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Thursday 12 June 2014

The Future of Terrorism In Pakistan-External Impacts

The Pakistani Taliban in particular the Mehsud faction have launched latest series of their terror strike on the Pakistani Public Installations, opportunity military and other soft targets as a revenge of the killing of their leader Hakim Ullah Mehsud in a US drone strike late last year. The Islamist extremist of Central Asia and Middle East origins are actively on board in this latest offensive in accordance with the past providing both the financial and manpower resources. It is also a fallout of the reluctant and cautious approach in handling the problem where the Pakistani military is playing the bad cop and the Nawaz Sharif government acting the good cop. The lack of political resolve in launching a decisive nation wide operation to cleanse this cancer of terrorism is evidently lacking with the Nawaz Sharif administration in charge. It's not as if the Pakistani security forces has the potential to achieve a cent per cent success in the aftermath of any such operation as the enemies are not beyond but within. However, any such operation will at best send the rats back to their sewers only to strike back in the darkness of the night, but it is that darkness which bothers the Nawaz regime. The Pakistani civilian government ascertains themselves in not a position to handle the political and economic mayhem which will result after hitting the bee hive as they see it. The Pakistani military is anxious to strike hard and avenge their fallen comrades which is in the larger interest for the Pakistani state security scenario. The regional and international stake holders are demanding to see some potent action to put the Pakistani house in order. The hostile segments to Pakistani state like the Afghan intelligence KHAD backed by the Indian RAW are consciously supporting the terror attacks in Pakistan owing to their own vested interests. A destabilized nuclear armed Pakistan is not in the interest of any nation globally. But a stabilized Pakistan properly utilizing her power potential would be the last wish of those fueling the fire at Pakistan. The design it seems is to present a scenario where Pakistan is kept hostage to the ongoing insurgency for foreseeable future while the hegemony of the neighboring India grows in influence and strength fast becoming a regional counterweight to China.

Pakistanis are most effectively tasting their own medicine when it comes to the onslaught brought upon to them by their own created militant networks originally targeting the Indian held Kashmir. After the all powerful dictator Pervez Musharraf took a U turn on the decades old Kashmir policy of Pakistan under the US pressure, the "Mujaheddin" created by the Pakistani security establishment for the "Kashmir Jihad" tuned into "International Ideological Mercenaries". These mercenaries are now up for hiring to the highest bidder, and in essence haunting their creators as Frankenstein. These same mercenaries are active in the People's Republic of China, particularly in the largest province of Xinjiang which borders not only Pakistan, but also Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and India. The strategic narrative of these proxy operations through the said "Islamic Ideological Mercenaries" in itself brings out the deductions to a thinking mind.


The province of Xinjiang at China borders eight different countries and hence provides China with eight different levers of exerting physical pressure to her neighbours which include India, with whom they have fought an all out war already. In this entire part of the world, Pakistan is the strongest ally Chinese could ever count on and hence the Sino-Pak bilateral ties are defined as "deeper than the seas". Chinese growth thus far seems to know no bounds practically worrying the current global powers of the west who have adopted India as a foster child being prepared to save them from the wrath of the Chinese global dominance. In this backdrop, the terror organizations of Pakistan and their mercenary capabilities are a dream come true for those who wants to keep the Chinese rise in a check while affording India the time and space to match the Chinese strength.

The Pakistani extremist groups are flourishing because of the inefficiency of the Pakistani administration to begin with going further to factors like foreign direct and indirect funding in particular at Afghanistan as handling grounds and lack of international joint mechanism to counter this onslaught.

Until there is an International Counter Intelligence network implemented by essentially China, Pakistan and the Central Asian Republics with the Russian blessings on ground, this cancer will keep on spreading. At the same time, some sense needs to talked into the Indians, who are playing with the fire not realizing the fact that the same can burn themselves in future too. If the Pakistanis under the Chinese auspices secretly decides to rehire the services of these "ideological mercenaries" and play tit for tat with the Indians to begin with, not only the earlier have much more potential but also experience to fight such a proxy war. In such a case these "Islamic Ideological Mercenaries" will find it an absolute pleasure to fight under the flag of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the only nuclear armed Muslim country with the strongest military among them all. India and Co under such a scenario won't last ten months keeping in view it's economy and demography compared to the more than a decade of punishment Pakistan has absorbed and continues to do so. China is also strong enough to sustain the mercenary assault, but if they decides to pay back in kind, the very integration of India would be at stake. The change in Russian moods and allegiances under the constantly and fast changing power dynamics of Asia after the Ukraine/Crimea episode, may also not favour India and Co like times of the past.

Unless all the Asian powers are willing to act together for the combined prosperous future of the biggest/most populous continent on the globe, the Pakistani terror network will spread systematically destroying everything in its influence keeping Asia busy in firefighting rather enjoying the perks of their enormous global potential. Peace is the only way forward...............................or else.........