While the major media attention is diverged towards the tussle going on between the Geo/Jang media group and the Pakistani military establishment, there is a storm brewing in a different horizon. Two days from now, Imran Khan and Dr Tahir ul Qadri are leading the phase II of the public movement started by the latter to seek the direly needed constitutional reforms, putting a cap on the malpractices in a fractured society called Pakistan. Last time round, the show proved to be nerve wrecking for the PPP government, but the flexibility and shrewdness of Asif Ali Zardari and Co, averted the greatest chance Pakistan ever had to break the shackles of a dysfunctional system serving the interest of select few. The previous Chief Justice of Pakistan, Chaudhry Iftikhar Ahmad played the pivotal role in support of the Zardari regime by issuing an arrest warrant of PPP Prime Minister Raja Perwaiz Ashraf in a billion rupees power scam during the protest. This cooled down the protest, which was incomplete anyway after the refusal of "Imran Khan" to join forces with Dr Qadri while he wanted to try doing it the legal cum supposedly rite way. The election rigging, particularly in Punjab and places at Baluchistan and Sindh that followed, and the deliberate delays to address these issues by the Judiciary even after an year, forced Mr Khan to join hands with Dr Qadri this time round.
Followers of Dr Qadri are the affluent middle class of Pakistan and those who are linked with his religious preaching network. There was no cause of civil unrest therefore last time round, while Dr Qadri was also careful not to cross the "Red Line" being aware that he lacked the requisite force and to avoid bloodshed. But the followers of Imran Khan include the populous youth of Pakistan, which is emotionally charged and can cause a revolution if required by storming the government infrastructure. Both these cadres of society are coming together this time at the Islamabad Constitutional Avenue to demand the most needed constitutional amendments promulgating an end to injustice and inequality or at least a start of the same.
Under the circumstances, the most likely potent power segment deciding the outcome of the mass protest planned on May 11, would be the Pakistan Army. How and why is obvious under the reality check at Pakistani politics, counter arguments are just for the sake of arguments.
The most interesting analysis of the situation is to appreciate the role Army would play under the pre and post May 11 scenario. Pre game is set as being alleged by the government circles and their allies , where the ISI, is helping both the popular leaders to gain momentum. But these allegations may it be true to an extent still subsides under the ill performance of the government for the first year after promising the public, loads more in the poll for the initial months in power. Power/Electricity shortages in the country and the rampant terrorism are the leading causes of prevailing unrest. The Sharif government went back on its pledges they made in the exuberance towards coming to the power corridors of Pakistan. They managed that, but are unable to deliver on their promises rather gave an all together new time frame spread over a decade it seems. The Pakistan Army realizes and wants to maintain a functional democracy in the country for the larger benefit of the state. But the rigidness of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in certain matters are affecting the civil-military relations like the Musharraf case and many more issues, causing an uneasy friction between the Sharif government and the military leadership which assesses the pulse of the Army Juniors commanders and are forced to act accordingly. The bizarre drama being played by the Indian backed Jang/Geo group against the military establishment and its premier intelligence outfit, the ISI is causing huge damage to the Nawaz Sharif government's repute among the vast ranks of the Army because of the obvious lack of action against the Jang/Geo media group. The appointment of blue eyed zombies and the resultant corruption cries murder being read by the resourceful Army Officers. Nawaz Sharif wants a Turkish styled democracy and prosecution of the military officers involved in the so called de railing of the democracy in the past. Reality check, Pakistan and its democracy viz a viz its performance is far from anything the Turks achieved and displayed with pride before taking on the Turkish Armed Forces officers. The Turkish people supported their democratic government in the cause after they practically benefited from the performance of their democratic government. Whereas, at Pakistan, its all together a different ball game. Inept and bad governance is top of the public nuisance issues besides nepotism, corruption and injustice due to either capacity problems or ill intentions of the ruling elite. Yes Sir Mr Prime Minister, we are no Turkey....not as yet at least.
The Pakistan Army wants just that, what the masses demand, an end to the unjust system which lacks accountability of the powerful lot and in the garb "regain the grounds lost" towards the end of Musharraf regime in the power dynamics of Pakistan.
If Imran Khan decides to go violent in case of an eventuality which is extremely possible if a clash between the protesters and government takes place at Islamabad, or if he is unable to command the emotional youth, there are all the likely chances of an emergency being declared at the Capital and surrounding areas by the government with Army taking over the capital. It is assessed by this scribe that in such a scenario the Army won't take over power but will regain their lost grounds in the power dynamics of the country they lost to the Judiciary and part civilian government at the end of Musharraf regime and would be able to bend the stiff neck of Mr Sharif. For the masses, if they are successful in maintaining their peaceful protest and paralyze the capital for a week or so as planned. The government will have to budge and agree to serious constitutional reforms to include electoral reforms. In all as I see it, and agree with my respected friend Raja Junaid Nasir Khan, it the "beginning of the end" of the Sharif clan and his brand of politics in Pakistan......................
Followers of Dr Qadri are the affluent middle class of Pakistan and those who are linked with his religious preaching network. There was no cause of civil unrest therefore last time round, while Dr Qadri was also careful not to cross the "Red Line" being aware that he lacked the requisite force and to avoid bloodshed. But the followers of Imran Khan include the populous youth of Pakistan, which is emotionally charged and can cause a revolution if required by storming the government infrastructure. Both these cadres of society are coming together this time at the Islamabad Constitutional Avenue to demand the most needed constitutional amendments promulgating an end to injustice and inequality or at least a start of the same.
Under the circumstances, the most likely potent power segment deciding the outcome of the mass protest planned on May 11, would be the Pakistan Army. How and why is obvious under the reality check at Pakistani politics, counter arguments are just for the sake of arguments.
The most interesting analysis of the situation is to appreciate the role Army would play under the pre and post May 11 scenario. Pre game is set as being alleged by the government circles and their allies , where the ISI, is helping both the popular leaders to gain momentum. But these allegations may it be true to an extent still subsides under the ill performance of the government for the first year after promising the public, loads more in the poll for the initial months in power. Power/Electricity shortages in the country and the rampant terrorism are the leading causes of prevailing unrest. The Sharif government went back on its pledges they made in the exuberance towards coming to the power corridors of Pakistan. They managed that, but are unable to deliver on their promises rather gave an all together new time frame spread over a decade it seems. The Pakistan Army realizes and wants to maintain a functional democracy in the country for the larger benefit of the state. But the rigidness of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in certain matters are affecting the civil-military relations like the Musharraf case and many more issues, causing an uneasy friction between the Sharif government and the military leadership which assesses the pulse of the Army Juniors commanders and are forced to act accordingly. The bizarre drama being played by the Indian backed Jang/Geo group against the military establishment and its premier intelligence outfit, the ISI is causing huge damage to the Nawaz Sharif government's repute among the vast ranks of the Army because of the obvious lack of action against the Jang/Geo media group. The appointment of blue eyed zombies and the resultant corruption cries murder being read by the resourceful Army Officers. Nawaz Sharif wants a Turkish styled democracy and prosecution of the military officers involved in the so called de railing of the democracy in the past. Reality check, Pakistan and its democracy viz a viz its performance is far from anything the Turks achieved and displayed with pride before taking on the Turkish Armed Forces officers. The Turkish people supported their democratic government in the cause after they practically benefited from the performance of their democratic government. Whereas, at Pakistan, its all together a different ball game. Inept and bad governance is top of the public nuisance issues besides nepotism, corruption and injustice due to either capacity problems or ill intentions of the ruling elite. Yes Sir Mr Prime Minister, we are no Turkey....not as yet at least.
The Pakistan Army wants just that, what the masses demand, an end to the unjust system which lacks accountability of the powerful lot and in the garb "regain the grounds lost" towards the end of Musharraf regime in the power dynamics of Pakistan.
If Imran Khan decides to go violent in case of an eventuality which is extremely possible if a clash between the protesters and government takes place at Islamabad, or if he is unable to command the emotional youth, there are all the likely chances of an emergency being declared at the Capital and surrounding areas by the government with Army taking over the capital. It is assessed by this scribe that in such a scenario the Army won't take over power but will regain their lost grounds in the power dynamics of the country they lost to the Judiciary and part civilian government at the end of Musharraf regime and would be able to bend the stiff neck of Mr Sharif. For the masses, if they are successful in maintaining their peaceful protest and paralyze the capital for a week or so as planned. The government will have to budge and agree to serious constitutional reforms to include electoral reforms. In all as I see it, and agree with my respected friend Raja Junaid Nasir Khan, it the "beginning of the end" of the Sharif clan and his brand of politics in Pakistan......................
