CASE STUDY -IMPACT OF IP GAS PIPELINE AND HANDING OVER OF GAWADER DEEP SEAPORT TO CHINA ON PAKISTANI FOREIGN POLICY
(By ADIL FAROOQ RAJA)
BACKGROUND
The Pakistani Government's move spearheaded by President Asif Ali Zardari few months ago of handing over the Gawader deep seaport to China and singing the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline deal is by far the boldest initiative by the Pakistan People's Party leadership having deep rooted impact on the foreign policy of the country. The decision is both strategic and controversial in essence. The well known opposition of the world’s sole superpower towards any business deals with Iran due to their historic anti American sentiments after the Islamic Revolution led by Imam Khomeini and the ongoing drive to achieve nuclear power is an established fact. Any opportunity providing Iran with a breath of fresh air in the shape of monetary/economic benefit is surely to anger the USA.
Pakistan is facing its independent history’s worst power crisis since 2009 severely affecting the economy adversely and livelihood of citizens at large. Pakistan has the installed power generation capacity of 19,505 Mega watts (MW) against a peak demand of 19,000 MW at present as per the Ministry of Water and Power of Pakistan. However, 12,580 MW i-e, 65%, of this installed power generation capability is based upon fossil fuels. The rising prices of oil at international level viz a viz “circular debt of Pakistan” have handicapped the power generation sector of the country to produce at their optimum capacity. The circular debt is mainly on the books of the energy sector of Pakistan. As per the Planning Commission report on the “circular debt”, it stands at staggering Rs 872 billion at the end of last fiscal year. As per the said report, poor governance, delays in terrif determination, fuel price methodology, poor revenue collection and delayed/incomplete payments by the Finance Ministry are the chief causes of piling up “circular debt” which has crippled the power generation sector of Pakistan. To survive this immense energy deficit Pakistan either has to generate this Rs 872 billion amount or find fossil fuel source at the earliest to feed its power generation machinery. The Nawaz Sharif government according top priority to the issue paid a handsome Rs 300 Billion to the power companies but it didn't help to ease the power cuts much. The natural gas planned to be imported through the IP gas pipeline is seen as the quickest and most handy solution for Pakistani fossil fuel requirements for power generation. Under the US and Suadi pressure for the time being the Nawaz government is not practically pursuing the project, however they realize that it is the only long term solution to the power woes of Pakistan with negligible carbon emissions, unlike other planned projects. Nawaz Sharif will have to tackle the US and Suadi pressure which he is historically capable of handling considering the decision to go nuclear openly in 1998 under intense domestic pressure.
While Pakistan Energy Watch [1] blames the government for not allowing the exploration of natural gas block at Sui for last 16 years, the IP gas pipeline can greatly benefit the Pakistani energy sector directly influencing the economy positively, in a short duration. [2]The gas that the country will be importing from Iran would allow the generation of additional 4,123 MW of electricity at cheaper rate. It will also restore the 2,232 MW of idle thermal power generation capacity with the diversion of about of about 406 mmcfd, leaving 344 mmcfd for other usage such as manufacturing fertilizers and supplying gas to domestic consumers. While Pakistan would pay Iran USD 3 billion an year, it would reduce its oil imports by USD 5.3 billion, resulting in net annual reduction in energy imports by USD 2.3 billion. The figures are too good to ignore and opt for the costly and time consuming conversion of gas fired power plants into eco non friendly coal power option under consideration by the new government at Islamabad under influence of Suadi-US pawns.
The benediction of IP gas pipeline project for Pakistani economy is of the highest value it seems, but the USA is keeping no secrets of her full scale diplomatic offensive to sabotage the project creating a serious dilemma for the Pakistani Foreign Policy managers.
Handing of Gwadar deep sea port to China and is yet another soar swill for the USA to handle. Gawadar, located at southwestern coast of Pakistan has the potential to strategically impact Straits of Hormuz, through which more than 13 million barrels of oil passes from the Middle East to rest of the world. [3]With the financial assistance of China, the port was programmed to develop in four phases. Phase-I of the port has already been completed in 2006 with the initial investment of USD 248 million that included three births and one ramp 600-meter long capable of accommodating several ships at a time. Phase-II (2007-present) with USD 932 million is still underway, that will have 4 container berths, 1 bulk cargo terminal (capacity: 100,000 DWT ships), 1 Grain Terminal, 1 Ro-Ro Terminal, 2 Oil Terminals (capacity: 200,000 DWT ships each) and approach channel. Phase-III and IV consists of network of roads finally to be connected with China through the Indus Highway. Under an agreement, Pakistan, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are already committed to developing extensive railroad links from Central Asia and the Chinese province of Sinkiang to the Arabian Sea Coast. Mr Nawaz Sharif is all too eager to go ahead and complete the said route. The geographical and strategic location makes the Gwadar Deep Seaport at a much advantageous position than other competing ports, like Rashid and Jebel Ali ports of Dubai, Salalah Port of Oman, Bandar Abbas and Chahbahar ports of Iran.
This development at Pakistan in the shape of Gawadar deep seaport as and when fully materializes has the potential of bringing Pakistan at the global economic forefront as the most viable gateway to landlocked Central Asia. The trade can be two ways as the Central Asian Republics are loaded with fossil fuels yet to be fully exploited and exported. In any such scenario, there will be no better option than Pakistani ports to commute this “black gold” of energy to the vast world. This alone puts the Pakistani economic future forecasts to be shining bright and high. Energy hungry Chinese economy can do away with the precarious South China Sea route for their major energy imports in particular from Middle East and use the Pakistani route from Gawadar instead. Such a scenario will make Pakistan’s importance to China of strategic nature enforcing the Chinese to help promote stability and peace in the country in particular and the whole region in general.
However, the Chinese presence at Gawadar provides them not only vital influence over the strategic Strait of Hormuz but also a forward listening post to monitor the US/Western military activities in the Middle East. It also affords them a forward base to intervene any undesired maneuver militarily within no time. This and the Chinese government offer to provide the much needed finances for IP gas pipeline project of USD 500 million has made the Americans to lose their sleeps at nights. The US is hence, an all out diplomatic offensive which will deploy their clandestine services as well to put hurdles in the way of the above mentioned developments at Pakistan.
This position presents foreign policy challenges for Pakistan with a magnitude rarely encountered by them before. This paper studies, how the presented situation impacts the Pakistani foreign policy? And what measures would be/needs to be taken by Pakistani foreign policy managers in order to deal with the said issues? which are at hand and will emerge as the US/Western bloc’s drive to isolate Pakistan gain momentum as a reprimand to her daring foreign policy initiative………………….
ANALOGY OF BOTH PROJECTS AND COMBINED IMPORTANCE/BENEDICTION FOR THE STAKE HOLDERS
There are geographical, political and financial analogies in these projects for all three states involved i-e, China, Iran and Pakistan. The Chinese government’s decision to finance the cash starved IP gas pipeline project by pledging USD 500 million initially only confirms this hypothesis.
[2]The
import of gas from Iran has a strategic importance for the region. Once the
super power bluff has been called, India facing energy crunch may change its
mind and rejoin what was originally scheduled to be Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI)
pipeline. This would create further incentives for Pakistan and India to
resolve mutual conflicts. It would thus become a peace pipeline. Pakistan could
even become a conduit for bridging the gulf energy to China, gaining
significant economic benefits from the deal.
The above
assertion only partly correlates with the ground realities. Chances of the
Indians joining aboard or being allowed to do so are a far off call, but can be
sold as a foreign policy gimmick to the world by the Pakistanis. The Indians
fell for the Indo_US civil nuclear energy deal which has strictly handicapped
them to benefit from the Iranian gas resources anytime in immediate future at
least. The Chinese interest is directed
more towards obtaining access to the huge Iranian oil reserves through Pakistan,
critical for her energy hungry economy.
Sanctions
plagued Iranian economy desperately requires a fresh economic breather by
selling their most valuable produce, the petroleum products. International
partners are hard to find with the exception of those who dare risk the wrath
of USA and her western cronies. Pakistan and China can become a trusted
business partners in this scenario who are willing to go ahead with the project
and actively supporting it. Though the Gawadar deep seaport project adversely affects
the value of Iran’s Bandar Abbas and Chahbahar ports, however, its potential to
act as an international conduit for Iranian energy exports and the impact on
USA whose influence in the region would be curtailed by the Chinese presence at
Gawadar makes the Iranian accept the project.
Pakistan’s
energy deficit power sector most immediately requires the life support it will
get in the shape of the Iranian gas. The Gawadar deep seaport project will not
only bring prosperity and economic growth to the country but also has the
potential to help promote stability and peace in its troubled province of
Baluchistan. The resultant trade and foreign direct investment in the aftermath
of Gawadar project’s completion and operation will greatly benefit Pakistan as
a whole. The Chinese military presence at Gawadar in the pretext of protecting
their assets has been sanctioned by Pakistan. This move smartly corners India,
which with all its military might and newly found love affair with the USA has,
so far been unable to do anything but anxiously observe the developments at
Gawadar and IP gas pipeline project. India irrespective of her clandestine
support for the militancy at Baluchistan in order to destabilize Pakistan and
in particular Baluchistan has been unable to stop the proceedings there. The
Indian opposition to the Gawadar project is obvious as it puts the Chinese
right at their throats, ready to cut it in times of open hostilities. This suit
the Pakistanis busy in the “war within” against militancy and fighting the
hostile state’s sponsored mercenaries to keep the Indians at bay while they are
engaged in 4th generation low intensity conflict with Pakistan.
The strategic move of the Chinese takeover of Gawader deep
Sea port of Pakistan is not a surprise for the Pakistanis but has stunned many
around the globe. This move indicates the breaking of the protective shell
China was under while focusing on internal growth. This move also indicates the
fluxing of Chinese muscles at the regional geopolitics affecting the
global balance of power. The move combined with the change of Chinese
leadership indicates the paradigm shift in Chinese strategy and doctrine being
rightly hyped around the globe as a game changer. The move have made many a
stomach churned in India, UAE and to the greatest extent left a very
bad taste in the mouth of the Americans. The PRC for the first time ever
in her independent history is flexing its muscles beyond immediate
borders with the Gawadar take over. For the Chinese it's both a matter of
the critical energy corridor for their economy importing energy/oil
from Middle East/ Iran through the Pakistani route and the strategic
influence over the region. Highly interesting to note are the stakes for China
in these projects which are not only economic but directly questions Chinese credibility and repute as a
global power directly linked to the success or failure of Gwadar/Pakistani venture. Gawadar being located in the
Pakistani province of Baluchistan, which also hosts the IP gas pipeline project,
has direct bearing on the former. The
situation hence imposes upon the Chinese a level of commitment and efforts
of highest degree. China has historically proven to be a dedicated ally of
Pakistan against all odds. The Gawadar episode is yet another feather in the
cap of Sino-Pak strategic alliance. This also helps explain the Chinese
investments in the IP gas pipeline project as well.
This is
obviously a scenario not restricted to USA’s so called non proliferation goals
for the world stopping Iran to go nuclear but is an issue far more complex and
deep rooted than it seems at the exterior. The US dominance as the sole
superpower is what, that is at stake here. The US hence, will put up a match
with all its diplomatic might to defeat the designs of China, Iran and
Pakistan, stopping short of an open conflict, which the US cannot afford to get
into with all three states combined spearheaded by China.
BLOWBACK ON PAKISTAN - CRITICAL CHALLENGES FOR FOREIGN POLICY
Following salient hurdles can prove to be serious issues for not only the on ground implementation of the projects but also become the litmus test for the Pakistani foreign policy managers:-
Ø Foremost are the US threats of imposing sanctions on Pakistan if the latter keeps on pursuing the IP gas pipeline project.
Ø The use of covert tactics to thwart both IP gas pipeline and Gawadar deep seaport project by the hostile elements. These elements most definitely include the foreign non-state actors deploying 4th generation warfare at Pakistan by financially supporting mercenary outfits like the Baloch National Army(BNA), Anti Shia militant organizations and clandestine services of the hostile states. All efforts to sabotage these projects will be carried out by directly affected states as discussed earlier through all means possible, diplomatic or other.[4] The enemy in Baluchistan is neither the Baloch nor the Pakistan Army, but foreign hostile forces and their allies. The problem in Baluchistan is local sense of deprivation, alienation, grievances; cycle of violence, under development of a sparse demography spread over vast spaces and of course Geopolitics. Many Baloch claim to be fighting for their rights, a mini minority is either backed by foreign powers or seek their intervention. There is already a diplomatic war underway on the behest of these foreign hostile forces against Balochistan with a direction to interrupt the Gawadar and now IP gas pipeline project. Brigadier Nadir Mir in his book “Gawadar on the Global Chessboard” goes on to explain the plot as : Sinister forces appeared at work to sever Pakistani and Iranian Baluchistan (called Seistan). This balkanization agenda is part of a larger Geopolitical design. An appropriate West Asian Strategy is being chiseled by hegemonic powers. Reportedly Nurudin Mengal from Pakistan and Naseer Balodi from Iran in a three day session recently briefed the EU Parliament. Both launched a tirade against Pakistan and Iran, plus pleaded for foreign intervention, (A La Libya, NATO style intervention?) Before that US Congress had introduced a bill to sever Baluchistan from Pakistan. Coming on its heels a UN mission on Baluchistan had even suggested disciplinary action against military officers for alleged excesses. These may be the contours of a foreign intervention case.
Ø This scenario will create the described major litmus test for the Pakistani diplomats to walk a tightrope as it is likely to unfold into.
Ø Successive Pakistani governments in post Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto era have banked upon the House of Saud’s as their principal patrons with regards to both domestic and foreign policies issues. On the other hand the established Persian-Saudi rivalry over geopolitical influence and sectarian issues is an open secret. Close US ties with the Saudi rulers and the former’s conflict with Iran is also a known fact. Under the plot an all out effort must be expected by Saudi Arabia to disrupt the IP gas pipeline project. More than any other hurdle, keeping the deep influence of the Saudis in Pakistan and the Sunni Islamic world, arises yet another fragile foreign policy complication which must be handled with extreme care.
Ø Political will of Pakistani leadership will be tested under the intense pressure of powerful players who are affected by these projects in the West and Middle East. The political leaders will have to extend ownership to these decisions at all international forums for which foreign policy managers of Pakistan will have to prepare them beforehand.
Ø The role of corporate media and its effects on the whole world as a global village cannot be over emphasized. Unfortunately, the control of this corporate media is in the hands of few powerful elite, who mostly belong to the US/Western bloc. Diplomatic war backed by the corporate media at global level to malign these projects will be a most likely predicament needs troubleshooting at the earliest. Such a propaganda is already on the air trying to pose Balochistan province of Pakistan hosting both, Gawadar and IP gas pipeline projects as unstable and portraying it as a “land of the oppressed”.[4] A part of the so called liberal media (foreign funded) in Pakistan and liberal puppets living on foreign dole are already blaming the Pakistani State. These Trojan Horse tactics in the information age smack of shaping the battle field. They aim to demonize Army, ISI, divide the people of Pakistan, create political confusion, galvanize terrorists so that mayhem abounds leading to a paralysis of state. After defaming and psychologically isolating the Army, ISI; the stage would be set for a Unilateral Declaration of Independence by a few foreign sponsored Baloch. Foreign forces could then be employed in intervention of Baluchistan
Ø Plans must be in hands by Pakistani diplomatic corps to comprehensively address this propaganda in coordination and cooperation with various segments of our own media/academicians and other resources.
Ø Plans to answer and satisfy legitimate concerns of affected countries in the region/globe and pacify their opposition to these projects should also form part of readily available solutions to the presented challenges for our foreign policy.
ANALYSIS OF THE PRESENTED CHALLENGES/SUGGESTED RESPONSE
It is a million dollar question and if we keep the inflation in view a billion dollar question as to, if? Keeping in view the proposed US/NATO pullout in 2014, the western bloc is in a position to impose any sanctions on Pakistan. Pakistan provides the easiest way out for trillion dollars worth military hardware and related equipment of the US/NATO out of Afghanistan. The surety of Pakistani military establishment for the safe exit of the said hardware is also of vital importance for the US. Besides for any durable solution at Afghanistan post 2014, and the US/NATO maintaining a physical presence in the country, Pakistan’s support is critical. Threatening to pose sanctions of any kind on Pakistan by the USA therefore is far different a scenario than actually imposing them on ground. Annoying Pakistan at this critical juncture and apropos USA’s future designs for the region the chances of actual imposition of US/Western sanctions on Pakistan is therefore, a very remote possibility. It is and will remain only “tough talk” for foreseeable future. Pakistani diplomats will come under pressure at all international forums influenced by the US/EU; however, this can be handled by responding in typical red tape diplomatic manner with sugar coated niceties. The case of Pakistan is very strong on legitimate grounds of acute energy shortage hurting the economic and social stability of the nuclear armed country. The same presentation should suffice for our diplomatic corps making their case for the proposed projects.
The Chinese influx due to the Gawadar project should be defended in aid of Sino foreign policy managers. The huge investment of the PRC, their credibility as a regional power at stake and the economic benefits of the Gawadar originated routes leading to Chinese main land are argumentations enough to convince the Chinese to take the lead role in confronting any foreign intervention at international and regional forums against the projects understudy. The Chinese International position with the veto power at the UN Security Council must be taken maximum benefit from in forming a favourable foreign policy response in opposition to the Gawadar and IP gas pipeline projects. The mere Chinese economic clout in the USA is enough to keep the latter at bay.
The clandestine hostile activities through the Saudi funded anti shia militant and political fanatics, Indian sponsored, US supported BLA and alike mercenaries is already underway. Their wrath of naked terror on the Pakistani shia community in particular and all of the country is unfolding drastically. It has hit the capital city of Balochistan hard and furiously resulting in hundreds of innocent deaths and heavy bloodshed. However, it has again failed like it’s precedence to break the Pakistanis will.
The "punishment taking ability" of Pakistani state in general and its public in particular and their response to the nefarious designs of the hostile actors is tremendous. The foreign hostile forces are clueless when it comes at calculating the breaking point of the Pakistanis as a nation. Irrespective of numerous efforts by the hostile elements abroad in association with the treacherous local soul sellers, there seems no way of finding that very nerve which can break the fiber of Pakistani unity at present. The measure to which Pakistan can sustain the hostile assault from within and outside is still not determined and seems endless.
This scenario ironically presents an opportunity far beyond any other for Pakistani foreign policy managers. The described strength of Pakistanis in the shape of the “punishment taking ability” displayed over a decade of extreme violence now should form the basis for a hardened stance in presenting warnings to the states supporting terror at Pakistan. Pakistani foreign policy managers need to take a tough stance in particular with our immediate hostile neighbor, India, to talk sense into them. The Saudis needs to be conveyed the true feelings of their Pakistani brethren when their funded organizations make Pakistan a battleground of sectarian violence. They also needs to be convinced methodologically to let Pakistan go ahead with the IP gas pipeline in the backdrop of critical energy crisis. All in all, a proactive approach is required by the Pakistani foreign policy tackling the discussed problem of fomented terror with a firm stance.
ANNOTATION
We need to revisit the conclusions emerging from the case studies of the “Pressler amendment” and resultant sanctions era and the cold war fallout in Pakistan in the shape of wrath of the bloody KGB/RAW wave of terror in Pakistan. That and the military support provided by Pakistanis to various Arab countries in particular Saudi Arabia to date are facts enough to conclude the following deductions:-
Ø Pakistan can survive any sanctions that may be imposed upon it by the US/West. ( Which are however least likely to materialize this time around )
Ø Pakistanis can sustain huge amount of punishment, still stick to their guns when it comes to goals of national importance/survival.
Ø The Arabs in particular the Saudis need us as much as we need them.
The positive impact of these projects on the Pakistani foreign policy can also be analyzed in the backdrop of the successful foreign policy dynamics of Pakistan ever since the Chinese independence in maintaining a healthy, evergreen and growing relationship with the People's Republic. Chinese support of Pakistani foreign policy on international forums and their inroads at Pakistan at every level speaks at length on the commitment of the People's Republic of China towards the Pakistani state. Pakistani foreign policy got direct and indirect support from China all along which needs to be employed in relation with the Gawader and IP gas pipeline projects and their impact on our current and future diplomacy. China's emergence on the global power scenario as a potent player in future makes it all the more befitting for the managers of Pakistani foreign policy to adjust accordingly. Further alignment of Pakistani foreign policy in concurrence with that of PRC will not only help securing support for the projects under discussion but will strengthen the bilateral relations towards further high.
On the other hand, Iran was the only state which practically supported Pakistan in the 1965 war irrespective of their well established diplomatic relations with India. That and if the project succeeds and Iran is subsequently able to implement the original idea of IPI( Iran- Pakistan- India) "peace pipeline" shelved under the US pressure, convincing India of visible and logical economic benefits to their country needs to be diplomatically marketed as well. Such a scenario can prove to be detrimental foreign policy highlight to be propagated at all diplomatic channels being a step promoting regional peace and stability in the most heavily nuclear armed, volatile neighborhood on the globe. The prospects of the occurrence of this scenario as such are very much a possibility in the diminishing US influence as the sole superpower of the world in times to come. This situation will fundamentally alter the foreign policy of Pakistan with regards to India for which we need to prepare well before. A scenario as such needs to be propagated for the sake of peace, stability and economic well being of our country and the region.
The importance of both the subject projects for the prosperity of complete Pakistan and the province of Baluchistan is detrimental in value. How the Pakistani foreign policy is affected and adapts at projecting these projects will dictate the success or failure of these important ventures to a large extent.
REFRENCES
1.
Pakistan Energy Watch, Energy Crisis of Pakistan: Growing Deficit (Pakistan
Today, April 19,2013)
2.
Mr Aziz-ud- Din Ahmad: Will Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline survive? ( Pakistan
Today, March 15, 2013)
3.
Mr Khalid Khokar: Harnessing the potential of Gawadar deep seaport (Frontier
Post, April 3,2013)
4.
Brigadier Nadir Mir: “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
