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Tuesday 24 May 2016

Killing of Mullah Mansoor-Impact On Pakistan&Region


With the killing of the Taliban Commander Mullah Akhtar Mansoor in Pakistan by a US drone strike, the security calculus in the region will be slightly disturbed and move in the favour of forces unfriendly to Pakistan and it's influence in the region. It is said that Pakistan had substantial influence over Mullah Mansoor's actions, giving weight to the international perception that he was Pakistan's man. While Pakistan failed to bring Mullah Mansoor towards peace talks with the Afghan government in time. Subsequently the US through a drone strike ended his life while he was travelling from Iran into Pakistan, on his way to Afghanistan. Media reports suggest that Mullah Mansoor was living in Pakistan with a different identity and also held properties. It obviously indicates and validates the general perception that Pakistani intelligence had influence over Mullah Mansoor. On one hand, the killing of Mullah Mansoor has seriously curtailed the Pakistani influence on the Afghan Taliban, which was critical for bringing them to peace talks through the Quadrilateral Contact Group(QCG) comprising of US. Afghanistan, China and Pakistan. On the other hand, a huge question marks is put over the Pakistani states role in providing refuge to international terrorists.

Under the current security policy of Pakistan, the Pakistani state is serious in playing its major role to broker peace between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan government in Kabul, which is supported by the international community being the closest example of an organized state governance entity acceptable on the international stage. However, there are two factors at play in sabotaging this policy of Pakistan. Foremost is the Indian-Afghan intelligence alliance working ferociously to counter the Pakistani influence in Afghanistan for which they are willing to go to any extent. Secondly, Pakistan's own house does not seem to be in order, where border control is loose and obtaining residence in Pakistan using money is child's play for anyone, in particular for Afghan nationals, who are living and working in Pakistan and use Pakistani passports to travel and work abroad. Playing the double game won't help Pakistan anymore as no one can ride in two boats for too long.

The first reason for sabotaging Pakistani efforts for peace in Afghanistan, which was spearheaded by the powerful Pakistani Army Chief himself is a result of a game to obtain strategic influence by two arch rivals in South Asia. The second reason is a mix of corruption, inefficiency, lack of ground checks by Pakistani government organizations but above all the cost of  the Pakistani hospitality that was given to the Afghans ever since the cold war. (Also read "Cost of Hospitality" http://whatholdsthefuture.blogspot.com/2012/07/cost-of-hospitality.html )

It is clearly evident that Pakistan promised the world community more then it could deliver once they took upon themselves to bring the Afghan Taliban to the table for peace talks and make them agree to long standing peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan bargained for more then they could handle with its security forces already stretched to their limits domestically fighting an insurgency. The kind of influence Pakistan once exerted over the Afghan Taliban was lost in majority if not in totality the day the Pakistani state provided military bases to the US Forces which attacked Taliban governed Afghanistan post 9/11. The same phenomenon resulted in the creation of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) who waged a war within Pakistan targeting the Pakistani state for providing logistic support to the US for attacking Afghanistan. This "war within" bled Pakistan almost dry. Pakistan played the price of siding with the international community led by US post 9/11 through hundreds and thousands of human casualties and billions of dollars of loss to her economy. Under this duress and for the fear of total collapse Pakistan unwittingly decided not to crack down on the Afghan Taliban ,whose loss of support meant an uncontrollable situation in Pakistan. Pakistani security establishments wrongfully calculated that the Afghan Taliban would contain the Pakistani Taliban fighting the Pakistani state from Afghanistan and would also provide them leverage of strategic control in Afghanistan where India was making an unprecedented ingress. The Pakistani state could have maintained their control on the Afghan Taliban without supporting them. This is clear because of the economic and logistical dependency they have always had on Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban literally did nothing to contain the Pakistani Taliban fighting a war of attrition with Pakistan. However, the Afghan Taliban used Pakistani grounds to acquire logistics support to wage a war against the US/ISAF in Afghanistan making Pakistan look like an accomplice in the crime in the eyes of the international community. India cashed upon this situation and on one hand supported the Pakistani Taliban financially waging a war in Pakistan from Afghanistan while on the other side strengthening their hold in Afghanistan by providing legitimate financial and technical support to the Afghan state and in the process, gaining the trust of the Afghans.

The Pakistani state, in a reactionary policy ,seems to have conducted a damage control exercise by making sincere efforts in bringing the Afghan Taliban to terms for striking an enduring peace deal with Afghan government. The current security establishment led by Gen Raheel Sharif and his Intelligence Chief Gen Rizwan (DG ISI) believed that a stable Afghanistan is highly in the interest of Pakistan for which all out efforts were made by them in the last couple of years only to be blunted by the Indian-Afghan intelligence alliance which is trusted much more by the Americans in comparison to their Pakistani counterparts for obvious reasons.

Having said that, the killing of Mullah Mansoor in essence resembles loss of just another pawn in the game. Pawns are there to be sacrificed as others are present to replace their position. However, this game in the long run can only bring disastrous results for the entire region as playing with fire has hazardous consequences.

Moving forward Pakistan is left with very limited choices where they may retain relevance in the international community by co-operating to control and put a leash on the Afghan Taliban with the same ferocity they are taking upon the Pakistani Taliban.

Pakistan still holds the keys to the landlocked Afghanistan providing them with the easiest, economical and most workable access to the rest of the world. Playing upon this strategical advantage and being the bread basket of Afghanistan, Pakistan can still repair it's ties with the country and at some stage in the future by providing land access to India into Afghanistan on favourable terms, become a permanent partner in regional progress and a key element in the regional economy.                              

        

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