6th Generation Warfare-End of Globalization

                                                                        

After fourth consecutive cancellation of my flight from London to Islamabad and vice versa in a lifestyle based simultaneously in both capitals, it made me think. Is it just the pandemic causing this disruption in lives of global citizens like me?. Or there is a larger plan in play to break existing trade/travel/tariffs(I like to call it 3T) patterns in a free world's lifestyles set in an era of globalization?. These queries led me to research for the logical answers.

The industrialization of Europe led by USA in post WWII era led to jobs boom helping bring back prosperity to the people of that part of the world. Western Capitalism based on free market economy led by USA defeated Eastern Communism based on state ownership of economy led by former USSR.

People got rich in the West and hence got choosy about laborious jobs. Combination of expensive cost of life in Western countries, cheap Asian labour force and free market economy moved the consumer industries to Asia. This made China become the factory of the world. It also caused major shifting of the wealth from Western hemisphere to Asia. Over a period of time, Asian countries, essentially China gained vast economic wealth. This phenomenon converted Western countries into consumer market for Chinese produce while their jobs market shifted to China/Asia. 

Chinese model of economy is based on a mix of Communism and Capitalism where earlier gets precedence over later. Revenues generated by state run businesses in a single party ruled mega economic empire provided Chinese Communist party with a global clout. China became practically a contender to US global hegemony as sole superpower of the world in post Cold War era.

However, China played very wisely so far preferring business over confrontation unlike USA which always went for confrontation for business. China formed regional alliances to counter US led global belligerence against it utilizing her economic clout. In the meanwhile China kept strengthening her defensive and offensive military capabilities in accordance with the post nuclear deterrence era. This era is also referred as the 6th Generation Warfare. Chinese copied the US led Western technologies/methods in this regard wherever it suited them, combining it with their own ingenuity. President Xi Jingping's Belt and Road project is part of the same Chinese ingenuity.

We are living in an era of post 5th Generation warfare during which balance was imposed by nuclear deterrence and proxy wars. The world is heading into the murky domain of  6th Generation Warfare. The contest for global hegemony will be decided continually through remotely controlled conflict zones using client states/non-state actors. Cyberspace warfare and microbiology/nanotechnology are the new and most potent weapons of 6th Generation Warfare. Knowledge acquired by data mining to define existing patterns like 3T benefiting opposition will be disrupted through subversion.    

3T (Trade/Travel/Tariffs) patterns around the world in a free market economy were set to enforce the rise of China as top global superpower surpassing USA. Globalization as it stood in very recent pre pandemic times was the greatest threat to the US led Western camp's economic/social superiority in the world. If remained unchecked, the stated rise of the Red Empire would have remained unstoppable on existing patterns.

 Covid-19 either proved to be a blessing in disguise for the US led Western camp or is part of their 6th Generation Warfare helping them to break and reshape global 3T and related (publicly unknown) patterns. Rampant hate crimes against the Chinese diaspora in the western countries and calls for boycott of Chinese products all seem part of a plan. Blaming China for spread of Covid19 by US leadership is being deliberately repeated. The conspiracy theories against Chinese tech companies citing security concerns led to cancellation of Chinese tech giant Huawei's business deals in the US and UK. Public allegations against China by President Trump coupled with an ever increasing trade and tariff war is all part of classic 6th Generation warfare. Diplomatic and military confrontations between China and US and her client states like India is obviously also part of this ongoing multidimensional warfare.

China is visibly responding by flexing her muscles in Asia and Africa both in economic and military terms. Belt and Road project is the answer China foresee to counter US camp's financial prowess. However, existing pandemic era business environments coupled with trade restrictions and tariffs imposed by Trump's America and Boris's Brexit will seriously cripple Chinese economy. 3T restrictions are aimed to divert existing business patterns ending spread of globalization and free market economy. Travel restrictions mean tourism will also take a hit. Tourism is offcourse another major source of shifting western wealth to the eastern countries.

European travel among itself is already back on track. Western camp will be essentially made to travel and trade within itself promoting the policy of looking inwards. Such an enforcement could have only been possible under the current scenario of Covid-19 related restrictions. This transition of bringing back the manufacturing hub to own camp/client states is already in progress. However it will not occur at a fast pace to offset market dynamics, but is designed to occur eventually after completion of requisite conditions for the purpose. The increase in cost of production will be covered by increasing tariffs/providing jobs.

Future belongs to regional alliances trading among themselves ending free market economy and the resultant globalization. All the major contenders in the global power dynamics understand this scenario. Ground developments like Chinese belt and road project, Brexit, US-China trade war and ensuing global alliances all indicate towards this shift. Resources however will be plundered on an existing pattern by whichever power/alliance possesses an advantage over that particular region.


In subsequent article I will analyse the impact of this 6th Generation Warfare on South Asia in particular.           







          

Why Pakistan Can Never Ditch The West

Pakistan has been forced to forge an all purpose alliance with China. The US geo strategic alliance with India to make the country a regional counterweight to China's growing power became an essential motivation for Pakistan to do so. India is Pakistan's erstwhile enemy ever since the partition of subcontinent by British into India and Pakistan in 1947. Both countries have fought numerous wars to date. India has fought an all out war with China as well in 1962. Kashmir remains the common bone of contention among the triangle. Until recently Kashmir enjoyed a special status being administratively controlled by their respective held areas between China, India and Pakistan. However Indian Government of Narendra Modi in its second term in power changed the special status of Kashmir and annexed the entire disputed territory held by them. Further to this the Indian Government's senior ministers made public statements to invade Pakistani administered Kashmir too which holds 60 Billion USD China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project being the flagship of President Xi Jingping's One Belt and One Road Initiative. China responded strongly to the Indian moves in Kashmir by occupying the Galwan Valley, an area claimed by India. This move allowed the Chinese Military to effectively put a blockade to Indian Army's MSR(Main Supply Route) to Siachin, an area where Indian and Pakistani Armies are involved in eyeball to eyeball combat since 1984. Siachin is also the only gateway for an Indian invasion to cut China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

While the western countries, mainly USA is actively engaged in a trade war with China, Pakistan is fast developing an interoperability with China in military and economic spheres. China and Pakistan enjoy deep rooted historical relationship. The bilateral ties are taking shape of military interoperability faced with common aggression by India. China made it possible for Pakistan not to isolate economically and militarily irrespective of full public onslaught by India. China came forward to support Pakistan when all odds were against the country.

Western world lead by US takes China as it's new enemy essentially because of US apprehensions about China. Irrespective an ensuing trade war, in an era of globalization there is no match still to Chinese productivity. China is fast developing Belt and Road project which will link the Chinese production lineup to the Europe/Asian markets without being dependent on US dominant shipping lanes. China-Pakistan alliance and economic corridor makes much more sense to the Pakistanis than any other prospect out there in the world under the circumstances.

Pakistani intelligentsia have made recent calls to boycott western countries in favour of China. This can be attributed to nothing more but a warning to the western world not to unnecessarily back India in her misadventures targeting Pakistan. Pakistan is as deeply linked to western world as it is to China. Huge Pakistani diaspora in the western world acts as economic, social and cultural lifeline between western world and Pakistan. Pakistani official language in practice is still English not Cantonese. Pakistan is more in tune with western capitals when it comes to the ideals of freedom of expression and democracy rather than Beijing. Pakistanis find it easier to practice their religion in Washington or London rather than Beijing or Shanghai. Same goes for food, culture, language and lifestyle choices. Pakistanis are still cautious about next generation of Chinese leadership which is growing up as single child policy children. This generation when in helm of affairs will never take NO for an answer from anyone having grown up as the only scion of the family. Having said that, if anyone is expected to be on the rite side of this generation in future would be the Pakistanis. 

It was Pakistan which linked the US diplomats to China back in the days. Pakistan will continue acting like the historical bridge between China and the western world. China is the next sole superpower of the world. USA has already lost this coveted status by waging meaningless wars for their corporations greed. China is the future leader of the world and while western countries find it a difficult prospect to cooperate directly with China, Pakistan is fast getting in a position to act as an intermediary state to facilitate this inevitable arrangement.

Western countries will continue to be the abode of choice for the Pakistanis. Family ties of Pakistani mainland with now third generation Pakistani diaspora in the western world will keep growing with time. China-Pakistan bilateral relations will also keep strengthening with ever increasing interoperability between the neighbouring countries. Pakistan will soon be in a position to become the global gateway to China's largest region that's Xinjiang. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as One Belt One Road global project's flagship aims to achieve just that and more. Pakistan with its unique connection to the western world and on ground link with China will play an important part in linking both western world and China.

In an interconnected world, no distance is too far, yet ground connections matters most for commerce and trade. Pakistan is China's ground connection to the western world and middle east in that way. Pakistan do not have to ditch either one for another rather become a connection between both.