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Thursday 26 May 2016

What Do We Need To Learn from China-Future of CPEC


While China embarks upon her 46 billion US Dollar investment/soft loan towards the Pakistan China Economic Corridor (CPEC), they have simultaneously also pledged a 62 billion US Dollar investment into Iran taking further steps towards the realization of the "Road and Belt" initiative of Chinese President Xi Jingping. At the same time China maintains an annual bilateral trade of more then 70 billion US dollars with India as per official figures of Indian government's Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics for the year 2014 alone with investments of almost 64 billion US dollars in India. (http://www.indianembassy.org.cn/DynamicContent.aspx?MenuId=97&SubMenuId=0) 
In his last visit to India, President Xi Jingping signed an investment of 20 billion US dollars in infrastructure development projects in India which are well under way. 
(http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-29249268)
Indian Prime Minister in response visited China and signed 24 different agreements of wide ranging co-operation with China worth around 10 billion US dollars.
(http://www.ndtv.com/cheat-sheet/24-agreements-signed-between-india-and-china-during-pm-modis-visit-763246)
 This indicates the growth of the bilateral relations between both the world's top growing economies. For China it's all good business and India is playing ball and reaping unlimited benefits for it's citizens. It also indicates that irrespective of fighting an all out war among themselves in 1962 and various other skirmishes and political brawls, both China and India are mature economies, which give priority to business foremost and setting aside traditional rivalries which may be competed on separate grounds. India's seriousness in improving bilateral relations with China are evident due to her principal stance in direct opposition of USA to support Chinese position on South China Sea issue. 

China is the biggest foreign debt holder of the US economy in the world. This practically manifests both Chinese and US economies as inter-dependent on each other. Irrespective of the realist school of thought's offensive aspirations about a war between the sole superpower of the world and the emerging super power that is US and China, the actual chances of any such encounter is almost non-existent. Both powers will remain engaged in a proxy cold conflict in a war for influence around the globe but will stop short of an open confrontation for that would mean the global economic meltdown which either countries can't afford. The current Chinese bilateral trade ties with the US stand at a staggering 103,159.2 million US dollars in 2016.
(https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html) 

China following its consistent policy initiative starting in 1999 called the "Go Global Strategy" has successfully diversified her investments around the world spearheaded by the Chinese flagship enterprises. These investments are equally distributed between the east and west making the host countries a partner with China in progress and trade which entails stakes of host countries and China embedded as one. An example is the recent Chinese investments in the UK worth 11.7 billion Pounds Sterling from 2005 to 2013 while China envisages another 105 billion Pounds Sterling in infrastructure development in the UK by 2025. 
 (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/501808f6-5b89-11e4-b68a-00144feab7de.html)    


The point of above debate and figures is to understand the phenomenon of making "Brand China" and the insight into the marketing of this brand around the world, promoting China's soft image in direct contradiction to her popular image fabricated by the western corporate media exploiting Chinese human rights atrocities within China. Chinese global business strategy is based on shared interests with partner countries which has recently focused on connecting Europe with the Asia Pacific region. The complete world acknowledges Asia Pacific to be the future of global business and China is using the huge amount of investment at her disposal to connect the future of global economy with Europe drastically curtailing dependence on sea routes which is predominantly controlled by the USA. China in one go is out to remodel the entire way of doing business, free of the superpower influences, cutting the US hegemony to size without any armed conflict. China has been thus far able to create this mega business empire by keeping business as business and a cup of tea as a cup of tea. Meaning, China strictly differentiates between trade relations and political rivalries at global stage and so far it is a marvelous success story. China seemingly remains oblivious of it's opposition's vocal critique on her controversial domestic and foreign policies, while continuing business as usual with the same countries. As a result China has been able to grow steadily and expand her influence in Euro-Asia in particular with an ever increasing hold on Africa.              


IRON SILK ROAD

Coming back to the CPEC, it is worth mentioning that the CPEC is just one of the important tentacles called the Southern Corridor of China's grand "One Belt One Road" initiative under President Xi Jingping. This planned, so called New Silk Route's southern corridor as shown in the above map (Blue Colour) is being built incorporating complete South East Asia, South Asia and Middle East linking it to Europe. While Pakistan remains the most important link of this route connecting the  deep sea port of Gawader to mainland China through CPEC, the same route includes India and Iran as a part of the southern corridor. It must be noted that China for this southern corridor alone has already pledged 128 billion US dollars in infrastructure investments in Iran, Pakistan and India amounting to 62, 46 and 20 billion US dollars respectively.



Having said that, it is only naive of the Pakistanis to pursue a policy of confrontation in it's region, may it be with India or Iran. The future of the entire region is linked to its economy which will be driven by trillions of dollars of Chinese investments in future off-course spearheaded by the CPEC. The CPEC and it's success is critical for Pakistan, it is the key to her survival on the international stage with China being the only remaining partner Pakistan has, which has any global influence. If Pakistan wishes CPEC to be a success as per the Chinese vision, then Pakistan must learn a lesson or two from China and revisit her personality driven reactionary policies. Pakistan requires to listen to the various think tanks it commissions and make more forums as such for formulating long standing policies, that must never be allowed to be tailored as per the whims of different personality driven objectives as is the practice in place in Pakistan. While Pakistani security concerns are genuine, they must not be allowed to overshadow the economic development in the region being undertaken by China as the CPEC as it's flagship. Pakistan will only gain strategic clout and economic influence over her neighbours by providing them a link to the CPEC through which they may be mutually connected as well. The resultant tariffs will provide the Pakistani economy with the much needed boost and it will all eventually fit in with the original designs of the principal sponsor of Pakistan, that is China. The CPEC's success depend upon regional co-operation, not confrontation. By providing ground access to neighbouring countries, Pakistan will only raise their direct stakes in the stability and security of Pakistan.    

THE MOST POWERFUL FORCE EVER KNOWN ON THIS PLANET IS HUMAN COOPERATION-A FORCE FOR CONSTRUCTION AND DESTRUCTION.
(Jonathan Haidt)         

    





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