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Wednesday 23 August 2017

Strategic Realignment of Pakistan-Global Impacts



Donald's Trumps latest rhetoric against Pakistan, harboring terrorist and all in his Afghanistan policy speech does not come out as a surprise for anyone at all and is nothing new. America is fast loosing the war in Afghanistan and its an open secret around the world. US government won't ever admit it, hence the favourite scapegoat to put the blame of the shameful defeat is their major non-NATO ally, Pakistan.

USA invaded Afghanistan as a direct consequence of the 9/11 attacks. The aftermath of that tragic incident was manipulated by those who had an advance warning of this calamity. Without doubt, the strongest lobbyist in Washington, that is Israel(AIPAC) knew and carefully planned to globally benefit from the tragic events of 9/11  ( https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/rise-of-zionist-empire-how-israel.html ).

The US government in post 9/11 scenario, was heavily lobbied by the Indians with Israelis in their direct support to put India as a regional counterweight to the inevitable rise of the 'Red Empire' in Asia. It was only natural for the USA to go to bed with India and try putting a barrier to the rising influence of China in her home region. India, aspires to become a regional power but can't take on China at one side and Pakistan on the other, which are both strongly allied nuclear armed states like her.

While USA is facing defeat in Afghanistan, it is her desire to 'outsource' the region to their puppets, with India in the driving seat of their bandwagon. There is but, few major problems faced by the US government in implementing their policies.

Firstly, Pakistan being immediate neighbour of Afghanistan, foresaw the US defeat based on their established old habit of abandoning the mess they create after meeting the immediate, shortsighted goals. Looks like they never learnt anything from their Brit cousins. So, the Pakistanis took safety measures especially after experiencing the US betrayal first hand in the aftermath of winning the 'Cold War'. The US created and Armed the Mujaheddin in association with Pakistan only to dump them on the later, once they thought, they were of no good use anymore. Pakistan, didn't have that luxury, being located in that region, so, kept their ties with the Frankenstein's monster created by the USA and kept trying to tame it. It definitely doesn't mean that the monster did not haunted Pakistan. Pakistan paid the price and continues to do so, through the blood of thousands of her soldiers and civilians on daily basis. It's a price though, Pakistanis knew they would have to pay for the choices they made. Pakistanis always knew what they were getting into, by taking upon India on Afghan soil which is backed by the USA. The Indians, from the Afghan soil funded the 'international ideological mercenaries a.k.a Pakistani Taliban', who are the rogue third generation mercenaries of 'Afghan Jihad', targeting Pakistan, to give them a taste of their own medicine they had used in Kashmir against the Indian occupation of the region (https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/afghanistan-pakistan-standoffindian.html). The Indian national security adviser publicly announced and acknowledged this policy while speaking to university students in India (https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/ajit-doval-devils-advocate.html). As a result, Pakistan choose to take upon India in Afghanistan being directly supported there by the US, in a fight for her survival. This also dictated Pakistan to strategically realign it's priorities and prepare for softly divorcing the US led western alliance and join the Sino-Russian camp.

 USA is no more the sole superpower of the world, or possess the power it once had before 9/11. The 'Oil Wars' in the middle east based on 'WMD lies' have weakened the American might drastically

The other major problem with the US policy in Afghanistan is, that the place is the very backyard of China and Russia.  USA simply can not continue to play there and keep bullying the entire region, without expecting retaliation from these regional powers. USA is no more the sole superpower of the world, or possess the power it once had before 9/11. The 'Oil Wars' in the middle east based on 'WMD lies' have weakened the American might drastically. America acquired their sole superpower status after winning the 'Cold War', defeating the USSR in Afghanistan through her proxies, 'Mujaheddin' now known as the 'Afghan Taliban'. That American victory chartered by the 'Mujaheddin' in Afghanistan led to the breaking of the USSR.

Only two decades later not only the same proxy, which won the USA led western capitalist alliance their war against the USSR led communist bloc, is the US/NATO chief enemy in Afghanistan, but, the old socialist enemy of the USA is also back to haunt the western world in the new capitalist attire. Russian bear is all inclined to take back its lost territories and influence, almost after four decades of suffering the humiliating defeat by the USA.

 Chinese investments in Afghanistan have bought them an unprecedented influence in the country. Russia is all on board with China in Afghanistan and both these regional powers are in negotiations with the Taliban, due to kind the courtesy of Pakistani connections with the 'Afghan Taliban', which the Americans are so very critical of.

Pakistani Army played its due role as a US major non NATO ally cooperating with the US and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) on ground in Afghanistan. Pakistan also provided key logistical support to the US forces/ISAF in Afghanistan. However, the Pakistani intelligence, skillfully retained but avoided using their influence over the 'Afghan Taliban', while the US wanted to negotiate a deal with them by bullying Pakistan to strong arm the 'Afghan Taliban' into such a deal. Although such a deal would have given the US, some kind of 'face saving exit', from Afghanistan, which was/is in the interest of Pakistan, but  the Pakistani intelligence outfits backed off from brokering any such deal, only after confirming that, such a US deal with the 'Afghan Taliban' would be made by compromising the Pakistani strategic interests superseded by those of India.

  The 'Indo-US' strategic regional alliance plans to counter China's rise in the region and neutralize her influence in Afghanistan and beyond. This also directly jeopardizes the Russian influence in the mineral rich countries of 'Central Asia' with the US eyes affixed on their natural resources. India is hated by Pakistan due to historic reasons, with three wars under the belts of both these countries. There is hence, a natural alignment of strategic interests between, China, Pakistan and Russia. That is where it hurts the US most, to loose Pakistan which is geographically located in a position to make or break both Afghanistan and whomsoever controls Kabul.

It is no coincidence that the Pakistani Armed Forces officers are increasingly being seen in Moscow and visiting Russia regularly while China is like a second home to them now. Russia is providing modern military hardware to Pakistan irrespective of the Indian objections, which is the biggest weapons exporter from Russia, but not for too long. Russia reckons that after the 'Indo-US' strategic alliance, it's only a matter of time that the Indians would be forced to shop their military hardware from the US/West. The 'Indo-US' nuclear and military deals are an omen in that direction, Russia never failed to notice.

Old friends are now foes and vice versa in the interesting times we now live in.  

China-Pakistan-Russia alliance backs the Taliban principle demand, that before any formal negotiations with the Kabul regime, the 'foreign invaders', must leave their soil. Such a move will level the playing fields of Afghanistan and the US allies would loose influence in the region. USA simply can not afford such a scenario, so 'Pentagon' forced President Trump, embattled in a political carnage due to his naive choices, to increase the troops in Afghanistan. He went back on his words and was made to swallow his spit, just like Obama, when he was forced to increase troop numbers in Afghanistan by his Generals in the longest ever war faced by the USA. The difference between Obama and Trump is that Obama did it as a political move, while Trump has been strong armed by his defense establishment to do so.

Pakistan is by far the most viable way to keep the said 'logistical lifeline' alive for the US troops in Afghanistan. The US government, may it be Trump administration or the brass at Pentagon must be careful not to antagonize Pakistan, beyond reproach

The bullying by Trump won't change a thing in Pakistan and her attitude towards Afghanistan. Pakistan knows that it controls the vital logistic support corridors of the US forces in Afghanistan. The other option, which is a much more difficult way and extremely expensive passage, is controlled by Russia. The only other passage, neither developed nor utilized to the land locked country, to provide 'logistical lifeline' to the US military in Afghanistan passes through Iran. Pakistan is by far the most viable way to keep the said 'logistical lifeline' alive for the US troops in Afghanistan. The US government, may it be Trump administration or the brass at Pentagon must be careful not to antagonize Pakistan, beyond reproach.  China is fully backing Pakistan both morally and materially with 50 billion dollar investments in Pakistani infrastructure. The Saudis have pledged their oil and money to the only nuclear armed Islamic country, whose military has pledged to defend their kingdom in the face of an existential threat.

Pakistan is a nuclear armed state and the USA simply does not possess the potential to disarm the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, no matter how much it threatens, shrieks or boasts about doing so. Pakistan visibly, has the capacity and capability to choose its foreign policy

Aforesaid considering, Pakistan silently but surely, over a course of one and a half decade, strategically re-aligned itself away from the USA keeping in view her own supreme national interests. While Pakistan may never completely divorce the US and NATO, the core Pakistani geopolitical and strategic interests are now aligned with those of China and Russia. Pakistan is a nuclear armed state and the USA simply does not possess the potential to disarm the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, no matter how much it threatens, shrieks or boasts about doing so. Pakistan visibly, has the capacity and capability to choose its foreign policy. The financial support accorded to Pakistan by her allies in addition to vast mineral wealth at her disposal coupled with the Geo-strategical location in the globe only adds to the Pakistani strengths.

India will have to make a choice, as to either peacefully co-exist with her neighbours or face a nuclear Armageddon. India won't be allowed to enforce the US centric agenda in the region it is housed, on the behest of her newly found lover sitting safely across seven seas playing her to do its dirty laundry. Peace is the only logical way forward for all stake holders in the Asia Pacific, for this entire region to realize and exploit its economic potential and bring billions of mankind out of poverty. The US and its allies will have to sooner than later realize, that the fires they are fuming in Asia will find its way to their homeland like before. USA will have to stop acting audaciously around the globe as if, it is the sole superpower of the world, which it is not.

As for the vastly unemployed, unskilled population and crumbling economy of America, Trump and his American hawks, now needs to find some way, other than the recruitment and loan-funding of the military-industrial complex which, is waging mindless wars around the world, only benefiting those few at the top of the food chain in the western world. It is however, not possible until and unless US public finds a way around the highly corrupt and manipulated political system governing them being continuously exploited by the vested interests through controlling the US politician's funding by lobbyists like the AIPAC.

Pakistan will continue to exercise its foreign policy independently, irrespective of the US bullying. The Pakistani global diaspora is a force beside its nuclear armed military to deter any misadventure by either the US or India. The US puppet government in Kabul will have to come to terms with the Pakistani position instead of playing as the Indian lackeys and support the funding of the insurgency in tribal areas of Pakistan from the Afghan soil. For Pakistanis will avenge and call upon its debts after the 'foreign invaders' will leave Afghanistan. In any case, the American puppets in Kabul will run away to the western world, sooner or later after finishing their loot of western world's aid money like Karzai and Co did so. Pakistan on the other hand is here to stay and retain the influence in Afghanistan, in partnership with China and Russia, hopefully bringing much awaited relief for that war torn country in the shape of peace and prosperity.                                                   

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