China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) - Issues and Impacts

Sino-Pak relations are laid on the foundations of an historical friendship based on the need and desire of mutual well being and entwined national interests of both countries. The Pakistani government, led by General Pervaiz Musharraf started marketing the idea of a China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the Chinese in 2004. Musharraf proposed the development and use of the Gawader deep sea port in Pakistan by China and proposed to link it through the existing land route via the Karakorum highway to mainland China. The idea was bought by the Chinese due to it being the most accessible and shortest possible route for the energy hungry Chinese economy to the Middle Eastern oil market. Over time, subsequent Pakistani governments kept on pursuing the development of this corridor even negating US pressure. It was largely made possible by the popular support the Chinese enjoy in Pakistan and similar enthusiasm for Pakistan within China.

                               

                          
                                                     THE NEW SILK ROUTE

The change of leadership in China, with President Xi Jinping came into power on 15 November 2012 was faced with the immediate challenge to revive the Chinese economy suffering from the global economic crisis and slow domestic growth rate. President Xi, gained huge public support due to his policies and reforms and is now known as "The Red Prince" in China . Amongst various other initiatives that addressed the issues faced in the Chinese Republic, he also spearheaded the idea of the revival of "New Silk Route" or the so called "Iron Silk Road". China also created financial institutions to invest in this mega intercontinental infrastructure venture in a bid to revive the Chinese economy. The Chinese plans perfectly suit the Euro-Asian economies and the rise of Asia Pacific in the global economic order as the international business enterprise of the future. The CPEC fits perfectly into this puzzle linking the Pakistani economy with the future of global business.  

                                  

President Xi Jingping visited Pakistan in April 2015 and signed a deal, investing 46 billion US Dollars in the Pakistani infrastructure development projects with the CPEC in the forefront. This is the biggest foreign investment in the Pakistani economy since its creation in 1947. This speaks volumes of the extent of good relations between the two states in comparison with the uncertain formal alliance with the USA. The United states spent only a meager amount in Pakistan in return for throwing them into the fire of the so called "War On Terror". The war resulted in amounting to almost 300 billion US Dollar losses to the Pakistani economy as per Pakistani parliamentary sources.

The map shown below by "The Wall Street Journal", compares this scenario with the original silk roads projects of the CPEC sold by the Musharraf government to China

SILK ROADS CONNECTING COMPLETE PAKISTAN WITH CHINA

This original plan presented by the Pakistani government to China in 2004 catered for all five provinces of Pakistan. The plan took into consideration the consolidation of Pakistani federation through the CPEC and also the existing road network availability for speedy operations of the economic corridor. The plan has no objection from any of the stake holders in Pakistan and all the routes illustrated in the map already exist on ground in the country as national highways, requiring minimal efforts for their development into international trade routes with economic zones on the way. The plan is inclusive of Pakistan's complete existing economic nerve centers as presented below.  

The biggest restriction to the proposal however is the present central Punjab dominated Nawaz Sharif regime in Pakistan. The government continuously finds grounds for dispute in the project and instead they are proposing a singular route linking an already congested central Punjab as the main route of the CPEC as shown below. It is a strategy which revolves around the shortsighted personal business interests of the present Punjabi businessmen in power. To the public, they are selling security concerns as the reason of this re routing, but in fact it is a bid to build further economic zones in central Punjab on lands mostly owned by the ruling elite of Punjab.  

                         

  Nawaz Sharif Government Fiasco Plan- Negating 800 KM short route for the greed of more economic zones in already congested (industrialized) central Punjab which will seriously harm the  environment in Punjab hence Pakistan while making the entire project controversial 

Dotted red route is the shortest and easiest access to China, being negated as main route by the Nawaz Sharif government stating security concerns as the reasons.

This particular policy seems likely to fade out soon under Pakistani domestic pressure as it requires more of a shift of attitudes rather than routes. The geographical narrow width of Pakistan makes the original plan of the CPEC a more viable development. Central Punjab is already linked with that route through highly developed existing motorways. It is well known that businessmen are unrestricted for trading through the existing brilliantly developed communication network. It is more than likely the the Punjabi elite in power will eventually be made to realize this by the present military leadership especially if recent examples of the influence that the military have on the present government are taken in to consideration. They are in  position to do business through the CPEC through an elaborate infrastructure . Their greed to get more can only harm the Pakistani federation which is not acceptable to the powerful military of Pakistan. A specialized force is already being formed by the Pakistani Army under a General Officer to address the exaggerated security concerns related to the safety of the CPEC  

The CPEC will bring Pakistan on to the center stage of global geopolitics as the country will become the southern corridor to mainland China and its "Iron Silk Roads" project linking the world to Asia Pacific. It is after all, Asia Pacific in which lies the future of global commerce and trade. Its the beginning of the new era not only for Pakistan, but for entire region associated with these trade corridors. 

New Era In Afghanistan-Pakistan (AFPAK) Relations

Just couple of years ago nobody could ever imagine that the Pakistani premier intelligence service ISI and its Afghan counterpart would be working together to beat a foe created by the earlier in association with the American CIA during the "Cold War" era. Pakistan hosts the biggest ever Afghan refugee population around the globe and is termed the most hospitable nation for Afghan nationals in exile by the UNO surveys. However, the support Pakistan afforded to the Taliban and the repression by this ethnic religious extremist organization against the Northern Afghan and Hazara  population caused a huge backlash and resentment among Afghans directed at their neighbours, Pakistan. India in their traditional rivalry with Pakistan, exploited this resentment of Afghan population and spared no efforts in post 9/11 Afghanistan to further broaden this lack of trust between both nations, in particular between AFPAK security institutions.    

With the Elections of Ashraf Ghani as President of Afghanistan and change of guard at the Pakistani security establishment, the overdue realization was finally met by both neighbouring countries that it is naturally convenient for them to work together for the peace and prosperity of their indigenous populations. Any outside or inside impartial observer would note that the strategic interests of both these countries are best served in working together as partners. This however, required a major shift in the thinking patterns and re-alignment of priorities by the security apparatuses of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The deal of cooperation between both countries powerful intelligence outfits signifies the agreement on this re-alignment of priorities and opens a new chapter in the history of bilateral cooperation between both the Muslim States.

BONE OF CONTENTION

Its not an easy bargain for either of the countries intelligence arms. Pakistani ISI in response to this alliance needs to keep a tight leash on the Afghan Taliban who have been their traditional allies. They need to force them to reconcile with the Kabul government and reach a workable power sharing and governance model/agreement with them. Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) also needs to choke the logistics support of Afghan Taliban from the Pakistani side and work in cooperation with Afghan National Intelligence Directorate in sorting out a permanent peace accord between the Afghan government and the Taliban through open and clandestine maneuvering. Easier said then done, the job of Afghan intelligence and security apparatus is no less daunting. They would have to target the Indian funded Pakistani Taliban mercenaries operating from the Afghan soil in a u-turn to their previous policies which was in support of the Indian intelligence agency RAW. Its not only a stab in the heart of Indian intelligence designs to isolate and destroy Pakistan, but also a major defeat in a war they funded with billions of Indian tax payers money. This makes it all the more difficult for the Afghans who were being heavily funded through these Indian designs against Pakistan seeking regional hegemony for themselves. Besides the capacity of Afghan National Army to take on the Pakistani Taliban mercenaries is also a question bothering many across the border. Its a new path both neighbours are embarking upon which is filled with more thorns, less petals. 

Having said all that, under a genuine sincere partnership of both Afghan and Pakistani security and political leadership forged upon natural alliance of shared strategic interests, all above is highly achievable. Keeping in view the "shared rich cultural history" between both countries less the animosity over the Pakistani support to Taliban under the compulsions of their past security doctrines of strategic depth, and the resultant Afghan shift towards India aside, the deal of cooperation between both the neghbouring countries is naturally sealed. Afghanistan being a land locked country, depends on the easiest direct trading route to the international seas via Pakistan. Pakistan obliges Afghanistan by providing this transit facility historically, but fails to make use of the goodwill created thus by supporting proxies like the Afghan Taliban. This scenario is changing fast under the present arrangements between the powerful spy agencies of both countries. Pakistani security establishment realizes that their past policy of supporting the Taliban proxies forced the government in Kabul to tilt towards the enemies of Pakistani State in last couple of decades. This in turn fueled the fire of terrorism at Pakistani mainland through the international ideological mercenaries funded by the said enemies of Pakistani State operating from the Afghan soil.

This dramatic change of stance also signifies a large shift in the Pakistani thinking, where they feared that the planned 2014 US withdrawal from Afghanistan would plunge that country back into a civil war. This would have left Pakistan to deal with Taliban again as a recognized military force at Afghanistan to deal with. The Karzai regime was largely seen as a US puppet at Afghanistan only controlling parts of the country, that too with the US/ISAF military support. Although nothing much has changed in that perception, but the transition of power at Kabul and the change in Pakistani security dynamics under General Raheel Sharif, the new all powerful Army Chief arose a desire in Pakistan to support the moderate Kabul regime over the religious extremist Taliban. Pakistan hurts badly due to the menace of religious intolerance and extremism. Thus, under the stewardship of General Raheel, Pakistan embarked upon the journey of moderation and tolerance through strict laws against the hate mongers domestically and mending relations with estranged past international allies.

The Afghanistan-Pakistan alliance in the offing, reaching its full potential will surely benefit from the dream of the revival of the old Silk route. Afghanistan can be naturally linked to the new silk route via Pakistan and Central Asia and become the part of the plans laid out by the Chinese for revival of trade and commerce in Euro-Asia. The Chinese are willing to invest in the infrastructure of the trade routes connecting Asia pacific with Central Asia, EU and Russia through the land routes.
This partnership between both countries can only benefit the population living in the complete region ushering them into an era of peace and prosperity.                      

       

INDIAN FAILURE TO BURN PAKISTAN

In a rare move, the Pakistani Army Official spokesperson conveyed the utter dismay and serious concern of the Pakistani army top brass over the involvement of Indian spy agencies in destabilizing Pakistan on multifarious fronts. Although such talks are very much part of the drawing room gossips all around Pakistan, but the official confirmation and displeasure shown indicates a shift in the Pakistani defense policy towards the particular issue. With the Afghan endgame from the US perspective and the success of Pakistani Military in curbing home grown terror networks funded by the so called Indian cultural centers strategically located all along the Pakistan Afghanistan border inside Afghanistan, the shift in balance of power on the ground is expected to tilt in favour of the Pakistan Military. USA is handing over combat equipment worth in billion of dollars used in Afghanistan to the Pakistani Military in recognition of the said tilt in the balance of power. Indians irrespective of spending billions of dollars in funding the clandestine operations against the Pakistani interests through Pakistani Taliban from Afghanistan have failed to gain the US confidence as a potent player who could handle the region. The Chinese vote of confidence on the other hand is naturally inclined towards Pakistan.

The next move on the Indian cards is to somehow circumvent Pakistan in reaching Afghanistan and further beyond to Central Asia. With this gimmick in mind, the Indians are planning to invest in the Iranian port of Chabahar, which provides then a land route to Afghanistan circumventing Pakistan much to the Indian relief, however at the cost of much more economical direct land route from Pakistan. Ironically, the Indians have no one but themselves to blame for this logistical encumbrance they brought upon themselves. The Indian dreams of a regional hegemonic status is driving their desire to challenge the logistical ground realities and compete directly with the Chinese investments in the Pakistani port of Gawader and the Chinese-Pakistani Economic Corridor which pains India to the extreme. The Chinese direct investments of 46 billion US dollars not only revives the ailing, war torn Pakistani economy, but also  put the country rite back on the economic map of the Asia Pacific. The Indians investments to destabilize Pakistan thus yet again failed to bear fruit, much to the dismay of the Indian spy agency RAW(Research and Analysis Wing).

The Indian desperate initiatives to circumvent Pakistan through the Persian route is not only unnatural but if materialized, will ultimately benefit the Chinese designs of the revival of the "New Silk Route". On the other hand if Pakistan can give the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia a rebuke by not sending the Pakistani troops for the war at Yemen, irrespective of extreme and unprecedented Arabian pressure, Pakistanis can very well put some sense into the Iranians if they decide to go against the natural alliance it has with the Pakistanis. Pakistani state is better off neglecting the porous borders with Iran infested with international narcotics smugglers and happy letting Iran handle that mess for them. Pakistani conscious support or lack of it is a detrimental factor for Iran in its sectarian war in middle east at the same time. For now, Pakistan is holding loads lot of Arabian funded sectarian trouble not allowed to be flown into Iran for there exists a strong desire within Pakistan to maintain its natural alliance with Iran. It won't be possible for the Pakistanis to do the same if the Indo-Persian alliance threatens the Pakistani strategic interests.

Both India and Iran aspires for regional hegemony which is evident from their respective strategic maneuvers in the region. Pakistan on the other hand, rite in their middle only wants to concentrate on self development and strengthening her domestic potency while its geography presents a strategic gift of regional influence. The Chinese are putting all their bets on Pakistan by investing in the Pakistani economy and infrastructure for their own benefit, becoming a direct stake holder in the security and stability of Pakistan. The Chinese are out there flexing their muscles for the first time in the Asia Pacific region and will do everything in their power to secure their interests. Pakistanis are all out to facilitate China in this regard while the Pakistani economy will flourish as a result.

Indians under Modi regime are trying to reinvent the wheel after loosing billions and more of Indian tax payer's money put out to engulf Pakistani state in a fire which was designed to destroy it, However, the Pakistanis proved resilient enough not only to sustain the Indian fueled fire but also fight it ferociously telling the Indians now directly to their face, either to back off or face the blow back.