Pakistanis displayed to be on their side time and again. 

As for India's newly found love affair with America, in the words of the famous Pakistani President Field Marshall Ayub Khan, "It is dangerous to be the enemies of United States, but, it is even deadlier to be their friends".

Modi and his Devil's Advocate Ajit Doval did it again by unleashing their dog Altaf Hussain yesterday, who was tasked to bark against the very country he feeds on. It was done so as that the security establishment respond by killing the few thugs left in Karachi still supporting Altaf's MQM, and provides India with a reason to launch a media campaign targeting Pakistan and it's security establishment. The move backfired yet again just like #Baluchistan, essentially resulting in uniting #Pakistan, in particular against India and Altaf's #MQM in Karachi. 

Indian efforts to divert attention from #Kashmir are repeatedly being blunted by mature response by Pakistani establishment.

Only vicious card now left with the devil's advocate remains to be the mercenaries called Taliban.