India-Pakistan: A Case For Peace

Human emotions are the most illogical, yet strongest motivation for both peace and war. These emotions may be based on ground realities but easily remain susceptible to manipulation. Fortunes are made through such manipulation all around the globe. But these fortunes are predominantly made at the cost of human misery and tragedy. Such is the nature of an age old conflict between both India and Pakistan. Till date this conflict has given birth to numerous human tragedies and sufferings born out of politics of hate and fear.

Both Indians and Pakistanis mostly remain misinformed about each other plagued by stereotypes and prejudices. Hatred and fear, not reason, derive the distorted perceptions ( https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2015/09/impediments-to-india-pakistan-peace.html ) of both sides.

Enough has been written and said on the background of the India-Pakistan rivalry based where religion remains to be the basic cause of contention. Organized clergy and the politicians seeking their patronage on both sides are the main instigators and beneficiaries of this conflict. In the process, both countries have brought the entire region onthe verge of a nuclear holocaust which may engulf the entire world with its fall out.

The biggest sufferers of this tragedy of errors on part of the religious and political leaders of both sides are the innocent population on both sides. While the politics of hate and fear by both sides is ferociously played, it works on continuously radicalizing the people, in particular the youth of both sides.

The problem governing this historical rivalry essentially revolves around the Kashmir issue. However, the major escalation of this rivalry and resultant bloodshed is due to the willingness of both Indian and Pakistani state officials, especially in security and intelligence spheres to enhance respective careers exploiting this tragedy of errors. This further intensifies the already complicated quagmire called India-Pakistan bilateral relations.

The demographic pattern of the Asian subcontinent essentially consists of emotionally charged and highly reactive population. Under these circumstances, the situation will always remain ripe for opportunistic state officials, politicians, religious clergy and any outside force which stands to benefit from this rivalry. The looser will always be the same emotional population on both sides which are easily led and being treated as sheep by their respective leaders under the scenario.

Kashmir being the principal bone of contention towards a durable Indo-Pakistan peace requires a solution for the sake of both India and Pakistan and the future of its populations. Pakistani model of Kashmir on its side is an ideal solution for India. Pakistan boasts an independent Jammu and Kashmir with fully democratic self rule and at the same time free movement and reserved jobs in Pakistan with reserved seats for Kashmiri youth in all state educational institutions. If India lets go of its autocratic rule in Kashmir with an iron grip over its democratic institutions and allows free movement and trade between both sides of Kashmir, only then a resolution, acceptable to all stake holders may take effect, Such an eventuality would not only ease the horrendous human sufferings of the populations effected by this rivalry on both sides but also will pave the way for a durable peace between both the nuclear armed neighbours.

If European nations after centuries of wars among themselves can form a project like the European Union, the least India and Pakistan can do is to tame down all the hatred and disgust towards each other and work to resolve their differences through the similarities born out of a shared heritage.  

 " Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate;      only love can do that. "

                                                                                                     Martin Luther King, Jr.


           

Is Pakistan Heading Towards Another Military Coup?

While banners ambiguously inviting the Pakistan Army Chief to take over the government in the country appeared in all major cities of the nuclear armed Islamic republic, it was business as usual at GHQ,the Army headquarters. The country has a well established history of repeated military coups. The banners were put across by a political party having little reputation. However, these banners did create international headlines jolting the corridors of power in Pakistan. Army PR mouthpiece is tight lipped about the banners which were erected even in the military cantonments which possess heightened security measures making it highly unlikely to erect such banners without the requisite approval of the cantonment civilian officials. In some instances it was reported that the banners were carried on vehicles bearing official civilian government registration plates. The political party behind these banners is called "Move On Pakistan", which is headed and funded by a Punjabi businessman. While rumors are widely spread out that various powers within the Pakistani security establishment are supporting this political party, the proof of the same rumors are almost entirely non existent.

The so called political party "Move On Pakistan" claims these banners to be an invitation to the Army Chief General Raheel Sharif who is due to retire in four months time to overthrow the civilian government of Mr Nawaz Sharif and install a government of technocrats overseen by himself. This political party came to prominence after putting across likewise posters few months ago pleading the Army Chief to seek an extension to his tenure as the Army Chief is due to retire in November 2016. The banners were erected previously as a response to the highly celebrated Pakistani Military Chief's publicly announcing his decision of "not to seek" an extension to his tenure as the Army Chief. 

Pakistan Army is considered as the "center of gravity" of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, a role cherished and jealously guarded by the military which has ruled the country for most of her existence. Pakistan is currently under political turmoil after the rampant corruption scandals which marks the civilian government of Nawaz Sharif with the latest feather of "Panama Papers" highlighting the corrupt practices of the Nawaz Sharif family. 

The Pakistani Military always keeps a "Plan B", to secure the national interests if the civilian leadership is considered to be "compromised". This "Plan B" is supposed to be a detailed worked out contingency for the takeover of a failed regime through martial law at any time to be replaced with a nationalist technocratic setup. This contingency is well within the constitution of Pakistan. The said technocrat setup is experienced enough to run the matters of the state without any hindrance while carrying out an in depth accountability process purging the deep rooted corruption in the system of governance in Pakistan. It is said that the Military through its elaborate intelligence organizations are keeping records of all public and official office bearers regards their corrupt practices and illegal money earned through the same. The Military's hands are however, tied due to the absence of a constitutional mandate to hold any such accountability. A Military coup and a technocratic setup in power overseen by the martial law is the only hope for any accountability carried out on the basis of the said intelligence gathering by the Pakistani Army.

It is the desire within the Pakistani security establishment born out of public expectations to purge the entire system of Pakistani state apparatus from the deep rooted corruption which is the primary fissure endangering the very foundation and federation of Pakistan. Corruption at all levels of the "state apparatus" of Pakistan also feeds and fans the curse of terrorism in Pakistan. But most ironically the Pakistani military is also part and parcel of the same "state apparatus", being discussed here. The action by Pakistani Army Chief  Gen Raheel against his own officers involved in billions of rupees of corruption might be the first such accountability at the highest levels of the Pakistani security establishment, but it was just the tip of an iceberg. Pakistani Military is the part of the same society Pakistan is made of, where corruption is accepted as a way of life. Pakistan Army attains a superior position in the power dynamics of Pakistan for its ability to lay lives for the defense of the country on regular basis. Every one officer killed after eight men in the current war against terror is the highest officer to men killed ratio around the world. This great sacrifice of young officers and men gives the Pakistani Generals the ability to dictate terms to the civilian government. The same ability of laying lives for the motherland affords Pakistani Army the public support it enjoys over the politicians and makes Pakistan impregnable against all odds. In an international scenario with powerful enemies like India in the US lap and Taliban funded by the enemies of Pakistan through Afghanistan fueling the home grown terror mechanism, Pakistani Army is surely the last line of defense the Pakistanis can ever be certain of fighting till last drop of blood for that country. 

In the circumstances as discussed above, irrespective of the tainted record the Pakistani Military itself possess, for the people of Pakistan their military is still the last hope they cling with. To their credit, the politicians boasts the public mandate of less then half the population which voted for them, who are now evidently skeptical of performance of the politicians compared to the perks they enjoy at public expense. People of Pakistan distrusts a Prime Minister and his government who does not trust his own country for medical treatment. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif just returned to Pakistan after 40 days of absence due to a heart surgery in London at public expense. While most of Pakistanis even don't trust he underwent an open heart surgery as claimed by his family, such is the level of distrust by the public towards an elected PM. The majority of Pakistani political elite remains abroad and maintains lavish properties outside Pakistan. Corruption is all ripe and considered a way of life for the Pakistani politicians and civil servants.

Under the circumstances the appearance of the banners all across Pakistan for the Army Chief to declare martial law and hold widespread accountability is not a surprise to the Pakistanis but a representation of the majority thought process in the country. On the other hand the Pakistani Army holds a plan to install a technocratic government for a long haul to overhaul the entire system of ridding it from the deep rooted curse of corruption it identifies as the greatest threat to Pakistan's security and federation. 

Having said that, like witnessed in the past, absolute power has a way of corrupting the Generals themselves and the current lot headed by General Raheel Sharif knows it all too well. General Raheel Sharif possesses a heartily desire to save Pakistan from the curse of corruption. General Raheel Sharif has embarked upon a tough path towards across the board accountability starting from his home base. General Raheel Sharif has given his words to the young officers and men he commands who gives him the immense power to dictate terms to the country's stubborn political elite that he will "finish what he started". How and what he plans to do is still a mystery to many as the Army has made a deal of convenient power sharing with the civilian government of Nawaz Sharif where the defense and foreign policy is in the direct domain of the GHQ (Army Headquarters) while the rest of governance remains with the politicians.  

In the aftermath of the "Panama Papers" scandal the Pakistani parliamentary opposition is jointly taking a stance against the government of Nawaz Sharif. The only thing thwarting a comprehensive action against the Nawaz government was his return from medical leave. Now that he has returned the opposition is planning to come at him with full force. So far Nawaz Sharif cronies succeeded to defend his premiership and an inquiry against his family by scaring the politicians in opposition of an uncertainty being created if Nawaz is exited allowing the Generals to take over power. All the politicians are the rats scared of the cats in khaki uniforms.    

  Nawaz Sharif  knows all this too well, and by secretly supporting this stunt of allowing the banners and invitation of martial law may want to scare the opposition which is planning a mass public protest against him over charges of corruption highlighted in the aftermath of the "Panama Papers". The threat of military takeover has to be exploited for the politicians in opposition to refrain from embarking upon a planned public protest against Nawaz Sharif who failed to justify his family's unaccounted foreign assets. Only Nawaz Sharif or the Army had the power to allow all these banners to be erected in all the major cities of Pakistan including the cantonments areas. The Army wasted no time in removing these banners from its Garrisons and maintained its decorum. Civilian government vehicles were reported to have carried these banners in some cases. It all points to the conspiracy of civilian government of Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif in Punjab to hype this drama in a desperate attempt to scare the opposition politicians with the threat of martial law. In fact, the Army has no intention of overtaking the government which it intends to self correct or self destruct for the Army does not wish to be blamed for another military coup exonerating the politicians of their follies like in the past taking all the blame of all the odds itself. The "plan B" of a technocratic government is a contingency if the civilian government fails to function endangering the national stability and security. The opposition is already calling the bluff of Nawaz Sharif government as evident from the statements of senior opposition politician Aatizaz Ahsan rejecting any danger of a martial law exposing the conspiracy of the government infuriating the federal information minister. 

In all probabilities, Nawaz Sharif government and his family has tough days ahead while no immediate relief for Pakistani public ridding them of corruption is in sight.             

                             

Afghanistan-Pakistan Standoff_Indian Underlying Design

Pakistani security forces responded aggressively to Afghan stubbornness at the Torkham international border. Afghanis killed and wounded Pakistani security forces men in an unprovoked attack which resulted in the aftermath of the construction of border management apparatus by the latter well within Pakistani border. However, the Afghanis in their delusional state of mind refuse to accept the Durand line (International border). The price was paid for by blood and sheer humiliation by the Afghans who now face a closed border which is the life line for imports of daily commodities and food in the landlocked country.

This delusional mental state of the war torn country results in frequent border clashes with Pakistani security forces. Post 9/11 Afghanistan with the American implanted puppet government in Kabul, supported by India, this situation is only worsening. In the latest round, the Afghanis retreated like every time in the past suffering heavy casualties and immense humiliation.

The Afghan National Army and Police comprises essentially of rag tags compiled using US money having limited fighting capability. The Afghan Armed Forces are no match to the well organized and equipped Pakistani forces which even possess a potent nuclear arsenal. The result of all future Afghanistan-Pakistan border skirmishes will remain the same as seen in Torkham a few days ago in which the Afghanis will retreat after getting severe beatings and humiliation.

But that won't change the Afghanis delusional mindset being sweet poisoned continuously by the Indians. So powerful is the spell of the Indian sorcerers, that the Afghanis have forgotten the only country in the world which provided them with shelter and livelihoods, whenthe Soviet empire ravaged Afghanistan.

Pakistan was awarded the UN recognition award being declared the world's most hospitable nation for providing care to the Afghan refugees since 1979 to the present date. The Pakistani economy and culture is still suffering from the aftershocks of that hospitality in the forms of unaccounted financial loss and violence. But the Afghans are willing to forget all that blaming Pakistan for everything wrong in their corrupt to the core, terror and drug infested society. Again Indian designs launched over decades of investments in Afghanistan and it's leadership are at play here.

India in her quest for regional hegemony has newly founded an affair with the US empire. The USA is desperate to counter the natural rise of China in the Asian Pacific region and for that reason alone, they have adopted India as a foster child. Pakistan is in the Chinese camp in this new game and that seems to be irritating the US greatly. Indian animosity towards Pakistan may be historical in nature, but serves the US cause with them providing all out support to India in her quest for regional hegemony.

India is conducting an intensive clandestine operation against Pakistan from Afghan soil. Indian public money is being used through the Afghan intelligence apparatus to hire mercenaries under the banners of Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan, Baluchistan Liberation Army and other target based splinter groups. Recently apprehended senior Indian intelligence officer Kalbushan Yadev has given away the entire Indian designs of his country against Pakistan. As per this Indian Navy officer serving on deputation with Indian Intelligence agency, RAW, India is involved in extensive subversive terrorism inside Pakistan.

Indian nefarious designs are spread all over Pakistan commissioning huge resources like Pakistani political parties rogue elements in it's largest metropolis and religious fanatics like Fazullah, who ordered the attack on Malala. Indian national security adviser Ajit Doval makes no secret of it while he boasts about hiring the Pakistani Taliban to sabotage the Pakistani state.

Pakistan has tried its very best to make amends from their past after taking a U turn on its Kashmir policy of supporting the insurgency there and supporting the Afghan Taliban government in Afghanistan under US pressure. However, these positive steps by Pakistan only encouraged India to utilize the same resources Pakistan had abandoned to be used against them by India.

Afghanistan provided the perfect launch pad for India to sabotage the Pakistani state. More so, Afghanistan government is a willing  partner to the Indian designs against Pakistan for the sake of Indian money and due to US support for the Indian role in Afghanistan. The situation is only expected to escalate against Pakistan, while China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) gets closer to its realization.

India won't give up on her hegemonic designs under the Chankiya philosophy it follows. US, scared of the Chinese rise, will only encourage India while strengthening bilateral strategic and defense ties, further strengthening the Indian resolve.

Nationalist feelings in China in response to the US bullying is also on the rise. China clearly understands the Indian malicious intent while it retains its policy of engagement with all friends and foes irrespective. China is awaiting the realization of the One Belt One Road project, which would drastically cut the US influence in the Asia Pacific region. The US maintains her ascendancy primarily through the control of sea routes patrolled by the US Navy. As and when the Chinese One road one belt project is completed, The US will be forced to reconcile with the Chinese ascendancy in the Asia Pacific region. China will obtain the regional super power status through the ground trade routes and modernization of the Chinese military currently in progress at fast pace. US empire on the other hand is torn internally maintaining its external influence on continued debt most of which is owned by China. Indian dreams of grandiose will take the plunge with the natural rise of China through its one belt one road project.

The flagship of Chinese designs of linking it's economy with Asia and becoming a power controlling two oceans, rests on the CPEC. It is but a matter of global repute and prestige for China to complete CPEC on time which spearheads the one belt one road project.

Pakistan is completely on board with China having left with no other choice and in its best national interest. Having said that, until such a time, the Chinese mega designs are not met through the completion of the entire one belt one road project coupled with the modernization of the Chinese military, Pakistan would be mostly on its own. Pakistan needs to devise a military and diplomatic strategy to counter the Indian nefarious designs which includes Pakistan's relation with the US and response to Afghanistan's delusional mindset.

It would be only wise for Pakistan to keep the US engaged in maybe bitter but functional diplomatic relationship. It is a compulsion for the US to maintain this relationship. Pakistan is a nuclear power having the capability to play havoc in the entire region if cornered to the extreme. The US maintains and operates its biggest foreign mission in the world from Islamabad while it no more enjoys the clout it once had in the country. There is no such thing as a free ride and the US must be told accordingly by Pakistan. In the meantime, the lobbying efforts in Washington is a step in the rite direction by Pakistan. The greed infested, easily led US political system can be managed through the use of hired lobbyists. It's a profitable investment for the time being keeping US belligerence to a manageable scale.

It would be pragmatic for Pakistan to entice Iran into forming a partnership. Pakistan needs not to engage in a hostile relationship with a country with which it has a shared history of cultural and economic cooperation. It is only in the Pakistani interest to pursue peace with Iran to stabilize respective Baluchistans in both countries. Shunning away the US pressure, Pakistan needs to complete its side of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline upon which work is completed on the Iranian side but stalled in Pakistan. This project will provide strength to the bilateral ties opening further avenues of cooperation. Indian investment in Chahbahar port needs to be ignored for the time being as Chahbahar can never acquire the strategic importance Pakistan's Gawader port possesses.

Afghanistan needs to be taken to task aggressively by Pakistan. A Strict border management system must be placed on the Durand line by hook or by crook. Every border violation and aggressive move by Afghanis must be responded ten folds to teach them a lesson they must never forget. Pakistan have played the big brother enough only to suffer humiliation and pay through the blood of Pakistan's soldiers and civilians alike. Afghanistan must be given a taste of their own medicine. In future all vehicular traffic and goods being transited/exported into Afghanistan from Pakistan must be taxed and charged with all freight/transit charges. This will result in the Afghanis utilizing a three times more expensive route from Iran that they have signed up for with India. This should help to kick some sense into their delusional brains. It would also provide a huge benefit to the Pakistani economy currently being haunted by smugglers misusing the Afghani transit trade facility provided free of charge by Pakistan that succeeds in only destroying the Pakistani manufacturers market competitiveness.  

Pakistan needs to revive its selective assets within Afghanistan to counter the Indian presence actively. If India wishes to play the dirty game of covert black ops, then Pakistan needs to prove her worth by telling the Indians that Pakistan is seasoned in this game. Pakistan needs to covertly launch a counter strike against the Indian nefarious designs of bleeding Pakistan systematically.

India would never hold back until their own house is not put on fire. Pakistan must revitalize its offensive defense and exploit the inherent fault lines within the India state. Kashmir insurgency needs to be reinvigorated through logistically supporting the Kashmiri freedom fighters. Kashmir's freedom struggle has already been revived by the young educated Kashmiris bearing the flag now. They must be supported diplomatically on an international stage by Pakistan as well as providing them covert logistical support.

India's fragile hold on its side of Punjab also needs to be exploited by supporting the resurgence of the Khalistan movement. As well as the great political divide in India based on state politics must be utilized by Pakistan to spread discontent and internal strife in India in particular in the South Indian states. Pakistan also needs to convince China into taking active interest in the Maoist insurgency in India. Pakistan would be better served in strengthening the bridge between China and Sri Lanka through aggressive diplomacy.

Pakistan needs to further enhance her defense cooperation and transfer of modern technology with China. Through China; Pakistan may also approach the Russians to acquire modern defense technology. The Russians unlike the past are seriously dismayed over the Indian embrace of the US with whom they are fighting "the new Cold War" with.

Until then, China is able to rise out of the US led belligerence against it, Pakistan needs to survive in this world where only the fittest survive. The country has always risen out of the ashes to prove it's sustainability, and it must do so once again.

The future of global economy rest with Asia-Pacific. Pakistan is the only country which provides the critical linkages to the various Asian economies by connecting them through its ground and sea routes. The future belongs to Pakistan, only if its able to hold the present.....

Global Banking System- The Greatest Deception Ever

The global banking ( GBS ) system controls the entire world's economy through an intricate system of paper and wire transactions guaranteed by the state banks of their respective country. The banking system itself banks on the illusion of financial security created by promises of the merger of governments and the global banking system which is essentially not entirely backed by materials like gold. The beauty of this illusion called the banking system is to make people believe and accept the transactions and sales based on the exchange of fancy papers and plastic. The complete world trusts the system to the extent that lives and livelihood are almost entirely dependent on an illusion. If the global population decides to call their bluff at any stage, the whole world's financial system will collapse. This unholy merger simply does not have enough material possessions, to back the pieces of paper that they call money, that they are circulating in the world. Similar to the famous dialogue by Al Pacino in the movie devil's advocate, "The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world, he didn't exist"  the greatest trick the GBS ever pulled, was to convince the world, the value of money exists. To top it all off, the GBS within themselves also believe in the same lie they tell the world. The whole system is a facade which has seemingly no alternative in the modern world as we are led to believe. This fake system is based on its global acceptance by the masses who are made to believe this lie by the GBS. Upon this great deception stands the world financial system. This great deception is recreated every time this system fails and consequently re-booted through bailouts based on the same lies we are lead to believe in.

As previously mentioned, the biggest financial crisis of modern times may be easily explained. The US mortgage crisis for instance was a system failure of the same set of lie upon lies which eventually became too big and ugly to remain hidden under the carpet. However, the managers of this great deception, that is the GBS again got a bailout by their unholy partners, the state/government while the real losers were the hundreds of thousands of poor people who lost their homes and were forced out on to the streets. 

The most dangerous aspect of this great deception is the fact that essentially, the entire GBS is owned by a set of few families. These families hold the keys to the real power in the world based on the system they govern. Through this system, these families control the governments which in turn control their respective population. In essence these elite families rule the world, utilizing the which is in fact based on the greatest deception mankind has to ever live with. These thirteen or so families among themselves holds the reigns of the world based on a system of paper money. This system or deception as it really is stands to benefit the capitalist financial order, where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

The GBS doesn't challenge the writ of these elite families by calling their bluff and demanding the value of paper money in totality, there is no end to the greatest deception man has ever lived. Having said that, an eventuality as such would definitely cause a global collapse of the deception based financial system. It would mean chaos, plunder, loot and bloodshed. 

The only way to reject the mentioned deception of the GBS is to substitute paper money with precious metals and commodities. It would return the speculative financial system governed by the banking sector into real materials which will be calculated on ground. This is the only method through which the manipulation of the entire world's economy can be stopped. It would end the concept of inflation which is the biggest cause of poverty in the world. It would take control of mankind's livelihood from the thirteen families and their pawns, and give it back to the working class through transparent and fair exchange of goods based on valuable materials for example gold and silver standard coins. It would  give a jolt to the GBS seeing as they don't possess the value of paper money that they guarantee. This means the banking cartels or the families controlling the banks would go bankrupt hence lose control of their hegemony on the global economic order. 

The entire system would have to be re-booted from scratch and brought back to life with a new set of rules and practices. Barter trade will have to replace the paper money wire transfers and electronic transactions. This system will increase productivity which would create enough jobs to employ the unskilled global population to end poverty in the world. It would enhance global food production helping eliminate hunger from the world. 

The world would be most definitely better off, rather flourish without the global banking system as it stands today. The default rule of the thirteen banking families would end over the world, promoting peace. The military industrial complex thriving on war is also governed by these family enterprises. The greatest deception the world ever suffered from, needs to end, if the human race requires peace and prosperity.   

Could Iran Replace Saudi Arabia As The US Partner In Middle East?

After the passing of the 9/11 legislation in the USA, the Saudis are the unhappiest allies the US has in the oil rich Middle East region. The US Senate passed the 9/11 bill irrespective of intense Saudi pressure. Americans may now take Saudi officials to court seeking punitive damages for the 9/11 attack. Fourteen out of seventeen hijackers who flew in the hijacked planes in an attack on Washington and New York were Saudi nationals. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always officially denied any involvement in  the 9/11 attacks. However, the policies of the Saudi government are blamed primarily for the global spread of Islamic extremism by the west and in particular by the US. Saudi's brand of Wahabi fundamentalism is severely criticized by both the Muslim and the non Muslim world, for being instrumental in the spread of extremism and terrorism. Mega billion investments by the Saudi kingdom's elite were unable to influence the US decision to take them to task for 9/11. The general perception about the Arab elite is otherwise critically adverse in the western world due to their insolent behavior and at times criminal attitudes in brazen disregard of human rights.

On the other hand US is on its way to reintegrate Iran into the global community by lifting decades old economic sanctions on the country. Iran is also an oil and gas rich economy having the strategic potential to match the Saudi influence in the Middle East with western support.

Iran and Saudi Arabia are otherwise daggers drawn against each other. They are both sworn enemies, fighting a war of influence among themselves due to the Islamic sectarian division. Iran represents the Shia school of thought and maintains its clergy and holy sites while Saudi Arabia leads the Sunni sect of Islam also housing the common Islamic holy site of Kaaba. Both the countries in the Middle East have been involved in the age old battle of influence and leadership of the Middle East and Muslim world respectively.

Iran till date, after the Imam Khomeini led Islamic revolution, was in the bad books of the USA. Anti American sentiments run deep in the Persian society post revolution. However, there is a visible dissent in the modern Iranian society towards the anti American sentiments and favoritism towards western popular culture which is branded by America.

Saudi Arabia may be a trusted US ally in Middle Eastern region, but the anti American sentiments within the Saudi society run as deep as their Iranian adversaries, if not more.

It's a choice for the US policy makers to hold hands with the lesser of two evils, while USA is in the process of "strategic realignment" in the Middle East shifting her focus to Asia Pacific, which is the future of global economy. The USA requires a partner having maximum mutual interests in  the Middle East to hold fort for them while they conduct the mentioned realignment.

The Iranians seem to be a more progressive and liberal society as compared to Saudi Arabia, but is it enough for the US to join hands with an old enemy and in the process antagonizing trusted partners in the Middle East?

The answer largely depends upon us, as to how the principle US Middle Eastern partner, Israel, views either Iran or Saudi as a US partner and about how much weight the Israeli recommendation carries for the US policy makers. The answer to later questions is quite simple, that Israel through its US Jewish lobbyists holds a certain iron grip on the US Middle Eastern policy. The tricky part is the earlier raised question as to how Israel would prefer either of the Middle Eastern giants to team up with the US in future, while the USA is looking to realign in the region which would definitely entail the reduction of a US military presence and more dependency on allies in the region. Israel on its own won't be able to sustain itself, let alone be able to police the entire volatile region for the US. Israel will have to make their recommendation soon to the US policy makers.

Iran has always been highly critical of Israel while her leaders like former President Ahmadinejad called for wiping out Israel from map of the world. But that's just politics and Israel is wise enough to analyze that. However, Israel-Iran troubles runs even deeper where Israel have been actively involved in sabotaging the Iranian nuclear program through its clandestine operations. Israel has been the most vocal opposition against the Iranian nuclear deal, lifting the economic embargo on the country. The US administration ignored the Israeli apprehensions surprising many around the globe. The same phenomenon gave way to the speculations that the USA, by bringing back Iran into the global fold. is looking for a strategic partner to replace Saudi Arabia in the Middle East.

Having said that, it is only pragmatic to refrain from concluding that the USA would dump Saudi for good. Firstly, Saudi Arabia still possess investments of over 70 billion dollars in the US economy. More importantly, the House of Saud that rules the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. holds extensive ties with the Israeli leadership. Reportedly, the current Saudi king, Salman, financed the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's election campaign with multi billion dollar donations. Netanyahu's severe criticism of the US over the Iran nuclear deal, is partly explained by the states circumstances.

Israel will never allow the US to form an alliance with Iran which could substitute Saudi Arabia. However, the US administration will diversify her strategic alliances in the Middle East for the best interests of America. It is evident after the rebuke to Israeli apprehensions against the Iran nuclear deal and lifting of sanctions against Iran. the US is surely looking for a new partnership with Iran in it's so called strategic realignment in the Middle East.

On one hand it would allow the US policy managers in the Middle East to put a leash on Saudi Arabia, while on the other, provide greater strategic leverage to project influence in the entire region, if Iran is willing to play ball. It is also in the Iranian interests to counter their arch rivals in the Middle East by at first  affording maybe limited and hidden cooperation to the US, which may in later years bloom out to be a strategic partnership,  proving  beneficial for both countries.

Is USA Interested In Afghan Peace?

A Common Scene in US Servicemen's Graveyard

US fatalities in Afghanistan by the hands of the Taliban militia stand at at well over 2000 deaths. Two thousand coffins sent back home wrapped in the American flag. Expecting the still standing, sole super power of the world to forgive and forget the loss of it's men and woman (The American casualties caused by the rag tag militia) in the longest battle they ever fought in their history is too much of an ask by any standards. The conception and formation of the Taliban is a product of the United States itself in collaboration with Pakistan during the cold war that eventually became their Frankenstein monster after they cut them loose once they had defeated the might of the Soviet Empire. This Frankenstein, came back to haunt it's makers after three decades of being abandoned in the wild. Although most of the domestic populace in the United States now is of the opinion that Afghanistan is a useless war bringing more misery to America than benefit, but very few are aware of the real reason that the US went into Afghanistan and will stay there for foreseeable future. Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden aside, US has mega strategic interests in maintaining her military presence in Afghanistan, which happens to be the very backyard of China and Russia. Afghanistan also happens to be the gateway to energy rich Central Asia. Supporting the Afghan cause is ensured by the CIA which also generates its unaccounted black funds from the world's largest illegal drug market producing more than 90% of  the global opium produce. The CIA may continue to deny the facts about their drug cartel links terming them as their sources. However the drug money trail does reach the CIA agents on ground in Afghanistan and certain rogue American elements who are working as US Contractors in Afghanistan hired by the CIA. Some basic research through any online search engine will provide endless volumes of references about the age old CIA drug trade links around the globe. How can  anyone expect the CIA not to claim their share in what is  currently the biggest drug market of the globe; Afghanistan. This illegal drug trade of  billions of dollars simply won't be feasible for both the CIA and the Taliban if Afghanistan finds lasting peace. The lucrative mega drug empire in Afghanistan thrives on chaos. In reality, the on ground turf wars in Afghanistan between the US forces led by intelligence spooks, Al-Qaeda, ISIS and Taliban, are fought over the control of  poppy producing areas and the product itself. The Jihad and its philosophy essentially gains legitimacy for the Taliban and other Islamist radical groups while recruiting disillusioned youth subsequently in a thriving mercenaries business funded by the Afghan drug trade. In the end its all about money, whether you want  to believe it or not.  

    

The American Flag wrapped coffins continue to arrive from Afghanistan 

Returning to the million dollar question of:  "Is the US really interested in sustainable peace between their funded Afghan government in Kabul and the Taliban?" For this an assessment of durable peace v war in Afghanistan is necessary to analyse. How would peace affect the USA?  The US backed Kabul government will be sharing power with the Taliban. It would also imply that the US will have to leave Afghanistan vacating the military bases it built after trillions of dollars in overall war expenditures. It would also require the CIA to close its declared and hidden bases and stop ground clandestine operations which are also a lucrative source of non audit-able black money. Above all peace in Afghanistan requires the USA to give a rain check to the Taliban and remaining extremist militant groups. This would look like complete amnesty is being granted to these organisations especially to the serviceman's family and fiends, who know their loved ones died at the hands of these "enemies"   

The rag tag militia that was originally created by the USA itself is defeating them in the ground war being fought in Afghanistan. The primitive army as pictured above is winning and is a cause for global embarrassment for the "US empire" 

Is the price worth it for the USA just for the sake of peace in Afghanistan? The cost would be loosing physical influence over the entire region, forgiving an enemy which brought so much pain and misery to the USA and allied troops and subsequently loosing prestige due to an army of "bandits" as they give the perception of being to the rest of the world. The same bandit's bringing down the entire might of the US Empire as they did to the Soviet's in the past would make the USA look weak and incompetent in the eyes of the entire world. 

The cost is too high for the US to pay for achieving peace with the Taliban or between Taliban and their sponsored government in Kabul. Under the circumstances we may assume that the US will remain a presence in Afghanistan and the region for the foreseeable future. The US made this amply clear with the killing of the Taliban Chief, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor in a drone strike in Pakistan (For details please read: https://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2016/05/killing-of-mullah-mansoor-impact-on.html).  This killing most recently proved what the "real"  US interest in the Afghan peace process is. The Afghan peace process being sponsored by China, Pakistan, the Afghan government and the US themselves stands defeated. What remains to be seen is how the  Chinese and their friends would respond to this behaviour by the USA and is all together a different ball game. Keep watching..       

Ajit Doval-The Devil's Advocate

AJIT KUMAR DOVAL

He is the great Indian spy master as they call him. He is highly decorated irrespective of being a civilian. He started as a Police officer and rose to be the head of Indian premier intelligence agency. His experiences made him a hero in his own rights. He claimed to have lived in the arch rival country, Pakistan as an under cover agent for seven years. He is currently the National Security Adviser (NSA) to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He is the devil's advocate for he executed his plan to give Pakistan a taste of their own medicine by hiring the Taliban mercenaries and putting Pakistan to fire. His endeavors as such have burned and killed hundreds of thousands of innocent Pakistani civilians. He makes his devil's doctrine no secret from the world while he lectured the (SASTRA) university students in India on how to tackle Pakistan through his policy of investing in Pakistani created Taliban mercenaries. He simply suggested to double the money where Pakistan puts it, and make the international ideological mercenaries aka Taliban attack and destroy the Pakistani state. He considers it to be reverse engineering through the use of more money then Pakistan could ever match. Ironically his doctrine worked in favour of Doval, while Pakistan burned like never before by the hands of it's own Frankenstein now commissioned by the Indian money. Ajit Doval added yet another feather to his cap, but at the expense of earning the title he's being referred to over here.
 (For Details : http://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2015/01/indians-playing-with-fire-repercussions.html)           

A Spy Master or just another Career Bureaucrat ?

Ajit Kumar Doval is in fact a career bureaucrat who became what he is by the virtue of his line of service being an efficient police officer who later joined the intelligence bureau and followed a strict career oriented lifestyle. His career path took him places and afforded him the opportunity to create the myths about him as they are told. Like all career oriented executive class Indian officers he acted strictly on the philosophies and teachings of the dead man who still haunts the Indian sub continent now called South Asia. He follows CHANKIYA like all his peers who is the Indian Machiavelli. CHANKIYA's works are taught in the Indian civil services academy till date teaching the managers of India in statecraft, diplomacy and clandestine activities. Ajit Kumar Doval has been part of the same grooming process and for his career orientation naturally took the crazy dead man as some would call him a bit too seriously.
(For Details:-  http://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2012/07/imprints-of-dead-man-on-south-asia.html )

Ajit Doval's much glorified mythical status is created by deceptively boasting his role as an undercover spy in Pakistan for seven years where he was in fact the head of security for Indian diplomatic mission being a Police services officer. Ajit Kumar Doval's only one lie as such tells the story of the remaining myths. Such stories are created all the time on paper citations to earn awards and honours by similar typical military and civil bureaucrats. Ajit Doval is as career aspiring a bureaucrat as the next man, as his successes in his career may be attributed to the team that he managed or was a part of. Ajit Kumar Doval can be easily termed as a paper tiger as they call them in the subcontinent. This overrated paper tiger is responsible for more bloodshed in South Asia then any of his contemporaries could have ever accomplished. He is also, more cunning then the rest of them for he pledged his loyalties to the RSS for ensuring his rise to power after retirement from government service. RSS is the militant wing of the Indian ruling party BJP and that is the latest stair case Doval used to take him to his present assignment as the Indian NSA. No wonder he finds it easy to play the devilish game he's best at so openly and comfortably for his demonic doctrine is bought easily by the Hindu fundamentalist ex RSS and their ultra nationalistic ideals. Having said that,  Ajit Doval, is still a mere Babu(clerk) who became the myth he is for nationalists in India desperately needed Hindu heroes as such after the recent rise of Hindu Nationalism in India which allowed Narendra Modi to come into power . It was the same mindset which gave Modi a clear chit over the massacre of thousands of Muslims under his direct watch in the infamous Gujrat riots in India. 
(For Details: http://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2015/11/the-rise-of-hindu-fundamentalist.html)

Narendra Modi Brought Him Back From The Cold For A Reason

 While the moderate Indian narrative is that they choose Modi irrespective of his tainted human rights records for the promise of economic revival of India on his Gujrat economic model, which he is now delivering upon. Modi still needed to retain Hindu nationalistic extremists support to deliver upon the promises he made to his Indian vote bank by hook or through crook. For all such reasons and more he hired his trusted extremist Hindu fundamentalist colleague Ajit Kumar Doval from the cadres of his parent organisation, RSS, which not only recommended but ensured Doval's position in the power corridors of Delhi for carrying out the dictation of RSS Head Quarters which runs the present Indian security policy in essence. Ajit Doval in the meantime sells his same old story being the Babu he is carrying out the orders of his bosses which happens to be RSS now.

 Ajit Doval by following his dangerous policies, is only lowering the Pakistani nuclear threshold endangering the entire region, exposing it to a nuclear holocaust. It is only natural for Pakistan to increase reliance on her nuclear arsenal while its threshold diminishes with every effective blow on her state apparatus and conventional war machinery by the mercenaries hired by Doval using the Indian public money. As for the insurgency in Kashmir supported by Pakistan is concerned, it was ceased and taken a U turn upon by Pakistani President Gen Musharraf in 2004 under intense US pressure. Ajit Doval's devilish strategy flourished using the same ideological mercenaries Pakistan decommissioned and ceased to support in Kashmir. Ajit Doval used the same militants by hiring them through Afghans to be used against Pakistan instead. The policy worked well for Doval and his bosses only to be blunted in last few years by an all out offensive by the Pakistani security establishment targeting these mercenaries ruthlessly across the country. Those who escaped the Pakistani military onslaught are now either in hiding or at Afghanistan where they are afforded refuge in a largely ungoverned country.

It would be only pragmatic to conclude that Ajit Kumar Doval's devil's advocacy in the shape of publicly boasting highly confrontational clandestine policy towards Pakistan backfired for India. It created further trouble for Indian state security from across the borders making India less secure then before as seen during the "Pathankot Air Base Attack". The cost of Doval's glory hunting attitude resulted in the loss of Indian Armed Forces personal's life at Pathankot while the same behaviour makes it possible for anti India extremist organizations to thrive in Pakistan and elsewhere creating a certain threat to the lives of ordinary Indian citizens. Ajit's boastful public proclamations of hiring mercenaries to conduct terrorism in neighbouring country also ashamed the world's largest democracy by being branded as an irresponsible state having a big mouthed NSA like him. Little do the world know that he is no more then an overrated cop seeking his place in history at the any cost whatsoever.  

              

 
 

Future of Asian Economy

In a world of business competitiveness, the future of global and regional economies depend upon interconnectivity through the most accessible and economical routes.

Pakistan sits in the most populous region of the world fast becoming the future of global economy being in the middle of Asia Pacific. Pakistan is the only country which can connect the mega economies of China and India with the emerging markets like Iran, Middle East and Central Asia through the most economical and fastest ground and sea links.

Pakistan also holds the keys to most accessible energy corridors to both China and India. Hence, stability in Pakistan may directly benefit the entire region, in particular China, India and Iran.

The anti state forces at play in Pakistan are only working to hinder the realization of entire region's economic destiny. The future belongs to economic integration by connecting regional economies through Pakistan.

Peace through conflict resolution is the the only way forward. However, to achieve it, the general population of the region, especially India and Pakistan needs to realize the potential of joining hands and working through their differences.

Leadership in both India and Pakistan use the hatred for other to avoid bringing up real issues haunting the lives of common folks in both the countries. The same leadership needs to realize that by linking with the global economy through most economical and already established routes, an economical revolution may take place, which would drastically enhance the lives of poor people in both countries. It's time we let go of petty politics and work together for a better future claiming the rightful share of South Asian subcontinent in the global economy. The hate mongers won't shut up over night, but the sheer size of the economic progress will force them to tone down and ultimately their voices and actions would stop having an impact in both countries.

What Do We Need To Learn from China-Future of CPEC

While China embarks upon her 46 billion US Dollar investment/soft loan towards the Pakistan China Economic Corridor (CPEC), they have simultaneously also pledged a 62 billion US Dollar investment into Iran taking further steps towards the realization of the "Road and Belt" initiative of Chinese President Xi Jingping. At the same time China maintains an annual bilateral trade of more then 70 billion US dollars with India as per official figures of Indian government's Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics for the year 2014 alone with investments of almost 64 billion US dollars in India. (http://www.indianembassy.org.cn/DynamicContent.aspx?MenuId=97&SubMenuId=0) 

In his last visit to India, President Xi Jingping signed an investment of 20 billion US dollars in infrastructure development projects in India which are well under way. 

(http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-29249268)

Indian Prime Minister in response visited China and signed 24 different agreements of wide ranging co-operation with China worth around 10 billion US dollars.

(http://www.ndtv.com/cheat-sheet/24-agreements-signed-between-india-and-china-during-pm-modis-visit-763246)

 This indicates the growth of the bilateral relations between both the world's top growing economies. For China it's all good business and India is playing ball and reaping unlimited benefits for it's citizens. It also indicates that irrespective of fighting an all out war among themselves in 1962 and various other skirmishes and political brawls, both China and India are mature economies, which give priority to business foremost and setting aside traditional rivalries which may be competed on separate grounds. India's seriousness in improving bilateral relations with China are evident due to her principal stance in direct opposition of USA to support Chinese position on South China Sea issue. 

China is the biggest foreign debt holder of the US economy in the world. This practically manifests both Chinese and US economies as inter-dependent on each other. Irrespective of the realist school of thought's offensive aspirations about a war between the sole superpower of the world and the emerging super power that is US and China, the actual chances of any such encounter is almost non-existent. Both powers will remain engaged in a proxy cold conflict in a war for influence around the globe but will stop short of an open confrontation for that would mean the global economic meltdown which either countries can't afford. The current Chinese bilateral trade ties with the US stand at a staggering 103,159.2 million US dollars in 2016.

(https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html) 

China following its consistent policy initiative starting in 1999 called the "Go Global Strategy" has successfully diversified her investments around the world spearheaded by the Chinese flagship enterprises. These investments are equally distributed between the east and west making the host countries a partner with China in progress and trade which entails stakes of host countries and China embedded as one. An example is the recent Chinese investments in the UK worth 11.7 billion Pounds Sterling from 2005 to 2013 while China envisages another 105 billion Pounds Sterling in infrastructure development in the UK by 2025. 

 (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/501808f6-5b89-11e4-b68a-00144feab7de.html)    

The point of above debate and figures is to understand the phenomenon of making "Brand China" and the insight into the marketing of this brand around the world, promoting China's soft image in direct contradiction to her popular image fabricated by the western corporate media exploiting Chinese human rights atrocities within China. Chinese global business strategy is based on shared interests with partner countries which has recently focused on connecting Europe with the Asia Pacific region. The complete world acknowledges Asia Pacific to be the future of global business and China is using the huge amount of investment at her disposal to connect the future of global economy with Europe drastically curtailing dependence on sea routes which is predominantly controlled by the USA. China in one go is out to remodel the entire way of doing business, free of the superpower influences, cutting the US hegemony to size without any armed conflict. China has been thus far able to create this mega business empire by keeping business as business and a cup of tea as a cup of tea. Meaning, China strictly differentiates between trade relations and political rivalries at global stage and so far it is a marvelous success story. China seemingly remains oblivious of it's opposition's vocal critique on her controversial domestic and foreign policies, while continuing business as usual with the same countries. As a result China has been able to grow steadily and expand her influence in Euro-Asia in particular with an ever increasing hold on Africa.              

IRON SILK ROAD

Coming back to the CPEC, it is worth mentioning that the CPEC is just one of the important tentacles called the Southern Corridor of China's grand "One Belt One Road" initiative under President Xi Jingping. This planned, so called New Silk Route's southern corridor as shown in the above map (Blue Colour) is being built incorporating complete South East Asia, South Asia and Middle East linking it to Europe. While Pakistan remains the most important link of this route connecting the  deep sea port of Gawader to mainland China through CPEC, the same route includes India and Iran as a part of the southern corridor. It must be noted that China for this southern corridor alone has already pledged 128 billion US dollars in infrastructure investments in Iran, Pakistan and India amounting to 62, 46 and 20 billion US dollars respectively.

Having said that, it is only naive of the Pakistanis to pursue a policy of confrontation in it's region, may it be with India or Iran. The future of the entire region is linked to its economy which will be driven by trillions of dollars of Chinese investments in future off-course spearheaded by the CPEC. The CPEC and it's success is critical for Pakistan, it is the key to her survival on the international stage with China being the only remaining partner Pakistan has, which has any global influence. If Pakistan wishes CPEC to be a success as per the Chinese vision, then Pakistan must learn a lesson or two from China and revisit her personality driven reactionary policies. Pakistan requires to listen to the various think tanks it commissions and make more forums as such for formulating long standing policies, that must never be allowed to be tailored as per the whims of different personality driven objectives as is the practice in place in Pakistan. While Pakistani security concerns are genuine, they must not be allowed to overshadow the economic development in the region being undertaken by China as the CPEC as it's flagship. Pakistan will only gain strategic clout and economic influence over her neighbours by providing them a link to the CPEC through which they may be mutually connected as well. The resultant tariffs will provide the Pakistani economy with the much needed boost and it will all eventually fit in with the original designs of the principal sponsor of Pakistan, that is China. The CPEC's success depend upon regional co-operation, not confrontation. By providing ground access to neighbouring countries, Pakistan will only raise their direct stakes in the stability and security of Pakistan.    

THE MOST POWERFUL FORCE EVER KNOWN ON THIS PLANET IS HUMAN COOPERATION-A FORCE FOR CONSTRUCTION AND DESTRUCTION.

(Jonathan Haidt)         

    

Killing of Mullah Mansoor-Impact On Pakistan&Region

With the killing of the Taliban Commander Mullah Akhtar Mansoor in Pakistan by a US drone strike, the security calculus in the region will be slightly disturbed and move in the favour of forces unfriendly to Pakistan and it's influence in the region. It is said that Pakistan had substantial influence over Mullah Mansoor's actions, giving weight to the international perception that he was Pakistan's man. While Pakistan failed to bring Mullah Mansoor towards peace talks with the Afghan government in time. Subsequently the US through a drone strike ended his life while he was travelling from Iran into Pakistan, on his way to Afghanistan. Media reports suggest that Mullah Mansoor was living in Pakistan with a different identity and also held properties. It obviously indicates and validates the general perception that Pakistani intelligence had influence over Mullah Mansoor. On one hand, the killing of Mullah Mansoor has seriously curtailed the Pakistani influence on the Afghan Taliban, which was critical for bringing them to peace talks through the Quadrilateral Contact Group(QCG) comprising of US. Afghanistan, China and Pakistan. On the other hand, a huge question marks is put over the Pakistani states role in providing refuge to international terrorists.

Under the current security policy of Pakistan, the Pakistani state is serious in playing its major role to broker peace between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan government in Kabul, which is supported by the international community being the closest example of an organized state governance entity acceptable on the international stage. However, there are two factors at play in sabotaging this policy of Pakistan. Foremost is the Indian-Afghan intelligence alliance working ferociously to counter the Pakistani influence in Afghanistan for which they are willing to go to any extent. Secondly, Pakistan's own house does not seem to be in order, where border control is loose and obtaining residence in Pakistan using money is child's play for anyone, in particular for Afghan nationals, who are living and working in Pakistan and use Pakistani passports to travel and work abroad. Playing the double game won't help Pakistan anymore as no one can ride in two boats for too long.

The first reason for sabotaging Pakistani efforts for peace in Afghanistan, which was spearheaded by the powerful Pakistani Army Chief himself is a result of a game to obtain strategic influence by two arch rivals in South Asia. The second reason is a mix of corruption, inefficiency, lack of ground checks by Pakistani government organizations but above all the cost of  the Pakistani hospitality that was given to the Afghans ever since the cold war. (Also read "Cost of Hospitality" http://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2012/07/cost-of-hospitality.html )

It is clearly evident that Pakistan promised the world community more then it could deliver once they took upon themselves to bring the Afghan Taliban to the table for peace talks and make them agree to long standing peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan bargained for more then they could handle with its security forces already stretched to their limits domestically fighting an insurgency. The kind of influence Pakistan once exerted over the Afghan Taliban was lost in majority if not in totality the day the Pakistani state provided military bases to the US Forces which attacked Taliban governed Afghanistan post 9/11. The same phenomenon resulted in the creation of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) who waged a war within Pakistan targeting the Pakistani state for providing logistic support to the US for attacking Afghanistan. This "war within" bled Pakistan almost dry. Pakistan played the price of siding with the international community led by US post 9/11 through hundreds and thousands of human casualties and billions of dollars of loss to her economy. Under this duress and for the fear of total collapse Pakistan unwittingly decided not to crack down on the Afghan Taliban ,whose loss of support meant an uncontrollable situation in Pakistan. Pakistani security establishments wrongfully calculated that the Afghan Taliban would contain the Pakistani Taliban fighting the Pakistani state from Afghanistan and would also provide them leverage of strategic control in Afghanistan where India was making an unprecedented ingress. The Pakistani state could have maintained their control on the Afghan Taliban without supporting them. This is clear because of the economic and logistical dependency they have always had on Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban literally did nothing to contain the Pakistani Taliban fighting a war of attrition with Pakistan. However, the Afghan Taliban used Pakistani grounds to acquire logistics support to wage a war against the US/ISAF in Afghanistan making Pakistan look like an accomplice in the crime in the eyes of the international community. India cashed upon this situation and on one hand supported the Pakistani Taliban financially waging a war in Pakistan from Afghanistan while on the other side strengthening their hold in Afghanistan by providing legitimate financial and technical support to the Afghan state and in the process, gaining the trust of the Afghans.

The Pakistani state, in a reactionary policy ,seems to have conducted a damage control exercise by making sincere efforts in bringing the Afghan Taliban to terms for striking an enduring peace deal with Afghan government. The current security establishment led by Gen Raheel Sharif and his Intelligence Chief Gen Rizwan (DG ISI) believed that a stable Afghanistan is highly in the interest of Pakistan for which all out efforts were made by them in the last couple of years only to be blunted by the Indian-Afghan intelligence alliance which is trusted much more by the Americans in comparison to their Pakistani counterparts for obvious reasons.

Having said that, the killing of Mullah Mansoor in essence resembles loss of just another pawn in the game. Pawns are there to be sacrificed as others are present to replace their position. However, this game in the long run can only bring disastrous results for the entire region as playing with fire has hazardous consequences.

Moving forward Pakistan is left with very limited choices where they may retain relevance in the international community by co-operating to control and put a leash on the Afghan Taliban with the same ferocity they are taking upon the Pakistani Taliban.

Pakistan still holds the keys to the landlocked Afghanistan providing them with the easiest, economical and most workable access to the rest of the world. Playing upon this strategical advantage and being the bread basket of Afghanistan, Pakistan can still repair it's ties with the country and at some stage in the future by providing land access to India into Afghanistan on favourable terms, become a permanent partner in regional progress and a key element in the regional economy.                              

        

Nawaz Sharif's Standing In The Military

Before coming to the specific subject it would be worth clarifying that the Pakistani military is a more democratic institution than any other in the country where good discipline still reigns supreme. Military and democracy are two opposing entities but the Pakistani military brass manage their affairs through a detailed and deliberate system run by internal organizations providing regular pulse of the troops and young officers to the higher command. This pulse report is a major factor in decision making by the top brass of the military who have the broader picture and other sensitive information also in perspective to which troops and young officers are not privy to. Final arbitrator in all decisions are the services chiefs and once a decision is made, it is never questioned but followed with the above mentioned knowledge well known by the men who are tasked to accomplish respective orders. This procedure is part of the Pakistani military culture and as Mao Zedong stated:

"an army without culture is a dull-witted army and a dull-witted army can not defeat the enemy." 

 The system is not perfect as it's ultimately a personality oriented mechanism but it's still the best running and functional system in the nuclear armed Islamic republic, providing it the much desired stability and sustainability in the international nation state systems. This system controls the arsenal of Armageddon and commands maximum leverage in the power dynamics of Pakistan. It best suits the managers of this system to keep it running the way it's going on for well over six decades since gaining independence from the British Raj. Within this time period Pakistani military ruled directly most of the time and indirectly for the rest. The only time the military was restricted to its respective domain was the brief period rite after independence when honest and dedicated politicians ruled the country selflessly and their only priority was nation building and public welfare. The other time was when a self styled revolutionary Z A Bhutto ruled after Pakistan lost half of its eastern wing due to an unbalanced war with India. Z A Bhutto in his revolutionary yet rash rule destroyed the Pakistani economy by nationalizing the entire private industrial complex in the country, but his popular image afforded him to sustain his rule. However, he was eventually hanged to death for political murders, but that only became possible because he challenged the military and even insulted the officers corps in an effort to "put them in their place."  Bhutto seriously miscalculated his popularity in his bid to take over absolute power in a country where military closely monitors the moral authority of the rulers based on their governance. This same moral authority is directly proportional to their leverage of control over the military establishment in Pakistan, who are the real power brokers of the "deep state". The same procedure and control allowed the Pakistani Army to kick out Nawaz Sharif in the past; once indirectly and later directly from power.

Father of a slain Pakistani Army Officer kisses the forehead of the Army chief  putting his trust in him like the majority of  Pakistan's  population that take their military as the last line of defence against all enemies foreign and within 

Pakistan military holds tight control and their fair share in the power dynamics of Pakistan and jealously guard them. This is supported by popular public sentiment in the country. The Pakistani military's organizational strength and the ability to lay down their lives for their country, in the highest officers to men killed in combat ratio around the world, affords them the moral authority and public popularity and acceptance of their unconventional hold on power dynamics of Pakistan. The Pakistani military has become very comfortable with this arrangement and the only challenge to their hold in these power dynamics can be a leader with moral authority or a revolutionary mindset.

Nawaz Sharif is (almost unanimously) hated to the core by the junior leadership of the military due to the corruption allegations against his family, especially in the aftermath of the panama papers scandal. The same feelings of disgust and mistrust against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif are in the junior leadership, who directly command the troops and portray their feelings to the higher command. This forced the powerful Chief of Pakistani Army Gen Raheel Sharif to directly confront the Prime Minister Raheel Sharif (No Relation) a few days ago. Gen Raheel told Nawaz Sharif to expedite the accountability process and solve the panama papers crisis without further delay. This direct confrontation at the PM House in Islamabad was widely circulated in the national media which gave the young military leadership assurance that their higher command is doing something to resolve their apprehensions about the current civilian leadership.

Having said that, the point to be noted is that firstly the military top brass does not wish to derail the democratic process in the country which is still in its infancy. International opinion is also averse to direct military rule and the brass knows it too well to take any rash action against the civilian government. The current arrangements as stated regarding the power dynamics of Pakistan only suit the military brass. Hence, the Pakistani security establishment will not directly intervene and take over the government like in the past until and unless the federation of Pakistan is at stake due to anarchy, chaos or any other lethal factor. The Pakistani security establishment will keep on facilitating the democratic  process in the country until the time that it either self corrects or self destructs. However, it is the military brass's desire to allow the course of law take place at it's natural pace in regards to the corruption charges faced by Mr Nawaz Sharif by the Pakistani judicial system.

 Nawaz Sharif has however lost all respect and moral stature within his country's military who don't take him seriously anymore and consider him for to be the protector of the corrupt to the core political class fighting to retain their looted riches at public expense whilst continuing to plunder. In the meantime the current power dynamics of the country won't change until the Pakistani public with more than 70% turnout predominantly votes in a civilian leadership with strength of character which gives them the moral authority to challenge the military's hold in the dynamics of the country. Until such a time, what seems to remain the order of the day in Pakistan, in the words of  the legendary Chinese leader Mao Zedong:

" Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun."

 Mao Zedong