Global Game of Proxies-The New Cold War

  

The world we live in today has come of an age, where morality needs to be catered for by those in power and their pawns to satisfy the respective electorates/masses. Denial, counter accusations and falsifying facts through electronic media by systematic misinformation campaigns by states are the methods to achieve the stated goal of moral justification of their actions. The use of proxy forces enables the states to deny responsibility of any averse domestic or international public opinion. No matter how solid the proof of a state's sponsorship to any proxy exists, they can always declare such proof as conspiracy theories and dismiss them for their benefits. This ushers the era of hidden proxies commissioned to secure a state's open and underlying objectives. This also provided an opportunity to the mercenaries across the globe to make armed groups up for hire doing highly profitable business of spreading terror without accountability. The favourite ideology being exploited to create and emotionally fuel such proxies by their managers at large is the Islamic Jihadist theory. The theory is being utilized in its most distorted forms across the globe, in particular in the Middle East to run a business of blood and terror by the international ideological mercenaries. These groups are splinter outfits which forms the bigger terror apparatuses like the ISIS/Islamic State under the highest bidder commissioning them for their hidden agendas.

While it is apparent to the various national intelligence apparatuses as to who is working as a proxy for whom, it is also convenient enough for the state commissioning these proxies to deny their involvement at any time and abandon their proxy if things fall apart..

Media mouth pieces like Fareed Zikria and his clan are used by powerful states, in this case USA to spread misinformation like the said current affairs showman's recent piece accusing Pakistan of all the US failures in Afghanistan. Fareed Zakaria or anyone from the US sponsored media will always fail to tell their domestic audience that the Indian support to the Pakistani Taliban as their proxy has always been facilitated by the US. The USA desires to create India as a regional hegemony to counter the rise of China. This desire of the USA makes them blind to the proxy terror outfits India commissions against Pakistan which includes The Pakistani Taliban, Balouch Liberation Army, Balouch Liberation Front and even the funding of democratic militant party like the MQM in Karachi. How does the USA in it's right senses expect Pakistan to trust them in response. Pakistan supports the proxies like the Afghan Taliban in return while China fuels the Maoist insurgency in India. Russia supports the armed rebels in Ukraine under the same principles of this global game of proxies. None of the states mentioned above agree to the well known support they afford to their respective proxies.

The game is further complicated in the Middle Eastern theater with open and hidden proxies operating on the instruction of the USA, KSA and Arab monarchies, Turkey and Iran and Russia. The list to who supports whom and denies to support which groups is long and tedious. Every one is striving for influence in the oil rich region with the US fast loosing grounds after futile trillion dollar wars in Iraq in particular. Russia and Mr Putin is the new king on the ground in the Middle East whether the US likes it or not.

Afghanistan was never about democracy or a war on terror to begin with as the neutral observers note. It was always a Geo-strategic maneuver by the US to deploy forces in the very backyard of Russia and China. Afghanistan is the gateway to the energy rich Central Asian Republics but not without Pakistan which affords Afghanistan the access to seas being a land locked country. The only other access Afghanistan has is through a much lengthier route through Iran.

While the US and her allies in the "global game of proxies" are spending fortunes supporting groups like the rag tag Afghan Northern Alliance war lords or proxies in Syria opposed to the Assad regime, Russia nullified these humongous investments through one swift blow. This proves that if a state openly confronts these proxy mercenary outfits, only a few of these globally have the capability to survive. The said survival is essentially based on the geographic and terrain configurations of their dispositions. Afghan Taliban continues to thrive irrespective of the US Armed Forces open assault against them. This is due to the close geographical support from neighbouring states like China and Pakistan and also part due to the mountainous terrain giving them excellent cover and hideouts for men and material. The East it seems is winning the "Global Game of Proxies" so far.

The situation in this war of proxies is highly unfavourable for the US camp as the US corporate greed bogged their government down in the "Oil Wars" which essentially benefited the corporations at the cost of US monetary deficits and loss of US servicemen's lives in the thousands. It only matters to the US domestic audience for what their government is selling them to believe, however it's clear as crystal to the outside world. The USA has fallen from grace and fallen hard. The Russia-China camp is thriving and winning key alliances of key states which really matter in this global tussle. Pakistan has pledged direct allegiances to China hence partly enters the Russian camp. The Arab monarchies are fast loosing clout owing to domestic conditions not favouring their rules while global oil prices have introduced the term of budget deficits to them. The UK in an unprecedented move have joined the Chinese economic camp which will ultimately force them to support Chinese rise in the Asia Pacific much to their American cousins dismay. Things are not looking good for US who is placing all their bets on India to steer their objectives in Asia pacific. India on the other hand is being led by a psychotic leader Mr Modi who thrives on religious extremism. All the US based western financial institutions are making India look like an up and coming economic powerhouse of Asia, but the institutions in Asia who control the actual money do not buy the rubbish their western counterparts are selling regarding India. India has thousands of miles to travel just to rival China and her influence in Asia and only Pakistan with her nuclear arsenal is enough to keep the Indian hegemonic designs supported now by the USA at bay.


The USA's key allies in the Middle East being KSA and other small Arab monarchies are holding on to power in their sand castles which won't hold if full blown averse winds start blowing from the aggressive posturing by Mr Putin which will ultimately be supported by China and her allies. The only credible Muslim Military is unwilling to support or act as a proxy of the Arab monarchies as displayed by the popular slap of refusal to send Pakistani Military by the Pakistani Parliament to fight the war in Yemen at the Arab's insistence. If the Arabs think the Indian or any other western military like the US will come and fight their wars, then they must consider the internal instability they would face by such actions allowing the forces that are considered infidel by their indigenous populations. As for fighting their wars themselves, the Arabs need decades of military training and competence to achieve the minimum desired level in using the expensive war toys they bought from the west/US. The Arab rulers know this well enough and therefore support proxies extensively to fight their war of influence in the Middle East essentially fought versus Iran.

Iran is a success story in this "Global Game of Proxies". Even though they used minimum money they have achieved maximum influence through ideology to support their proxies. Iran provides moral, material and personal support to its proxies like "Hizbullah" for example. Iranian proxies enforced through ideology and controlled through Iranian military personal in their midst are very different then the Sunni ideological proxies. Like the latter, the Iranian proxies are not up for sale to the highest bidder but operates like an institution with solid organization and discipline. All other proxy setups in the globe lack the resolve and sustenance of the Iranian proxies. Iran is already in the Russian camp in a conflict of influence between US camp and Russo-Chinese camp, may you call it the new cold war or The Global Game of Proxies.

The future of the global economic powerhouse depends upon who controls the Asia pacific as the next century belongs to the same power who is able to do so. The USA acknowledges the same and in coalition with her allies is playing the New Cold War or The Global Game of Proxies to maintain their uni-polar status in the world. However, the US economy can not afford her grand desires. Key US allies are forging their independent economic alliances with China. Regional organizations like "SCO" and economic institutions like "AIIB"(Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) are shaping the future of Asia pacific under the Russo-Chinese designs. The US and her subordinates like India will either follow suit or suffer in silence ultimately. This is a war of superior politics and the traditional ideological alliance of Russia and China is winning it discretely with the support of many small but potent allies and proxies as such. To conclude, in the words of the great Chinese philosopher statesman Mao Zedong:-
                 
                     "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"                         
    

        

HAJ STAMPEDE-AGAIN- SAUDIS MUST ANSWER

Tragic scenes in Saudi Arabia in yet another Haj Stampede in which thousands were killed and many more injured. The incident managed to expose the injustices and fallacies committed by the ruling clan of KSA, the royal house of Saud. Their prejudices and wrongdoings are well known but many turn a blind eye due to one reason or another, the main reason usually being fear of the totalitarian regime and their harsh punishments. The tragic accident highlighted the ugliness of the situation. The religious tourism business in Saudi is generating billions of dollars for the House of Saud and their plan for expansion of this lucrative trade is defacing the archaeological identity of Muslim Holy city of Mecca. More so, the operational mismanagement in particular during Haj season is costing the lives of the pilgrims from all over the world. These people pay huge amounts of money to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in order to fulfill their religious obligations but are still faced with difficulties and racism.

The stampede on this years pilgrimage caused around 1400 deaths.Iran among other nations blame the stampede on the Saudi royals movement which forced the closure of an exit resulting in the incident. However the Saudi government laid the blame on the pilgrims for causing the stampede themselves. The information wars go on, raising questions that are still not being answered by the rulers of the Islamic holy land.

• Why is there  consistent repeated failure in managing the pilgrimage?

• Why, despite this repeated failure causing the tragic loss of lives are the Saudis only concentrating on expanding their billion dollar religious tourism business ?

• Why are healthcare facilities the least priority in the 60 billion dollar expansion of Mecca that focuses on the hotel industry alone?

• Finally, why is the concept of human rights and freedom of speech in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia bottom of their governance priority? 

The only answer to all these questions from the House of Saud and their paid clergy is that it is their God given right to rule their lands as they please. The Arab cultural arrogance is automatically displayed once it comes to answering questions like this.

The kingdom's crisis management inevitably always resorts to information and media blackout, however, on this occasion hajis (pilgrims) on their return to their respective countries are challenging the Arab's claim to divinity. There is a general feeling of disgust and displeasure towards the Saudi regime for the first time ever among the conservative Sunni Muslims. This dust won't settle easily for the House of Saud and their minions operating around the globe.

The house of Saud held a clout over the Sunni Muslim world through funding their religious schools and their religious leaders in each respective country. The establishment of mosques around the globe funded by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and similar investments buy them this leverage to maintain dominance over the Shia Muslim religious establishments similarly led and funded by Iran. Iran on the other hand, irrespective of all its troubles is winning the war of influence through ideology and the info wars. The credit of this advantage to Iran in the Arab-Persian conflict goes to the inefficiency and mismanagement of Saudi Arabia by her rulers who have in turn employed equally inept managers to run their Kingdom's affairs. Iran is fully utilizing the opportunities provided by the Saudis by exposing the fragile nature of perceptions about the Houses of the Arab Royals.The nature of the armed encounters in this great Middle Eastern war of influence between the Arabs and Persians is written in blood and terror, however that's another tragic story.

Arab Royals live overly extravagant lifestyles around the globe. Some of them even commit felonies abroad and get away with them by leaving in their private jets and using their billion dollar individual assets. The western world is their summer play ground while the rest of the year they enjoy the palaces and estates in their kingdoms run by expats who are treated like slaves. They are given state level protocol by the Muslim countries they visit and whose leaders they fund and many hold shady business empires made over the oil money all around the globe.

The lower oil prices have fundamentally created the first ever budget deficit at the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This called for the diversification of the Saudi economy which is heavily dependent on the oil revenues. As a result the most profitable diversification of the Saudi economy is in the shape of expansion of the Haj and Umra pilgrimage business. The Muslim holy pilgrimages in Mecca and Medina form the top tourist destination globally. It is not only the most frequented  place visited by religious tourists, but also promises to hold this status for the foreseeable future. It can be seen as an excellent business plan, hence its execution by the House of Saud even at the cost of death and misery of the very people paying to keep the business running. The focus of this religious tourism business is the hotel industry while unforgivably neglecting the healthcare and fire and rescue facilities required to run this mega operation that generates their billions in profits.

It is known as the hospitality industry around the globe but hospitality is the least displayed trait here except to those who are the guests of the ruling house or their paid clergy.The difficulty in concealing this matter is apparent on this occasion .They will have to invest in the healthcare and mass management apparatus providing adequate emergency and rescue services matching the nature of the biggest and most congested human gatherings in the world. They will have to address the problem areas highlighted repeatedly if they don't want to be forced to answer the questions that they are not answering still. They will have to improve their present management and change their attitudes which seems highly unlikely.

The Saudis need to realise that the world they are living in today is a global village with access to the majority of information and incidents. They will loose their authority, prestige and influence if their attitudes fail to change. The Pakistani parliaments refusal to send the Pakistani Army to Yemen to fight for the Saudi empire is just the beginning. It predicts the loss of dominance of the house of Saud in the Sunni Muslim world if they fail to mend their ways. The Saudis in their arrogance are not making or keeping friends they desperately require to sustain their kingdom's influence around the globe and domestically. Much to their dismay, democracies around the world are debating the Saudi behaviour . These democracies include the Sunni majority Muslim countries, including Pakistan, Indonesia and Bangladesh. Uncomfortable questions are being asked which will have to be addressed by the Saudis at some point, whether they like it or not. The mirage is finally being seen for what it is.                                                   

Impediments To India-Pakistan Peace - Distorted Perspectives

The South Asian nuclear armed republics of India and Pakistan are daggers drawn yet again. No surprises there. The hawks from both sides are spitting fire at each other as usual. The Indian government led by Modi is hell bound to create all sorts of troubles for Pakistan, whereas the Pakistani side under its powerful Army Chief General Raheel Sharif is replying every Indian move with an equal audacity if not more. The world realizes that any limited or full scale war between India and Pakistan has the sure potential of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) scenario under the nuclear warheads both countries possess. Any such eventuality will have a global effect far beyond South Asia, and complete world would suffer directly or indirectly. The genesis of this conflict dates back to the bloody partition of both countries  in 1947 and the creation of two independent states after almost two centuries of British rule. The state of Kashmir remains to be the principle bone of contention ever since partition of both countries which fought three all out wars since then. Both countries are still engaged in a cold/proxy war even as of today. UN resolution on Kashmir calls for a plebiscite to decide its final settlement. Pakistan calls for the implementation of the UN resolution for the settlement of the conflict knowing fully well that the Muslim majority population of Kashmir will opt for Pakistan and India on the other hand refuses out-rightly to abide by the UN resolution on Kashmir due to the same reason. Hence, Kashmir remains as the unfinished agenda of India-Pakistan partition.


The resolution of Kashmir conflict and other bilateral issues is not something which can not be resolved through dialogue. However, since hate sells much easier then love, hawks of both countries under its security dominated historical perspectives continues to preach hatred towards each other to their respective younger generations, keeping the fire of emulation alive and burning to date. Under the current security standing of both India and Pakistan, it is least likely that a military solution of Kashmir conflict will be possible without mass destruction of both countries. Both sides won't also ever give up the respective parts of Kashmir under their control. It happens to be the perfect catch twenty two situation exposing the entire region to the risk of a nuclear holocaust.

India aspires the status of a regional power in Asia pacific, however, Pakistan continues to be the biggest impediment in achieving Indian dreams. No matter how much the west supports India to rise as a counterweight to the Chinese influence, no sane mind will invest for long term in a country which is a direct target of an extensive nuclear arsenal. The situation surely does frustrate India which is thrice the size of Pakistan and possesses a vibrant economy compared to that of Pakistan. Pakistan on the other hand does not even flinch a bit having established credible nuclear deterrence towards her enemies . India has thus far tried all proxy warfare strategies against Pakistan, only to be met with failure under extreme resilience which marks the very fiber of Pakistani society. Pakistan for decades fought a proxy war against India at Kashmir, only to be halted by Pervaiz Musharraf regime in 2004 under intense American pressure post 9/11. Both countries leave no stone turned to harm each other's interests at any international forum. Top politicians in both countries score winning points on the hate agenda against each other. The text books of both countries are designed to preach hate against each other and so on and so forth. The print and electronic media of both countries under the influence of the security dominated mindset again propagate hate and chest thumping is frequent phenomenon.

Efforts for peace between both countries at large scale mostly remains restricted to achieving limited business objectives by few elite who are in turn the sole beneficiaries of such efforts. There is a genuine desire among the intelligentsia of both countries which share rich cultural traditions to mend fences. However, the "average Joes" of both countries led by respective fundamental nationalist forces are made to believe that any prospect of peace is impossible as the other side wants to drink their blood. It is not in the interests of the fundamentalist nationalist forces at both side to let any sort of peace through dialogue get through, as their bread and butter would be at stake if it happens. The situation allows for the hawks at both sides to thrive and doves can at best duck down and take the beating. It is always a bad idea to talk and promote peace by any individual or group belonging to either India and Pakistan due to the distorted perceptions being promoted by the said fundamental nationalist forces on both sides. These forces are very powerful on both sides of the borders and well entrenched in their respective security establishments. They are capable of escalating any minor bilateral conflict into a battle of words and weapons and possess armed wings to hold their influence. It greatly helps politicians at both sides in general to play blame game and point fingers at the rival state as it greatly helps them to deviate the attention of the masses from the real issues they are facing due to the corruption and incompetence of the same politicians. In the meantime, the youth of both countries continue attacking each other on the web and all sort of social media forums under the influence of the said, false and distorted perspectives. Under the current Hindu nationalist government of Mr Modi in India, this hate mongering has seen new highs.

Both India and Pakistan together forms the main bulk of South Asian region. The majority of the population in both countries live in poverty with none to low access to social and essential services for example provision of healthcare and even clean drinking water. The world bank in its 2015 review of South Asia notes the following :-

"  poverty in the region remains high. About 399 million people—40 percent of the world’s poor—live on less than $1.25 a day. More than 200 million people live in slums, and half a billion people go without electricity. Many countries in the region suffer from extreme forms of social exclusion and huge infrastructure gaps, and the larger countries are experiencing increases in inequality. Development in the region will be key to meeting global poverty and prosperity goals".

The same report further notes:

"South Asia will play an important role in the global development story as it takes its place in the Asian Century. It has the world’s largest working-age population, a quarter of the world’s middle-class consumers, the largest number of poor and undernourished in the world, and several fragile states of global geopolitical importance. With inclusive growth, South Asia has the potential to change global poverty".

For the projections in the above report to take effect in true sense, India foremost and Pakistan as well need to realize the importance of peace while maintaining their security apparatuses but not directed at each other. There is no conflict on earth which can not be solved by bilateral negotiations under neutral mediators. But it must be noted that, any such idea may only be realized if and when the "distorted perceptions" against each other by both Indians and Pakistanis are challenged, questioned and openly debated with as much flare, as the hawks spit their fire.......

               

GLOBAL RESURGENCE OF 'KHALISTAN' MOVEMENT-INDIA IN TROUBLE

The idea of "Khalistan"(Land of Pure) movement  took birth during the partition of subcontinent in the 1940's as a separate homeland for Muslims(Pakistan) and Hindus(India) where the Sikhs felt left out and proposed a separate state of Khalistan. However, the majority Hindu population countered every such demand by the Sikhs and successfully annexed their homeland of Punjab with India. Indians suppressed the "Khalistan" movement for two decades after partition/freedom from the British Raj which gave momentum to the Sikh's demands of a separate homeland. In the 1971 the "Khalistan" movement took a sharp uprising under Jagjit Singh Chuhaun who raised international awareness among the global Sikh Diaspora and collected millions of US dollars contribution by the Sikh dissidents around the globe by publishing an add in The New York Times from New York, USA. Jagjit Singh announced the de-facto creation of Khalistan under his leadership and printed his own currency.  Within a decade, under Jagjit Singh, the "Khalistan" movement took full swing and Indian Punjab by early 1980s resembled a separate Sikh country with its own militant faction which was not acceptable to Ms Indira Ghandi, then Prime Minister of India under any circumstances.  

                                           

The picture above shows the aftermath of the ‘operation Blue Star’ in Indian state of Punjab in 1984 on orders of Indra Ghandhi which was commanded by the General Kuldeep Singh Brar. They entered the Harimandir Sahib, the golden temple, to destroy it and overpower the whole sikh militants. At that time Sant Jarnail Singh Bhindrawale was the religious leader of the sikhs. He was fighting for the rights of the Sikhism. Indian Army reached the Golden Temple, Amritsar to destroy it and ruin the sikh history in order by Government. In 1984 Sikh genocide thousand of sikhs were massacred. Indian Army totally destroyed the Darbar Sahib.

The nefarious Operation blue Star by the Indian Army saw a rise in Sikh militancy and discontent with the Indian state by the majority of Sikhs. The result was the killing of Ms Indra Ghandi by her favourite Sikh bodyguard whom she trusted for over a decade long service. 

Pakistan started supporting the "Khalistan" movement after 1971 war with India. India broke Pakistan into two countries by helping create Bangladesh which was reason enough for the Pakistanis to return the favour.  Besides this, Pakistan has close links with the global Sikh diaspora for it hosts them over the most revered Sikh religious sites located at Pakistan. Pakistan helped the Sikhs in creation of an underground resistance within India propagating the Khalistan movement. Pakistani nationals also provided financial support to the Sikh independence movement and strengthened its core within India.     

       

At the end of Zia Era through a plane crash, democratic government returned to Pakistan. In the most controversial decision the latter slain prime minister of Pakistan Benazir Bhutto sold out the Khalistan movement to another slain prime minister of India Rajiv Ghandi , in a bid to turn the decades long rivalry between the two countries into friendship. However, it was never meant to be.The Indians used the sensitive information provided by the Pakistani Government to wipe out the underground Khalistan movement within India ruthlessly. In return none of the expectations of Benazir Bhutto were met in the realm of lasting Indo- Pakistan peace. Some say it was the promise of forces withdrawal from Siachin glacier, the highest battlefield of the world by Rajiv Ghandi, that made Benazir Bhutto gave up the secrets of Khalistan movement to him. Whatsoever the case and whatever transpired in the closed door one on one meeting between both the leaders, Rajiv charmed Benazir to get what he wanted by giving information on the movement responsible for the death of his mother. Rajiv Ghandi returned home to quash the Khalistan movement in an authoritarian move with the typical ruthless signatures of his late mother. However, shortly after that, Rajiv Ghandi was blown to bits by the Tamil separatists in a political rally in a suicide blast carried out by a woman. With that, any hope of a return gesture as anticipated by Benazir Bhutto by India for forging peace between arch rivals also died. Benazir was never forgiven by the Pakistani security establishment for the gross error in judgement, seen as a betrayal by Pakistani security institutions resulting in the alienation of Sikhs from them. The Pakistani security establishment could never reverse the effects of the Benazir debacle and hence lost their influence and goodwill with the global Sikh Diaspora supporting Khalistan.    

However, the Sikhs never gave up on their demands and kept the political struggle for Khalistan alive around the globe, supported by the Sikh Diaspora essentially in the UK, Canada and USA. Pakistan afforded maximum possible political support to the Sikh independence movement globally while the Pakistani population is naturally sympathetic to the Sikh cause of Khalistan.

The dramatic turn of events that took place after the warning of Indian spy arm RAW to the Indian parliament quite recently after successive likewise reports of the global resurgence of Khalistan movement. Incidents of cooperation between the Kashmir freedom fighters and Khalistan movement in Indian homeland and around the globe, raised red flags in India. The results are the joint protests in the western world by the Sikhs and Kashmiris of India raising the serious issues of human rights violations by the Indian security forces against the freedom fighters and general population of  Kashmir and Punjab. At the Indian homeland, only few days ago, the attack at a police station in the state of Punjab by armed militants is being termed as a joint operation by the Kashmiri and Sikh militant outfits by the Indian media.

The stakes are being raised by all the players in this game, with pawns being sacrificed to check the strength of opposition. However, a few facts have been established, not in favour of India. Firstly, the Khalistan movement is being taken seriously by the western audience under the protests by the global Sikh diaspora essentially in US/Canada/EU. Secondly, the human rights abuses by the Indian security forces during operation Blue Star is being seriously questioned after the draconian Indian rule over Kashmir and numerous established human rights violations. The situation certainly does not fair well with the Indian desires to acquire global power status like their desire of a permanent seat in the UN security council for instance. Thirdly, the cooperation between the militant factions of Khalistan movement and Kashmir freedom fighters is creating a serious security situation at hands for the Indians. Indians are underplaying the threat by traditionally blaming and firing at Pakistan, but it won't solve the issues for India.

Indians were repeatedly warned by Pakistan to refrain from financing and directing the Pakistani militants like the Taliban and Baluchistan separatists from Afghanistan soil. However, the advice fell on deaf ears in India for all practical purposes. Indians will have to face the music by tasting their own medicine while in the meantime, global resurgence of Khalistan movement is a reality only growing with every passing day....
     

The Rise of The Red Empire- Regional Impacts

In a world infested with agenda driven corporate media shaping opinions and perceptions, it is extremely difficult to see through the maze of info-wars. The global population in general are highly influenced by and believe the propaganda created through each individual corporate media, having no direct access to ground realities. An example may be the most recent media reporting of the Chinese stock market crash of 2015. The western media machinery raised red flags professing an end of Chinese dominance in global economy. Whereas, on ground within a week of the stock market crash the Chinese government moved swiftly to secure the public interest by banning the sale of "short stocks" by both corporations and wealthy businessmen. Not only did the stock market recover in no time proving the resilience of the Chinese economy, but China posted 7% growth in its economy rite in the face of failed western capitalist economic order.  This was only possible under the Chinese system of governance which levies checks and balances on the manipulation of the "invisible hands" of global capitalism. The global economic initiatives by China such as BRICS bank and AIIB(Asian Infrastructure Development Bank)  are the Chinese reply to the US/Western bloc controlled global monetary systems like the IMF and the World Bank. The political economy of Eurasia is being taken over by he Chinese with their partners of SCO. The future of global economy lies in the Asia Pacific where infrastructure gap is the major expedient to an economic rise of the region. Chinese infrastructure investments in Asia linking it with Europe through Russia(New Silk Route) is buying them direct influence in the biggest region/economic hub of the world. The Chinese military maneuvers at the South China sea in direct defiance of the global policeman USA is a challenge to the existing "world order" thrown by China which is supported by powerful regional countries.

 The "Red Empire" is rising out of its ashes under "Xi DaDa". The resolve shown by President Xi Jingping of China affectionately who is called "Xi DaDa" by cracking down on rampant corruption in China is unmatched. He's purging his own house out of internal infestation of corruption which disillusioned the majority of Chinese driven by the philosophies of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. "Xi DaDa" has been able to revive the Chinese public faith in the communist system which drives this mega billions of money generating global factory owned by the Chinese state in majority. Under Xi's inspirational and popular leadership which has the Chinese public mandate almost comparable to Chairman Mao, China is pushing fast and yet succeeding in diversifying its economy. The political strategic influence China is currently projecting essentially in Eurasia and Africa is unprecedented and mostly unchecked. Unlike the US led western political economic model based on false and fabricated reporting and controlled by the "invisible hands" of the capitalist order, the Chinese model is based on ground realities and "Real Deals" benefiting the common lives of related populace. While the right of ownership and property is effectively secured in the Chinese economic order, culprits responsible of harming public interests through personal greed are awarded capital punishments by the state. The resilience of the Chinese economy is based on the efficacy of the Chinese Communist Party to control all the actors of Chinese state power and not letting the "free market economy" play havoc with the Chinese public funds unlike rest of he world in particular western economies.

China in association with Russia, Central Asian Republics and Pakistan has embarked upon an adventure in Eurasia which is both brave and farsighted. The resolve of all these partners is for real and evident on ground. The Chinese finances coupled with the mass resolution of all the various countries mentioned above is shaping the future of Eurasia and Asia pacific. The rest of the world will be forced to join in to stay relevant. It's as simple as that, as the British told their US cousins while welcoming and joining on board with the newly found Chinese economic order.

The impact of the "Rise of The Red Empire" will be more direct on partner states and would generally benefit complete Asia Pacific with progress on the Chinese infrastructure investments on ground. The Chinese economic order is looking to develop the complete region economically it is investing in. This will in turn provide substantial strength to China and its economy providing lasting economic stability and promoting regional peace. This model based on investments in visible development projects has got a quick impact on buying political goodwill in client states while providing strength and resilience to their economies.

The Chinese are taking a particular interest in the security of their mega investments in Eurasia in partnership with the relevant regional players governing the respective security regimes. Pakistan is taking on the first phase of the "New Silk Route" project linking mainland China with South Asia and Middle East. Pakistan Army being the strongest stake holder in Pakistani power dynamics is directly involved in the construction of China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC). Most recently the Pakistani Army Chief visiting the under-construction CPEC site made a statement ,"The Army is ready to pay any cost for making CPEC". The statement  came after the completion of 502 Km of CPEC by the Army's civil engineering wing (FWO). This 502 Km road is part of 870 Km road, FWO is constructing to connect the strategic Gawader deep sea port with Indus Highway at Chaman (Pakistani border town with Afghnistan). The road would become part of the western alignment of CPEC. So far, FWO has lost six military personal and ten civilian in 132 security related incidents since the start of work on the project in March 2014. This explains the statement quoted above by the Pakistani Army Chief while the Pakistan Army is rolling out 10,000 strong special security force specifically for the CPEC. The forces opposing this development are essentially funded by the arch rival Indians who are leading an international smear campaign against the CPEC. Both the Chinese and their Pakistani partners are in no mood to budge down to these Indian bullying tactics. The resolve to proceed and complete the mega project with secure transit routes is unprecedented within Pakistan and China.

BONUS READ :- http://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2015/05/china-pakistan-economic-corridor-cpec.html

 The same resolve is being displayed by all the various partner countries and their major stake holders regards the success of the Chinese economic order piloted through Xi's "New Silk Route" project. This extraordinary resolve based on the common economic benefits not only contributes to the "Rise of the Red Empire" but also greatly benefits the region through promoting commerce via much accessible land routes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is fast forwarding towards the establishment of NATO like security bloc challenging the western world order. The massive economic benefits of a Chinese driven Asian pacific region would force the Asian rivals to Chinese rise such as Japan to join hands with the SCO overlooking political fault lines. The modern world economy is driven through economic prowess gained through global interdependence. Those who wish to stay relevant and compete in the global market economy needs to join hands with China in its drive to bridge the infrastructure gap at the Asian pacific for global economy to flourish. Peaceful coexistence while allowing the "Rise of The Red Empire" for the benefit of global economy in general and that of Asia pacific in particular is the need of the hour. This realization is widespread and opposition will die down with the progress on ground related to the Chinese economic order. The world is changing fast. The Red Empire is finally flexing her muscles, but in the right manner...                      

                   



         

INDIAN INTERFERENCE IN PAKISTANI INTERNAL AFFAIRS.

           "Pakistan's security setup has compiled evidence showing Raw's footprints

           in Pakistan and soon the real face of India will be exposed before the world"

                                                     ( The Express Tribune, quoted from a source)

Pakistan’s decision to raise the question of Indian involvement within Pakistan at the UN Security Council and the Human Rights Commission seems to have been fueled by the recent statement made by the former MQM leader Tariq Mir to the London Metropolitan police.  Many questions have been raised after the statement surfaced through a BBC story that accused the MQM of getting funds from India.The main question being, to what extent is India really involved in Pakistani affairs?

It was stated that two of MQM’s senior leaders based in London had made a confession to receiving funds from India. According to the statement, MQM chief Altaf Hussain and other leading party members were also aware of this.Mir claimed that a meeting with Indian officials was held in Rome and the officials were said to be RAW agents. He also mentioned that one of the officials they dealt with had direct links to the Indian Prime minister. Following the meeting in Rome, MQM workers were sent to India  where hundreds of MQM militants were trained in explosives, weapons and sabotage in camps in North and North East India. From 1994 the party was receiving 800,000 British Pound Sterling per year in funding from India. At the same time MQM workers that went for the training reported that the Indian officials often discussed matters regarding Pakistani politics, including Afghanistan and the Taliban and more specifically issues regarding Karachi.

Pakistan’s biggest asset in the fight against terrorism within the country, the Pakistani army is seeing a constant strain in terms of finances and lives of officers and soldiers lost due to the military operations against the triple threat in Pakistani civil matters. The first most recent being the Pakistani Taliban, also reported to be funded by India and trained by RAW. Secondly, Insurgency in Baluchistan, in which ex Indian Army Chief Kumar Singh admitted that India sponsored bomb blasts and funded the separatist movements in Baluchistan and thirdly the complicated mix of urban crime, ethnic, linguistic, religious, sectarian and political rivalries in Karachi, mostly concerning the MQM, that we have come to know also has Indian support.

India’s constant meddling in Pakistani affairs in a bid to destabilize the country and preoccupy the Pakistani Army with unnecessary civil unrest is indication of the strengthening of the Pakistani position against them, especially now at a time when the Pakistan Army is emerging as the chief guarantor of peace in Afghanistan in partnership with China. The Pakistani military is committed to its internal affairs and may find it difficult to address this issue.  Failure to deliver this proposed peace by Pakistan will alienate the Pakistani ally, Afghan president Ashraf Ghani and strengthen pro India forces in Kabul, a very desirable outcome for India. Jim O’Neill, a British economist’s prediction that Pakistan will be the 18^th largest economy by 2050 gives a rough idea of Pakistan's rising economy and the latest involvement and investment from China into Pakistan including the plan for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor is reason enough to worry the neighbouring country into promoting destabilization within Pakistan. The Chinese involvement within Pakistan cannot be wavered no matter what tactics India uses as they have a vested interest in Pakistan to sustain their own national economy and global repute.

At present the Pakistani military are absorbing the full brunt of the terrorism and insurgency but they also have the potential to use this very threat against India in their internal affairs. The numerous fault lines within India are fertile breeding grounds for Pakistani intelligence to get successfully involved in. Khalistan is one such example in which Pakistan previously played an active role in by supporting the Sikh insurgency. This was until Benazir Bhutto’s resolution in December 1988 to withdraw Pakistani support in this area in return for a withdrawal of troops from Siachen. It suffices to say that the Pakistani side of the agreement was fulfilled, contrary to the Indian side of the bargain that has yet to see the light. Backing for the Khalistani cause can be resumed very easily. Support and funding for Kashmir and Pakistani interference in the numerous insurgencies in India can also be initiated with ease. India needs to be aware that their continuous provocation will be met with much greater involvement from Pakistani intelligence forces in similar attempts to destabilize them. 

The issue of Indian involvement in Pakistan in subversive activities across the country will be officially raised at the United Nations with solid proof of Indian intelligence agencies assisting terrorism and insurgency in Pakistan. This will be presented by the Pakistani Ambassador to the UN, Maleeha Lodhi at the UN Security Council and the Human Rights Commission with the hope that the international community will address the matter accordingly. At the very least this will raise awareness of India's role in terrorist activities on an international level.

Indian influence on a higher governmental level can also been witnessed through the pro India stance of the current prime minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif and his family. This includes their personal and business dealings within India. Despite cordial relations between the people, India has never sincerely accepted the formation of Pakistan throughout the countries few short years and has continuously tried to destabilize the nation by their consistent sponsoring of terror in Pakistan at all levels. The evidence of India’s involvement is paving a way for Pakistani intelligence agencies to get involved within India’s many fault lines. This interference is causing much unnecessary violence and deaths with Pakistan having to endure the indoctrination of its largely illiterate population by Indian influences. India needs to, however begrudgingly, accept that Pakistan is a separate nation with great potential to prosper independently and to stop causing problems for them..

Sixty eight years after gaining independence and becoming a separate state, created in the name of Islam, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the very foundation of Islam and Muslim brotherhood the country was so proudly based on is the same tool being used by India to assist terrorism and insurgency in Pakistan. Despite her massive potential and the huge opportunities being given to her, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan at this present time at least mentally has not yet fully managed to gain independence from the carefully crafted and planted  Indian “invasion”.  

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) - Issues and Impacts

Sino-Pak relations are laid on the foundations of an historical friendship based on the need and desire of mutual well being and entwined national interests of both countries. The Pakistani government, led by General Pervaiz Musharraf started marketing the idea of a China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the Chinese in 2004. Musharraf proposed the development and use of the Gawader deep sea port in Pakistan by China and proposed to link it through the existing land route via the Karakorum highway to mainland China. The idea was bought by the Chinese due to it being the most accessible and shortest possible route for the energy hungry Chinese economy to the Middle Eastern oil market. Over time, subsequent Pakistani governments kept on pursuing the development of this corridor even negating US pressure. It was largely made possible by the popular support the Chinese enjoy in Pakistan and similar enthusiasm for Pakistan within China.

                               

                          
                                                     THE NEW SILK ROUTE

The change of leadership in China, with President Xi Jinping came into power on 15 November 2012 was faced with the immediate challenge to revive the Chinese economy suffering from the global economic crisis and slow domestic growth rate. President Xi, gained huge public support due to his policies and reforms and is now known as "The Red Prince" in China . Amongst various other initiatives that addressed the issues faced in the Chinese Republic, he also spearheaded the idea of the revival of "New Silk Route" or the so called "Iron Silk Road". China also created financial institutions to invest in this mega intercontinental infrastructure venture in a bid to revive the Chinese economy. The Chinese plans perfectly suit the Euro-Asian economies and the rise of Asia Pacific in the global economic order as the international business enterprise of the future. The CPEC fits perfectly into this puzzle linking the Pakistani economy with the future of global business.  

                                  

President Xi Jingping visited Pakistan in April 2015 and signed a deal, investing 46 billion US Dollars in the Pakistani infrastructure development projects with the CPEC in the forefront. This is the biggest foreign investment in the Pakistani economy since its creation in 1947. This speaks volumes of the extent of good relations between the two states in comparison with the uncertain formal alliance with the USA. The United states spent only a meager amount in Pakistan in return for throwing them into the fire of the so called "War On Terror". The war resulted in amounting to almost 300 billion US Dollar losses to the Pakistani economy as per Pakistani parliamentary sources.

The map shown below by "The Wall Street Journal", compares this scenario with the original silk roads projects of the CPEC sold by the Musharraf government to China

SILK ROADS CONNECTING COMPLETE PAKISTAN WITH CHINA

This original plan presented by the Pakistani government to China in 2004 catered for all five provinces of Pakistan. The plan took into consideration the consolidation of Pakistani federation through the CPEC and also the existing road network availability for speedy operations of the economic corridor. The plan has no objection from any of the stake holders in Pakistan and all the routes illustrated in the map already exist on ground in the country as national highways, requiring minimal efforts for their development into international trade routes with economic zones on the way. The plan is inclusive of Pakistan's complete existing economic nerve centers as presented below.  

The biggest restriction to the proposal however is the present central Punjab dominated Nawaz Sharif regime in Pakistan. The government continuously finds grounds for dispute in the project and instead they are proposing a singular route linking an already congested central Punjab as the main route of the CPEC as shown below. It is a strategy which revolves around the shortsighted personal business interests of the present Punjabi businessmen in power. To the public, they are selling security concerns as the reason of this re routing, but in fact it is a bid to build further economic zones in central Punjab on lands mostly owned by the ruling elite of Punjab.  

                         

  Nawaz Sharif Government Fiasco Plan- Negating 800 KM short route for the greed of more economic zones in already congested (industrialized) central Punjab which will seriously harm the  environment in Punjab hence Pakistan while making the entire project controversial 

Dotted red route is the shortest and easiest access to China, being negated as main route by the Nawaz Sharif government stating security concerns as the reasons.

This particular policy seems likely to fade out soon under Pakistani domestic pressure as it requires more of a shift of attitudes rather than routes. The geographical narrow width of Pakistan makes the original plan of the CPEC a more viable development. Central Punjab is already linked with that route through highly developed existing motorways. It is well known that businessmen are unrestricted for trading through the existing brilliantly developed communication network. It is more than likely the the Punjabi elite in power will eventually be made to realize this by the present military leadership especially if recent examples of the influence that the military have on the present government are taken in to consideration. They are in  position to do business through the CPEC through an elaborate infrastructure . Their greed to get more can only harm the Pakistani federation which is not acceptable to the powerful military of Pakistan. A specialized force is already being formed by the Pakistani Army under a General Officer to address the exaggerated security concerns related to the safety of the CPEC  

The CPEC will bring Pakistan on to the center stage of global geopolitics as the country will become the southern corridor to mainland China and its "Iron Silk Roads" project linking the world to Asia Pacific. It is after all, Asia Pacific in which lies the future of global commerce and trade. Its the beginning of the new era not only for Pakistan, but for entire region associated with these trade corridors. 

New Era In Afghanistan-Pakistan (AFPAK) Relations

Just couple of years ago nobody could ever imagine that the Pakistani premier intelligence service ISI and its Afghan counterpart would be working together to beat a foe created by the earlier in association with the American CIA during the "Cold War" era. Pakistan hosts the biggest ever Afghan refugee population around the globe and is termed the most hospitable nation for Afghan nationals in exile by the UNO surveys. However, the support Pakistan afforded to the Taliban and the repression by this ethnic religious extremist organization against the Northern Afghan and Hazara  population caused a huge backlash and resentment among Afghans directed at their neighbours, Pakistan. India in their traditional rivalry with Pakistan, exploited this resentment of Afghan population and spared no efforts in post 9/11 Afghanistan to further broaden this lack of trust between both nations, in particular between AFPAK security institutions.    

With the Elections of Ashraf Ghani as President of Afghanistan and change of guard at the Pakistani security establishment, the overdue realization was finally met by both neighbouring countries that it is naturally convenient for them to work together for the peace and prosperity of their indigenous populations. Any outside or inside impartial observer would note that the strategic interests of both these countries are best served in working together as partners. This however, required a major shift in the thinking patterns and re-alignment of priorities by the security apparatuses of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The deal of cooperation between both countries powerful intelligence outfits signifies the agreement on this re-alignment of priorities and opens a new chapter in the history of bilateral cooperation between both the Muslim States.

BONE OF CONTENTION

Its not an easy bargain for either of the countries intelligence arms. Pakistani ISI in response to this alliance needs to keep a tight leash on the Afghan Taliban who have been their traditional allies. They need to force them to reconcile with the Kabul government and reach a workable power sharing and governance model/agreement with them. Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) also needs to choke the logistics support of Afghan Taliban from the Pakistani side and work in cooperation with Afghan National Intelligence Directorate in sorting out a permanent peace accord between the Afghan government and the Taliban through open and clandestine maneuvering. Easier said then done, the job of Afghan intelligence and security apparatus is no less daunting. They would have to target the Indian funded Pakistani Taliban mercenaries operating from the Afghan soil in a u-turn to their previous policies which was in support of the Indian intelligence agency RAW. Its not only a stab in the heart of Indian intelligence designs to isolate and destroy Pakistan, but also a major defeat in a war they funded with billions of Indian tax payers money. This makes it all the more difficult for the Afghans who were being heavily funded through these Indian designs against Pakistan seeking regional hegemony for themselves. Besides the capacity of Afghan National Army to take on the Pakistani Taliban mercenaries is also a question bothering many across the border. Its a new path both neighbours are embarking upon which is filled with more thorns, less petals. 

Having said all that, under a genuine sincere partnership of both Afghan and Pakistani security and political leadership forged upon natural alliance of shared strategic interests, all above is highly achievable. Keeping in view the "shared rich cultural history" between both countries less the animosity over the Pakistani support to Taliban under the compulsions of their past security doctrines of strategic depth, and the resultant Afghan shift towards India aside, the deal of cooperation between both the neghbouring countries is naturally sealed. Afghanistan being a land locked country, depends on the easiest direct trading route to the international seas via Pakistan. Pakistan obliges Afghanistan by providing this transit facility historically, but fails to make use of the goodwill created thus by supporting proxies like the Afghan Taliban. This scenario is changing fast under the present arrangements between the powerful spy agencies of both countries. Pakistani security establishment realizes that their past policy of supporting the Taliban proxies forced the government in Kabul to tilt towards the enemies of Pakistani State in last couple of decades. This in turn fueled the fire of terrorism at Pakistani mainland through the international ideological mercenaries funded by the said enemies of Pakistani State operating from the Afghan soil.

This dramatic change of stance also signifies a large shift in the Pakistani thinking, where they feared that the planned 2014 US withdrawal from Afghanistan would plunge that country back into a civil war. This would have left Pakistan to deal with Taliban again as a recognized military force at Afghanistan to deal with. The Karzai regime was largely seen as a US puppet at Afghanistan only controlling parts of the country, that too with the US/ISAF military support. Although nothing much has changed in that perception, but the transition of power at Kabul and the change in Pakistani security dynamics under General Raheel Sharif, the new all powerful Army Chief arose a desire in Pakistan to support the moderate Kabul regime over the religious extremist Taliban. Pakistan hurts badly due to the menace of religious intolerance and extremism. Thus, under the stewardship of General Raheel, Pakistan embarked upon the journey of moderation and tolerance through strict laws against the hate mongers domestically and mending relations with estranged past international allies.

The Afghanistan-Pakistan alliance in the offing, reaching its full potential will surely benefit from the dream of the revival of the old Silk route. Afghanistan can be naturally linked to the new silk route via Pakistan and Central Asia and become the part of the plans laid out by the Chinese for revival of trade and commerce in Euro-Asia. The Chinese are willing to invest in the infrastructure of the trade routes connecting Asia pacific with Central Asia, EU and Russia through the land routes.
This partnership between both countries can only benefit the population living in the complete region ushering them into an era of peace and prosperity.                      

       

INDIAN FAILURE TO BURN PAKISTAN

In a rare move, the Pakistani Army Official spokesperson conveyed the utter dismay and serious concern of the Pakistani army top brass over the involvement of Indian spy agencies in destabilizing Pakistan on multifarious fronts. Although such talks are very much part of the drawing room gossips all around Pakistan, but the official confirmation and displeasure shown indicates a shift in the Pakistani defense policy towards the particular issue. With the Afghan endgame from the US perspective and the success of Pakistani Military in curbing home grown terror networks funded by the so called Indian cultural centers strategically located all along the Pakistan Afghanistan border inside Afghanistan, the shift in balance of power on the ground is expected to tilt in favour of the Pakistan Military. USA is handing over combat equipment worth in billion of dollars used in Afghanistan to the Pakistani Military in recognition of the said tilt in the balance of power. Indians irrespective of spending billions of dollars in funding the clandestine operations against the Pakistani interests through Pakistani Taliban from Afghanistan have failed to gain the US confidence as a potent player who could handle the region. The Chinese vote of confidence on the other hand is naturally inclined towards Pakistan.

The next move on the Indian cards is to somehow circumvent Pakistan in reaching Afghanistan and further beyond to Central Asia. With this gimmick in mind, the Indians are planning to invest in the Iranian port of Chabahar, which provides then a land route to Afghanistan circumventing Pakistan much to the Indian relief, however at the cost of much more economical direct land route from Pakistan. Ironically, the Indians have no one but themselves to blame for this logistical encumbrance they brought upon themselves. The Indian dreams of a regional hegemonic status is driving their desire to challenge the logistical ground realities and compete directly with the Chinese investments in the Pakistani port of Gawader and the Chinese-Pakistani Economic Corridor which pains India to the extreme. The Chinese direct investments of 46 billion US dollars not only revives the ailing, war torn Pakistani economy, but also  put the country rite back on the economic map of the Asia Pacific. The Indians investments to destabilize Pakistan thus yet again failed to bear fruit, much to the dismay of the Indian spy agency RAW(Research and Analysis Wing).

The Indian desperate initiatives to circumvent Pakistan through the Persian route is not only unnatural but if materialized, will ultimately benefit the Chinese designs of the revival of the "New Silk Route". On the other hand if Pakistan can give the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia a rebuke by not sending the Pakistani troops for the war at Yemen, irrespective of extreme and unprecedented Arabian pressure, Pakistanis can very well put some sense into the Iranians if they decide to go against the natural alliance it has with the Pakistanis. Pakistani state is better off neglecting the porous borders with Iran infested with international narcotics smugglers and happy letting Iran handle that mess for them. Pakistani conscious support or lack of it is a detrimental factor for Iran in its sectarian war in middle east at the same time. For now, Pakistan is holding loads lot of Arabian funded sectarian trouble not allowed to be flown into Iran for there exists a strong desire within Pakistan to maintain its natural alliance with Iran. It won't be possible for the Pakistanis to do the same if the Indo-Persian alliance threatens the Pakistani strategic interests.

Both India and Iran aspires for regional hegemony which is evident from their respective strategic maneuvers in the region. Pakistan on the other hand, rite in their middle only wants to concentrate on self development and strengthening her domestic potency while its geography presents a strategic gift of regional influence. The Chinese are putting all their bets on Pakistan by investing in the Pakistani economy and infrastructure for their own benefit, becoming a direct stake holder in the security and stability of Pakistan. The Chinese are out there flexing their muscles for the first time in the Asia Pacific region and will do everything in their power to secure their interests. Pakistanis are all out to facilitate China in this regard while the Pakistani economy will flourish as a result.

Indians under Modi regime are trying to reinvent the wheel after loosing billions and more of Indian tax payer's money put out to engulf Pakistani state in a fire which was designed to destroy it, However, the Pakistanis proved resilient enough not only to sustain the Indian fueled fire but also fight it ferociously telling the Indians now directly to their face, either to back off or face the blow back.
                         

Changing Dynamics Of Counterinsurgency(COIN) at Pakistan

US General commanding the coalition forces at Afghanistan, Stanley McChrystal, while visiting the Pakistani side in Swat in 2009 stated that, he wished for his officers and men under his command to learn COIN from the Pakistani Army. What Pakistan Army has achieved domestically regards COIN under the nature and gravity of the insurgency, most modern Armies of the world can only dream about. It took them 4500 men with the ratio of every one officer giving up his life after eight of their soldiers in a span of 12 years to achieve these statistics. This ratio is still applicable and in process with no other Army in recorded history has even come close to these numbers. It is the highest ratio of officers to men killed in any war around the globe in modern history. The resolve of the Pakistani Army is still intact and heads high. Swat is the feather in the cap of Pakistani Army COIN. The Swat model of COIN is in the process of successful implementation all over the insurgents infested areas of Pakistan. This internationally acclaimed COIN model in the scenic valleys up north in the Nuclear Armed Islamic Republic is the showcase of Pakistani Army which it wants to shine in all times to come, not succumbing to any relapse like elsewhere in the world.

Pakistani COIN was based upon the so called 3 D policy of the Pakistani state, which are Dialogue, Deterrence and Development. All three prongs in respective order were successfully implemented at Swat bringing it close to an ultimate successful COIN model. However, the fear of relapse still haunts the minds of senior Pakistani Army officials who are over ensuring the last transition to civilian administration to be perfect, in an imperfect world. The onus of Pakistan Army Swat success model goes essentially to the sacrifices of the Officers and soldiers laying their lives and limbs for a cause they "now believe in". The mass shift in the attitudes of the Pakistani Military came after loss of thousands of comrades by the hands of home grown extremist militants originally created as a result of the USA led Afghan Jihad fully supported by the Pakistani State. Pakistani state suffered by the hands of this Frankenstein they created with the US money to fight the Afghan Jihad. These militant Jihad introduced and indoctrinated by the US-Pakistan alliance gave birth to the Global Ideological Mercenaries which most recently reemerged as ISIS or Daai'sh after a decade long war against their predecessors the Al Qaeda.

Pakistani Army sooner then later realized the menace they had helped to create and after suffering critical blows decided to eliminate them once and for all. They fought a tedious war spread over a decade to present the success story like Swat and elsewhere. Marginalizing the terrorists, the Pakistani Army is now emphasizing on intelligence based targeted operations(IBOs) and winning hearts and minds(WHAM) all across the troubled parts of the country. The remaining few concentrations of the militant Taliban network are being cleared with impunity followed by development works in such areas directed at flourishing the local economy. This addresses the core issue of social deprivation which essentially generates insurgency and help it thrive. Its not as simple as it sounds and hats off to the Pakistani Military for remaining steadfast in the face of all odds and adversities. The Pakistani insurgency is being funded by India through Afghanistan as publicly acknowledged by the former US secretary of defense, Chuck Hegel. In the face of such hostility the kind of defiance being displayed by the Pakistani Military is outstanding while the Pakistani State is largely refraining from responding in kind to the Indians. The Indians justify within themselves their proxy war on Pakistan through funding the Taliban as giving the Pakistanis a taste of their own medicine that they gave to the Indians for over two decades in Kashmir. However, its fire with which the Indians are playing with, which will reach their own backyard if they don't avoid their clandestine black ops in Pakistan through funding the Pakistani Taliban in Afghanistan. This realization is being spread through the Pakistani Military diplomatic prong at Afghanistan and the US.

Winning hearts and minds(WHAM)-Pakistan Army Officer helping a boy drink during COIN Operations in the Tribal Areas of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan

 The diplomatic issues of US withdrawal from Pakistan and stability in Afghanistan are critical for the success of COIN at Pakistan. The Pakistani Army realizing the importance of these diplomatic priorities is actively involved in diplomatic maneuvers aimed at strengthening the Afghan State capacity building in a pleasant aberration from the past. This approach is well acclaimed by all the regional powers including China and the US. Pakistani Army views the Afghan stability as key to its COIN operations at home. A change of attitudes directed at supporting the Afghan government, unlike the past is being noticed by the Pakistani Military through the frequent visits of the Pakistani Army Chief to Kabul. It's a step in the rite direction, where Pakistani Military hopes to neutralize the absconder militants hiding in Afghanistan through cooperation and joint operations with Afghan National Army. A lot is still desired in this aspect, but the direction adopted by the Pakistani State under its Army's advice holds the key to the future of counterinsurg
ency in Pakistan. The fight goes on ...                       

Should Pakistan Join The War At Yemen?

It's a classic catch 22 situation for the only nuclear armed Islamic Republic on the globe. Saudis being both patron and beneficiary of the Islamic country with one of the strongest military force among them all, are pushing the Nawaz Administration pretty hard to put Pakistani boots on Yemeni grounds. Nawaz Sharif owes the House of Saud big time for getting him off the hook on many occasions, especially once he was removed through a coup led by Pervaiz Musharraf. It was the the House of Saud which secured his release from the military and gave him shelter in their homeland and allowed him to flourish in Saudi Arabia during exile. As well as that, Saudi Arabia houses Makkah and Madina, are two of  holiest and most revered sites by Muslims of all sects unanimously thus putting Nawaz Sharif under more pressure to conform by the majority population that have staunch Islamic views,

However, in Pakistan among the influential military and civilian bureaucratic and political elite, the situation at Yemen is largely seen as continuation of the "sectarian conflict" between Sunnis led by Saudi Arabia and Shiites led by Iran. Iran being a large neighbour of Pakistan having direct influence on almost 20% of the Pakistani Shiite population can cause some serious trouble in Pakistan. The influence of Iran in Pakistan through the Pakistani Shiite population has been cultivated over decades of agenda driven through Persian hegemonic desires all over the Middle East. That is why the Pakistani intelligentsia views meddling in Yemen directly as counterproductive and dangerous for Pakistan.


With the emerging threat and ruthless maneuvers of ISIS juju(Daai'sh), which is ulterior Sunni militants organization targeting the Shiite Muslims in particular, a bloody sectarian war at Greater Middle East is already on the horizon. Iran is actively participating in this war against Daai'sh, while Arabian countries led by KSA provided the funds which resulted in the terror network now known as ISIS. Russia and China openly favoured Iran and Bashar Al Assad regime throughout the Syrian crises. USA replied in clandestine manner, allowing circumstances and fabricating situations which led to the redrawing the very map of Middle East. Its a reply which can be termed as a feat for the US for now, accomplished without putting boats on ground but by using KSA's money and Israeli technical support.

The geopolitical quagmire known as Middle East requires books to be understood, yet it revolves around the dirty global oil politics and Shiite-Sunni sectarian conflict with Iran and KSA on the forefront respectively. Iranians are largely driven by its glorious empirical past with Persian hegemony which they are trying to transform into modern day Middle East by maintaining and supporting proxies around the region. KSA on the other hand is driven by the desire of the House of Saud to maintain their lineage of the kingdom guaranteed by the USA for maintaining their "Petro Dollar" as the most dominant global trading currency.

Pakistan is fighting a "War Within" of its own for more then a decade now. The fire in Pakistan is being fueled by her enemies to keep the nuclear armed Islamic republic at bay. It is not in the interest of some regional powers for Pakistan to find civil peace and stability, resulting in the country looking outwards with its strong military, armed with strategic arsenal. Pakistan largely suffers from both the Iranian and Saudi led sectarian proxy armed conflict on the Pakistani land. This conflict substitutes in spreading the cancer of religious extremism and intolerance resulting in terrorism in Pakistan. Both the Shiite and Sunni influential population with in Pakistan understands the precarious nature of the conflict as such. KSA however, houses the holy sites of Islam which needs to be visited as a religious compulsion for Muslims from all sects. Pakistani Armed Forces have been historically committed to the safety of the holy land and in this regard maintains a presence in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia since 1970s till date. This deep rooted relationship between Pakistan and KSA can not be ignored which in the minds of Pakistani military, centrally revolves around the protection of the holy lands housing the "Kaaba". On the other hand, upon her independence from the British "Raj", Iran was the first sovereign country to recognize and create diplomatic relations with Pakistan. The bilateral Pak-Iran relationship thrived even in the cold war. Pakistan supported Iran in the Iran-Iraq war. Iran is by far the most friendly neighbour after China that Pakistan can claim to have. Iran also possess effective influence in Pakistan through her Shiite population. Therefore by putting Pakistani boats on Syrian soil with the Saudi backed Yemeni regime and Iranian backed Houthi militia at war there would be highly ill advised. At the same time the protection of the holy lands in KSA are a historic responsibility taken over by Pakistan and established over more then three decades of military presence in the Kingdom of Saudi. This responsibility affords Pakistan a dominant regional role strengthening her geopolitical value and bringing dividends to the Pakistani economy as a whole. The role of the Pakistani Armed Forces and nationals in KSA should be thus allowed to continue and flourish in the best interest of the Pakistani economy and religious ideology and their role within the conflict should not be influenced by the personal agendas of separate religious ideologies or individuals.                                               

Modern International Relations-Where All Is Fair-Yet Its Not

China may be the biggest investor in the US economy, yet US is and will do everything in its strategic influence to stop and control it's rise as a global power, challenging the uni-polar world. India and China may trade up to 70 billion US Dollars mutually every year, but India would take every opportunity provided by the US, Australia and Japan to become a strategic counterweight to China to halt its rise. China as a compulsion to diversify and drive its mega economy may trade with US, India and Japan, but would avail every opportunity to increase her strategic influence through strengthening and modernizing the military. In this stranger then ever world we live in today, co-operation in trade and commerce are the key for the survival of national economies. However, competition among nation-sates is demarcated by the race of strategic influence through military strength and deployment of proxies. Proxies give the advantage to deny any ownership by a nation-state while it may effect the bilateral trade with the targeted state.

Controlling and shaping public perception through media is the tool matured to derive desired objectives over the years by both state and non-state actors. Originally started by Goebbels in the Nazi Germany, modern propaganda is now acclaimed as public relations, has reached its puberty. Telling a lie and making people believe it is much easier then giving it to them straight. This is the reality in practice by various state machinery's information and public relations outfits. There are alternative views and access to reality in the modern electronic age, but, they are termed as just that, i-e, alternative views or conspiracy theories at best. What to believe and what not to? It comes down to the official version of state's mouthpieces from where it all started. Access and control of information and information technology, holds the keys to modern International Relations in large context. In this scenario keeping trade ties alive while competing in strategic spheres are the dynamics very much in practice in state to state relationships. Such a setting also suits the capitalist based global economy being run by the global corporate system to their advantage.

Karl Marx, may very well be right, when he declares economy as the driving force behind international system, however, its the realist school of thought led by Thucydides, which made USA, the sole superpower in a world where everything sells in US dollars. Power politics leads to economic prowess. Strategic influence is the name of the race, which is essential to all nation-states economic interests, and which must continue if one needs to grow in stature hence riches. However, for the flow of capital to be directed at desired destination and keeping the global economy flowing through this capital at the same time keep the profits growing, trade ties are encouraged and kept as much as possible away from the strategic competition between states.

In this diabolical setting of modern day trade and race for strategic influence, the nation-states follow an unwritten code of conduct. Proxy wars are the most favourite way globally to settle scores. Show of military force to derive desired results is the trend. Access and use of military technology gives the strategic leverage to any nation-state in its sphere while continuing trade ties irrespective of the strategic competition between any two states is the norm accepted by major players in the international system. It's the most rare combination of "Marxism-Realism" as a theory in practice side by side where realism may have the last say. Hence, the competition for strategic influence between various states will continue. In the end economy drives the strategic might of a state, but the strategic might itself dictates the strength of that economy. The make-up of the world may be modern but anarchy still defines the international systems. This modernity is a by-product of capitalism.  Where a complex mix of non-state actors keep the system up and running as such in their own benefit. In this international system all is fair but in reality couldn't be further from the truth..