CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR(CPEC)-LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

                               A continuation of article published earlier on the same subject (http://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2015/05/china-pakistan-economic-corridor-cpec.html)

After Iran's deadline to India for materialization of investment in their Chabahar port expired, Iran decided to go for  much more lucrative business opportunities by siding with China. Chabahar port is the direct strategic competition/alternative to Pakistan's Gawader deep sea port and India's only feasible alternative trade route to Afghanistan/Central Asia bypassing Pakistan. India's decision to invest in the development of Iranian port of Chabahar announced in May 2013 was however, spurred by the Chinese stakes in the Pakistan's Gawader port. India quintessentially forged an alliance with Iran to counter the rise of China and discredit Pakistan in the Asian pacific region through this strategic move in 2013.

The entire Indian game plan was however blunted partly by delay in the materialization of the promised investment at Chabahar by India being an economically non viable trade route compared to Pakistan's extensively developed ground route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. In the global free market economy and its highly competitive environment, choosing a trade route and its subsequent costs are detrimental to any business activity. These reasons constitute the lack of commitment/hesitation on part of India to invest in the Chabahar deep sea port. The Indian dreams to counter the rise of China becoming a counterweight in the region under the US wooing are nothing more than pipe dreams. (Also read http://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2016/02/indias-pipe-dreams-to-become-superpower.html).

In essence it is the 60 Billion US Dollars China-Iran trade deal signed between the supreme leaders of both countries in the last week of January 2016 comprising on 17 accords. These accords include cooperation on the revival of the old silk route known in China as the one belt, one road mega economic project of President Xi Jingping. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project of the Chinese one belt, one road venture. The Chinese prestige and repute is directly related to the success of this project, hence the commitment by China to this venture is paramount. The US led western corporate media has already declared the Chinese initiative as non viable under the political situation essentially created by the US misadventures in the region. Such media reports are part of the info wars chartered under the US desire to stop the rise of the Red Empire. (Also read http://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-rise-of-red-empire-regional-impacts.html). 

The two biggest challenges to CPEC have been effectively countered by Pakistan in the meanwhile. The security threat to the CPEC is being addressed by raising a special security division by Pakistani Army under a three star General. This security division will exclusively provide protection to the CPEC in the entire breadth of Pakistan while the cooperation of all remaining security forces/law enforcement agencies will also be at their disposal. Pakistani Army has proven its worth fighting against the multidimensional threats, including internal militancy and foreign funded insurgency. The experienced and determined Pakistan Army can be counted upon to provide credible security to the CPEC through its newly raised CPEC special security division. On the political front the various differences on the infrastructure of CPEC and its related economic zones have also been resolved by all the major political entities of Pakistan. The consensus has been achieved by direct assurances by the Chinese officials in conjunction with the Pakistani Army to the various political stake holders that their just demands regarding the CPEC will be met. The essential bone of contention on the political front was the central Punjab concentric route of the CPEC by the current government of Nawaz Sharif. The issue has been resolved by reverting the CPEC route to the original plan which links all the provinces of Pakistan to the CPEC including the Himalayan region of  Gilgit-Baltistan. The fast paced construction of the CPEC linking all the major economic nods of Pakistan to the said project is well under way. 

Courtesy;Wall Street Journal

Under the Chinese narrative it is only imperative for Iran to join the CPEC linking the Iranian economy with the Chinese one road, one belt project. India needs stop dreaming, awaken from her slumber on American beds, and settle long standing political disputes like Kashmir with Pakistan and Aksai Chin with China, which is not likely in the near future. However, by doing so, India would join the humongous economic benefits to its starving population by directly linking her huge economy to China, Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond via Chinese one road, one belt.

CPEC is the primary singular focus of Pakistani State with all her stake holders completely on board now. The assurances provided by Pakistani security establishment to China supersedes any political uncertainty which may or may not arise in regards to the CPEC. Infrastructure works on the CPEC are well under progress by the Chinese engineers and Pakistan's Army Engineers led organizations such as FWO which is known for undertaking civil infrastructure projects in harsh environments.

Recently constructed tunnel on the CPEC at Atta Abad GB

There is active opposition to the project by India and some of her Gulf/Western partners who are not interested in seeing the CPEC succeed owing to their own vested interests. However, all such opposition is being successfully blunted by the Pakistani security establishment which is spearheading the CPEC construction operations. 

Pakistani Army Chief Gen Raheel driving Prime Minister Nawaz on the inspection of CPEC construction progress in the province of Baluchistan, Pakistan.

The control of the Gawader deep sea port has already been officially handed over directly to China.  Vast infrastructure developments are taking place in Gawader, undertaken by Chinese engineers.  The Gawader port links the Chinese mainland to the Persian gulf through the CPEC. The CPEC through Gawader provides an alternative trustworthy route of 5000 KM round the year to Chinese energy imports from the Gulf, as compared to the 16000 KM politically precarious, weather restricted sea route currently under use by China. 

Chinese commissioned developments at Gwader deep sea port

The CPEC possess the inherent potential of linking China with the already constructed RCD Highway which links Pakistan to Turkey via Iran. The opportunities for regional trade and commerce are immense in nature after the Iran-China trade agreement in post economic sanctions in Iran. The future of the CPEC seems to be bright and prosperous keeping in view the ground developments.  

      

            

INDIA'S PIPE DREAMS TO BECOME A SUPERPOWER

India's middle class happens to be a very vocal and prominent population inside India and abroad. However, once it comes to their point of view regarding India's hegemonic designs to become a superpower, the same class is mostly delusional at best. Educated, middle class Indians have somehow developed an impression that their country is a rising superpower in the world. This false perception is fueled mostly by their media and the "Bollywood" film industry, but the real reason instrumental for stroking the Indian egos are the US led western designs which have a desire for India to be a counterweight to the imminent rise of China in the Asia Pacific and subsequently the world. Indians are being led to believe through fabricated economic data by the US economic monitors and their own government that they are growing even faster then China. The Indian middle class are already beating their chests and shouting victory whereas the reality is the total opposite if not a mere illusion. Famous Indian award winning economic commentator Andy Mukherjee , whilst discussing the Indian economic growth in the Reuters US edition published on June 5, 2015 stated:

" India's GDP growth is now one-third a statistical mirage"

     

(http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/06/05/india-gdp-growth-is-one-third-statistical-illusion/)

India's arrogance is essentially based on these mirages of economic data upon which red flags have already been raised by the likes of Nobel laureate economist Angus Deaton. The Indians are already dreaming of being the regional hegemonic power whereas the majority of their population is extremely poor and undernourished. Angus Deaton researched the poverty and inequality in India and clearly stated that Indian economic data projecting growth is vastly falsified and inequality and poverty is rampant is India, he went on to say that under the present economic system in India, the problem is only increasing.

Indian middle class prefers living in a fool's paradise with boasted chanting of  "Jai Hind" while choosing to remain oblivious to their fellow country men, "Fifty per cent " of whose growth has been stunted, mostly due to malnutrition. Similarly, fifty per cent of Indian women have anemia for the same reason and fifty per cent of Indians have terrible academic underachievement.

( http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/16/amartya-sen-india-dirty-fighter).

The globally respected Noble laureate Indian economist Amartya Sen stated:

" Half of all Indians have no toilet. In Delhi when you build a new condominium there are lots of planning requirements but none relating to the servants having toilets. It's a combination of class, caste and gender discrimination. It's absolutely shocking. Poor people have to use their ingenuity and for women that can mean only being able to relieve themselves after dark with all the safety issues that entails. This is India's defective development"

Amartya Sen further states in the same article that was published in the Guardian:

"There are reasons for India to hang its head in shame. Alongside the success, there have been gigantic failures. India will prick up its ears when comparisons with China are made, but the comparison is not just tactical. China invested in massive expansion of education and healthcare in the 70's so that by 1979, life expectancy was 68 while in India it was only 54."

The Indian middle class is busy painting flowery predictions for India's rise as a global superpower whilst the reality in India is extremely embarrassing. Even the frequently boasted claims about the Indian Military by the educated middle class Indians as a force to reckon with are as absurd as their fabricated claims of economic growth. The Indian Military power is encircled by China and Pakistan with credible nuclear deterrence and India is powerless to do anything about it. The Indian Military is not capable of taking on it's nuclear armed powerful neighbours irrespective of all the bravado by the educated classes of India. The Indian's may brag about taking on Pakistan inside its sovereign territory after the accusations they made on Pakistan of carrying out the terror attacks in Mumbai and Pathan Kot, but the possibility of any such eventuality is highly unlikely. Any misadventure by the Indian Military inside Pakistan would provoke a reaction which would ensure a MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) scenario under the nuclear weapons regime in South Asia. Same holds true for their other bigger and much more powerful neighbour, China.

It is extremely necessary for the Indian bourgeois to be aware that their dreams of becoming a superpower or confronting China and rest of their enemies are extremely unrealistic and a mere illusion under the US enchantment. The Indians need to take on the almost impossible task of economic and racial inequality threatening the very fabric of their society. Their main concentration needs to be on eliminating mass and rampant hunger and poverty in India rather than pipe dreaming about regional hegemony. It is paramount to say that they have an urgent need to promote peace and avoid arrogance for ultimately peace is the only logical way forward leading to prosperity.    

The Impact Of Russia In Middle East Power Politics

Putin might be in thick soup at his home ground in the face of economic sanctions by the west, but he surely has made an impression in the Middle East. The Russian military intervention in Syria to support the Bashr Al Asaad regime proved to be game changer and turned the tables in the favour of the Syrian government. ISIS is the enemy of choice, for all the rite reasons which made this Russian intervention digestible by the US/Western forces, although the said digestion is enforced by the Russians who gave the US/West no other choice. Russians went a step further by warning the Arab patrons of ISIS, reportedly the Arab Monarchs led by the House of Saud to be bombed to stone ages if they did not stop the material support of the ISIS. To top it all, Russians surprised the entire world powers by forming an intelligence sharing alliance against ISIS with their erstwhile enemies, the Taliban in Afghanistan. Russians are warming up to the Pakistanis as well while Pakistan finalized various weapons sale deal to include attack helicopters with Russia. The military ties of Russia with Pakistan have intensified in recent days. All these developments tells a tale of the shift in the balance of power in the Middle East where Russia is emerging as an active power broker with whom powers which matter in the Middle East are willing to cooperate.

Putin regime at home is facing an intense political situation where the western economic sanctions are paralyzing the Russian progress and her economy. However, historically the Russian people have proven to be immune from foreign enforced pressures and Russian middle class is too proud to give in to the US bullying. The worst case scenario may see a change of guards in the Kremlin, but Russian external policies, in particular regards the Middle East is least likely to be changed. The Russian foreign policy in Middle East serves as the pivotal protection afforded to the Russian national interests where Moscow's hold on the energy rich Central Asian Republics and her key allies in the Middle East rests upon the show of strength by Russia in the face of US/NATO ambitions in the Middle East which now directly threatens the allies if Russia.

Russian military action in Syria targeting the forces opposed to the Assad regime in particular the ISIS sends across a strong message to the entire globe in particular NATO. The "New Cold War" has reached the Middle East, and this time Russia is going to take on any threat to her national interests at any cost. Russian allies in the Middle East are also being provided a reaffirmation of their hopes they rests on Russia while they support her.

Having said that, it would be very interesting to observe the extent of Russian resilience and strength of their commitment in the Middle East. US/Western economic sanctions to punish Russia for her muscle flexing in firstly eastern Europe and now Middle East is hurting Russia pretty bad. After all, it takes money to fund wars and Russia is running out of steam on that end.

The battle winning factor in this complete scenario would be the support of China, for or against Russia which would decide the future course of action for Russia. The Russo-Sino alliance is thus far going strong and both the countries have much more to gain from supporting each other then loose. However, the Chinese economy is deeply linked with the western markets in particular the US. An open confrontation with the US/West is simply not an option for China. However, through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and bilateral Russo-Sino alliance, the Chinese will have to support the Russians adventures and may even have to bank roll them. The Russian military technology is far superior then that of China and compatible with the Western war machinery. If push comes to shove, China may find an ally in no one else but Russia for military support against the US/Western designs to contain the rise of "The Red Empire". It is thus in the Chinese interests to support the Russian foreign policy and if that may be the case, then Middle East will be forced to give way to the rise of Russian influence.

Chinese allies in the Middle East and Chinese influences may continue to work in collaboration with the US but wont pose hindrance to the rise of Russian power which will fill up the vacuum being created by the periodic US withdrawal from the region. Although the said scenario may not suit the particular ambitions of the most ferocious bully in the Middle East, that is Israel, but I have a gut feeling that Israel may find common grounds with the Russians to work it all out in the long run after all. For now, it all depends upon what Putin chooses to do next at his homeland, however, the Russian foreign policy in Middle East and its effects are here to stay and last for a very long time to come.