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Monday 10 June 2013

Pakistani Offensive Against Talibans- The Chess Board of Tirah

Tirah Valley is located at the Afghanistan Pakistan border. The valley consists of picturesque plains and majestic mountains which strategically borders three tribal agencies of Pakistan's FATA ( Federally Administered Tribal Region) besides Afghanistan. The significance of this particular Valley and hold over it's mountain is critical for any particular group in order to control the move of various kinds at Afghan Pakistan border. Tirah forms the nodal point for Orakzai, Khyber, Kurram Agencies and is linked to both Afghanistan and Pakistan via Kohat FR and Peshawer's land routes. Tirah is also the route linking Pakistan and Afghanistan with the infamous "Tora Bora" mountains where Osama Bin Laden reportedly was based for a long time. The smuggling corridor is valuable for any party having complete or partial control over these rugged terrain. The militant group controlling the valley have made fortunes in the past facilitating the smugglers, Al Qaeeda and Talibans. Tirah serves as an alternative route from south and north Waziristan via Afghanistan into Pakistani main land as well, in the presence of Pakistani Military controlling all entries and exits of SWA (South Waziristan Agency) and NWA (North Waziristan Agency) to and from Pakistani main land. SWA and NWA are the traditional home grounds of both Afghan and Pakistani Talibans along-with Al Qaeeda and various other international militant and terrorists organizations. A ground route out with logistics accompanied to launch any operation, hence is critical for all these militant outfits, specially for those out of favour with the Pakistani establishment and seeking undetected entry into Pakistan. This is where the Valley of Tirah comes into play. The fight for dominance at Tirah hence is raging since two decades between mainly two groups of the area. These are the Pakistani state aligned Ansar ul Islam (AI) and the Taliban affiliated Lashkar e Islam (LI) lead by Mangal Bagh. The strategic importance of the Tirah Valley is also hence increased, ten folds for the Pakistani military busy in it's "war within" against the Pakistani Talibans (TTP i-e, Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan). In the most recent ongoing offensive by the Pakistani military at Tirah to capture and hold ground lost by AI, more than two dozen fatal casualties were sustained to include three officers in last 40 days alone.

Tirah Valley with it's high plains of Maidan and the mountains surrounding them possess Cold War era sophisticated trench systems on tactical heights all around. Pakistani Talibans in their anti state drive backed Mangal Bagh's LI to take over these heights around 2009-10. This was the time Mangal Bagh, originally a Pakistani state stooge placed to control and contain the Talibans at the suburbs of Peshawar fell from ISI's graces when his militant network became a Frankenstein threatening no place else, but Peshawar it self from Bara area of Khyber, the Mangal Bagh stronghold at that time. Around 2007 Pakistani state took on Mangal Bagh in a bloody battle which forced the latter to retreat towards the Tirah valley. As a result Mangal Bagh forged an anti state alliance with the Pakistani Talibans who in turn supported him for an offensive at Tirah where AI was holding strong ground in post US/NATO invasion of Afghanistan. Talibans had high stakes at Tirah due to obvious reasons and were already wary of Pakistani state aligned AI. In three years those proceeded, the LI and TTP systematically assassinated the AI leadership, while creating divide among the rival sub groups on ethnic/tribal grounds. The LI and TTP successfully overtook the Maidan plains and mountains surrounding it along-with the stated tactical heights. ISI in a bid to maintain Pakistani state significance in the strategic area supported the AI through limited ground and aerial operations. However, these half cooked practices blew back in the shape of heavy losses to men and material at all levels. Emphasis was than laid on restricting the LI and TTP at Tirah heights, in which the Pakistani state partially achieved success. The price of these operations in flesh and material both was much higher than reported in the press/media.

In the most recent drive to regain control and hit TTP hard under their belly while, completely isolating them and than destroying it comprehensively, the Pakistani military leadership led by General Ashfaq Kayani came up with the master plan to check mate the TTP at the chess board of Tirah. Historically, whenever Pakistani military opens an all out offensive against the militants, they abandon posts and flee into Afghanistan, which is practically ungoverned foreign country, out of bound as such for the Pakistani State's war machinery. These militants than operate freely from their Afghan bases only latter to resurface at Pakistan as and when the offensive expires.
(Same holds true for US/ISAF offensive across the border where the Taliban choose to retreat into either SWA or NWA)
However, this time around there is a "twist" in the story for the Talibans upon whose tail, the Pakistani military boots are squeezing hard. The pressure is so very intense that even after two weeks of the killing of the TTP second in command Wali ur Rehamn in a US drone strike, the TTP is unable to reply even as a symbolic attack, but is restricted to media balderdash  alone. The supposed aces employed by Pakistani military are ISI controlled non state militant groups, engaging the TTP within Afghanistan. These groups are waging a war against the TTP who they consider to be sponsored by the anti Pakistani elements and states such as India of which substantial proofs are reportedly held with the ISI. The notorious Lashkar e Taiba (LeT) now called Jamat ud Dawah's  highly trained and motivated militants along-with the AI men thirsty for the blood of LI for vendetta are operating freely at Afghanistan being non state actors creating serious trouble for the Talibans. Within the Pakistani borders in particular at the Tirah valley the Pakistani military is busy in all out offensive which is likely to throw the TTP and LI into Afghan territory where the militants of LeT and AI are already positioned to take them head on. For the first time in the history of this conflict the TTP is surrounded from three sides (North and East covered by the Pakistani military and west by the LeT and AI). on the fourth direction i-e, south and south west lies the inaccessible Tora Bora mountain ranges, which itself is death penalty to climb without the proper high altitude equipment lacked by the TTP and LI. The gaps are being plugged by the Pakistani military and affiliated tribesmen who are anti Taliban because of the latter's bloody thirst of power for which they are ravaging the tribal areas of Pakistan while what is now widely believed by the Pakistanis to be a foreign hostile agenda with TTP as their pawns.

If this game goes in accordance with the plan of GHQ at Rawalpindi, the TTP is in for a disaster like none before ........................................ Pakistan Army have got many scores to settle in this battle.

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